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Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
The Difference Between Information & Knowledge
INDIAN AGRICULTURE
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
Table of Contents
• Agrochemicals - Overview - Segments - Consumption - Growth Drivers - Top Companies - Key Challenges
• Insecticides, Fungicides & Herbicides
- Demand Pattern In Indian Market - Insecticides Market Share - Fungicides Market Share - Herbicides Market Share • Fertilizers - Overview - Consumption - Fertilizer – Indian Scenario
- Usage - Efficiency - Production - Imports - Subsidy
- State Contribution - Current Situation - Growth Drivers - Challenges - Policies
• Seeds - Overview - Growth Drivers - Production - Current Status - Total Cropped Area - Field Crops: Hybrid Seed Market - Vegetable Crops: Hybrid Seed
Market - Impact of new technology - Regulatory Framework &
Challenges - Productivity Challenges - Biotechnology & its effect - Way Forward - Summary
• Agriculture - Overview - Size - Major Acreages - Major Crops - Growth drivers - Major Issues
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
Key
Stat
istic
s At 196.90 million hectares, India holds the 2nd largest agricultural land in the world
Accounts for 12 % of the nation’s GDP, about 11% of its exports
Total Food grain production stood at 259.32 million tonnes in FY 2012
833.5 million rural population depends on agriculture as their principal means of livelihood
Overview of Indian Agriculture
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
Evolution of Agriculture in India
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
2012 GDP Contribution
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
Agriculture 12%
Forestry&Logging 2% Fishing
1%
Mining 2% Manufacturing
14%
Electricity 2%
Construction 8% Trade, Hotels&
Restaurant 19%
Transport 7%
Financing, Insurance 18%
Community 15%
GDP at 2004-05 prices
0.00
200.00
400.00
600.00
800.00
1000.00
1200.00
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
% Share 16.0% 15.5% 14.7% 14.3% 13.4% 12.3% 12.3% 12.0% 11.6%Agriculture 79.44 83.83 87.29 92.83 92.57 92.95 101.14 105.09 106.89Total GDP 495.24 542.18 594.06 649.44 693.11 752.68 822.83 873.93 917.57
16.0% 15.5% 14.7%
14.3% 13.4%
12.3% 12.3%
12.0% 11.6%
Total GDP Agriculture % ShareUSD Billion
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
Size
115120125130135140145150155
FY'07 FY'08 FY'09 FY'10 FY'11 FY'12
129
136.5 136.6 138
147.7 151.8
GDP by value added
CAGR:3.3%
Contribution of Agriculture & Allied Activities in GDP grew 2.8% in FY’12
GDP by value added of Agricultural and Allied activities (USD Billion)
Source: Ministry of Agriculture Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
Budget FY14: Agriculture remains priority
• Allocation of USD 145.8 billion for agriculture credit, an increase of USD 26.04 billion over last year • Funds allocated to the Agriculture Ministry increased 22 % to USD 5.63 billion.
• USD 711.4 million is planned for farm research • Total plan outlay for agriculture in FY 14 raised to USD 3.56 billion from USD 2.87 billion in FY 2013 • Allocation of USD 208.3 million under scheme of Bringing Green Revolution to Eastern India (BGREI) • Plans to launch crop diversification programmes in Punjab and Haryana • National Food Security Mission, a scheme to bridge yields gap of major crops provided USD 468.7
million • Funds for the Integrated Watershed Programme FY14 increased from USD 0.6 billion to USD 1.12
billion in FY13
Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Union Budget 2013-14
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
Key Agricultural States & their contributions
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
Acreages of Major Crops/Major States Area - Million Hectares Year 2011-12
Crops/States MP UP MH Rajasthan AP Karnataka Gujrat West Bengal
Bihar Punjab Orissa Haryana CG Tamil Nadu
Assam HP Kerala Uttaranchal
Total
Rice 1.66 5.95 1.55 0.13 4.10 1.42 0.84 5.43 3.32 2.82 4 1.24 3.77 1.9 2.54 0.21 40.88
Wheat 4.89 9.73 2.94 0.01 0.23 1.35 0.32 2.14 3.53 2.52 0.05 0.36 0.37 28.44
Total Pulses 5.19 2.42 3.27 4.36 1.93 2.3 0.96 0.16 0.52 0.83 0.18 0.81 0.67 23.60
Cotton 0.71 4.13 0.47 1.88 0.55 2.96 0.56 0.64 11.90
Soybean 5.67 3.01 0.9 0.13 0.19 9.90
Bajra 0.18 0.89 0.84 5.02 0.07 0.29 0.87 0.58 0.05 8.79
Gram 3.04 0.58 1.05 1.43 0.57 0.8 0.24 0.02 0.06 0.24 8.03
Maize 0.86 0.79 0.88 1.05 0.86 1.35 0.52 0.10 0.68 0.13 0.22 0.28 0.29 8.01
Jowar 0.39 0.19 3.38 0.55 0.28 1.14 0.12 0.07 0.2 6.32
Groundnut 0.21 0.3 0.42 1.31 0.68 1.69 0.07 0.39 5.07
Rapeseed & Mustard 0.79 2.5 0.42
0.09 0.03 0.54 0.24
4.61
Arhar(TUR) 0.53 1.23 0.48 0.77 0.24 0.03 0.14 3.42
Sugarcane 1.02 0.20 0.43 0.22 0.08 0.35 0.03 0.11 2.44
Sesamum 0.36 0.36 0.11 0.55 0.12 0.09 0.19 0.30 0.02 0.05 0.01 2.16
Potato 0.08 0.52 0.03 0.04 0.39 0.15 0.06 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.09 1.39
Mangoes 0.25 0.17 0.38 0.14 0.07 0.16 0.14 0.01 1.33
Jute 0.6 0.13 0.07 0.80
Chillies 0.05 0.01 0.10 0.20 0.11 0.06 0.08 0.01 0.05 0.02 0.69
Masoor 0.59 0.59
Onion 0.06 0.18 0.05 0.04 0.16 0.01 0.03 0.54
Sunflower 0.38 0.02 0.40
Tobacco 0.12 0.15 0.27
Garlic 0.06 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.14
Ragi 0.04 0.04
Pome Fruits 0.02 0.02 0.04 Grapes 0.04 0.04
Total 25.31 21.73 21.31 20.40 12.60 11.21 9.94 7.68 7.43 7.21 5.82 5.78 4.86 4.12 3.06 0.65 0.21 0.48 169.82
Major Crops Production
Production: Million tonnes
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
Major States Production of major Crops Year - 2012-13
Source: Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Department of Agriculture and Cooperation
Production : Million Tonnes
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
Growth Drivers
Demand- side drivers
Growth Drivers
Policy Support Supply-side drivers
• Population & income growth
• Increasing exports • Favorable demographics
• Growing institutional credit
• Increasing MSP’s • Introduction of new
schemes • Opening up of
exports of wheat and rice
• Hybrid & genetically modified seeds
• Mechanization • Irrigation facilities • Green Revolution
in Eastern India Confidential- For Kagashin clients only
Why India..?
