The Future of Retail - Deborah W.'s Presntation for the 13th Department Store Summit Apr. 17, 2015

1

韋葆蘭香港馮氏集團利豐研究中心執行董事及全球零售科技研究主管

Deborah Weinswig Executive Director – Head Global Retail & Technology

Fung Business Intelligence Centre

RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY TRENDS SHAPING GLOBAL CONSUMER MARKET

影响全球消费市场15大零售高科技趋势

零售业的未来

2

PRODUCTS & MARKETS 1. Everything is Smart

全面智能化

产品和市场

3

1. Everything is Smart in Consumer Market 消费市场全面智能化

•  Smart Clothing 智能服装

•  Smart Homes 智能家居

•  Smart Cars 智能汽车

4

5


•  Connected Kids 联网儿童

•  Connected Pets 联网宠物

•  Smart Senior Home Care 智能家居老人护理

•  Smart Beauty 智能美容

6


市场规模 Market Size

(亿美元,Billions USD)

复合年增长率 CAGR

智能家居老人护理 Senior Home Care 4000 6.3%

智能美容 Smart Beauty 2480 3.4%

智能汽车 Smart Cars 800 8.5%

联网儿童 Connected Kids 640 10%

智能家居 Smart Homes 580 18%

联网宠物 Connected Pets 60 10%

智能服装 Smart Clothing 28 100%+

7

人们的购物方式 THE WAY PEOPLE SHOP

2. Mobile Apps Bury The Browser In Shopping 移动应用购物远超浏览器购物

8

2. Mobile Apps Bury the Browser In Shopping 移动应用购物远超浏览器购物

The browser is dead … 浏览器时代已经殆尽…

88% 82%

12% 18%

Smartphone Tablet

Mobile App vs. Browser Split

App Browser

R.I.P. BROWSER

安息吧,浏览器

1999-‐2014

… long live app nation!

…移动应用万岁

智能手机平板电脑

应用浏览器

移动应用与浏览器使用比例

9


3. Click & Collect Blurring Lines Between Online And Offline Channels 网上点击购买/店内提货模式模糊了线上和线下销售渠道

10

•  What is Click & Collect 什么是点击提货

•  More than two-thirds of UK shoppers used Click & Collect services in 2014 2014年超过三分之二的英国消费者使用过点击提货服务

Walmart Drive-‐Through


11


•  Amazon launched its lockers in Sept. 2011 亚马逊在2011年9月份推出储物柜服务

•  Only 17% of US consumers used Click & Collect in 2013 2013年只有17%的美国消费者使用点击提货服务

•  Walmart started testing a drive-through grocery pick-up service in Oct. 2014 沃尔玛在2014年10月开始测试免下车食品杂货提货服务

Walmart Drive-‐Through

Walmart Drive-‐Through 沃尔玛免下车服务

12


4. Webrooming Beats Showrooming 网络展厅击败线下展厅的现象

13

4.Webrooming Beats Showrooming 网络展厅击败线下展厅的现象

线下展厅网络展厅

店内浏览

网上购买店内购买

网上浏览

14

4

8

8

10

12

13

16

17

22

25

28

9

18

20

18

29

25

30

26

34

35

40

消费电子

家用电器

衣服和鞋类

书籍，音乐，电影和视频游戏

食品杂货

家具和家居用品

自制/家居装饰

健康和美容

珠宝首饰/手表

体育设备/户外

玩具

2014 2013 来源：普华永道，美国零售调查，2015年2月


•  Webrooming, or researching online and then buying in a store, has become the norm and more common than showrooming 网络展厅(在线研究,店内购买)已经变得比线下展厅普遍

% of Shoppers Not Researching Online Before Buying

40

35

34

26

30

25

29

18

20

18

9

28

25

22

17

16

13

12

10

8

8

4

Toys

Sporting Goods

Jewelry/Watches

Health & Beauty

DIY/Home Improvement

Furniture/Home Goods

Grocery

Books, Music & Movies

Clothing and Footwear

Household Appliances

Consumer Electronics 2014 2013

Source: PwC US Retail Survey, February 2015

%的购物者在购物前没有进行在线研究

电子产品

15


Why Shoppers Webroom? 为什么购物者会通过网络展厅方式购物？

•  Don’t want to pay for shipping 不想支付运费 (47%)

•  Don’t want to wait for delivery不想等待送货(23%)

•  Like to touch and feel a product before they buy 他们购买之前, 喜欢手触商品 (46%)

•  Like to ask store to match better prices found online 喜欢要求店家匹配他们在网上发现的更优惠的价格 (36%)

•  Like the option to return to store if needed喜欢能去商店退货 (37%)

16


5. Subscription Models As Convenient Alternatives (网络)订期购买模式成为便捷的替代方案

17

5. Subscription Models as Convenient Alternatives (网络)订期购买模式成为便捷的替代方案

•  Consumers love the convenience and dependability of the services 消费者喜欢便捷和可信赖的服务

