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The global CFRP market 2015
Dipl.-Ing. Michael Kühnel, Dipl.-Phys. Thomas Kraus
ICC, Stuttgart, September 21st 2015
Slide 2
The global CFRP market 2015
The global CFRP market 2015
Sour
ce: W
ikip
edia
Slide 3
Overview 1 The global Carbon
Fiber market 1.1 By manufacturer 1.2 By region 1.3 By application
2 The global Carbon Composites market 2.1 By matrix 2.2 By process 2.3 By region 2.4 By application
3 Trends and outlook
4. Conclusion and sources
The global CFRP market 2015
The global CFRP market 2015
Sour
ce: W
ikip
edia
Slide 4
1 The global Carbon Fiber market
The global CFRP market 2015
Carbon fiber plant of SGL Automotive Carbon Fibers (ACF) in Moses Lake in 2014 and 2015 (small image), source: BMW and SGL ACF
Slide 5
27 33
39 44 47
53 58
65
92
116
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* 2016* 2019* 2021*
Global demand of Carbon Fibers in thousand tonnes from 2009 to 2021 (* estimations)
1 The global Carbon Fiber market
The global CFRP market 2015
Constant compound annual growth rate (CAGR) ca. 11-14%
𝐴𝐴 𝑡𝑡𝑛𝑛 = 𝐴𝐴 𝑡𝑡1 1 + 𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 𝑛𝑛
𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 𝑡𝑡1, 𝑡𝑡𝑛𝑛 =𝐴𝐴 𝑡𝑡𝑛𝑛𝐴𝐴 𝑡𝑡1
1𝑛𝑛− 1
Slide 6
21,1
9,0 11,5 11,1 8,8 7,2 4,0 1,8 9,2
6,0
3,0 -2,4
4,0 1,7 3,0
6,2
17,4
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
35,0
40,0
45,0
Yearly CF capacity 2013 Growth 2014 Zoltek
1.1 By manufacturer Annual, theoretical CF capacity by manufacturer in thousand tons (2014). ∑ = 125 kt (2013: 105 kt +19%)
1 The global Carbon Fiber market
The global CFRP market 2015
SGL ACF Moses Lake
Ramp-up 9 + 6 = 15 kt/a
Toray + Zoltek Fusion 44,5 kt/a
Toho closure Rockwood line
Slide 7
1.2 By region Annual, theoretical CF capacity by regions in thousand tons (2014).
1 The global Carbon Fiber market
The global CFRP market 2015
USA & Mexico; 39.3; 31%
Japan; 25.0; 20%
China; 12.8; 10%
Taiwan; 8.8; 7%
Hungary; 8.1; 7%
South Korea; 8,1; 6%
Germany; 5.8; 5%
France; 5.2; 4%
Great Britain; 4.0; 3% RoW; 8.1; 7%
Total: 125,000 t
Slide 8
1.3 By application Global CF demand (PAN based) in thousand tons by application (2014)
1 The global Carbon Fiber market
The global CFRP market 2015
Aerospace & Defence; 15.4; 29%
Automotive; 8.5; 16%
Wind Turbines; 7.4; 14%
Sport & Leisure, 6.4, 12%
Molding & Compound; 5.8;
11%
Pressure Vessels; 2.7; 5%
Civil Engineering; 2.3; 4%
Marine; 0.8; 2% Others; 3.7; 7%
Total: 53,000 t
= 42,4% of the theoretical CF
capacity (125 kt)
Slide 9
1.3 By application Global CF revenues in US$ million by application (2014)
1 The global Carbon Fiber market
The global CFRP market 2015
Aerospace & Defence; 950.4;
48%
Automotive; 217.8; 11%
Sport & Leisure; 205.9; 10%
Wind Turbines; 170.3; 9%
Molding & Compound; 142.6;
7%
Pressure Vessels; 79.2; 4%
Civil Engineering; 75.2; 4%
Marine; 19.8; 1% Others; 118.8; 6%
Total: US$ 1.98 billion
Slide 10
2 The global Carbon Composites market
The global CFRP market 2015
BMW i3 production plant Leipzig CFRP bodywork, source: BMW
Slide 11
41 51
59 66 72
83 91
101
140
175
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* 2016* 2019* 2021*
Global demand of CFRP in thousand tonnes from 2009 to 2021 (* estimations)
2 The global Carbon Composites market
The global CFRP market 2015
Constant compound annual growth rate (CAGR) ca. 10-15%
𝐴𝐴 𝑡𝑡𝑛𝑛 = 𝐴𝐴 𝑡𝑡1 1 + 𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 𝑛𝑛
𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 𝑡𝑡1, 𝑡𝑡𝑛𝑛 =𝐴𝐴 𝑡𝑡𝑛𝑛𝐴𝐴 𝑡𝑡1
1𝑛𝑛− 1
Slide 12
2.1 By matrix CC revenues in US$ billion by matrix (2014)
2 The global Carbon Composites market
The global CFRP market 2015
Carbon; 2.24; 13%
Ceramic; 1.66; 10%
Metal; 1.24; 8%
Hybrid; 0.84; 5%
Thermoplastic; 2.55; 15%
Thermoset; 8.08; 49% Polymer;
10.63; 64%
Total: US$ 16.6 billion
Slide 13
2.2 By processes With CFRP production processes generated amounts in thousand tonnes (2014)
2 The global Carbon Composites market
The global CFRP market 2015
Prepreg layup process with /
without autoclave; 37.8; 45%
Pultrusion and winding; 21.6; 26%
Wet lamination & infusion
processes; 8.7; 11%
Press and injection processes; 8.3;
10%
Others; 6.6; 8% Total: 83,000 t
Slide 14
2.3 By region CC demand in thousand tonnes by region (2014)
2 The global Carbon Composites market
The global CFRP market 2015
North America; 40.0; 38%
Europe; 36.8; 35%
Asia & Pacific; 24.2; 23%
RoW; 4.2; 4% Total: 105,200 t
Slide 15
2 The global Carbon Composites market
The global CFRP market 2015
Rotor blade production at Aalborg plant, source: Siemens
Slide 16
2.4 By application CC demand in thousand tonnes by application (2014)
2 The global Carbon Composites market
The global CFRP market 2015
Aerospace & Defence; 32.2; 31%
Automotive; 21.8; 21%
Wind Turbines; 13.2; 12%
Sport & Leisure; 13.2; 12%
Civil Engneering; 5.0; 5%
Marine; 1.4; 1% Others; 18.5; 18% Total: 105,200 t
Slide 17
2.4 By application CC revenues in US$ billion by application (2014)
2 The global Carbon Composites market
The global CFRP market 2015
Aerospace & Defence; 10.2; 62%
Automotive; 1.9; 11%
Wind Turbines; 1.3; 8%
Sport & Leisure; 1.2; 7%
Civil Engineering; 0.4; 2%
Marine; 0.1; 1% Others; 1.5; 9% Total: US$ 16.6 billion
Aerospace & Defence: 317 US$/kg Wind Turbines: 98 US$/kg Automotive: 87 US$/kg Sport & Leisure: 91 US$/kg
∅
Slide 18
3 Trends and outlook
The global CFRP market 2015
Installation of a textile reinforced concrete bridge in Kempten, source: Wikipedia
Slide 19
Estimated development of CC demand in thousand tonnes
3 Trends and outlook
The global CFRP market 2015
32.2
60.3
21.8
65.5
25.9
13.2 19.6
5.0 10.8
1.4 3.1
18.5
34.8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
CC
dem
and
in 1
,000
t Aerospace & DefenceAutomotiveWind TurbinesSport & LeisureCivil EngineeringMarineOthers
Total 2021: 220,000 t
Total 2014: 105,200 t
Slide 20
4 Conclusion
The global CFRP market 2015
A350 section 13/14 assembly in Nordenham,
Source: Premium AEROTEC
Slide 21
Core messages and forecast
• The golbal CF and CC market is and stays a promising business field with stable annual growth rates of 10-15% over several years.
• The pressure of competition for CC increases because of hybrid lightweight material mixes (use of CC only where necessary and useful).
• Cost savings in material and production costs will be essential for an increasing share of CC in future applications.
• But: The market behaviour is more inertial than expected positive as well as negative outliers not to be expected
• Stimulation by taxes and laws (e.g. in automotive and wind energy sector) can bring additional dynamics into the CF and CC market.
4 Conclusion
The global CFRP market 2015
Dipl.-Ing. Michael Kühnel
Carbon Composites e.V. Alter Postweg 101 D-86159 Augsburg [email protected] Phone: +49 821 / 319874-1052 Mobile: +49 172 / 5848242
Thank you very much for your attention. Questions?
