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11. Causes and Consequences of Conflict and Terrorism

11. Causes and Consequences of Conflict and Terrorism

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Page 1: 11. Causes and Consequences of Conflict and Terrorism

11. Causes and Consequences of Conflict and Terrorism

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• General Trends

: UN Secretary-General Ghali defined global system as “culture of death”

• since the year 1400, 2,566 individual wars

- in the late 1600, the number sharply dropped

- but it has risen sharply in the middle 1800s

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• as many as 650 armed conflicts have occurred since 1900• the past century was extraordinary violent

: for the entire 20th century- 130-142 million war-related deaths- 214-226 million of government killings in non-war situations

• after WWII, not a single day has gone by without a war being fought

• between 1945 and 2001: 225 armed conflicts

- 42 wars between two countries - 178 internal conflicts

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• from 1945 to 2000: 50-51 million people were killed

• the number of people killed from armed conflicts since 1945 : twice that of the 19th century

• at the end of 2002, : major conflicts were active in 38 locations throughout

the world, including Iraq, Afghanistan, the Ivory Coast, Philippine

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Theories of the Causes of Aggression

• Prussian strategist Karl von Clausewitz in On War states : “war is merely an extension of diplomacy by other

means”• war

: a condition arising within states and among states- when states use violent means to destroy opponents

or coerce them into submission• realists underscores

: the belief that war is an instrument for states to use to resolve their conflicts

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• why does war occur?

• war is rooted in multiple sources at various level of analysis

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First Level of Analysis: Individuals’ Human Nature

• relationship between human nature and aggression

• nature versus nurture debate

: the controversy over whether human beings’ aggression is determined by human nature (genetics) or it is nurtured by the environmental conditions that humans experience

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(1) realist view

• psychologist Sigmund Freud

: aggression is an instinctive part of human nature

- that stems from human’s genetic programming and psychological makeup

• ethnologists, Konrad Lorenz

: human is one of the few species practicing intraspecific aggression (killing members of one’s own species)

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• realists: assume drive for power and aggression is innate

• human: is essentially selfish and aggressive,: people murder and kill

- because of their innate genetic drives to act out aggressively

• human : has inherited a tendency to make war from our (animal)

ancestors• Charles Darwin

: theory of evolution and natural selection: a struggle for survival of the fittest

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(2) liberalist view

• liberal theorists and social scientists disagree

: most of people reject killing as evil

• genetics fail to explain

: why individual may be belligerent only at certain times

: why people cooperate and act morally

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• Francis Fukuyama: at genetic level, human beings are built for consensus,

not for conflict• James Wilson

: Darwinian survival of the fittest and realist theory overlook

- the fact that human beings have traits such as sympathy, self-control, a desire for fairness, the moral sense

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(3) other views

• war is interpreted as a learned cultural habit

• the 1986 Seville Statement

: aggression

- a propensity acquired as a result of socialization rather than a genetically programmed behavior

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• a U.S. policymaker, Ralph Bunche: “there are no warlike people – just warlike leaders”

: war is driven by the madness of kings

: failure to make rational choice

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Second Level of Analysis: States’ Internal Characteristics

• conventional wisdom

: the state’s government, sizes, ideology, geographical location, population dynamics, ethnic homogeneity, wealth, military capacities, level of educational attainment

- influence whether they will go to war

• the prospects of war

: was influenced most heavily by the attribute of states and the types of leaders’ decision making (realism)

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(1) Cultural determinants• culture

: a kind of social road map- telling people what is and is not acceptable- providing guidelines and priorities for how people

organize their lives: binds groups together

- serving as part of the fundamental content of society- the French different from Peruvians or Cambodians

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• political culture : explain the rise of fascism and aggression in Germany or

militarism and aggression in Japan- authoritarian and anti-individualist elements of

German and Japanese political culture : allowed fascist and militaristic movements to

take root: violence in the U.S.

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• most people in most state live an everyday experience of numbness : which disinclines them to oppose their leaders’ decision

to wage war (Japan, Germany during the WWI, WWII)• the society

: organizes its society to accept the death : builds culture to affirm the death

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• the governments encourage the people : to glorify the state : to respect warrior as a hero: to accept the warfare against adversary

• society shape : their people’s norms and beliefs through the educational

programs (socialization)• cultural conditioning

: culture affects national decision making about issues such as the acceptability of aggression (Japan, Germany before WWII)

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Tokugawa Ieyasu (1542-1616)He opened Edo shogunate, peace of 265 years established age.

