The Hong Kong Student Review of Political Science Spring 2013 (1)

8/13/2019 The Hong Kong Student Review of Political Science Spring 2013 (1)

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The Editorial Board

Editor-in-chief

Eugene Y.T. Cheng

The Hong Kong Student Review of Polical Science

(SRPS) is published and owned by the Polics and Pub-

lic Administraon Associaon SSS HKUSU. It is a non-

parsan student journal which aims to promote the

study of polics and public administraon and facilitate

the intellectual exchange between students and aca-

demics.

Editorial Statement

Polics and Public Administraon Associaon SSS HKUSU

Session 2012-2013

Chairman

Joseph S.X. Chen

Internal Vice Chairman

Spencer P.K. Lam

External Vice Chairman

Janice Y.T. Tang

General Secretary

Ada P.Y. Wong

Financial Secretary

Alta C.K. Ho

Publicaon Secretary

Eugene Y.T. Cheng

Publicity Secretary

Kevin K.W. Lam

Current Aairs Secretary

Wallace T.H. Wu

Chinese Current Aairs

Secretary

Ann M.H. Wong

Academic Secretary

Rex L.T. Leung

Markeng OcerMimi Y.M. Cheung

Public Relaons Ocer

Adele K.P. Chiu

Social Secretary

Zoe K.W. Cheung

Welfare Secretary

Cherry W.M. Leung

Honorary President

Prof. Joseph C.W. Chan

Head, Department of Polics and Public Administra-

on, The University of Hong Kong

The Editorial Board of the Hong Kong Student Review

of Polical Science (SRPS), formerly known as the Bul-

len, was founded in 1977. It is a sub-commiee un-

der the Execuve Commiee of Polics and Public

Administraon Associaon SSS HKUSU, The University of

Hong Kong.

The views expressed in the various arcles represent

those of the authors and not the Associaon. The ar-

cles included in SRPS may not be represented in any

form without the wrien permission of the authors.


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Page Content

4

10 Why Africa deserves our aenon?Alex M.H. Wong

14 The More Violence, the Less Revoluon

Why Nonviolent Resistance is More Likely to Succeed and Lead to Transion to a

Stable Democracy

Mahew L.C. Choi

20

21

22 Funcons Review

30 Acknowledgement


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Editors Note

I am pleased to introduce to you the Hong Kong Student Review of Polical Science (SRPS) Spring 2013 Issue.

SRPS serves as a plaorm for students to share and express their views on the study of polical science and current

aairs, not only with fellow schoolmates but also with the public at large.

In this issue, students from our university submied their arcles concerning a wide range of topics related to po-

lical science, including peoples negligence of Africa, civil disobedience, Hong Kongs policies in property market

and the recent increased tension in Northeast Asia, which centred upon North Korea. The diversied submissions

and the wide range of topics covered will surely bring you interesng and new perspecves of polics.

On behalf of the Associaon, I would like to express my hearelt gratude to the Hon Gary Fan Kwok-

wai for ac-cepng our invitaon to the interview, all the students who have contributed to this issue of the SRPS and the edi-

torial board who have worked restlessly to make this issue a reality.

I sincerely hope that you would enjoy reading this issue.

Eugene Y.T. Cheng

Editor-in-chief

The Hong Kong Student Review of Polical Science


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The day will come when history will speak. But it will

not be the history which will be taught in Brussels, Paris,

Washington or the United Naons.Africa will write its

own history and in both north and south it will be a his-

tory of glory and dignity.

---Patrice Lumumba

President Xi Jinpings visit to the three African countries

of Tanzania, the Republic of Congo and South Africa in

March once again highlights the importance of Africa on

the internaonal stage.

However, how well do we know about Africa?

Research asymmetry

Though the Sino-African relaon is always the focus of

the media, a recent commentary by Tu Huazhong of

Tsinghua University that appears on Global Times, the

ocial newspaper of the Communist Party of China,

warns about the detrimental consequences of ignoring

research in Lan, Asian and African countries.

