The Implications of Increased Sounding Data in the Amazon Basin for Global Climate Models

Summary of field research in Leticia, Colombia, Feb. 18th –

26th, 2011

Outline

Assess feasibility of acquiring sounding data in the Amazon basin What is sounding data? Why do we need it? What are the constraints?

Climate vs. Weather

Weather: recent or current conditions (ex. Cloud cover, precipitation)• Short term

Climate: typical weather for a given location• Long term• Includes weather extremes• Ex. Monthly rainfall, snowfall, normal temp extremes

What is Sounding Data?

Real time data for atmospheric variables Temperature Pressure Relative Humidity Winds

Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCMs)

Included in Global Climate Models AGCMs differ in spatial resolutions Variables

temperature pressure humidity winds water and ice condensate in cloud

Limited-Area Models/RegionalClimate Models (RCMs)

Studying climatic processes and interactions on scales too fine for typical GCM resolutions.

RCMs can give more intense events that will be smoothed in coarser-resolution GCMs.

Environmental Lapse Rate Environmental Lapse Rate • the decrease

in temperature with altitude (-dT/dz or -dT/dp)

Atmospheric layers are defined by the change of sign of the lapse rate

Data Collection Methods Surface

Stations or ships Radiosonde

Tether System High – Altitude Balloon

Satellite Microwave Radiation

Radiosondes

Many varieties Include instrument

and ground station Some are mobile

Expendable Includes:

Temperature Relative Humidity Pressure Wind

Balloon Sounding Constraints

Cost Mobility Accuracy of data

Cost Constraints

AnaSonde

Vaisala

Mobility Constraints

Requirements of Climate Studies

•Temperature• ±2.5°C at ambient

temperature

•Relative Humidity• ±2% for 10°C<T<20°C• ±5% for T<10°C

•Pressure• ±2%

AnaSonde Accuracy

Current Findings:

Christy et al. 2010: What Do Observational Datasets Say about Modeled Tropospheric Temperature Trends since 1979?

Thorne et al. 2011: Tropospheric temperature trends: history of an ongoing controversy

Preliminary Manaus analysis: Surface increase over last 10 years = .5 degrees C Sounding to 10km increase over same period is

only .15 degrees C

30 Year Sounding Analysis

Assign weight to each year at each altitude Increments of 100m

At each altitude, divide the sum of weight by the sum of % available

30 Year Sounding Analysis

Find difference at each altitude

Find the average difference

Find the average of the monthly trends

Monthly ELR Change

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

Natal ELR

Dry season ELR average changeWet season ELR average changeST average changeELR average changeMonthly ELR change

Month

ELR

Chan

ge (

deg

C)

MONTH   1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12                           

AVERAGE CHANGE   -0.073820.109067 -0.14193 -0.12137 -0.15117 -0.498670.1925740.2873940.0588290.1276730.241961 -0.22174

AVERAGE ST CHANGE   0.1894480.6477450.0858280.7554890.7670180.1790160.8134740.2952060.2268070.871011 0.646140.437116AVERAGE DRY   -0.10192 -0.10192 -0.10192 -0.10192 -0.10192 -0.10192 -0.10192 -0.10192 -0.10192 -0.10192 -0.10192 -0.10192

AVERAGE WET   0.07005 0.07005 0.07005 0.07005 0.07005 0.07005 0.07005 0.07005 0.07005 0.07005 0.07005 0.07005AVERAGE   -0.01593 -0.01593 -0.01593 -0.01593 -0.01593 -0.01593 -0.01593 -0.01593 -0.01593 -0.01593 -0.01593 -0.01593

AVERAGE ST   0.4928580.4928580.4928580.4928580.4928580.4928580.4928580.4928580.4928580.4928580.4928580.492858

AVERAGE SURFACE TEMP   28.69 28.67 28.55 28.15 27.67 26.32 25.64 26.13 27.56 28.44 28.89 28.94

AVERAGE 10KM TEMP   -5.34 -5.09 -4.53 -4.19 -4.2 -4.76 -5.6 -5.16 -4.92 -4.81 -4.9 -5.16

AVERAGE 02KM TEMP   14.71 14.67 15.31 15.48 15.27 14.38 13.53 13.45 13.79 14.57 14.78 13.53AVERAGE ELR   -5.85167 -5.82833 -5.70667 -5.56 -5.51333 -5.37 -5.415 -5.39833 -5.59 -5.71 -5.815 -5.89333

AVERAGE DRY ELR   -5.56556 -5.56556 -5.56556 -5.56556 -5.56556 -5.56556 -5.56556 -5.56556 -5.56556 -5.56556 -5.56556 -5.56556

AVERAGE WET ELR   -5.70972 -5.70972 -5.70972 -5.70972 -5.70972 -5.70972 -5.70972 -5.70972 -5.70972 -5.70972 -5.70972 -5.70972

Natal 12Z

MONTH   1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

                           AVERAGE CHANGE   0.583342 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! -0.69287 #DIV/0! 1.2259920.4658121.4963310.865918 #DIV/0!

AVERAGE ST CHANGE   1.01119 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! -0.04101 #DIV/0! 1.0713281.1604341.1665391.162777 #DIV/0!

AVERAGE DRY   #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

AVERAGE WET   #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

AVERAGE   #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

AVERAGE ST   #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

AVERAGE SURFACE TEMP   26.97 27.56 27.46 27.63 26.38 25.39 24.66 24.63 25.1 26.14 26.53 26.83

AVERAGE 10KM TEMP   -34.53 -33.63 -33.22 -32.43 -32.77 -33.45 -34.85 -34.38 -34.46 -34.14 -33.99 -35.09

AVERAGE 02KM TEMP   15.43 15.57 15.42 15.65 15.24 13.99 13.73 13.64 13.87 14.95 15.33 15.37

AVERAGE ELR   -5.56667 -5.61667 -5.57833 -5.5 -5.34167 -5.36333 -5.19 -5.10667 -5.22 -5.34 -5.43333 -5.53833AVERAGE DRY ELR   -5.43167 -5.43167 -5.43167 -5.43167 -5.43167 -5.43167 -5.43167 -5.43167 -5.43167 -5.43167 -5.43167 -5.43167

AVERAGE WET ELR   -5.3675 -5.3675 -5.3675 -5.3675 -5.3675 -5.3675 -5.3675 -5.3675 -5.3675 -5.3675 -5.3675 -5.3675

Natal 00Z

Further Research

Accuracy and precision of sensors Quantifying uncertainties in sounding

data Acquiring reliable and cost-effective

sounding data for the Amazon rainforest Increase in the amount of data

Acknowledgements UM Office of Research and Sponsored Programs UM Excellence Fund: Office of the Provost and

Vice President for Academic Affairs UM Department of Physics and Astronomy Montana Space Grant Consortium Entropika Anasphere Jennifer Fowler