In this picture him of old age, the scene which takes the field in the last war in Osaka is drawn.

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Akechi Samanosuke (1536-1582) He is nephew of Akechi mitsuhide who ruins Oda Nobunaga. He retreated with the horse the big lake swimming.

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A US pilot beheaded by Japanese

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Japanese occupation and “the Rape of Nanking”

• Japan: the invasion of Manchuria, China in 1931

• the Communists and the Kuomintang (KMT): engaged in the Chinese Civil War: distracted from the reality of Japanese advances

• in 1937, the Chinese communists and nationalists : form a united front.

• the Chinese army : poorly trained and equipped

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• formally started the Sino-Japanese War in 1937

: the Japanese were swift in capturing major Chinese cities in the northeast

• the fall of Nanking in 1937 - "The Rape of Nanking"

: the brutal massacre

: the Japanese slaughtered over 100,000 innocent civilians and raped

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• The bold headline: “Contest to Kill First 100 Chinese with Sword Extended

When Both Fighters Exceed Mark — Mukai Scores 106 and Noda 105"

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The slaughter of civilians is appalling. I could go on for pages telling of cases or rape and brutality almost beyond belief. Two bayoneted cases are the only survivors of seven street cleaners who were sitting in their headquarters when Japanese soldiers came in without warning or reason and killed five of their number and wounded the two that found their way to the hospital. (Robert Wilson, letter to his family, Dec. 15, 1937)

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• historians estimate : 20,000 (and sometimes up to 80,000) women from as

young as seven to the elderly were raped. • a large number of them were systematized in a process

: soldiers would search door to door for young girls: killed immediately after rape, often by mutilation.

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American Case

• using violence to get what they feel they deserve

• A tracking poll of the values of American and Canadian: asked if “it is acceptable to use violence to get what you

want”- in 1992, 9% of Canadians and 10% of Americans

said “acceptable”- in 1996, 9% of Canadians and 18% of Americans- in 2000, 12% of Canadians and 24% of Americans

• Americans are more willing to employ military force in world

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How resilient is culture?

• during about 65 % of the time in the 16th century and 17th century: the major European countries armed themselves and

were engaged into warfare• between 1816 and 1945

: when the European countries were energetically arming- three-fifths of all interstate wars took place in

Europe

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• since 1945, with exception of war in the former Yugoslavia

: interstate war has not occurred in Europe

• post-war Europe was built upon

: the culture of “no more wars” and “the rebirth of Europe”

: the archetype “the European warfare” or “fear of death”

• lessons from mistake and history

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• national character/culture: drives certain nationalities to aggression or to peace

- Sweden and Swiss once warlike have managed the conflicts without warfare since 1809 and 1815 respectively

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(2) nationalism: animosity and hostility

• love for and loyalty to a nation

: nationalism (patriotism) encourages internal harmony and political stability

: it makes a positive contribution to civil solidarity and domestic peace

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• critics of nationalism

: nationalism

- dangerous in its extreme form

- sentimental devotion to the welfare of one’s own nation

: without concern for the common interests of the global community

- makes a blind approval of every policy and practice of the patriot’s own nation

- ignores transcendent moral principles such as the love for all humanity

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• a powerful catalyst to war• “the religion of the 20th century” – Aldous Huxley

• “when a commitment to the power and the prosperity of the state is strengthened by national myths emphasizing the moral, physical and political strength of the state, … nationalism contribute to wage war” - Jack Levy

- Nazi glorified the state : claimed that Germans were a superior race

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• nationalist sentiment promotes

: war fever which is accompanied by the overt hostility, animosity, and contempt toward an image of enemy

: the U.S. vs. Japan; France vs. Germany in WWII

• “Even the U.S. itself is not immune from the dangerous nationalism” – Gorbachev in 19921

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• the American: wedded to love of country and patriotism: 98% of American youth is proud of their nationality: 58% of British youth / 65% of German youth

• very difficult for American to adjust to a globalizing era where allegiance to country is becoming less important

• Americans tend to think locally

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• dual character of nationalism

: it cements nations and nationalities together in common binds

: it divides nation against nation

- nationality against nationality

: it is used to justify armed conflicts against other nations

• are nationalism and internationalism mutually exclusive?

