The Importance of The Census for Population EstimatesMike Cline, PhDState DemographerOffice of State Budget & Management,Demographic & Economic Analysis Section

Michael.Cline@osbm.nc.gov

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Municipal and County Population Estimates

• Census Bureau• State, County, Incorporated Places, Subcounty Areas• Age, Sex, Race, Ethnicity (ASRE) for Counties• Previous year and revised annual estimates• Estimates used to weight Census Bureau Surveys (i.e. ACS)• Estimates used by agencies for planning/statistical reporting• Estimates used to distribute various federal funds

• State Demographer, Office of State Budget and Management• State, County, Municipalities, Subcounty Areas• Age, Sex, Race, Ethnicity (ASRE) for Counties• ASRE Population Projections for Counties (20 Year Horizon)• Previous year certified, standard and revised estimates• Estimates used by other agencies for planning/statistical reporting• Estimates used by DOR, DOT and other agencies to distribute state funds

Population Estimates Require Accurate 2020 Census Count!

Estimates Used for Planning and to Distribute FundsSymptomatic indicators and trends estimate municipal and county populations annually.

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Fiscal Impacts of the Census – State

• Municipal State Street-Aid (Powell Bill) Allocations• 75% of funds ($110.5 Million)• Per Capita: $19.56

• Department of Revenue • Sales & Use Tax Distributions Using Per Capita Method:

• $1.4 Billion • Per Capita: $184.67

OSBM Certified Population Estimates Require Accurate 2020 Census Count!

Source: North Carolina Dept. of Transportation, 2018 North Carolina State Street-Aid Allocations to Municipalities ; North Carolina Dept. of Revenue, Collections for Month Ending Reports for 2017.

$1.5 Billion in State Funds Distributed to Municipalities & CountiesEstimated amount of funds distributed annually to North Carolina based upon OSBM certified population estimates (2 largest state revenue allocations).

Population Estimate Change, 2010-2018Geographic Area April 1, 2010 July 1, 2018 Numeric PercentUnited States 308,758,105 327,167,434 18,409,329 6.0California 37,254,523 39,557,045 2,302,522 6.2Texas 25,146,114 28,701,845 3,555,731 14.1Florida 18,804,580 21,299,325 2,494,745 13.3New York 19,378,124 19,542,209 164,085 0.8Pennsylvania 12,702,873 12,807,060 104,187 0.8Illinois 12,831,572 12,741,080 -90,492 -0.7Ohio 11,536,757 11,689,442 152,685 1.3Georgia 9,688,709 10,519,475 830,766 8.6North Carolina 9,535,736 10,383,620 847,884 8.9Michigan 9,884,117 9,995,915 111,798 1.1Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates, Vintage 2018.

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North Carolina Population vs. Other States

9th Largest State at 10.4 Million 4th Largest Population Gain (848,000 people), April 2010 to July 2018

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Counting People Where they Are: Rural - Urban

Largest County: 1,074,596Smallest County: 4,310

Total Population (2017): 10.3 MillionIn Municipalities: 5.8 Million (56%)In Unincorporated Areas: 4.5 Million (44%)

48,618 Sq. Miles

Source: NC OSBM, 2017 County and Municipal Population Estimates

Largest Incorporated City: 845,235Smallest Incorporated Village: 23

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Population Change - April 1, 2010 – July 1, 2017

State Population Change: 7.8%

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Average Population Size and Population Change by Municipality Size in 2017

5 of Every 8 Municipalities Gained Population from 2010 to 2017

Municipality SizeTotal Population Change Percent With:

April 1, 2010 July 1, 2017 Numeric Percent Number Loss Growth100,000+ 267,730 299,275 31,544 10.8 9 0.0 100.0 50,000-99,999 66,737 72,308 5,571 8.6 9 11.1 88.9 25,000-49,999 29,875 33,468 3,593 13.6 23 4.3 95.7 15,000-24,999 16,913 17,956 1,044 7.9 22 45.5 54.5 10,000-14,999 11,525 12,443 918 8.7 23 21.7 78.35,000-9,999 6,665 7,182 517 8.9 48 25.0 75.02,500-4,999 3,545 3,755 210 6.7 92 29.3 70.71,000-2,499 1,593 1,648 56 3.8 108 35.2 64.8< 1,000 461 465 4 1.2 217 49.3 47.0All 9,533 10,461 929 4.7 551 36.5 62.1Source: North Carolina OSBM, Standard Population Estimates, Vintage 2017.

