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The Drivers of China’s CO2 Emissions
from 1980 to 2030
Index
� Catching up with the ‘North’
� China’s energy consumption and CO2 emissions
� Input-output analysis
� IO-IPAT SDA� Drivers of CO2 from 1980 to present
� China’s exports and climate change
� Scenario analysis
� Discussion
Dabo Guan
Electricity Policy Research Group
University of Cambridge
• The Economic Miracle: Great economic growth in East Asian prior to 1978 e.g.
Japan and Korea. Economic miracle in China after 1980.
• Improving Lifestyle and Structural Economic Changes:
‘Poverty’ ‘Adequate food
and clothes’‘Well to do’
‘Agriculture’ ‘Industry’ ‘Services’
Catching up with the ‘North’
Rural consumption expenditure patterns Urban consumption expenditure patterns
Catching up with the ‘North’
China’s energy is characterized by four features… …
1. Limited fossil energy resources
• The proven reserves of coal in China account for 11% of the global
reserves;
• China’s proven oil reserves ranks 10th in the world, 12% of world
reserves;
• The reserves of Natural gas accounts for 4% of world total.
However, China is housing 22% of world population, in terms of per
capita availability…. the value is less than half of world average.
China’s Energy
2. Rapid increase of energy production and consumption
China’s Energy
Data source: Chinese official statistics
Fuel types breakdown: energy consumption
China’s Energy
Data source: Chinese official statistics
China’s Energy Intensity over the past 40 years
3. Low efficiency:
China’s Energy
Data source: Chinese official statistics
2005 Energy Intensity of selected countries
measured in PPP
unit: Btu/$ in 2000 price
2005 Energy Intensity of selected countries
measured in MER
unit: Btu/$ in 2000 price
China’s Energy
Data source: EIA, International Energy Annual 2005
70.7
22.73.23.4
75.8
17.12.24.9
76.2
16.62.15.1
74.6
17.51.86.1
67.8
23.22.46.7
68.9
21.02.97.2
0%
50%
100%
1978 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
China's Energy Consumption Pattern
Coal Crude Oil Natural Gas Hydro-power, Nuclear Power, Wind Power
70.3
23.7
2.93.1
74.2
19.0
2.04.8
75.3
16.61.96.2
72.0
18.1
2.87.2
76.4
12.63.37.7
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1978 1990 1995 2000 2005
China's Energy Production Pattern
Coal Crude Oil Natural Gas Hydro-power, Nuclear Power, Wind Power
4. Coal-dominated energy structure
As a results,
China’s Energy
Environment Consequences, CO2 emissions
• Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency reported: China has overtaken the US in CO2 emissions in 2006
Global warming has resulted of China’s sea level rise – 2.5mm per year over the past 50 years,
1.4 times > world average; will continue to increase by 20-60 centimetres in the next decades
(IPCC 2007).
2005 World CO2 emission from the Consumption
and Flaring of Fossil Fuels
China’s CO2 emissions
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
1
2
3
4
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2004
Metric tons
Comparison of CO2/capita, for China, India and Japan
India - CO2/capita China - CO2/capita Japan - CO2/capita
The unit for Japan is the right-side y axis
However, the per capita emissions is still far lower than Japanese.
China’s Energy
10.4 kg CO2
= 3.6 ~ 6.1 kg CO2
1 lbs
Input-output Analysis
Input Output analysis examines the flows of goods and services and all intermediate transactions among the producing and consuming sectors of a country or a region (Leontief 1986).
Wassily Leontief
3.2 ~ 12 kg CO2
Source: Jamais Cascio, 2007
• I = PAT was first proposed in the early 1970s (Ehrlich and Holdren
1971; Commoner 1972; Ehrlich and Holdren 1972);
• to formalize the relationship between population, human welfare,
technology and environmental impacts
Impact (I) = Population (P) × Affluence (A)× Technology (T)
In our case,
CO2 = POP × GDP/POP × CO2/GDP
IO-IPAT Structural Decomposition Analysis
Impact = Population × Affluence × Technology (I=PAT)
In input-output terms:
• Affluence ---------Final demand
• Technology -------Leontief inverse (I-A)-1
Therefore, incorporating both IPAT and SDA, the IPAT-IO SDA is
ΔCO2= Δp·F·L·ys·yv + p·Δ F·L·ys·yv + p· F·Δ L·ys·yv + p· F· L·Δ ys·yv + p· F· L· ys·Δyv
SDA is defined as "the analysis of economic change by means of a set of
comparative static changes in key parameters in an input-output
table“ (Rose and Chen, 1991)
IO-IPAT Structural Decomposition Analysis
One of the 120 possible decomposition is:
… …
1)2(t2(t)2 ∆CO∆CO∆CO−
−=
1)(t1)(t1)(t1)(t1)(t(t)(t)(t)(t)(t) −−−−−⋅⋅⋅⋅−⋅⋅⋅⋅= vypp svs yLFyyLF
vv
vvv
ypyp
ypypyp
∆⋅⋅⋅⋅+⋅∆⋅⋅⋅+
⋅⋅∆⋅⋅+⋅⋅⋅∆⋅+⋅⋅⋅⋅∆=
−−−−−−−
−−−
)1t(1)(t1)(t1)(t(t)1)(t1)(t1)(t
(t)(t))1t(1)(t(t)(t)(t)1)(t(t)(t)(t)(t)
ss
sss
yLFyLF
yLFyLFyLF
For the non-uniqueness problem and solution, please refer to Dietzenbacher and Los
(1998) and Rørmose and Olsen (2005)
IO-IPAT Structural Decomposition Analysis
We employed 8 time-series input-output tables from 1981 to 2002 …
• Aggregate all IO tables into 18x18 production sectors
• Price deflation: double deflation process
• Eliminate the impact of the “other” column
• Normalise the energy data (37 production sectors + 2 household
sectors) with the IO sector
IO-IPAT Structural Decomposition Analysis
The Drivers of CO2 Emission – IO-IPAT SDA Perspective
IO-IPAT Structural Decomposition Analysis
The Contribution of Different Final Demand to the Change of CO2 Emission
IO-IPAT Structural Decomposition Analysis
Urban Household Appliances
Per capita living
space: 3.5m2 in
1980 to 15.5m2
in 2001.