The number of Chinese research papers wrien by schol-

ars on social science problems in Africa reveals how se-

vere the problem is: while there are only around 2000

papers that cover Africa, the ones that cover the USA,

Japan and Europe is 23 mes, 11 mes and 6 mes over

the African one respecvely; for English papers pub-

lished in journals similar imbalance exists: there are

around 110 papers wrien by Chinese social science

scholars (HK included) on Africa and the number of pa-

pers covering the USA, Japan and Europe is at least 2mes more.

Figure 1. The lack of academic interest on Africa

Considering the fact that Africa is a huge connent com-

posed of 55 countries that allows the USA, Europe, Chi-

na, Japan and India to t in simultaneously, the lack of

academic interest in Africa will bring unbearable conse-

quences to China which is going to be increasingly acve

in the region. And this threat is more real than ever as

demonstrated by incidents like the an-Chinese waves

across Tanzania in 2006 and 2008 as well as the dicult

posion of China in the South Sudan secession move-

ment.

Why Africa deserves our aenon?

Alex M.H. Wong

Bachelor of Social Sciences II

The University of Hong Kong


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A recent mistake made by the South China Morning Postin mixing up the data on Chinas investment in Africa and

Sino-African trade further illustrates this point.

As polical science students, Africa has a very high

chance of being the next froner in polical science as

the connent has changed dramacally (beer than

most of us think of). And if you are a Chinese, you beer

start to pay more aenon to this connent as our na-

onal interest is closely ed with it.

But understanding starts with the eliminaon of com-

mon stereotypes.

When we talk about Africa, the following images inevita-

bly pop up in our minds: a skinny black child with a big

belly surrounded by ies; children carrying AK-47s on

their shoulders, etc. A Google search of Africa children

will return the suggeson of starving, poverty,

soldier, not to menon the black and white photo-

graphs of starving children in case of picture search.

This is no longer the whole story of Africa.

Every 60 seconds in Africa.a minute passes

Once dubbed as The hopeless connent by The Econo-

mist in 2000, Africa today is a vibrant connent that are

being honored by dierent names: A hopeful connentaccording to The Economist in March, 2013; Lions on

the move according to McKinsey Global Instute in

2010 and Africa Rising by Time Magazine in 2011. The-

se opmisc names are not buzzwords, together they

are giving a hopeful forecast that Africa will one day be

able to fulll the vision that was once dreamt by the

great African leader Patrice Lumumba.

Here is the evidence to support the claim: average GDPgrowth of the 55 Africa states is over 6%; six of the ten

fastest growing economies come from Africa; real in-

come per person has increased by more than 30% over

the past decades; Africas middle-class populaon that

accounts for 34% of the total populaon will become

engines for socio-economic and polical growth; civil

wars were 50% less common than a decade ago; 60% of

the worlds arable but unculvated land lies in Africa; by

2060 extreme poverty will be eliminated as most African

states join the group of upper-middle-income countries;

demographic dividend that is yet to come will furtherdrive the development as Africa will become the young-

est connent with over 70% of working populaon, the

happy numbers go on and on.

Cauous opmism

However, we must not fool ourselves with shear op-

mism. The roads leading towards the bright future is go-

ing to be a bumpy route lled with pialls and hurdles.

Some of the most pressing challenges that Africa faces

include: massive inequality (half of the connents popu-

laon sll lives on less than $1.25USD a day); poor infra-

structure (hard and so ones); the urgent need to elimi-

nate hunger (239 million people over the connent go to

bed hungry every night); job creaon (studies show that

wars are more likely to break out in regions with a high

number of youthful populaons if job issues are not re-

solved); resource curse; urbanizaon at a break-neck

speed etc.

The challenges that Africa faces are tough, but they are

far from impossible to overcome. This is especially true

when a new generaon of African leaders like Paul Ka-

game of Rwanda; Joyce Banda of Malawi and Ellen John-

son Sirleaf of Liberia who are determined to ulize their

knowledge and skills in leading their countries towards a

bright future.


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Take the case of Rwanda as example. Rwanda is a coun-try where the most ecient genocide in history took

place in 1994 when more than one million of its people

were being slaughtered in only 100 days out of ethnical

reason. When the Rwanda Patrioc Front led by Paul

Kagame overthrew the genocidal regime and took con-

trol, the country was short of everything except for one

thing---corpses. Nonetheless, under the leadership of

Paul Kagame , the admirable spirit of Rwandan people as

well as the (delayed) support of the internaonal com-

munity, Rwanda today is a beacon for the connent:

Rwanda is expected to achieve most of the eight Millen-nium Development Goals (MDGs) on me before 2015;

its GDP grew more than 70% between 1995 and 2001;

less than 50% of its populaon are now living in poverty.

