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The Long-Term Consequences of Conflict and Displacement: Measuring Differences in Education and Nutrition in Afghanistan
Craig Loschmann November 28, 2014
Introduction • In 2013, the number of people forcibly displaced reached a record high of 51.2 million.
– Nearly two-thirds are displaced within their own countries.
• In most cases displacement, both externally and internally, is protracted over many years.
– It is not the short-term effects that should be of sole concern, but also the long-term consequences.
• This study investigates the long-term consequences of conflict and displacement by inquiring how the younger generations located within displaced households may fare in their particular circumstances.
– Compare the differences in outcomes arguably crucial for the healthy development of children between households that have experienced internal displacement and those that have not.
– As a way to infer future livelihood prospects of the child, these outcomes relate to human capital formation concentrating on both education and nutrition.
Context • The instability that has plagued Afghanistan since the late 1970s has led to one of
the worst occurrences of forced migration in recent memory.
– By some accounts three-fourths of the population have at one time or another been forced into displacement.
– Only recently have involuntary flows within the country been brought to light as a key concern.
• Internal displacement as ebbed and flowed depending on the general level of insecurity.
– Two million internally displaced at the height of conflict in the 80s.
– Around one million internally displaced over much of the 90s
IDP and Return IDP Stocks since 2000 0
300
600
900
1200
Perso
ns (i
n the
thou
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s)
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
20112012
20002013
Year
IDP Return IDPSource: UNHCR (2014b)
Literature Review: Conflict • Macro-level:
– Neoclassical growth models predict a quick recovery to steady-state growth levels.
– Endogenous growth models suggest a more drawn out recovery period due to disproportionate loss of human capital, along with the undermining of social and institutional foundations.
• Micro-level:
– Negative impact on human capital accumulation, especially of children, leading to reduced long-term livelihood prospects, and thus welfare.
• Education: exposure to violence fewer years of schooling.
• Health: exposure to violence worse nutrition and a lower height-for-age.
Literature Review: Displacement • Oyelere and Wharton (2013) in Colombia:
– Significant education accumulation gap, and lower rate of enrollment at the secondary level.
• Verwimp and Van Bavel (2013) in Burundi:
– Decrease in the probability of completing primary school for both boys and girls.
• Eder (2013) in Bosnia:
– Significantly less spent on child’s education at both the primary and secondary level.
• Fiala (2012; 2009) in Uganda:
– More affluent displaced households have significantly less educational attainment, suggesting a strategic shift of human to physical capital investment.
– Significant decrease in the consumption of meat.
Methodology • Dataset originates from a household survey taken in 2012, across 15 provinces.
• Questionnaire allows for direct identification of internally displaced households in comparison to those who have never moved.
– Able to distinguish involuntary movement due to conflict, insecurity, persecution or natural disaster.
– Exogenous choice of destination, without consideration for the outcomes in question (e.g. services like education, food and health).
• Ultimately, our sample is made up of 1,020 household-level observations of which 40 percent are considered involuntarily and exogenously internally displaced.
Location of Internally Displaced Households
Summary Statistics: Outcomes of Interest Full Sample Non-Displaced Internally Displaced
Mean SD Mean SD Mean SD t-test
School Attendance:
None 0.3539 0.4784 0.2946 0.4562 0.4425 0.4973 ***
All school-aged children 0.4078 0.4917 0.4550 0.4984 0.3374 0.4734 ***
Only school-aged boys 0.2029 0.4024 0.2111 0.4084 0.1907 0.3933
Food Insecurity:
Never 0.1951 0.3965 0.2357 0.4248 0.1345 0.3416 ***
Rarely (1-2 times/month) 0.4382 0.4964 0.4239 0.4946 0.4597 0.499
Often (>3 times/month) 0.3667 0.4821 0.3404 0.4742 0.4059 0.4917 *
Dietary Diversity
(times eaten meat/week) 0.9725 1.3221 1.1178 1.4573 0.7555 1.0543 ***
Note: * 0.10, ** 0.05, *** 0.01.