IO-IPAT Structural Decomposition Analysis
• China reacted to both the increasing pollution caused by the production of exports
and fears of resource security by raising export taxes on certain products for 3 times
in 13 months.
• Raw metals and chemicals only represent 7% of the emissions from China’s exports
Chinese exports and CO2 emission
Chinese exports and CO2 emission
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Tg CO2
Transport/Services
Misc Manufacture
Electronics
Machinery/Equip
Metals
Wood/Mineral Prod
Chemicals/Plastics
Textiles
Ag+Mining
Chinese exports and CO2 emission
Scenario design and results
China’s annual GDP per capita growth rate averages 8.4% per year until
2010, slowing to 5.0% from 2010-2030.
China’s population would reach 1.5 billion by 2030 according to the
new population policy.
Reference scenario assumptions
Consumption expenditures are 19,850 2002 US$ in PPP per
urban dweller, and 4,600 2002 US$ in PPP per rural resident.
• The share of GDP in 2030: agriculture - 3%, Industry - 50% and services – 47%.
• China’s total final energy consumption would increase by 3.1%/year on average.
Scenario design and results
Reference scenario result
•China’s total CO2 emissions would reach 11,900 MMT
•Production-related emissions will more than double, from 4,800 MMT in 2005 to
11,000 MMT in 2030.
•Residential direct emission will increase from 213 MMT to about 900 MMT
•If we broaden our timescale to encompass 50 years: China’s annual CO2emissions would increase over 9-fold compared to the beginning of the reforms,
comparing to 3-fold for the US, and 6 times for Japan.
Scenario design and results
Westernizing lifestyles scenario assumptions
Scenario design and results
$25,000 in 2002 value
Scenario design and results
Westernizing scenario result
•China’s total CO2 emissions would reach 21,100 MMT, twice as large as the
number in reference scenario
•Production-related emissions will be 18,100 MMT in 2030.
•Residential direct emission will be 3,000 MMT if every urban Chinese drive as
much as American does.
Scenario design and results
CCS scenario
•China’s total electricity generation would need to increase to 8,627TWh by 2030
from 2,866 TWh in 2006.
•The newly built coal-fired plants would provide 3,500 TWh of electricity, which
accounts about 40% of the total generations by all coal-fired plants.
•If we assume that all newly installed coal-plants have CCS installed……
Scenario design and results
The projected production-related CO2 emissions in 2030 would drop 44% to 6,109
MMT from 10,954 MMT in our reference scenario, which is still 80% higher than 2002
emissions.
Discussion
• China’s annual CO2 emissions have increased more than fourfold since the
economic reforms began in 1978.
• Per capita GDP growth was the major factor in driving the increase of Chinese
CO2 emissions while efficiency gains reduced the emissions significantly.
• However, efficiency gains will be less effect if China continues to develop in a
similar manner as it has in recent decades.
• Our reference scenario projects a threefold increase in production-related
emissions in the next three decades over 2002 level; five-fold by westernized
lifestyle scenario.
• With the best available technology – CCS, CO2 will keep increasing about
80% of 2002 level.
Discussion
• China is a non-Annex B country in the Kyoto Protocol, but it’s the largest
contributor to climate change.
• China has several arguments for why it should not be required to limit its CO2emissions in the short term, for example exports.
• Assuming that at this point China would commit to reduce its 2030 CO2emissions to its 2000 level…
• China’s CO2 emission would need to drop more than 320%, from 11,900
MMT based on our reference scenario to about 3,200 MMT.
• All Chinese sectors that consume coal would be required to install CCS
devices.
• There are many hurdles in implementing new energy technologies in
China.
• Therefore further attention must be paid to the other driving forces, namely per
capita consumption volume and increasingly, the structure of consumption.
World Consumption Classes in 2006
Source: Modified from Alan Durning (1992)
Discussion
Challenging people to think differentlyChallenging people to think differentlyChallenging people to think differentlyChallenging people to think differently…………
about our environment!about our environment!about our environment!about our environment!
Dabo Guan: [email protected]
Thank you!