The Idaho Economy Coming Back – Slowly

Idaho Department of LaborCommunications and Research

March 13, 2013

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun Jul

Aug Se

pO

ctN

ov Dec Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun Jul

Aug Se

pO

ctN

ov Dec Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun Jul

Aug Se

pO

ctN

ov Dec Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun Jul

Aug Se

pO

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Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun Jul

Aug Se

pO

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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

3.6%

8.8%Aug.-Nov.

2010

6.3%

Idaho’s Unemployment Rate2008-2012

MichiganMinnesota

VermontWisconsin

IndianaTennessee

OhioNorth Dakota

OregonAlabama

New HampshireOklahoma

South CarolinaKansas

VirginiaNebraska

IllinoisHawaii

KentuckyMissouri

MassachusettsSouth Dakota

DelawareMaine

UtahNew York

USNorth Carolina

AlaskaArizona

IowaMaryland

WashingtonPennsylvania

WyomingGeorgia

DCNew Jersey

West VirginiaArkansas

Rhode IslandFlorida

ColoradoCalifornia

TexasLouisiana

MississippiConnecticut

MontanaNew Mexico

IdahoNevada

-25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Percentage Change in Unemployment RateJune 2009 toDecember 2010

New HampshireNew Jersey

New YorkPennsylvania

DelawareIllinoisMaine

North CarolinaMaryland

IndianaNorth Dakota

ArkansasWest Virginia

ConnecticutRhode Island

WisconsinGeorgia

MassachusettsMississippi

AlaskaNew Mexico

South DakotaDCUS

VirginiaColoradoNebraskaMontana

OregonIowa

South CarolinaCaliforniaVermontKentucky

ArizonaKansas

OklahomaTennessee

MichiganWashington

HawaiiMinnesota

TexasWyomingAlabama

OhioLouisianaMissouri

IdahoFloridaNevada

Utah

-35.0% -30.0% -25.0% -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0%

Percentage Change In Unemployment RateDecember 2010 toDecember 2012

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Ju

n Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov De

cJa

nFe

bM

arAp

rM

ay Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov De

cJa

nFe

bM

arAp

rM

ay Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov De

cJa

nFe

bM

arAp

rM

ay Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov De

cJa

nFe

bM

arAp

rM

ay Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov De

c

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

670,000

680,000

690,000

700,000

710,000

720,000

730,000

740,000

727,691

690,215Nov 2009

725,543

Idaho's Total Employment2008-2012

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Ju

n Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov De

cJa

nFe

bM

arAp

rM

ay Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov De

cJa

nFe

bM

arAp

rM

ay Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov De

cJa

nFe

bM

arAp

rM

ay Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov De

cJa

nFe

bM

arAp

rM

ay Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov De

cJa

nFe

bM

arAp

rM

ay Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov De

cJa

nFe

bM

arAp

rM

ay Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov De

c

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

730,000

735,000

740,000

745,000

750,000

755,000

760,000

765,000

770,000

775,000

780,000

733,956

759,919

750,275

762,094

773,728April

774,653December

Idaho’s Labor Force2006-2012

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

245,662

172,000

229,364

183,823

141,108

182,465

New Hires

JAN

FEB

MA

RA

PRM

AY

JUN

JUL

AU

GSE

PO

CTN

OV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MA

RA

PRM

AY

JUN

JUL

AU

GSE

PO

CTN

OV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MA

RA

PRM

AY

JUN

JUL

AU

GSE

PO

CTN

OV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MA

RA

PRM

AY

JUN

JUL

AU

GSE

PO

CTN

OV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MA

RA

PRM

AY

JUN

JUL

AU

GSE

PO

CTN

OV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MA

RA

PRM

AY

JUN

JUL

AU

GSE

PO

CTN

OV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MA

RA

PRM

AY

JUN

JUL

AU

GSE

PO

CTN

OV

DEC

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

560,000

580,000

600,000

620,000

640,000

660,000

680,000 669,500June 2007

581,600January 2010

610,500June 2010

620,500June 2012

Monthly Idaho Nonfarm Jobs2006-2012

Recession

JAN

FEB

MA

RA

PRM

AY

JUN

JUL

AU

GSE

PO

CTN

OV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MA

RA

PRM

AY

JUN

JUL

AU

GSE

PO

CTN

OV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MA

RA

PRM

AY

JUN

JUL

AU

GSE

PO

CTN

OV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MA

RA

PRM

AY

JUN

JUL

AU

GSE

PO

CTN

OV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MA

RA

PRM

AY

JUN

JUL

AU

GSE

PO

CTN

OV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MA

RA

PRM

AY

JUN

JUL

AU

GSE

PO

CTN

OV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MA

RA

PRM

AY

JUN

JUL

AU

GSE

PO

CTN

OV

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

June 2006

April 2008

July 2009

October 2010

Year-Over-Year Percentage Change in Idaho Nonfarm Jobs

North DakotaDistrict of Columbia

TexasMichigan

UtahIndiana

KentuckyNew York

AlaskaTennesseeOklahoma

MassachusettsOhio

LouisianaSouth Carolina

MinnesotaVermontColorado

VirginiaWashington

PennsylvaniaSouth Dakota

CaliforniaMarylandNebraska

OregonNorth Carolina

GeorgiaFlorida

WyomingArizonaIllinois

IowaWest Virginia

DelawareArkansas

HawaiiMontana

KansasIdaho

New JerseyConnecticut

New HampshireMaine

WisconsinRhode Island

AlabamaMississippi

NevadaNew Mexico

Missouri

-4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%

Percentage ChangeIn Nonfarm JobsJune 2009-June 2012Idaho in Red, Border States in Green