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(3) the new geography of conflict and territorial imperative

• increased competition over access to major sources of oil, gas, water, and valuable commodity

: produces a new geographical conflict

- conflicts surrounding the Middle East

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• Robert Ardrey: territorial imperative as cause of war

“humans like animals are compelled by instinct to possess and defend to the death the territory they believe belongs exclusively to them”

- the genocide in Kosovo in 1999

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The Genocide in Kosovo

• The Balkan Peninsula: a melting pot of cultures, religions and peoples for centuries

• Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia & Herzegovina and Macedonia : Slovenia – Catholic : Croatia - Catholic : Serbia - Orthodox : Macedonia – Orthodox : Bosnia & Herzegovina - a mix of Serbs, Croats and

Muslims

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• Kosovo is a small province at the southern end of Serbia

- 90% of the population are ethnic Albanians (Muslim), with the other 10% being Serb

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• the Ottoman Turks defeated the Serbian army in two crucial battles

- on the banks of the river Marica in 1371 - on Kosovo Polje (Kosovo Plain - "field of the black birds")

in 1389• the Ottoman Turks had ruled most of the Balkans for 500

years

• Kosovo had been populated by Serbs even under the rule of the Ottoman Turks

• in the 20th century, Kosovo started becoming increasingly populated by Albanians 

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• Serbs resented the fact that now there are more Muslims on that land than Serbs

• Kosovo claimed a more autonomy in 1990• but Serbia imposed direct rule • ethnic Albanians were repressed and Serbian migration

into the region was encouraged• the Serbian forces uprooted people from their home and

committed ethnic cleansing

• the NATO air strikes drove the Serbian forces out in 1999 and the masses of refugees returned home

• ethnic hatreds will live among the people of this land

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(4) economic system:• the debate over relationship between economics and war grows

: given the increasing big gap between the rich and the poor during the period of globalization

• liberalists - free trade and economic interdependence will cement the bonds of

friendship among and within states that make to prevent wars - Thomas Friedman “Golden Arches Theory of Conflict Prevention”

: “no two countries have fought a war, once MacDonald was present in both countries … They preferred waiting the line for burgers”

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• realist and Marxist - conflict and war are likely to take place because the

benefits of economic exchanges are not evenly distributed • the future will tell

: if the free trade and market will generate international conflict or cooperation

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(5) government system: democratic peace,

“democracies don’t fight each other”

• liberalists: Immanuel Kant in 1795 “Perpetual Peace”, Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, Woodrow Wilson

- the free democratically ruled government will generate peaceful international relations

- the democratic government would be less likely to wage a war

: than would countries ruled by dictators

- because the public opinion constrains the government accountable to the people

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• critics:

- in the 1980s and 1990s, 81 states took significant steps toward democracy

- today 140 out of the world’s 200 states hold multiparty elections

- will liberal democracy automatically generate a peaceful world order?

- shaky democracies fight each other

: the Civil War in the U.S.

: WWI launched by two regimes - Germany and Austria-Hungary – that had representation and equitable legal systems

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Third Level of Analysis: Cycles of War and Peace in the Global System

• realism: the roots of armed conflict rest in human nature• neorealism: global characteristics or structure engender

wars- wars are a product of anarchic international system

where states rely on self-help- lacks of central government to regulate armed conflicts

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(1) power transition theory: structural realism

• war has been likely whenever the competitive power (China) emerges

• war between the rising challenger and the declining power has been likely

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(2) long-cycle theory• an interpretation of world history

: focuses on the repeating pattern of interstate behavior• after long peaceful periods, the global wars have taken place

• over the past 500 years, four great powers (Portugal, the Netherlands, Britain, the U.S.) : controlled the global system

• however, new rivals (Spain, France, Germany) : have risen to challenge hegemon by fighting a “global

war”

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The Causes of Civil Wars

• civil wars

: stem from various reasons such as ideological, demographic, religious, ethnic, economic, social-structural, and political conditions

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• 1849-1914: imperialism, industrialism, nationalism• 1915-1945: World wars and economic collapse• 1945-1988: Decolonization and independence for

emerging Global South countries during the Cold War

• 1989-2001: Age of failed states and civil wars- 118 civil wars erupted in comparison with only 8 wars

between states

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Table: The Frequency of 242 Civil Wars across Six Periods, 1816–2001

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Map: A World at War: States Threatening to Collapse in Civil Wars, 2002

SOURCE: Copyright © 2002 by Harper’s Magazine. All rights reserved. Reproduced from the April issue by special permission.

