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Waterloo Institute for Complexity and Innovation February 2012

The End of Economic Growth

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Lecture with Stephen Purdey, University of Toronto

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Page 1: The End of Economic Growth

Waterloo Institute for Complexity and Innovation

February 2012

Page 2: The End of Economic Growth

What is Global Governance?

No world government = no global governance

But, if governance = provision of public order

Then, other sources of governance:

international organizations, agencies, regimes, alliances, forums, networks, public-private partnerships, etc ...

Page 3: The End of Economic Growth

What is Global Governance?

All forms of Global Governance are:

Partial and dissimilar

Surrogates for the absent world government

Attempts to fill the global governance deficit

Global Governance = A patchwork quilt of governance structures and systems

Page 4: The End of Economic Growth

Two Functions of Global Governance

1. Provision of Public Order

Page 5: The End of Economic Growth

Two Functions of Global Governance

1. Provision of Public Order

Page 6: The End of Economic Growth

Two Functions of Global Governance

1. Provision of Public Order

2. Steering Function

Page 7: The End of Economic Growth

Two Functions of Global Governance

1. Provision of Public Order

2. Steering Function

Page 8: The End of Economic Growth

Where are we going?

Our only clues:

The universalized political commitment to economic growth

More is better

Destination: The Land of Plenty

Page 9: The End of Economic Growth

Where are we going?

No roadmap

No realistic destination

No one at the wheel

Missing steering function = global governance deficit

Finding the answer in the noumenal domain

Page 10: The End of Economic Growth

What is a Complex Adaptive System?

Dominant worldview: Newtonian mechanics

But Newton’s laws tell us nothing about:

Forests

The world economy

Stock markets

The internet

Earth’s climate

Page 11: The End of Economic Growth

Characteristics of Complex Adaptive Systems

Huge number of interactive parts

Constant energy input

Evolution

Threshold effects

Emergence

Page 12: The End of Economic Growth

What is emergence?

The whole is more than the sum of its parts

Example: Human consciousness

Supervenience and evolution

Page 13: The End of Economic Growth

Emergence and Global Governance

Human society on Earth is a Complex Adaptive System

Complex Adaptive Systems can spawn emergent phenomena

Do we have a collective consciousness, a ‘shared mind’?

Page 14: The End of Economic Growth

Does a shared consciousness exist?

A clue: Waves of shared emotion

Evidence from sociology

Culture supervenes on individual behaviour

Page 15: The End of Economic Growth

Stages of Evolution

1. Early childhood: Local awareness

2. Adolescence: excitement, gullibility, vulnerability

3. Adulthood: empathic care and responsibility

Page 16: The End of Economic Growth

Where we are now: Adolescence

The panacea of economic growth

The illogic of perpetual growth

Simple, exciting ideas dominate our evolution, but we lack a reflexive capability

Page 17: The End of Economic Growth

Two Questions

1. How can we influence the evolution of our shared ideational space?

2. Where do we want to go?

Answering these questions is the first step toward a new form of global governance

Page 18: The End of Economic Growth

How can we influence the evolution of our shared ideational space?

1. Bottom-up:

Open-architecture politics and social media (participatory democracy)

Examples: Occupy Movement, Arab Spring, Russian uprising against Putin, #tellviceverything campaign

Mobilize constituencies (youth, boomers)

Page 19: The End of Economic Growth

How can we influence the evolution of our shared ideational space?

2. Top-down

A New Reformation

A frontal attack on the “church of everlasting growth”

Shift from defence to offence

Shift the burden of proof

Stake a dogmatic claim to our own future

Page 20: The End of Economic Growth

Where are we going?

An ecologically safe and just human society

Transition from adolescence to maturity

Transition from bigger to better

A stable platform

Page 21: The End of Economic Growth

Four Transitions Cognitive: From Newton to CAS

Page 22: The End of Economic Growth

Four Transitions Cognitive: From Newton to CAS

Political: From muddling through to open-architecture democracy and noumenal supervenience

Page 23: The End of Economic Growth

Four Transitions Cognitive: From Newton to CAS

Political: From muddling through to open-architecture democracy and noumenal supervenience

Normative: From utilitarianism and moral relativism to a deeper understanding of the ‘meaning of life’

Page 24: The End of Economic Growth

Four Transitions Cognitive: From Newton to CAS

Political: From muddling through to open-architecture democracy and noumenal supervenience

Normative: From utilitarianism and moral relativism to a deeper understanding of the ‘meaning of life’

Economic: From the growth model to the SSE model