Private Jobs

All Jobs

0 20,000,000 40,000,000 60,000,000 80,000,000 100,000,000 120,000,000 140,000,000 160,000,000

116,649,000

138,825,000

US Jobs June 2007

Private Jobs

All Jobs

0 20,000,000 40,000,000 60,000,000 80,000,000 100,000,000 120,000,000 140,000,000 160,000,000

8,383,000

7,821,000

US Jobs 2010

-5.6%

-7.2%

Private Jobs

All Jobs

0 20,000,000 40,000,000 60,000,000 80,000,000 100,000,000 120,000,000 140,000,000 160,000,000

3,941,000

3,552,000

US Jobs 2012

2.6%

3.4%

Private Jobs

All Jobs

300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 550,000 600,000 650,000 700,000

551,500

669,500

Idaho Jobs June 2007

Private Jobs

All Jobs

300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 550,000 600,000 650,000 700,000

61,200

59,000

Idaho Jobs June 2010

-8.8%

-11.1%

Private Jobs

All Jobs

300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 550,000 600,000 650,000 700,000

13,500

9,600

Idaho Jobs June 2012

1.4%

2.4%

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000Idaho Goods, Services Jobs

Goods Service

1990 Average Wage

$18,234

2011 Average Wage

$33,766

1990Average Wage

$23,791

2011 Average Wage

$43,784

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q22003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

$15

$16

$17

$18

$19

$20

$21

$22

$23 $22.27Q3 2008

$20.77Q1 2010

$22.03Q2 2012

Idaho Wages 2003-2012Annualized on a Quarterly Basis

(In Billions)

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012$1,000,000,000

$2,000,000,000

$3,000,000,000

$4,000,000,000

$5,000,000,000

$6,000,000,000

$7,000,000,000

$6.3 BillionQ1 2008

$4.8 BillionQ1 2009

$6.4 BillionQ2 2011

$6.9 BillionQ3 2012

Idaho Business ProfitsAnnualized on a Quarterly Basis

2007200720082008200920092010201020112011201220122013201320142014201420142015201520162016201720172017201820182019201920202020500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

700,000

750,000

800,000

Job Growth Rates to Return to Pre-Recession Levels

2.2% Growth Rate Long-Term Projection of a 1.6% Growth RateExisting 1.2% Growth Rate Pre-Recession Levels

Peaked at 669,500 Jobs in June 2007

59,000 jobs lost from June 2007 to June 2010.

Idaho’s Silver Tsunami?

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

In and Out MigrationDriver’s Licenses – State of Idaho

IN OUT NET

22 and younger

22 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 and older0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Idaho Interstate UI ClaimsWho’ s moving in, who’s moving

out?Week of Jan. 12, 2013

In-coming Unemployed Claims (to Idaho) Out-going Unemployed Claims (out of Idaho)

1990 2000 20110%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

19.5% 19.5% 19.5%

0.1%5.1%

Percent of Idaho Population 55 and Older

AlaskaVermont

New HampshireColoradoMichigan

MaineMontana

New MexicoWashington

OregonWyoming

IdahoGeorgia

South CarolinaHawaii

MinnesotaCaliforniaDelawareMaryland

OhioWisconsinLouisiana

VirginiaUtah

TennesseeKentucky

North CarolinaMississippi

West VirginiaIllinois

IndianaMassachusetts

TexasArizona

Rhode IslandNevada

AlabamaConnecticut

New YorkSouth Dakota

MissouriKansas

NebraskaNorth Dakota

New JerseyIowa

PennsylvaniaOklahoma

ArkansasFlorida

District of Columbia

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

26.3%

Percent Increase inShare of Population55 and OlderFrom 2000 to 2011

Idaho Population55 and Older1990: 19.5%2000: 19.6%2011: 24.7%

NebraskaMaine

New JerseyDC

New MexicoNew York

KansasConnecticut

OklahomaHawaii

MarylandCalifornia

MassachusettsTexas

Rhode IslandMinnesota

PennsylvaniaIllinois

WashingtonUS

UtahColorado

IowaAlabamaMontana

North DakotaIndiana

MississippiDelaware

FloridaArizona

West VirginiaLouisiana

OhioGeorgia

MissouriNevadaVirginia

WisconsinKentuckyArkansas

South CarolinaNorth Carolina

South DakotaOregon

TennesseeAlaska

MichiganNew Hampshire

VermontWyoming

Idaho

-2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0%

Percent Increase inHouseholds With Householder or Spouse Not in Labor Force2007 to 2011

Percent of IdahoHouseholds WithNeither Adult in

Labor Force2007: 16.5%2011: 20.1%

Questions?

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