All these gures are impressive, its even more jaw-

dropping when we nd that Rwanda is a land-locked

country; it doesnt have major resources like oil and its

next to the Democrac Republic of Congo, the main

baleeld of Africas World War.

Rwanda is not an excepon, many more successful sto-ries can be found across the connent: Botswana,

Mozambique and Maurius are among them.

If Rwanda can make it as the poster child as Africas suc-

cess story, it will be logical to say that the rest of the 54

countries are capable of doing so given the right leader-

ship decide to do the right thing in developing their

countries according to their unique circumstances.

The dragon meets the lion

Presidents Xis visit to the three African countries aer

his Russian trip is hardly a surprise. China has a long his-

tory of engaging with African countries. While some

Western governments try to share their own history as

colonial powers with China by applying the term neo -

colonial to describe Chinas presence in Africa, a remark-

able piece of work by Deborah Braugam1 provides a

powerful case against the claim that China is a neo -

colonist.

While there are always realist reasons behind Chinasmoves in Africa, the Sino-African relaon is the only

relaon that the ocial descripon is friendship. In

fact, Chinese leaders since Mao have a tendency of refer-

ring the African people as brothers. But under the veil

of comradeship, its sheer business.

The current engagement of China towards Africa is more

than just resource exploitaon. The cumulave invest-

ment of China of various kinds in Africa is somewhere

between US$16 billion to US$40 billion with over 70% ofChinas foreign direct investment concentrated in Nige-

ria, Sudan, South Africa, Zambia and Algeria. In addion,

trade between these two giants is more than US$200

billion in 2012. To tap the potenal of the huge market in

which consumer spending is going to reach US$1.4 tril-

lion by 2020, there are more than 2000 Chinese rms

doing business in telecommunicaons, energy, manufac-

turing and agriculture that have seled in Africa. All of

these numbers are going to rise much further.

With these gures in mind, we beer prepare ourselves

as the day that we are sent to an African state for a short

business trip is likely to happen in the near future.

Aer all, you dont want to act like an idiot in front of

your boss by mixing up Maurius (an island located in

the Indian Ocean) and Mauritania (in West Africa) as

President Nixon once did.

Together, we go far and also go fast

As the African proverb goes If you want to go fast, go

alone. If you want to go far, go together, the future of

Africa is going to be fast and far, fast in a sense that the

speed of growth in all aspects is unprecedented, far in a

sense that the impact and opportunies will be felt by

each and every one of us.


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Africa is rising. Theres no doubt about it. But the rise willnot be a smooth one.

But if we are to take advantage of the emergence of the

hopeful connent as a businessman/businesswoman, a

polical science student, a naonal cizen or a global

cizen, we must bridge the research gap between the

study of Africa and the rest of the world.

Together, we are going to fulll the wish that Lumumba

and many other great Africans have died for: to write a

bright new chapter of this Dark Connent.

References

1. Braugam, D. (2009) The Dragons Gi: The Real Story

of China in Africa.New York, Oxford University Press.


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The More Violence, the Less Revoluon

Why Nonviolent Resistance is More Likely to Succeed and Lead to Tran-

sion to a Stable Democracy

Mahew L.C. Choi

Bachelor of Social Sciences (Government and Laws) II


There is a prevailing view, or indeed a myth, among po-

lical sciensts, that the threat or the use of violence isthe most eecve strategy in a polical contenon.

However, there is overwhelming empirical evidence

which shows that nonviolent resistance is more eecve

in bringing about regime change. Moreover, empirical

evidence also reveals that nonviolent resistance is con-

ducive to transion to a stable democracy. This arcle

shall explain why.

(Note that the arcle does not suggest that nonviolent

resistance should be adopted as a strategy in every con-tenon. Nor does the arcle aempt to answer the mor-

al or philosophical queson of whether, or in what cir-

cumstances, civil disobedience is jused.)