•  Retailers love subscription models as a source of recurring revenue 零售商希望将(网络)订购模式作为循环性的收入来源

18

选择一个计划低至23美元

选择男性、女性或中性

Pijon选择内容零售价为30-60美元

美味和健康的零食、健康和

美容用品、家庭必需品和有

趣的礼物

每月交付不同产品的盒子！看看大家在说什么！

5. Subscription Models as Convenient Alternatives (网络)订期购买模式成为便捷的替代方案

19

零售商业模式 Retail Business Models

6. Pure Plays Open Brick-and-mortar Stores 纯粹的线上品牌公司都开设了实体店

20

6. Ecommerce Pure Plays Open Brick-and-Mortar Stores 纯粹的线上品牌公司都开设了实体店

•  Excluding Amazon, most online pure-plays hit a $1 billion revenue ceiling 除亚马逊之外，大部分纯粹的线上品牌公司都一般在10亿美元时达到营收上限

•  Establishing a brick-and-mortar presence aids in brand building and growing consumer awareness 设立实体店有助于推广品牌和提高消费者认知

•  Easier to get VC funding with technology connection in the apparel/retail business model 在服装/零售商业模式中结合高技术更容易获得风险投资

•  More in 2015 2015年这一趋势会继续

21


7. Online Grocery Is A New Growth Area 线上食品百货是新的增长领域

22

7. Online Grocery Is A New Growth Area 线上食品百货是新的增长领域 •  Global Grocery Market: $4 Trillion 全球食品杂货市场:4万亿美元

•  U.S. Grocery Market: $600B 美国食品杂货市场:6000亿美元

•  Percent Online 在线销售比例: 1.2%

•  Approx. 12% of Internet users have bought grocery items online 大约12%的互联网用户曾经在线购买过食品杂货

•  主要品牌

–  Fresh Direct

–  Google Express

–  Instacart

23


8. Tap & Pay Mobile Is Poised For Dramatic Growth “点击支付”必将实现快速增长

24

8. Tap & Pay Mobile Is Poised for Dramatic Growth “点击支付”必将实现快速增长

$3,737

$6,815

$10,451

$16,240

$23,472

$34,160

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

CAGR = 50% 复合年增长率

US Contactless Mobile Payment Market($ Millions) 美国非接触式移动支付市场（百万美元）

% of All Mobile Payments 7% 10% 13% 16% 20% 24%

Source: Forrester Research, October 2014

在所有移动支付中所占的百分率

来源：弗雷斯特研究公司，2014年10月

25


9. Retailer Tech Spending On The Rise 零售商的技术支出在不断增加

26

9. Retailer Tech Spending On the Rise 零售商的技术支出在不断增加 •  Capex was approximately 3.6% of sales in 2013 资本支出大约占到2013年销售额的3.6%

•  We estimate that this increased to 4% in 2014 预计这一比例会在2014年增加到4%

•  Technology capex: 技术资本支出：

–  Walmart: 30% of capex in 2013; Spending $1.2-$1.5B on ecommerce in FY2016 (= 9-13% of total) 沃尔玛：2013年占到30%的资本支出；2016财年电子商务支出为12-15亿美元（占全部支出的9-13%）

–  Nordstrom: “Technology investments account for more than 30% of our plan, up from roughly 20% historically” 诺德斯特龙：“技术投资占到计划投资的30%以上，超过以往高的20%左右”

–  Home Depot: “Tilting investments towards interconnected retail and technology” 家得宝: “联网零售和技术方面的投资比例在不断增加”

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

JCPenney Nordstrom Target TJ Maxx Kohl's Macy's Walmart Home Depot

CVS Sears

Capex/Sales Average

Capex/Sales for Selected Retailers 所选零售商的资本支出/销售额

Average = 3.6% 平均值

资本支出/销售额

平均值

27


10. Social Media Becomes A New Platform For Marketing 社交媒体成为新的营销平台

28


•  Internet now ruled by pictures and videos 互联网上现在充斥着图片和视频

•  Consistent but slowing growth in social media usage expected worldwide over the next 5 years 未来五年社交网络使用量会出现持续但缓慢的增长

•  Most of the growth in Asia 大部分的增长来自亚洲

•  Growth in the number of users is decelerating 用户增长率趋缓

•  Many social media experiences now on a mobile phone 许多人通过智能手机访问社交网络

1.22

1.47

1.73 1.97

2.18 2.37

2.55

23.7%

20.4%

18.0%

13.4%

10.8% 8.9%

7.5%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Social Network Users Worldwide (Bil.) 全球社交网络用户

Social Network Users Change %

Source: eMarketer, April 2013 Note: Internet users using a social networking site at least once a month 来源：电子营销者，2014年4月

