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The Importance of the IEA-Russia Energy DialogueJoint IEA-Federal Tariff Service WorkshopIEA, Paris, 27-28 May 2010
Mr. Nobuo TanakaExecutive DirectorInternational Energy Agency
© OECD/IEA - 2010
Efficiency measures account for 2/3 of the 3.8Gt abatement in 2020, with renewables contributing to 1/5. With substantial abatement potential outside the OECD+ region, financing will hold a key to the energy sector meeting a carbon-constrained
trajectory.
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
2007 2015 2020 2025 2030
450 Scenario
Reference Scenario
Gt
Efficiency – 57%
Renewables/Biofuels – 23%
Nuclear – 10%
CCS – 10%
OECD+
Other Major Economies
Other Countries
Efficiency – 45%
Renewables/Biofuels – 21%Nuclear – 13%CCS – 20%
Efficiency – 67%
Renewables/Biofuels – 19%Nuclear– 8%CCS – 6%
Efficiency – 55%
Renewables/Biofuels – 34%Nuclear – 9%
3.8 Gt
13.8 Gt
WorldBy region
7
World abatement of energy-related CO2 emissions in a Carbon-constrained outlook
World abatement of energy-related CO2 emissions in a Carbon-constrained outlook
© OECD/IEA - 2010
End-use efficiency, renewables and nuclear account for most CO2 abatement in 2020 relative to the Reference Scenario, with CCS subsequently also playing a key role
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2007 2015 2020 2025 2030
Gt
450 Scenario
Reference Scenario
Efficiency 48 308 51 153
End-use 47 305 48 153
Power plants 1 3 3 0
Renewables 47 190 7 89
Biofuels 1 2 0 1
Nuclear 31 33 0 0
CCS 7 59 3 25
Abatement Investment
(Mt CO2) ($2008 billion)
2020 20302010-2020
2021-2030
Russia energy-related CO2 emissions abatement, relative to Reference Scenario
Russia energy-related CO2 emissions abatement, relative to Reference Scenario
© OECD/IEA - 2010
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Fossil fuel subsidies – by country and as a share of GDP, 2008
Global subsidized consumption of fossil fuels amounted to US$ 557 billion in 2008. Of the countries surveyed this represents 2.1% of
GDP (PPP) on average
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Iran
Russ
ia
Saud
i Ara
bia
Indi
a
Chin
a
Egyp
t
Vene
zuel
a
Mex
ico
Indo
nesi
a
Arge
ntina
Iraq
Uzb
ekis
tan
UAE
Paki
stan
Ukr
aine
Mal
aysi
a
Kuw
ait
Alge
ria
Sout
h Af
rica
Thai
land
Chin
ese
Taip
ei
Turk
men
ista
n
Ecua
dor
Bang
lade
sh
Liby
a
Qat
ar
Viet
nam
Nig
eria
Kaza
khst
an
Azer
baija
n
Ango
la
Colo
mbi
a
Sri L
anka
Peru
Brun
ei
Kore
a
Phili
ppin
es
Subs
idy
(bill
ion
US$
)
coal
gas
oil
% of GDP
© OECD/IEA - 2009
World abatement of energy-related COWorld abatement of energy-related CO22 emissions emissions
Although the savings are not strictly cumulative, the Copenhagen Accord and the G-20 commitment to phase out subsidies are complementary steps towards the 450 Scenario
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
2007 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Gt
450 Scenario
Subsidyphase out
3.8 Gt
13.8 Gt27
29
31
33
35
2007 2010 2015 2020
Gt
Reference Scenario
450 Scenario
Current Pledges
Reference Scenario
Copenhagen Accord
27
29
31
33
35
2007 2010 2015 2020
Gt
450 Scenario
Reference Scenario
Subsidy removal