Nonviolent Resistance: Emergence of the Concept and

its Religious Roots

Nonviolent resistance, according to Marn Luther King

and Mahatma Gandhi, is a civilian-based form of struggle

in a contenon that employs social, economic and poli-

cal forms of power outside instuonal methods of po-

lical change, without resorng to violence or the threat

of violence.

The term civil disobedience was rst proposed by in

1849 by Henry Thoreau, who advocated that Americans

at the me should stop paying tax to oppose slavery and

the Mexican-American War which he considered unjust.

The concept of nonviolent resistance also has its reli-

gious roots. Gandhi invoked the Buddhist and Hindu no-on of ahimsa (literally: nonviolence), and called his

nonviolent movement against the Brish colonial regime

satyagraha (literally: the force of truth).

The concept of civil disobedience nds its support in the

Chrisan natural law tradion. Thomas Aquinas suggest-

ed that when an unjust law contravenes a higher law,

the unjust law does not bind cizens in conscience . Even

if a revoluon, as the last resort, is necessary in extreme

circumstances, as suggested by John Locke, only the useof minimal force is permied against unjust govern-

ments. This is contrasted with the Marxist concepon of

revoluon as the violent destrucon of the exisng so-

cial, economic and polical order. Chrisans who en-

gaged in resistance movements in history include Die-

trich Bonhoeer, a German pastor who played a crucial

role in the underground resistance against the Nazi dic-

tatorship under Adolf Hitler, and needless to say, Marn

Luther King.

Empirical Evidence: Likelihood of Success and Prospect

of Democracy

Aer an introducon to the concept of nonviolent re-

sistance, we now turn to empirical data on the likelihood

of success of violent and nonviolent means of resistance,

and the likelihood of transion to a stable democracy.

Recent research projects on the topic include the study

published in 2005 by Adrian Karatnycky and Peter Acker-

man, and another published in 2011 by Erica Chenowethand Maria Stephan.


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Firstly, empirical data shows that nonviolent resistance ismore eecve in bringing about regime change. The

study by Karatnycky and Ackerman, of 67 countries

where authoritarian regimes were dismantled since

1972, found that in 50 of these 67 transions, or over

70% of countries, regime changes were the result of non-

violent resistance.

In the study by Chenoweth and Maria Stephan, of 323

resistance campaigns between 1900 and 2006, 53% of

nonviolent movements successfully achieved their goals,

compared with only 26% when violent taccs were em-

ployed.

Secondly, nonviolent resistance is more conducive to the

building of stable democrac instuons aer the regime

change.The study of Karatnycky and Ackerman revealed

that, in 18 countries where cohesive and strong civic coa-

lions emerged with lile or no violent repression by the

authoritarian regime, 17 became Free states according

to Freedom House Rangs.

The prospects for civil and polical rights aer the re-

gime change are signicantly beer when the opposion

refrains from using violence, even when there is violent

repression. In the 12 countries, where the authories

employed violent force, but the opposion resisted by

nonviolent means, nearly 60% were Free in 2005,

while others were Partly Free. By contrast, in the 20

countries in which both the government and the opposi-

on used violence, only 20% of the countries were

Free, while 60% were Partly Free, and 20% wereNot Free.

The study by Chenoweth and Maria Stephan yielded sim-

ilar results. Among countries with average levels of de-

mocracy at the end of the conict, a country aer a non-

violent movement, whether successful or not, is over

40% likelier to be democrac ve years aer the conict,

than a country where violent resistance occurred.

The results are even more striking when the sample isrestricted to successful movements, in which the proba-

bility that a country will be a democracy 5 years aer a

movement is 57% among successful nonviolent cam-

paigns, compared with less than 6% among successful

violent insurgencies.

Furthermore, Chenoweth and Stephan found that nonvi-

olent resistance is conducive to civil peace. Countries in

which a violent campaign has occurred have a 42% prob-

ability of experiencing civil war within 10 years, com-

pared with 28% in countries where nonviolent resistance

occurred.

Argument 1: Nonviolent Resistance is More Eecve in

Inducing Regime Change

Before discussing the reasons why nonviolent resistance

is more likely to succeed, it should be noted that the

most fundamental dierence between the strategies of

violent and nonviolent means of resistance is their un-

derlying concepons of polical power.

