The Energy Sustainability Dilemma: Powering the Cornell Ithaca May 2... 1 The Energy Sustainability

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    The Energy Sustainability Dilemma:

    Powering the Future in a Finite World

    Cornell University

    Ithaca, New York

    May 2, 2012

    J. David Hughes

    Global Sustainability Research Inc.

    Geological Survey of Canada - retired

    - The “ENERGY SUSTAINABILITY DILEMMA” defined:

    Points to be covered:

    - Availability and deliverability of the nonrenewable fuels (OIL,

    GAS, COAL, URANIUM) that are the energy-dense

    elixers of our modern society

    - ELECTRICITY – some issues in keeping the lights on

    - Implications of POPULATION GROWTH and ASPIRATIONS

    of future energy consumption

    - Forecasts - where are we going and how likely is it that

    we’ll get there

    - History - where have we been

    - Going forward in an Energy Constrained World

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    3500 BC

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    200 Million

    1810

    1 Billion

    1925

    2 Billion

    1957

    3 Billion

    1975

    4 Billion

    1987

    5 Billion

    2011 7 Billion

    The Phenomenal Reproductive Success of the Human Race

    10000 BC – 2011 AD

    (data as cited from U.S. Bureau of Census from various authors ) © Hughes GSR Inc, 2011

    (data from Arnulf Grubler, 1998;

    BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2010; U.S. Bureau of Census, 2010)

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    M il

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    p le

    Year

    OIL

    GAS

    COAL

    Population

    Energy Consumption

    Population versus Energy Consumption, 1500-2010

    COAL OIL

    GAS

    © Hughes GSR Inc, 2011

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    Asia Pacific Africa Middle East Former Soviet Union Europe S. & Cent. America North America

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    Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil

    World Primary Energy Consumption: 1965-2010

    By Region By Fuel

    163%

    381%

    149% 753%

    53%

    414% 72%

    87%

    (data from BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2011)

    218% increase in World

    Consumption 1965-2010;

    2010 increase = 5.6%

    Highest growth in 2010 = Asia Pacific 8.5%; Coal 7.6%

    Coal

    Gas

    Oil

    © Hughes GSR Inc, 2011

    F o

    ssil F u

    els 8 4 %

    renewables

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    1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

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    Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Hydro Wood

    T o

    n n

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    q u

    iv a

    le n

    t P

    er P

    er so

    n

    (data from Arnulf Grubler, 1998;

    BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2011; U.S. Bureau of Census, 2011) © Hughes GSR Inc, 2011

    World Per Capita Annual Primary Energy

    Consumption by Fuel 1850-2010

    OIL

    HYDRO

    COAL

    WOOD

    GAS

    8 9

    % N

    o n

    -R en

    ew a

    b le

    +794%

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    % o

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    0 P

    o p

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    World Population, Per Capita and Total Energy

    Consumption, 1850-2010, as a Percentage of 2010 Levels

    Population

    (data from Arnulf Grubler, 1998;

    BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2011; U.S. Bureau of Census, 2011) © Hughes GSR Inc, 2011

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    er C

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    p ti

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    Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Hydro Wood

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    1850 1890 1930 1970 2010

    % o

    f 2

    0 1

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    o ta

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    o n

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    Year

    Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Hydro Wood

    Per Capita Consumption Total Consumption

    5.5 times 8.9 times 49 times

    8 9

    % N

    o n

    -R en

    ew a b

    le

    WOOD HYDRO

    COAL

    OIL

    GAS

    COAL

    OIL

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    1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

    Year

    Gas

    Oil

    Coal

    C u

    m u

    la ti

    v e

    % C

    o n

    su m

    e d

    s in

    ce 1

    8 5 0

    (data from Arnulf Grubler, 1998; BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2011) © Hughes GSR Inc, 2011

    Cumulative Consumption of Fossil Fuels Since 1850

    through Yearend 2010

    OIL

    COAL

    90% of Fossil Fuels have been

    consumed

    Since 1937

    50% of Fossil Fuels have been

    consumed

    Since 1985

    3 0

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    2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

    Q u

    a d

    ri ll

    io n

    B T

    U

    Year

    By Economic Development

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    2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

    Q u

    a d

    ri ll

    io n

    B T

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    Year

    By Fuel

    F o

    ssil F u

    els 7 9

    %

    Gas +48%

    (data from Energy Information Administration International Energy Outlook, 2011)

    Non-OECD Countries +73% (82% of 2009 World Population)

    OECD Countries +17% (18% of 2010 World

    Population)

    Forecast Growth In World Energy Consumption, 2010-2035

    (EIA, 2011, Reference Economic Case)

    47% increase in World

    Consumption (1.6%/year)

    Oil +27%

    Coal +45%

    37%

    47%

    © Hughes GSR Inc, 2011

    84%

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    1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030

    Year

    Gas

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    Coal

    C u

    m u

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    % C

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    e d

    s in

    ce 1

    8 5 0

    (data from Arnulf Grubler, 1998;

    BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2011; EIA IEO 2011 Reference case projection) © Hughes GSR Inc, 2011

    Projected Consumption of Fossil Fuels Through 2035 as a

    Percentage of Yearend 2010 Cumulative Consumption

    OIL

    COAL

    CONSUMED

    to Date

    3008 Billion

    Barrels Oil

    Equivalent

    NEEDED

    75% more or an

    Additional 2269

    Billion Barrels Oil

    Equivalent to Cover

    Next 25 years

    5 2

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  • 6

    ULTIMATE BARRIER

    ENERGY IN

    EQUALS

    ENERGY OUT

    Conventional

    Unconventional

    Price/Technological

    Limit to access

    Coalbed Methane Shale Oil

    Tight Gas

    ???Gas Hydrates???

    In Situ Resources

    >90% of World’s

    Production

    Decreasing

    Concentration

    Increasing

    Effort (Energy IN

    Vs

    Energy OUT)

    Tar Sands

    Extra-Heavy Oil

    In Situ Oil and Gas Resources versus Supply

    In Situ Coal Gasification

    Coal Liquefaction

    Shale Gas

    Gas to