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(1) Legacy of colonialism

• since 1816, three-fourths of the civil war began after WWII- the accelerating trend of civil war

- a legacy of colonialism• newly independent state (the Global South: Korea,

Vietnam, Africa, Middle East etc) : typically go through the political unrest following their

acquisition of sovereignty: struggle to resolve the long-standing internal grievances

and territorial disputes• East Timor, Africa

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• Rwanda– Hutu 84%– Tutsi 15%– Twa 1%– both

: speak the same language: practice the same religions: live in the same geographic regions: share the same customs

– no real ethnic difference between the two– they rely on

: such vague distinctions as height, facial features, and diet

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• 600 yrs ago Tutsi migrated into Hutu home land• The Europeans placed the Tutsi as the superior ethnic

group : because of their physical features

• The Hutu were later placed above the Tutsi

• Colonization brought in racial ideas. • the Tutsis had more European features

: so they were viewed with more respect

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• Approx. 1 Million dead• Severely impoverished the population, especially

women• Emotional scars for the women and the children can

still be seen today• Thousands of people living in refugee camps in other

countries

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(2) Poverty

• a reaction to frustration and relative deprivation• people perceive

: they are unfairly deprived of the wealth and status• free trade leads to political instability

: in the period of economic growth through free trade and free market

: misery among those not sharing the benefits are breeding revolt

• most of the countries in the Global South: Africa, Colombia, Brazil etc.

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(3) Ethnonational Conflict

• civil wars

: provoked by deeply rooted ethnic and religious hatreds in the multiethnic states

• the former Yugoslavia

• Israeli-Palestine conflict

• Africa (Rwanda)

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(4) Failed States

• many new governments : fragile and fall apart

- as they fail to effectively manage domestic affairs• failed states

: governments are in danger of losing loyalty of their citizens

- who are rebelling against corruption and administrative failure

• Africa, South America, South-east Asia

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Conclusion

• war: a condition arising within states and among states when

states use violent means to destroy opponents or coerce them into submission

• conflict: discord, often arising in international relations over

perceived incompatibilities of interest: occurs when people interact and may be generated by

religious, ideological, ethnic, economic, political, territorial issues

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: not necessarily destructive unlike war: it can promote social solidarity, creative thinking, learning,

and communication: however, the cost of conflicts become threatening when the

partners turn to arms to settle their differences• armed conflict

: combat between the military forces of two or more groups or states

• three primary ways of armed conflict: wars between states: civil wars within states: terrorism

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• in sum: proportion of countries engaged in wars has declined: today only three instances of interstate conflicts

- Iraq vs. U.S/Britain, Pakistan vs. India, Palestine vs. Israel

: most wars occur in the Global South: most of armed conflicts are civil wars (within states): war is no longer fought to gain foreign territory: war between great powers is becoming obsolete (a long

peace)

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• is armed conflict obsolete?

• international terrorists attacked the symbol of global capitalism, on September 11, 2001

• terrorism

: brings a new dimension to military conflict

: the probability of many future small wars fought by NGO terrorist movements against the armies of states

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• the nature of contemporary warfare

: appears to be undergoing a major transformation

• 9/11

: reduced confidence in the capacity of the world to bring the violence under control

• the violence and global insecurity

: are likely to remain core concerns in the 21st century

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Terrorism

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Osama bin Laden: Profile

• Osama bin Laden

- a "businessman" and the son of the Yemeni-born owner of a leading Saudi construction company

- born into great wealth

- the coordinator of an international terrorist network, responsible for numerous deadly attacks against American and Western targets.

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• His militancy is traced back to the 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.

• bin Laden's goal

: to remove Western "infidels" from Muslim countries

- the Russians from Afghanistan, the American military from Saudi Arabia and other points in the Gulf

• February 1998 bin Laden

: endorsed a fatwa, religious decree, to call for the liberation of Muslim holy places in Saudi Arabia and Israel, as well as the death of Americans and their allies

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Definition of Terrorism

• “premeditated politically motivated violence against noncombatant targets by subnational or clandestine agents, intended to influence an audience” – Department of State’s Office of Counter-Terrorism

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• “one person’s terrorist is another’s freedom fighter”

: terrorist groups tend to be condemned or praised

- depending on whether those who condemn or praise accept or reject the causes of terror

• a value-laden subject ?