Slide 23
Literature
Sources
The global CFRP market 2015
[1] Lucintel LLC, „Assessment of Global Carbon Fiber and Carbon Composites Market,“ 2015.
[2] Lucintel LLC, Growth Opportunities in Global Carbon Fibre Market: 2014-2019, Irving, USA, 2014.
[3] Acmite Market Intelligence e.K., Market Report: Global Carbon Fiber Composite Market, Ratingen, 2014.
[4] Toray Global, „Production Capacity Toray Group,“ 04 2015. [Online]. Available: http://www.toray.com/ir/management/man_010.html. [Zugriff am 31 08 2015].
[5] Toray Global, „Press Releases Toray Group,“ 09 03 2012. [Online]. Available: http://www.toray.com/news/crb/nr120309.html. [Zugriff am 31 08 2015].
[6] Mitsubishi Plastics, Inc., Mitsubishi Rayon Co., Ltd., „News Release: Enhancement of the Carbon Fiber Business,“ 07 01 2015. [Online]. Available: http://www.mpi.co.jp/english/news/201501070751.html. [Zugriff am 13 08 2015].
[7] Mitsubishi Rayon, „Mitsubishi Rayon Pressroom,“ 30 06 2014. [Online]. Available: https://www.mrc.co.jp/english/pressroom/detail/pdf/20140630192937.pdf. [Zugriff am 28 07 2015].
[8] BMW Group, „BMW Group PresseClub Deutschland,“ 09 05 2014. [Online]. Available: https://www.press.bmwgroup.com/deutschland/pressDetail.html?title=bmw-group-und-sgl-group-verdreifachen-produktionskapazit%C3%A4t-im-karbonfaserwerk-moses-lake&outputChannelId=7&id=T0179312DE&left_menu_item=node__4088. [Zugriff am 07 07 2014].
[9] CompositesWorld, „CompositesWorld Industry News,“ Gardner Business Media, Inc., 20 12 2010. [Online]. Available: http://www.compositesworld.com/news/aksa-adds-second-carbon-fiber-production-line. [Zugriff am 28 07 2015].
[10] BMW Group, „BMW Group PressClub Deutschland,“ 09 01 2015. [Online]. Available: https://www.press.bmwgroup.com/deutschland/pressDetail.html?title=bmw-group-verkauft-2014-mehr-als-zwei-mio-fahrzeuge&outputChannelId=7&id=T0199942DE&left_menu_item=node__804. [Zugriff am 13 08 2015].
[11] A. Tauber, „Die Welt,“ 02 06 2014. [Online]. Available: http://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article128632098/Der-erste-Blick-in-BMWs-neue-Superfabrik.html. [Zugriff am 06 09 2015].
[12] Mitsubishi Rayon Co., Ltd., „https://www.mrc.co.jp,“ 30 06 2014. [Online]. Available: https://www.mrc.co.jp/english/pressroom/detail/pdf/20140630192937.pdf. [Zugriff am 08 08 2014].
[13] Zoltek, „Zoltek Press Releases,“ 07 05 2015. [Online]. Available: http://zoltek.com/zoltek-de-mexico-to-expand/. [Zugriff am 06 09 2015].
[14] Ford Motor Company, „Ford - News,“ 17 04 2015. [Online]. Available: https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2015/04/17/ford--dowaksa-to-jointly-develop-carbon-fiber-for-high-volume-au.html. [Zugriff am 06 09 2015].
[15] Hexcel Corporation, „News Hexcel Corporation,“ 21 05 2015. [Online]. Available: http://www.hexcel.com/news/market-news/news-20150521. [Zugriff am 06 09 2015].
[16] M·A·I Carbon — Die Spitzencluster-Initiative 2015, „MAI Carbon - Ziele des Clusters,“ [Online]. Available: http://www.mai-carbon.de/index.php/de/mai-carbon/ziele. [Zugriff am 06 09 2015].
[17] D. E. Witten, „Composites Germany Composites-Markterhebung,“ Composites Germany, [Online]. Available: http://www.composites-germany.org/index.php/de/news/pressemitteilungen/239-ergebnis-der-aktuellen-composites-markterhebung-zum-ersten-halbjahr-2015-liegt-vor. [Zugriff am 06 09 2015].