Summary Statistics: HH-level Covariates Full Sample Non-Displaced Internally Displaced
Mean SD Mean SD Mean SD t-test
Age of respondent 37.74 14.09 37.64 14.12 37.89 14.06
No formal education 0.8265 0.3789 0.8200 0.3845 0.8362 0.3706
Married 0.8510 0.3563 0.8167 0.3872 0.9022 0.2974 ***
Number of children 5.20 3.07 5.25 3.04 5.11 3.11
Disabled member 0.2225 0.4162 0.2013 0.4013 0.2543 0.4360
Log of HH income 3.5692 0.6106 3.5972 0.6206 3.5275 0.5935
Received assistance 0.4500 0.4977 0.3797 0.4857 0.5550 0.4976 ***
Ethnicity:
Pashtun 0.6255 0.4842 0.6072 0.4888 0.6528 0.4767
Tajik 0.0990 0.2988 0.1358 0.3429 0.0440 0.2054 ***
Hazara 0.0725 0.2595 0.0835 0.2768 0.0562 0.2307
Other 0.2029 0.4024 0.1735 0.3790 0.2469 0.4318 **
Rural location type 0.7784 0.4155 0.7005 0.4584 0.8949 0.3071 ***
Note: * 0.10, ** 0.05, *** 0.01.
Results: School Attendance
Multinomial Logit Model (RRR)
Base Category: None All School-Aged Children Only School-Aged Boys
Internally Displaced 0.4937*** 0.4838*** 0.7608 0.6013*** 0.6008*** 0.8363
(0.0740) (0.0849) (0.1628) (0.1099) (0.1175) (0.1976)
HH-level Covariates No Yes Yes No Yes Yes
Location-based FE No No Yes No No Yes
Adj. R-Squared 0.0102 0.1158 0.1742 0.0102 0.1158 0.1742
N 1020 1020 1020 1020 1020 1020
Note: * p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01.
Results: Food Insecurity
Multinomial Logit Model (RRR)
Base Category: Never Rarely (1-2 times/month) Often (> 3 times/month)
Internally Displaced 1.9005*** 1.9340*** 2.0554*** 2.0895*** 2.1239*** 2.0358***
(0.3522) (0.3836) (0.4628) (0.3964) (0.4434) (0.4717)
HH-level Covariates No Yes Yes No Yes Yes
Location-based FE No No Yes No No Yes
Adj. R-Squared 0.0080 0.0533 0.0823 0.0080 0.0533 0.0823
N 1020 1020 1020 1020 1020 1020
Note: * p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01.
Results: Dietary Diversity
Zero-Censored Tobit Model (MFX)
Probability of Eating Meat Number of Times Eating Meat (if > 0)
Internally Displaced -0.1186*** -0.1161*** -0.1700*** -0.2419*** -0.2189*** -0.2986***
(0.0270) (0.0286) (0.0331) (0.0558) (0.0556) (0.0599)
HH-level Covariates No Yes Yes No Yes Yes
Location-based FE No No Yes No No Yes
Adj. R-Squared 0.0058 0.0518 0.0900 0.0058 0.0518 0.0900
N 1020 1020 1020 1020 1020 1020
Note: * p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01.
Conclusion • This study investigates the long-term consequences of conflict and displacement
in Afghanistan by inquiring how the younger generations within displaced households may fare in their particular circumstances.
• Strong evidence that displacement leads to greater food insecurity and lower dietary diversity within those households.
– A displaced household is 17 percent less likely to have eaten meat in the week prior to the survey, and those displaced households that had eaten meat ate 30 percent less.
• Indication that displacement has a negative effect on school attendance, not only for all children but also when differentiating by gender.
• Limitation of our analysis:
– Inability to fully account for selection bias of displacement. – Inability to take into account heterogeneity within households.