社交网络用户全球增长率

29


移动消息

估测计量

30


11. Beacons Augment Couponing And Loyalty Programs 信标有助于零售商发放优惠券和实施积分计划

31

11. Beacons Augment Couponing and Loyalty Programs 信标有助于零售商发放优惠券和实施积分计划

•  What is a beacon? 什么是信标？

•  The best solution for improving the in-store retail experience 信标是改善店内购物体验的佳解决方案

32

33

11. Beacons Augment Couponing and Loyalty Programs 信标有助于零售商发放优惠券和实施积分计划 •  2016 is expected to be the Year of The Beacon 预计2016年将成为信标年

•  US installed base expands rapidly, but consumer response is key to further penetration 美国信标安装量在快速增加,不过顾客反应是进一步渗透的关键

$4.1

$44.4

2015 2016

Beacon-Influenced In-Store Retail Sales ($ Billion)

信标影响的店内零售销售额 (10亿美元)

Source: Bi Intelligence, Feb. 9, 2015

34


12. Micro-locations Improve In-store Experience 微型定位提高店内体验

35

12. Micro-locations Improve In-store Experience 微型定位提高店内体验

They know where you are! 通过信标可以获知你的位置！

36

37


13. Gamification Stimulates New Customer Behaviors 游戏化刺激新的消费行为

38

13. Gamification Stimulates New Customer Behaviors 游戏化刺激新的消费行为

•  Gamification is the use of elements from computer and video games in real-world or other activities 游戏化是指在真实世界或其他活动中使用计算机和视频游戏元素

•  These elements stimulate our psychological needs for desire, incentive, challenge, achievement and rewards, feedback, and mastery 这些元素模拟我们的各种心理需求：渴望、刺激、挑战、成就感等等

39


14. Uberfication Enbodies The Sharing Economy Model Uber实现分享经济模式

40

14. Uberfication Enbodys The Sharing Economy Model Uber实现分享经济模式

•  Uber is the most visible player (and driver) of the “sharing economy” Uber是“分享经济” 著名的参与者和推动者)

•  Changing consumer mindsets will challenge retailers 改变消费者的思维观念会对零售商提出新挑战

•  Opportunities for retailers: How much is convenience worth? 零售商的机遇：便捷性到底有多少价值？

41


15. Cybersecurity Demands Smarter Investment 网络安全要求零售商更有策略的投资

42

15. Cybersecurity Demands Smarter Investment 网络安全要求零售商更有策略的投资

•  Retailers need to spend smarter, not necessarily more on cybersecurity 在网络安全方面，零售商需要作出更加明智的支出，但是支出量不一定会增加

•  Holistic, enterprise-wide cyber-risk detection and prevention are critical first steps 首先应当实施覆盖整个企业的整体性网络风险监测和预防措施

•  Human error has played a major role in the recent cyber-attacks 在近的网络攻击中，人为错误占主要因素

43

1. Everything is Smart

2. Mobile Apps Bury The Browser In Shopping

3. Click & Collect Blurring Lines Between Online And Offline Channels

4. Webrooming Beats Showrooming

5. Subscription Models As Convenient Alternatives

6. Pure Plays Open Brick-and-mortar Stores

7. Online Grocery Is A New Growth Area

8. Tap & Pay Mobile Is Poised For Dramatic Growth

9. Retailer Tech Spending On The Rise

10. Social Media Becomes A New Platform For Marketing

11. Beacons Augment Couponing And Loyalty Programs

12. Micro-locations Improve In-store Experience

13. Gamification Stimulates New Customer Behaviors

14. Uberfication Enbodies The Sharing Economy Model

15. Cybersecurity Demands Smarter Investment

RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY TRENDS 15大零售高科技趋势

44

RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY TRENDS 15大零售高科技趋势

1.全面智能化

2.移动应用购物远超浏览器购物

3.网上点击购买/店内提货模式模糊了线上和线下销售渠道

4.网络展厅击败线下展厅的现象

5.(网络)订期购买模式成为便捷的替代方案

6.纯粹的线上品牌公司都开设了实体店

7.线上食品百货是新的增长领域

8.“点击支付”必将实现快速增长

9.零售商的技术支出在不断增加

10.社交媒体成为新的营销平台

11.信标有助于零售商发放优惠券和实施积分计划

12.微型定位提高店内体验

13.游戏化刺激新的消费行为

14.Uber实现分享经济模式

15.网络安全要求零售商更有策略的投资

45

韋葆蘭香港馮氏集團利豐研究中心執行董事及全球零售科技研究主管

Deborah Weinswig Executive Director – Head Global Retail & Technology

Fung Business Intelligence Centre

謝謝

THANK YOU

Documents

The Future of Retail - Deborah W.'s Presntation for the 13th Department Store Summit Apr. 17, 2015