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The Energy-System GMM Model for Integrated Assessment

Leonardo Barreto, Socrates Kypreos

Energy Economics Group. Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI)

ETSAP Meeting, Florence, November 24-25, 2004

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Outline

•The Energy-System GMM model

•Technology clusters in GMM

•The passenger car sector

•The GMM baseline scenario

•Linking GMM to the MAGICC climate model

•Concluding remarks

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The Energy-System GMM Model

• GMM (Global Multi-regional MARKAL Model) developed at PSI

• “Bottom-up” energy-system model with detailed supply technologies and stylized end-use sectors

• Global, 5-region model, time horizon 2000-2050

• Calibrated to year-2000 statistics

• Clusters approach to technology learning

• Transport sector emphasizing passenger cars

• Marginal abatement curves for CH4 and N2O

• CO2 capture and storage in electricity and hydrogen production

• Other synfuel production technologies (H2, alcohols, F-T liquids)

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Technology Clusters in GMM

• Clusters are groups of technologies that co-evolve and cross-enhance each other, among others by sharing common key components (learning spillovers)

• In GMM, 15 key learning components in electricity generation, fuel production, CO2 capture and passenger car technologies are included following Seebregts et al.(2000) and Turton and Barreto (2004)

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15 Key Learning Components

• Electricity generation technologies: Wind turbines, Solar PV, advanced nuclear, gas turbine, stationary fuel cell (5)

• Synthetic fuel production: Gasifier, biomass-to-ethanol, steam methane reformer (3)

• CO2 Capture: Conventional coal power plants (post-combustion, natural gas CC (post-combustion), coal and biomass IGCC (pre-combustion), coal and biomass hydrogen production (pre-combustion) (4)

• Passenger cars: Mobile fuel cell, battery, mobile reformer (3)

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Example of Technology Cluster

Gasifier (GSF)

Coal-Based IGCC Power Plant

Coal-Based Hydrogen Production

Coal-Based Fischer-Tropsch

Synthesis

Biomass-Based Hydrogen Production

Biomass-Based Fischer-Tropsch

SynthesisBiomass-Based

IGCC Power Plant

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The Transportation Sector in GMM

•Passenger car sub-sector with technological detail in automobile technologies (ICEV, HEV, FCV)

•Aggregate air transport sub-sector at the final-energy level with only oil-based technologies

•Aggregate “other transport” sub-sector with generic technologies mimicking final-energy consumption

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Passenger Car Demand in GMM

0

4000

8000

12000

16000

20000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Ca

r T

rav

el (

bill

ion

ve

hic

le-k

m)

LAFM

ASIA

EEFSU

OOECD

NAM

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The GMM Baseline Scenario

•GDP, population, end-use demands (except for cars) and resource assumptions from SRES B2 scenario quantification with the MESSAGE model (Riahi and Roehrl, 2000; Rogner, 1997,2000) but a more fossil-intensive technology dynamics

•Primary energy consumption reaches 960 EJ and energy-related CO2 emissions reach 15 Gt C in the year 2050.

• World demand for passenger cars (vehicle-km) doubles by 2050

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World Primary Energy

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Wo

rld

Pri

ma

ry E

ne

rgy

(P

J)

Renewables

Nuclear

Biomass

Gas

Oil

Coal

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World Electricity Generation

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Wo

rld

Ele

ctr

icit

y G

en

era

tio

n (

PJ

)

Geothermal

Wind

Solar

Biomass

Hydro

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

Coal

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Global GHG Emissions (CO2 ,CH4, N2O)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

C-e

q e

mis

sio

ns

(M

t C

-eq

, CO

2+C

H4+

N2O

)

N2O

CH4

CO2

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Passenger Cars: Technology Mix

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Glo

ba

l Pa

ss

en

ge

r C

ars

Us

e (

Bill

ion

v-k

m)

Hydrogen FCV

Methanol FCV

Oil Products FCV

Hydrogen HEV

CNG HEV

Oil Products HEV

CNG ICEV

Oil Products Advanced ICEV

Oil Products ICEV

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Key Components: Cumulative Capacity

1

10

100

1000

10000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Cu

mu

lati

ve

Ca

pa

cit

y (

GW

)

Gasifier

Stationary Fuel Cell

Mobile Fuel Cell

Gas Turbine

Solar PV

Wind Turbine

New Nuclear

Battery

Stationary Reformer

Mobile Reformer

Biomass-to Ethanol

CO2 Capture coal

CO2 Capture gas

CO2 Capture IGCC

CO2 capture Hydrogen

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Linking GMM to a Climate Model

•The energy-system GMM model has been linked to the simplified climate MAGICC model version 4.1 (Wigley, 2003)

•Energy-related CO2, CH4 and N2O emissions are computed

by GMM. Non-energy-related emissions for these GHGs are extrapolated from U.S EPA (2003)

