The future of work?

Maarten van Riemsdijk

The way we are livingis changed fundamentally

By how we use and implementtechnical knowledge

LIVING

TECHNOLOGY

Outline for today

• The effect of rapid change

• Human Capital Theory

• Questions for Employers (HRM) and Employees

• What Saxion does

The effect of rapid change

What will future jobs look like?

Impossible to predict

Fundamental Truth?

We have in the west economies in which opportunity, dedication, commitment, insecurity, flexibility and uncertainty coexist

Some reasons why

• Change is the most constant factor for organisations– Technical development, at the moment especially cheap

computational power– Strategy, opportunities and threats ‘demand’ action– Intense (global) competition is the result and the cause

• Company staffing needs to be more adaptable– People are in many companies the largest fixed cost– Faster change (strategically, technologically) means higher

risk of obsolescence– Life long employment is no option because paying for

obsolescence or below par performance cannot be sustained

• We need companies that are– Competitive, innovative, game changers ……

and adaptable survivors when they are not.

• We therefore need employees who are– Dedicated, committed, seeing opportunities

and acting on them– Multi-employable and flexible and eager to

keep up with change– Adaptable to the uncertainty and insecurity of

work or ready ‘to move on’

Human Capital Theory

• Cit= (1- λ)C t-1 + μIt

– C = Human Capital– I = Individual– t = Time– λ = Depreciation– μ = Investmentquote– I = Investment

Ben Porath, 1965

Depreciation of HC (De Grip et al 2011)

• Technical– Peoples’ productivity depreciates because of

– General wear and tear (getting older)– Atrophy

» Lack of use» Work below your level

• Economical– The market value of your productivity

depreciates– The content of your knowledge becomes obsolete– The industry you work in goes down

Frey & Osborn (2013). The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation? Oxford

• Prediction: 60% of all current American jobs (n=902) are likely to be computerised

• Historical development went from replacement of complex jobs to replacement of simple jobs back to complex jobs again.

• The latter because of cheap computing power and the accumulation of large datasets, combined with unique characteristics of computers

Lab on a chip

eXtensible Business Reporting Language

IBM’s Watson computer

Coursera

Cit= (1- λ)C t-1 + μIt

• The issue is not that jobs will be lost• Neither is the issue ‘jobless growth’

• Jobs will change faster and become more complex – less routine

• Old jobs you trained for disappear and no one can train you for what comes next yet.• Eliminating routine frees up time to do more

important (productive) stuff, increasing workload and difficulty.

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HRM: THE MATRIX

Questions for employers (HRM) and employees alike

• What technological or business trends will be game changers?

• Do we systematically discuss individual development relative to these developments?

• Are we clear to our people about the false security of permanent contracts?

• Do we rethink the labour contract every 3-5 years?• Do we force people to keep up? (in stead of: what do we offer

people in terms of development opportunities?)

• Do our people have a head start on the labour market after working for us?

• Do we learn new skills and competencies that are in high demand?• Have we offered development and concern as a substitute for

‘labour security’?

What about Individual Employees?

• Concern about the future helps individuals look ahead and prepare for what might come next.

• Control enables individuals to become responsible for shaping themselves and their environments to meet what comes next by using self-discipline, effort, and persistence

• Curiosity prompts a person to think about self in various situations and roles.

• Confidence: exploring experiences and information-seeking activities produce aspirations and build confidence that the person can actualize choices to implement their life design.

Savicksas & Porfeli 2012

What we at Saxion do

• Fundamental:– Research on Modern Labour Relations (with Saxion HR, high tech

companies and SME’s)– Research on predictors of employability– Research on predictors of professional excellence (with Saxion Top

Talent)– Research on work preferences of young people (with large companies,

health care and local government)

• Applied:– The Employability Index (with Randstad)– ‘Minion Mundo’ the strategic HRM game– We plan to build an E-HRM application for SME’s

http://www.saxion.nl/strategisch-hrm

Living Technology

The future of work is not what happens to you, you happen to

be the future of work.

http://www.saxion.nl/strategisch-hrm