: depends on views about terrorism’s purpose, challenge, and ultimate significance

• constructivism

: what we see depends on what we look at, what we look for, what we expect to see, what we wish to see, and how we react

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• conventional view

: a tactic of the relatively powerless

(political or social minorities and ethnic or religious movement) against the relatively powerful

: those seeking independence, such as the Basques in Spain, Irish revolutionaries

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: in the industrialized countries- minority groups

: feel deprived of the political freedoms and privileges enjoyed by the majority

: German Red Army Faction: Japan’s Red Army chukaku-ha in the 1970s): the U.S. – Weather Underground

: religious terrorist group- the Islamic extremist group, the right-wing Jewish

terrorist group, Palestinian skyjackers, HAMAS

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• governments undertake terror and violence against their own people

: state-terrorism

: Pol Pot, Adolf Hitler, Joseph Stalin, Mao Tse Tung

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The Purposes of Terror

• the leading effect of terrorism

: fear and alarm

• terrorism may be employed to accomplish a variety of objectives

: specific concessions

- release of prisoners

: provoking widespread publicity for the terrorists and their cause

: causing widespread disorder

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: provoking of repressions, conterterrorism which may ultimately lead to undermine an unpopular regime

: enforcing obedience and cooperation through state terror or institutional violence

: the punishment of those considered guilty by terrorists

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Figure: The Number of Terrorist Incidents throughout the Globe and the Changing Number of Casualties Causedby International Terrorism, since the Late 1960s

SOURCE: Office of the Coordinator for Counter-Terrorism, U.S. Department of State, with 2002 a preliminary projection based on the first nine months of that year.

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• global terrorist activities

: have increased threefold between 1969 and 1987

- after that the number has gradually declined

• after 9/11, the number increased

• until 9/11 terrorism

: dismissed as a significant danger

because global terrorism previously have never taken many lives

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The New Global Terrorism

• 9/11 forced people : to rethink the meaning of terrorism

• 9/11 shattered : the preexisting sense of international security and euphoria of a

peaceful post-Cold War era: it is far from conventional terrorism

• conventional terrorism: the weak against the strong: the primary purpose was publicity, to elicit attention and

sympathy for the terrorist’s causes: terror was regarded as a theatre: terrorists wanted a lot of people watching, not a lot of people

dead

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• a new terrorism: global in scope

- borders no longer serve as barriers to terrorists: maximal lethality using suicidal agents

- to kill as many as possible: waged by civilians without state sanction: uses advanced technology: orchestrated by transnational nonstate organization

through global networks of terrorist cells located in many countries

: driven by hatred of target

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Why do they hate us?

“Why did you Americans do that terrible thing?”

“We always loved America. To us, America was the great country, the perfect country, the country that helped us while other countries were exploiting us.”

“But after that moment, no one in Iran ever trusted the U.S. again. I can tell you for sure that if you had not done that thing, you would never have had that problem of hostages being taken in your embassy in Tehran. All your trouble started in 1953. Why, why did you do it?” – an older Iranian woman

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Causes of Anti-Americanism in the Arab World

– Abdallah

The Real Roots of Arab Anti-Americanism

– Rubin

(1) U.S. support for Israel

: unfair, unbalanced, racist

a. stands beside Israel in every conflict with the Palestinians and the Arabs.

b. provides Israel with sophisticated arms

(1) the U.S.: the Palestinians' sponsor in the peace process with Israel

a. always remains a mutually acceptable peace agreement between the Arabs and Israel

b. the U.S. generally refusing to supply arms or other aid

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(2) U.S. support

some authoritarian Arab regime

: its hostile policies toward Islam and its own citizens of Arab and Muslim origin.