•Emissions for other GHGs are taken from the SRES-B2 scenario (SRES, 2000)

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GHG Atmospheric Concentrations

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

CO

2 A

tmo

sp

he

ric

Co

nc

en

tra

tio

n (

pp

mv

)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

CH

4,N

2O A

tmo

sp

he

ric

Co

nc

en

tra

tio

n (

pp

bv

)

N2O

CO2

CH4

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Temperature Change and Sea-level Rise

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Glo

ba

l Te

mp

era

ture

Ch

an

ge

fro

m 1

99

0 (

oC

)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Glo

ba

l Se

a-l

ev

el R

ise

fro

m 1

99

0 (

cm

)

Temperature Change Sea-level Rise

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Concluding Remarks

• The energy-system GMM (Global, Multi-regional MARKAL) model has been extended as follows:

• Clusters approach to technology learning

• Passenger car sector

• Hydrogen and Fischer-Tropsch production technologies and CO2 capture technologies

• Marginal abatement curves for CH4 and N2O

• Link to the climate model MAGICC

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Acknowledgements

•The contributions of Hal Turton, from the Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies (ECS) Program at IIASA, and Peter Rafaj, from the Energy Economics Group (EEG) at PSI, to these developments are highly appreciated. Several of the extensions in the GMM model are based on previous developments with the ERIS model at IIASA-ECS

•The support from the Swiss National Center of Competence in Research on Climate (NCCR-Climate) funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation is gratefully acknowledged

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Support Slides

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The Energy-System GMM Model

• Clusters approach to technology learning

• Transport sector emphasizing passenger cars

• Energy-carrier production technologies (H2, alcohols, F-T liquids, oil products, CNG, etc)

• Marginal abatement curves for CH4 and N2O

• CO2 capture and storage (CCS) in electricity and synthetic fuel production

• Link to the climate MAGICC model

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Reference Energy System in GMMOil

Natural Gas

Biomass

Other Renewables

Uranium

Coal

Refinery

Alcohol Production

Power Plants

Hydrogen Production

Heat Plants

CO2 Capture

CO2 Capture

Fischer-TropschSynthesis

T&DCompressed

Nat. Gas

Coal

Nat. Gas

Biomass

Res/CommThermal

Res/CommSpecific

IndustrialThermal

IndustrialSpecific

Cars

Air Transport

Aggregate other

Transport

Non-commercial Biomass

BiomassNat. Gas

BiomassCoal

T&D

T&D

T&D

T&D

T&D

T&D

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Passenger Car Demand

• Based on estimates of vehicle-km per region for the year-2000 from Turton and Barreto (2004) and growth rates from WBCSD (2004) up to 2050

• Doubling of global vehicle-km traveled over the time horizon 2000-2050

• Faster growth in developing regions but a “car mobility divide” still persists towards the middle of the 21st century

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Car Technologies in GMMTechnology Fuel Efficiency

(v-km/MJ)Initial Investment Cost

(US$2000 per car)Starting

Date

Internal Combustion Engine (ICEV)

Oil products standard ICEV 0.21-0.354 12425 2000

Oil products advanced ICEV 0.599 12825 2010

CNG standard ICEV 0.19-0.32 12625 2000

Hybrid-electric Vehicles (HEV)

Oil products HEV 0.761 14338 2010

CNG HEV 0.658 14498 2010

Hydrogen HEV 0.814 15598 2020

Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCV)

Oil products FCV 0.656 35736 2020

Methanol FCV 0.735 31107 2020

Hydrogen FCV 1.060 25371 2020

Source: Adapted from Ogden, J.M., Williams, R.H., Larson, E.D., 2004: Societal Lifecycle Costs of Cars with Alternative Fuels/Engines, Energy Policy 32, 7-27.

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Marginal Abatement Curves (MAC)

• Implementation of MACs for methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) following approach of MERGE (Manne and Richels, 2003) and ERIS (Turton and Barreto, 2004)

• Three categories: exogenous baseline, endogenous baseline, non-abatable emissions

• Data from the U.S EPA (2003) study, potentials are relative to baseline emissions

• Technical-progress multipliers to extrapolate abatement potentials beyond 2020

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Technical Multipliers for Non-CO2 Abatement Potentials

0

50

100

150

200

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Percentage of Baseline Emissions (%)

Ab

ate

me

nt

Co

st

(US

$/t

on

C-e

q) Technical Multiplier

2020 2050

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Hydrogen Production and CCS

• Hydrogen production from coal gasification, biomass, gasification, steam reforming of natural gas, electrolysis, nuclear high-temperature reactors

• CO2 capture technologies for hydrogen production from

coal, gas and biomass and electricity production from

conventional coal, biomass and coal-based IGCC, NGCC

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CO2 Emissions

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

En

erg

y-r

ela

ted

CO

2 E

mis

sio

ns

(M

t C

)

LAFM

ASIA

EEFSU

OOECD

NAM