On one hand, violent resistance reects a monolithic

concepon of state power. Since there is absolute ine-

quality of power within the regime, which possesses

enormous polical, economic and military power, and

cizens, the only possible means to overthrow an au-

thoritarian regime is to create an armed force that gains

sucient strength to destroy the states military and dis-

mantle the states instuons.

On the other hand, nonviolent resistance reects a rela-

onal view of polical power. Cizens possess various

types of power that they may either grant to rulers, or

withhold it (for example, stop buying goods of state -

owned enterprises, refuse to work or refuse to pay tax-

es), so as to cause massive disrupon to clog the ma-

chinery of the regime. As we shall see, this dierence in

concepon of state power is highly relevant to the two

strategies likelihood of success.


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Chenoweth and Stephan argue that the success of nonvi-olent resistance is in mass parcipaon. Their argument

is two-fold. First, nonviolent movements allow higher

level of mass parcipaon. Second, high level of mass

parcipaon is crucial to the success of a resistance

movement.

The study of Chenoweth and Stephan found that, among

the 25 largest resistance campaigns between 1900 and

2006, 20 have been nonviolent. Moreover, among the 20

nonviolent movements, 70% were successful, while only

2 out of the 5 violent campaigns were successful. In oth-

er words, among these mass movements, nonviolent

resistance were much more likely to succeed.

Why Nonviolent Resistance Aracts More Parcipants

On one hand, compared with violent resistance, nonvio-

lent resistance facilitate the acve parcipaon of many

more people. The study of Chenoweth and Stephan

showed that nonviolent resistance were persistently as-

sociated with higher levels of membership.

Firstly, physical barrier to parcipaon is lower for nonvi-olent resistance, as cizens from diverse sectors of soci-

ety, even female cizens and the elderly, can parcipate

in a range of acons such as labour strike, consumer

boycos and sit-ins.

Secondly, compared with nonviolent resistance, many

sympathizers of violent resistance are reluctant to parc-

ipate because they believe that it is immoral to commit

violence.

Thirdly, nonviolent movements are more likely to over-

come informaonal dicules. Since they rely less on

underground acvies, they are more visible to the ci-

zens. Furthermore, in many nonviolent movements, es-

pecially in the Colour Revoluon in some Eastern Euro-

pean states in the early 2000s, the organizers incorpo-

rated elements such as concerts and drama performanc-

es into the campaign to aract young cizens.


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Secondly, the use of nonviolent means in transion driv-en by nonviolent resistance strengthens cizens expec-

taon that the post-conict polical regime will also be

nonviolent in its relaonship with constuents. Even

when governments who come to power following nonvi-

olent revoluons use violence when challenged by non-

violent movements, the countrys past experience con-

strains the behaviour of the post-conict regime. In Thai-

land, with a long history of nonviolent popular move-

ment, the police are not permied to carry rearms

when responding to nonviolent movements. In May

2010, security forces acted with restraint when facingthe black shirt protestors, and used violence only

when provoked by violence.

Why Regimes Established aer Violent Resistance Tend

to have a Violent Polical Culture

By contrast, regimes established aer successful violent

movements usually failed to develop a stable and reliable

polical order that resolves conicts through nonviolent

means. This was evident in Libya, more than one year

aer Colonel Gadda was overthrown by violent insur-

gencies. Milias sll refused to disarm, and carried out

violent revenge to detain and beat suspected sympa-

thizers of Gadda.

The following explains why countries aer successful

violent insurgencies are likely to fall into a vicious cycle

of violence.

During a violent insurgency, the feeling of insecurity pre-

vails among armed insurgents, especially given the fear

and memories associated with a high level of casualty in

extremely violent circumstances. Owing to the strong

sense of insecurity, a winner-take-all polical culture

develops, rather than one which deals with conicts

through negoaon and compromise.

As a result, even aer compromise has been reached

among armed pares, rival facons may interpret seem-ingly innocuous moves by their opponents as a violaon

of the terms of selement, and, through responses of

their own, contribute to the breakdown of selement. In

Afghanistan, brutal civil war broke out almost immedi-

ately aer violent insurgencies ousted Soviet forces in1989.

