The Effects of The Effects of Geomagnetic Storms on Geomagnetic Storms on

Power SystemsPower Systems

Mary HolleboomMary Holleboom

Justin VoogtJustin Voogt

ENGR W82ENGR W82

January 22, 2002January 22, 2002

OutlineOutline

1.1. Space weather backgroundSpace weather background

2.2. Effects on power systemsEffects on power systems

3.3. Case studiesCase studies

4.4. PredictionPrediction

5.5. Impact reductionImpact reduction

6.6. ConclusionsConclusions

DefinitionsDefinitions Space WeatherSpace Weather

– Geomagnetic storms, substorms, and auroras Geomagnetic storms, substorms, and auroras produced by ionized particles captured in the earth’s produced by ionized particles captured in the earth’s magnetic fieldmagnetic field

Solar WindSolar Wind– Motion of interplanetary ionized particles away from Motion of interplanetary ionized particles away from

the sun and towards the earththe sun and towards the earth

MagnetosphereMagnetosphere– Magnetic field produced by the earth that extends Magnetic field produced by the earth that extends

into spaceinto space

Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GIC)Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GIC)– Currents produced by sudden fluctuations in the Currents produced by sudden fluctuations in the

earth’s magnetic field during a geomagnetic stormearth’s magnetic field during a geomagnetic storm

BackgroundBackground

What is a Geomagnetic What is a Geomagnetic Storm?Storm?

Sudden production of Sudden production of intense GICsintense GICs

Ability to create instability Ability to create instability in earth’s magnetic fieldin earth’s magnetic field

11-year cycles11-year cycles VariationsVariations

– Duration (10s – several Duration (10s – several days)days)

– Daytime v. NighttimeDaytime v. Nighttime– SizeSize– FrequencyFrequency

BackgroundBackground

Coronal Mass Ejection Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)(CME)

Mass up to one Mass up to one billion metric tonsbillion metric tons

Temperature greater Temperature greater than one million Kthan one million K

Millions of km wideMillions of km wide Cause storms on Cause storms on

earth several days earth several days after leaving the sunafter leaving the sun

BackgroundBackground

Impact on Power SystemsImpact on Power Systems Disrupts power gridsDisrupts power grids GICs enter through GICs enter through

thousands of grounding thousands of grounding pointspoints

Transformer saturationTransformer saturation BlackoutsBlackouts Satellite malfunctionSatellite malfunction Radio transmission Radio transmission

disruptiondisruption High altitude aircraft High altitude aircraft

damagedamage Costs of transformers and Costs of transformers and

additional power purchaseadditional power purchase

EffectsEffects

Transformer Saturation / Transformer Saturation / BlackoutsBlackouts

GICs resemble slowly GICs resemble slowly varying DC currentsvarying DC currents

Saturation of Saturation of transformer coretransformer core

Harmonic levels Harmonic levels increasedincreased

Over 100A measured Over 100A measured in grounding in grounding connections of connections of affected areasaffected areas

Voltage regulation Voltage regulation capabilities capabilities overwhelmedoverwhelmed

Multiple power systems Multiple power systems affected simultaneouslyaffected simultaneously

Permanent damage to Permanent damage to network equipmentnetwork equipment

Up to 600% of normal Up to 600% of normal load drawn upon power load drawn upon power restorationrestoration

EffectsEffects

NOAA Weather ScalesNOAA Weather Scales

National Oceanic National Oceanic and Atmospheric and Atmospheric AdministrationAdministration

G scale of 1-5G scale of 1-5 Kp values 5-9Kp values 5-9 Frequency based Frequency based

on 11-year cycleson 11-year cycles

Physical Avg. FrequencyMeaure (1 cycle = 11 yrs)

Scale Descriptor Kp value Storm events/cycle(Days/cycle)

G5 Extreme 9 4 (4)G4 Severe 8 100 (60)G3 Strong 7 200 (130)G2 Moderate 6 600 (360)G1 Minor 5 1700 (900)

Category

EffectsEffects

March 13, 1989March 13, 1989 Entire Hydro Quebec power system Entire Hydro Quebec power system

collapsed due to G5 geomagnetic collapsed due to G5 geomagnetic stormstorm

6 million customers lost power6 million customers lost power Entire system collapsed in 90 Entire system collapsed in 90

secondsseconds Restoration took 9 hoursRestoration took 9 hours Total cost to Quebec: $13.2 millionTotal cost to Quebec: $13.2 million

Case StudiesCase Studies

March 13, 1989, cont.March 13, 1989, cont. Utilities throughout Utilities throughout

North America felt North America felt stormstorm

Several transformer Several transformer heating problemsheating problems

1,200 MVA 1,200 MVA transformer in New transformer in New Jersey destroyedJersey destroyed

Case StudiesCase Studies

July 15, 2000July 15, 2000 G5 Class geomagnetic stormG5 Class geomagnetic storm Kp of 9 for over nine hoursKp of 9 for over nine hours No significant power system No significant power system

damagedamage

Case StudiesCase Studies

Satellite ForecastingSatellite Forecasting 1998: Advanced Composition 1998: Advanced Composition

Explorer (ACE) launchedExplorer (ACE) launched Real-time solar wind monitoringReal-time solar wind monitoring Up to 1 hour warningUp to 1 hour warning

PredictionPrediction

Numerical ModelingNumerical Modeling

Inputs from Inputs from satellitesatellite– Magnetic field Magnetic field

magnitudemagnitude– Solar wind velocitySolar wind velocity– Solar wind densitySolar wind density

Models can predict Models can predict geomagnetic geomagnetic activityactivity

Goal: give client-Goal: give client-specific impact specific impact assessmentsassessments

ProblemsProblems– Modeling GICs is Modeling GICs is

very difficultvery difficult– False alarms are False alarms are

costlycostly

PredictionPrediction

Reducing the EffectsReducing the Effects ProblemsProblems

– Immense volume Immense volume of spaceof space

– Massive size of Massive size of power gridpower grid

– Devices to block Devices to block GIC flow would GIC flow would cost billions for cost billions for entire systementire system

Contingency Contingency StrategyStrategy– Reduce imported Reduce imported

powerpower– Disconnect links Disconnect links

between gridsbetween grids– Delay system Delay system

maintenancemaintenance– Put satellites to Put satellites to

“sleep”“sleep”

Impact ReductionImpact Reduction

ConclusionsConclusions

Current methods of predicting Current methods of predicting geomagnetic storms are becoming geomagnetic storms are becoming more accuratemore accurate

No feasible way of preventing No feasible way of preventing effectseffects

Low frequency of threats, but high Low frequency of threats, but high potential for damagepotential for damage

More research is necessaryMore research is necessary