(2) the United States: engaged in a humanitarian effort to help a Muslim people

a. in Afghanistan from the Soviets

b. in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia from Iraq

c. in Bosnia and Kosovo from Yugoslavia.

d. in Somalia, where no vital U.S. interests were at stake

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(3) U.S. government

a. speak about democracy and human rights

- but their actions often do not support either democracy or human rights in the Arab world

b. democracy is undermined by the American support for some Arab repressive regimes

(3) Washington

a. pressures Arab governments into improving their positions on democracy or human rights

b. but it is accused of acting in an imperialist manner

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(4) the Arab people

: see all U.S. actions as American efforts to protect

a. Israel

b. some Arab regimes that serve American interests.

(4) Washington

a. maintained its pro-Arab policy throughout the Cold War

b. worried that if it antagonized Arab regimes, they would side with the Soviet Union.

c. wooed Egypt

d. accepted Syria's hegemony over Lebanon,

e. did little to punish states that sponsored terrorism.

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(5) the existence of U.S. military bases in Saudi Arabia, near Mecca

: violated Islamic law

- forbids any non-Muslims from entering that sacred area

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(6) strong dislike for American foreign policy

- but often-quite positive attitudes toward American society and culture and toward the American people

(5) Arab and Muslim rage at the United States

a. very little to do with actual U.S. policies

b. policies have been remarkably pro-Arab over the past 50 years.

c. promoting anti-Americanism: simply the best way Muslim leaders distract their publics from the real problem (internal mismanagement)

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Was the U.S. real record constantly distorted?

(1) the extent of Americans' failure to understand the region: Middle Easterners' inability to understand the United States

(2) information tightly - controlled in the Middle East. (3) Arab anti-American radicals

: distort the record : ignore all the positive examples (4) even Arab moderates

: never express gratitude for benign American measures

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American Role in the Military Intervention

(1) Iran: An American Coup and the Roots of Middle East Terror

• Mohammad Mossadegh

: served as prime minister of Iran for twenty-six months in the early 1950s

: overthrown in a coup d’etat staged by the CIA

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• in Iran, almost everyone has known for decades

: the U.S. was responsible for

- putting an end to democratic rule in 1953

- installing the long dictatorship of Mohammed Reza Shah

: his dictatorship produced the Islamic Revolution in 1979

- an anti-American theocracy

: inspired anti-Western fanatics in many countries, Afghanistan (al-Qaeda’s homes and bases)

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• operation Ajax

: the code name of the CIA coup against Mossadegh

: a great trauma for Iran, the Middle East, and the colonial world

• the first time the U.S. overthrew a foreign government

: shaped the way millions of people view the U.S.

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• the coup

: ordered by President Eisenhower and Prime Minister Churchill

• in 1953, the U.S.

: still new to Iran

: many Iranian

- thought of Americans as friends, supporters of the fragile democracy

- demonized Britain (but not the U.S) as the colonialist oppressor that exploited them

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• since the early years of the 20th C., the British

: the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company

: enjoyed a lucrative monopoly on the production and sale of Iranian oil

• Iranian oil

: played a decisive role in maintaining Britain at the pinnacle of world power

: most Iranian lived in poverty

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• in 1951, Mossadegh pledged to

: correct this injustice

: throw the company out of Iran

: nationalize the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company

: free Iran from subjection to foreign power

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• the British

: considered launching an armed invasion to retake the oil fields

: President Truman refused

: decided to organize a coup

• Truman

: sympathized with nationalist movements

: had nothing but contempt for old-style imperialists

: did not wish to set the precedent

- the CIA never overthrew a government

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• the American attitude changed

: Eisenhower was elected in November 1952

• “I decided to emphasize the Communist threat to Iran rather than the need to recover control of the [British] oil industry.”

- a senior agent of the Secret Intelligence Service, Christopher Woodhosue

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• the American decision-makers

: John Dulles, the secretary of state and Allen Dulles, the CIA director

: Cold Warriors

: viewed the world as an ideological battleground and the East-West confrontation

: Iran – a second China or Korea

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• CIA agents shared a profound idealism• Kermit Roosevelt

: a chief of the CIA’s Near East and Asia Division: a grandson of President Theodore Roosevelt

• “a courteous, soft-spoken Easterner, … well-educated rather than intellectual, pleasant and unassuming… In fact, the last person you would expect to be up to the neck in dirty tricks.” - the Soviet agent Kim Philby

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(2) Guatemala: example of American imperial policies in its own

backyard.

• in 1954, the Eisenhower administration and the CIA: funded a military coup

- overthrow a Guatemalan president - modest land reform policies were considered a threat

to American corporations.