Why Nonviolent Resistance is Conducive to Democracy

Nonviolent resistance is conducive to the building of

democrac and consensual instuons.

Campaigns that rely on a nonviolent strategy are more

likely to use consent, leading to the establishment of

more democracally oriented parallel instuons that

might aid in the transion to a democrac system when

the conict has ended. In South Africa, during the nonvi-

olent an-apartheid campaign, popularly elected local

governments and courts in black townships usurped the

authority of apartheid regime-appointed administrators

and judges, long before majority rule came to the coun-

try as a whole.

Why Countries aer Successful Violent Resistance Tendto Backslide into Authoritarianism

By contrast, most countries aer successful armed insur-

gencies lapsed into authoritarianism.

Firstly, successful campaigns that rely primarily on vio-

lent methods are more likely to operate by means of se-

crecy and maral values. Such values tend to reinforce

themselves in the post-conict regime, as armed insur-

gents in Cuba and Afghanistan installed closed and secre-

ve dictatorships following their victories.

Secondly, when a new government is established aer

violent overthrow of a regime, the new government may

be tempted to connue to use violence to purge remain-

ing members of the old guard, as in the case of Libyan

milias. This phenomenon is unlikely in the aermath of

successful nonviolent movements, since a sizable poron

of regime supporters have oen been co-opted into the

nonviolent opposion.


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1985

50


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1950-1953

2020

600


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Funcons ReviewPastpaper Distribuon

This event was held from 4th to 6th December, 2012 outside James Hsioung Lee Science Building from 2pm to 6pm.

Members studying Polics and Public Administraon courses picked up past papers at our counter. The following

pastpapers were distributed.

At the same me, members collected the POLITIKA Annual Journal 2012. It was esmated that around 100 members

came to our counter to collect the materials.

POLI0005 Capitalism and social jusce

POLI0019 Hong Kong and the world

POLI0040 Public sector management

POLI0052 Internaonal relaons of East Asia

POLI0062 Polical analysis

POLI0080 Global polical economy

POLI0094 Polical parcipaon: why and how?

POLI0095 Civil society and governance

POLI1003 Making sense of polics


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2 13 1 24


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Mega Sale 2013

Mulplex, the annual Mega Sale of the PPAA, has successfully come to an end with the endeavors of our commiee

members and the tremendous support of all of you.

The Mega Sale is an annual fund-raising event of the PPAA in which the prot earned will be used to facilitate the oper-

aon of the Associaon, to organize dierent forums and symposiums which help to raise the publics awareness of

current aairs. This year, we oered a wide variety of products for sale in order to cater to the needs of dierent peo-

ple, from the luscious snacks to the exquisite staonery and ornaments, not to menon our newly -designed zip-up

hoodies which have aracted spate of supporters and boosted up our overall revenue.


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The 40th Inauguraon Ceremony

The 40th Inauguraon Ceremony was successfully held on 4thFebruary, 2013 in Rayson Huang Theatre.

At the Inauguraon Ceremony, the

members of the Execuve Commiee

Session 2012-2013 was introduced

and formally inaugurated. This signi-

es a connuaon of the associaon

and marks the commencement of the

new session.

Speech was given by The Hon Sin Chung -kai, SBS, JP, Member of the Legislave Council,and Mr. Alan C. L. Lau, chair-man of session 2011-2012 at the Ceremony.


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2013 1973

2013 3 28


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2013

2013

3 20

3 22 1999


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Fotomax

Swindon Book Co Ltd.

EGG Opcal Bouque

Yazhou Zhoukan

META Magazine

Acknowledgement

Submission of Arcles

The SRPS welcomes arcles on polical science or public administraon, as well as commentaries on current aairsand polical incidents wrien by students. Arcles of any topic on any stance are welcomed. Should you have any en-

quiries, please feel free to contact us via [email protected].

Address:

c/o Department of Polics and Public Administraon,

The University of Hong Kong,

Pokfulam Road,

Hong Kong

Website: hp://www.hku/hk/ppaa

Email: [email protected]

Associaon Oce:

Room 931, The Jockey Club Tower, Centennial Campus,



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Documents

The Hong Kong Student Review of Political Science Spring 2013 (1)