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Twenty Fastest Growing Municipalities, 2010-2017Total Population Change

Rank Municipality April 1, 2010 July 1, 2017 Numeric Percent1 Rolesville 3,786 6,319 2,533 66.92 Bermuda Run 1,725 2,696 971 56.33 St. James 3,165 4,899 1,734 54.84 Fontana Dam 15 23 8 53.35 Harrisburg 11,526 16,877 5,351 46.46 Fuquay-Varina 17,937 25,548 7,611 42.47 Leland 13,527 18,893 5,366 39.78 Waxhaw 9,859 13,645 3,786 38.49 Stem 463 638 175 37.810 Morrisville 18,576 25,242 6,666 35.911 Holly Springs 24,661 32,472 7,811 31.712 Falcon 258 336 78 30.213 Holly Ridge 1,268 1,648 380 30.014 Elon 9,409 12,183 2,774 29.515 Apex 37,476 48,435 10,959 29.216 Shallotte 3,675 4,697 1,022 27.817 Pinehurst 13,124 16,754 3,630 27.718 Huntersville 46,773 59,494 12,721 27.219 Jamestown 3,382 4,286 904 26.720 Midland 3,073 3,890 817 26.6

Source: North Carolina OSBM, Standard Population Estimates, Vintage 2017.

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Twenty Municipalities with Largest Numeric Population Gain, 2010-2017

Total Population ChangeRank Municipality April 1, 2010 July 1, 2017 Numeric Percent

1 Charlotte 731,424 845,235 113,811 15.62 Raleigh 403,892 457,583 53,691 13.33 Durham 228,330 260,251 31,921 14.04 Cary 135,234 159,006 23,772 17.65 Greensboro 269,666 288,186 18,520 6.96 Wilmington 106,476 121,150 14,674 13.87 Winston-Salem 229,617 243,026 13,409 5.88 Huntersville 46,773 59,494 12,721 27.29 Concord 79,066 90,820 11,754 14.9

10 Apex 37,476 48,435 10,959 29.211 Asheville 83,393 91,910 8,517 10.212 Holly Springs 24,661 32,472 7,811 31.713 Fuquay-Varina 17,937 25,548 7,611 42.414 Mooresville 32,711 40,001 7,290 22.315 High Point 104,371 111,454 7,083 6.816 Fayetteville 200,564 207,583 7,019 3.517 Morrisville 18,576 25,242 6,666 35.918 Cornelius 24,866 31,158 6,292 25.319 Wake Forest 30,117 36,398 6,281 20.920 Jacksonville 70,145 75,748 5,603 8.0

Source: North Carolina OSBM, Standard Population Estimates, Vintage 2017.

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Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Censuses; OSBM Population Projections, 2018 Vintage.

5.15.9

6.6

8.0

9.510.6

11.812.8

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2038

North Carolina Population, 1970 – 2010 and Projected Through 2038

Millions of People

April 5, 2018Office of State Budget & Management

North Carolina Population Change – Historic and Projected

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Projected Population Change, July 1, 2018 – July 1, 2028

State Change: 11.6% (1.2 Million People)

Thank You!

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Michael (Mike) E. Cline,State Demographer

Economic & Demographic Analysis SectionNorth Carolina Office of State Budget and Management

Michael.Cline@osbm.nc.gov919-807-4756

For Municipal & County Population Estimates and County Population Projections, See:

https://www.osbm.nc.gov/facts-figures/demographics