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1/19
The Energy-System GMM Model for Integrated Assessment
Leonardo Barreto, Socrates Kypreos
Energy Economics Group. Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI)
ETSAP Meeting, Florence, November 24-25, 2004
2/19
Outline
•The Energy-System GMM model
•Technology clusters in GMM
•The passenger car sector
•The GMM baseline scenario
•Linking GMM to the MAGICC climate model
•Concluding remarks
3/19
The Energy-System GMM Model• GMM (Global Multi-regional MARKAL Model) developed at PSI • “Bottom-up” energy-system model with detailed supply technologies and stylized end-use sectors • Global, 5-region model, time horizon 2000-2050• Calibrated to year-2000 statistics• Clusters approach to technology learning• Transport sector emphasizing passenger cars• Marginal abatement curves for CH4 and N2O• CO2 capture and storage in electricity and hydrogen production• Other synfuel production technologies (H2, alcohols, F-T liquids)
4/19
Technology Clusters in GMM
• Clusters are groups of technologies that co-evolve and cross-enhance each other, among others by sharing common key components (learning spillovers)
• In GMM, 15 key learning components in electricity generation, fuel production, CO2 capture and passenger car technologies are included following Seebregts et al.(2000) and Turton and Barreto (2004)
5/19
15 Key Learning Components• Electricity generation technologies: Wind turbines,
Solar PV, advanced nuclear, gas turbine, stationary fuel cell (5)
• Synthetic fuel production: Gasifier, biomass-to-ethanol, steam methane reformer (3)
• CO2 Capture: Conventional coal power plants (post-combustion, natural gas CC (post-combustion), coal and biomass IGCC (pre-combustion), coal and biomass hydrogen production (pre-combustion) (4)
• Passenger cars: Mobile fuel cell, battery, mobile reformer (3)
6/19
Example of Technology Cluster
Gasifier(GSF)
Coal-Based IGCC Power Plant
Coal-Based Hydrogen Production
Coal-Based Fischer-Tropsch
Synthesis
Biomass-Based Hydrogen Production
Biomass-Based Fischer-Tropsch
SynthesisBiomass-Based
IGCC Power Plant
7/19
The Transportation Sector in GMM
•Passenger car sub-sector with technological detail in automobile technologies (ICEV, HEV, FCV)
•Aggregate air transport sub-sector at the final-energy level with only oil-based technologies
•Aggregate “other transport” sub-sector with generic technologies mimicking final-energy consumption
8/19
Passenger Car Demand in GMM
0
4000
8000
12000
16000
20000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Car
Tra
vel (
billi
on v
ehic
le-k
m)
LAFMASIAEEFSUOOECDNAM
9/19
The GMM Baseline Scenario
•GDP, population, end-use demands (except for cars) and resource assumptions from SRES B2 scenario quantification with the MESSAGE model (Riahi and Roehrl, 2000; Rogner, 1997,2000) but a more fossil-intensive technology dynamics
•Primary energy consumption reaches 960 EJ and energy-related CO2 emissions reach 15 Gt C in the year 2050.
• World demand for passenger cars (vehicle-km) doubles by 2050
10/19
World Primary Energy
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Wor
ld P
rimar
y En
ergy
(PJ)
RenewablesNuclearBiomassGasOilCoal
11/19
World Electricity Generation
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Wor
ld E
lect
ricity
Gen
erat
ion
(PJ)
GeothermalWindSolarBiomassHydroNuclearGasOilCoal
12/19
Global GHG Emissions (CO2 ,CH4, N2O)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
C-e
q em
issi
ons
(Mt C
-eq,
CO
2+C
H 4+N
2O)
N2OCH4CO2
13/19
Passenger Cars: Technology Mix
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Glo
bal P
asse
nger
Car
s U
se (B
illio
n v-
km)
Hydrogen FCVMethanol FCVOil Products FCVHydrogen HEVCNG HEVOil Products HEVCNG ICEVOil Products Advanced ICEVOil Products ICEV
14/19
Key Components: Cumulative Capacity
1
10
100
1000
10000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Cum
ulat
ive
Cap
acity
(GW
)
GasifierStationary Fuel CellMobile Fuel CellGas TurbineSolar PVWind TurbineNew NuclearBatteryStationary ReformerMobile ReformerBiomass-to EthanolCO2 Capture coalCO2 Capture gasCO2 Capture IGCCCO2 capture Hydrogen
15/19
Linking GMM to a Climate Model
•The energy-system GMM model has been linked to the simplified climate MAGICC model version 4.1 (Wigley, 2003)
•Energy-related CO2, CH4 and N2O emissions are computed by GMM. Non-energy-related emissions for these GHGs are extrapolated from U.S EPA (2003)
•Emissions for other GHGs are taken from the SRES-B2 scenario (SRES, 2000)