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• CIA-supported genocide against Mayan peasantsbetween 1981 and 1983

• “the American training of the officer corps in counter-insurgency techniques was a key factor in the genocide … Entire Mayan villages were attacked and burned and their inhabitants were slaughtered in an effort to deny the guerrillas protection.” - in 1999, a report on the Guatemalan civil war from the

U.N.-sponsored Commission for Historical Clarification

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• “It is important that I state clearly that support for military forces and intelligence units which engaged in violence and widespread repressions was wrong, and the U.S. must not repeat that mistake….”

- in Guatemala in March 1999, Clinton

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• U.S.-sponsored Asian dictators include

: Chiang Kai-shek and his son Chiang Ching-kuo in Taiwan

: Ferdinand Marcos in the Philippines

: Ngo Dinh Diem, General Nguyen Khanh etc. in Vietnam

: General Lon Nol in Cambodia

: Marshals Pibul Songgram etc. in Thailand

: General Suharto in Indonesia

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Advocates of military activism

• global dominance of empire

: necessary to provide the order required for international commerce and military security

• stable world order

: a dominant global leader

- to punish aggressors who challenge the status quo

- to need a military intervention

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• American interventions necessary due to the natural aggression of the Communism: “domino theory”

- the fall of any country to communism would lead other countries to topple like a set of dominoes.

: American troops deployed (in Okinawa and South Korea)

- necessary to maintain “stability” in the region.

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“We were trying to halt the erosion of the ‘free world’ in the wake of the Vietnam War.” - President Reagan’s CIA director, William Casey

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Blowback

• Washington

: the headquarters of a global military-economic domination.

• Washington exercises its global hegemony.

: so much of this activity takes place in relative secrecy.

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• blowback

: the unintended consequences of policies that were kept secret from the American people.

: “a nation reaps what it sows”

: military acts in country X

- a bomb at an American embassy in country Y

- a dead American in country Z.

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• “Historical data show a strong correlation between U.S. involvement in international situations and an increase in terrorist attacks against the U.S.” – the undersecretary of defense for acquisition and technology.

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• blowback can lead to more blowback, in a spiral of destructive behavior.

• bin Laden - a former protégé of the U.S.

: Afghan rebels against the USSR in the 1980s

: played an important role in driving the Soviet Union from Afghanistan

: turned against the U.S. in 1991

: regarded the stationing of American troops in his native Saudi Arabia as a violation of his religious beliefs

• 9/11 is an instance of blowback

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• even an empire

: cannot control the long-term effects of its policies.

: the U.S.

- the world’s lone imperial power

- the world’s most prominent target for blowback

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Counterterrorism

• disagreement on the characteristic and the cause of global terrorism

• without agreement on them, agreement on the best response to the new global terrorism is unlikely

• a prior question

: what happened on 9/11 and why 9/11 happened?

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• opposed views

: repression and conciliation

• counterterrorism is controversial

: because one person’s solution is another person’s problem

• the answers are often unclear

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(1) the harsh approach (repression)

: see terrorism springing from the rational decisions of extremists to rely on political violence

- they advise

: prevention and even preemptive strikes

- that promise surgical attacks to kill terrorist, and swift and severe retaliation

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• Rumsfeld

: “the only way to defeat terrorists is to attack them. There is no choice.”

: “even if appeasement is tempting, the only way to respond is relentlessly and thoroughly”

: concession only encourage terrorists’ appetite for further terrorism

: terrorism cannot be cured but it can be prevented by preemption

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(2) the moderate approach (conciliation): see terrorism rooted in frustrations with political

oppression and deprivation

- they recommend : addressing these root causes in order to contain

terrorism - UN resolution in 1972,

“measures to prevent international terrorism require study of the underlying causes of those forms of terrorism and act of violence which lie in misery, frustration, grievance and despair”

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- long-term reforms and short-term conciliatory policies are proposed

- combating terrorism through hard military operations

: tends to encourage further terrorist actions

- concession can redress the grievances

: that lead to terrorism

- terrorism requires a long-term solution

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• in fighting the new global terrorism,

: should we use military forces?

: is it legitimate or illegitimate use?

: are methods for waging a just war effective?

• require multilateral cooperation?

: or unilateral, go-it-alone independent national institutions?

• what are the relative benefits and costs of counterterrorist measures?