16/19
GHG Atmospheric Concentrations
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
CO
2 Atm
osph
eric
Con
cent
ratio
n (p
pmv)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
CH
4,N2O
Atm
osph
eric
Con
cent
ratio
n (p
pbv)
N2O
CO2
CH4
17/19
Temperature Change and Sea-level Rise
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Glo
bal T
empe
ratu
re C
hang
e fro
m 1
990
(o C)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Glo
bal S
ea-le
vel R
ise
from
199
0 (c
m)
Temperature Change Sea-level Rise
18/19
Concluding Remarks
• The energy-system GMM (Global, Multi-regional MARKAL) model has been extended as follows:• Clusters approach to technology learning • Passenger car sector • Hydrogen and Fischer-Tropsch production
technologies and CO2 capture technologies• Marginal abatement curves for CH4 and N2O• Link to the climate model MAGICC
19/19
Acknowledgements
•The contributions of Hal Turton, from the Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies (ECS) Program at IIASA, and Peter Rafaj, from the Energy Economics Group (EEG) at PSI, to these developments are highly appreciated. Several of the extensions in the GMM model are based on previous developments with the ERIS model at IIASA-ECS
•The support from the Swiss National Center of Competence in Research on Climate (NCCR-Climate) funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation is gratefully acknowledged
20/19
Support Slides
21/19
The Energy-System GMM Model
• Clusters approach to technology learning• Transport sector emphasizing passenger cars• Energy-carrier production technologies (H2, alcohols, F-
T liquids, oil products, CNG, etc)• Marginal abatement curves for CH4 and N2O• CO2 capture and storage (CCS) in electricity and
synthetic fuel production• Link to the climate MAGICC model
22/19
Reference Energy System in GMMOil
Natural Gas
Biomass
Other Renewables
Uranium
Coal
Refinery
Alcohol Production
Power Plants
Hydrogen Production
Heat Plants
CO2 Capture
CO2 Capture
Fischer-TropschSynthesis
T&DCompressed
Nat. Gas
CoalNat. GasBiomass
Res/CommThermal
Res/CommSpecific
IndustrialThermal
IndustrialSpecific
Cars
Air Transport
Aggregate other
Transport
Non-commercial Biomass
BiomassNat. Gas
BiomassCoal
T&D
T&D
T&D
T&D
T&D
T&D
23/19
Passenger Car Demand
• Based on estimates of vehicle-km per region for the year-2000 from Turton and Barreto (2004) and growth rates from WBCSD (2004) up to 2050
• Doubling of global vehicle-km traveled over the time horizon 2000-2050
• Faster growth in developing regions but a “car mobility divide” still persists towards the middle of the 21st century
24/19
Car Technologies in GMM
2020253711.060Hydrogen FCV
2020311070.735Methanol FCV
2020357360.656Oil products FCV
Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCV)
2020155980.814Hydrogen HEV
2010144980.658CNG HEV
2010143380.761Oil products HEV
Hybrid-electric Vehicles (HEV)
2000126250.19-0.32 CNG standard ICEV
2010128250.599Oil products advanced ICEV
2000124250.21-0.354Oil products standard ICEV
Internal Combustion Engine (ICEV)
Starting Date
Initial Investment Cost (US$2000 per car)
Fuel Efficiency (v-km/MJ)
Technology
Source: Adapted from Ogden, J.M., Williams, R.H., Larson, E.D., 2004: Societal Lifecycle Costs of Cars with Alternative Fuels/Engines, Energy Policy 32, 7-27.
25/19
Marginal Abatement Curves (MAC)
• Implementation of MACs for methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) following approach of MERGE (Manne and Richels, 2003) and ERIS (Turton and Barreto, 2004)
• Three categories: exogenous baseline, endogenous baseline, non-abatable emissions
• Data from the U.S EPA (2003) study, potentials are relative to baseline emissions
• Technical-progress multipliers to extrapolate abatement potentials beyond 2020
26/19
Technical Multipliers for Non-CO2 Abatement Potentials
0
50
100
150
200
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Percentage of Baseline Emissions (%)
Aba
tem
ent C
ost (
US$
/ton
C-e
q)
Technical Multiplier2020 2050
27/19
Hydrogen Production and CCS• Hydrogen production from coal gasification, biomass,
gasification, steam reforming of natural gas, electrolysis, nuclear high-temperature reactors
• CO2 capture technologies for hydrogen production from coal, gas and biomass and electricity production from conventional coal, biomass and coal-based IGCC, NGCC
28/19
CO2 Emissions
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ener
gy-r
elat
ed C
O 2 E
mis
sion
s (M
t C)
LAFMASIAEEFSUOOECDNAM