1960-61 2011-12
Food grain production: 69.3 million tonnes
Food grain production: 259.3 million tonnes
• Large population • Rising urban and rural incomes • Increasing external demand
Robust Demand Attractive Opportunities
Policy Support Competitive advantages
Advantage India
• Increasing demand for hybrid seeds and fertilizers
• Potential storage capacity
expansion of 35 million tonnes
• High proportion of agricultural land • Leading producer of jute, pulses;
second largest producer of wheat, paddy, fruits and vegetables
• Increasing MSP • Schemes to incentivize states to
increase private investment in agriculture and allied sectors
• Launched National Food Security Mission (NFSM) to increase food production
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
Issues in Agriculture
Reducing Arable Land
•Reduction in agricultural land due to industrialization
Declining Holding Size & Fragmented Land Holdings
• Average size of the holdings declined from 2.28 hectares in 1970-71 to 1.16 hectares in 2010-11
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
Water Management
•Low utilization of rain water (~28.3 percent), due to lack of infrastructure
Climate Change
•Impact due to climate changes is expected to cause a drop between 4.5 and 9 percent by 2039 and by 25 percent by 2099
Unwanted Crop Diversification
• Diversification to commercially attractive crops even in adverse agro climatic conditions observed
Issues in Agriculture..Cont’d
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
Rural Credit
•Inefficiencies in disbursement of rural credit to farmers undermine the development of agriculture
Excessive Government intervention
•Government interventions in factor markets and in output markets has constrained growth of the rural non-farm sector
Over-regulation of domestic agricultural trade
•Over- regulation has led to increased costs, price risks and uncertainty
Issues in Agriculture..Cont’d
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
Fertilizer Overuse
•Overuse of fertilizer has resulted in nutrient imbalance, micro-nutrient deficiency and deterioration of soil health
Issues in Agriculture..Cont’d
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
AGROCHEMICALS
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
Table of Contents
• Agriculture - Overview - Size - Major Acreages - Major Crops - Growth drivers - Major Issues
• Insecticides, Fungicides & Herbicides
- Demand Pattern In Indian Market - Insecticides Market Share - Fungicides Market Share - Herbicides Market Share • Fertilizers - Overview - Consumption - Fertilizer – Indian Scenario
- Usage - Efficiency - Production - Imports - Subsidy
- State Contribution - Current Situation - Growth Drivers - Challenges - Policies
• Seeds - Overview - Growth Drivers - Production - Current Status - Total Cropped Area - Field Crops: Hybrid Seed Market - Vegetable Crops: Hybrid Seed
Market - Impact of new technology - Regulatory Framework &
Challenges - Productivity Challenges - Biotechnology & its effect - Way Forward - Summary
• Agrochemicals - Overview - Segments - Consumption - Growth Drivers - Top Companies - Key Challenges
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
Overview India is the fourth largest producer of Agrochemicals after United States, Japan and China.
Technical Grade Manufacturer
Raw Material Supplier
Formulator
Distributor End User
Industry Structure
Retailer
Loss caused by Pests (% FY2012)
Rodents & Others 15%
Weeds 33%
Diseases 26%
Insects 26%
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
Market Share by Segments
Indian Market -2012 US $ 2 Bn
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
Crop wise Agrochemical Consumption, FY2012
Cotton 50%
Plantation & Crops
Paddy 18%
Cereals, Millets & Oilseeds
7%
Fruits & Vegetables
14%
Sugarcane 2%
Others 1%
Source: Industry reports, Analysis by Tata Strategic
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
State wise key Statistics
Punjab, 0.25
Haryana, 0.11 Madhya Pradesh,
0.15
Gujrat, 0.08
Uttar Pradesh,
0.10
Rajasthan, 0.08
Chattisgarh, 0.06
Maharashtra, 0.32
Andhra Pradesh, 0.37
Orissa, 0.06
Karnataka, 0.11
Kerala , 0.02
Tamil Nadu, 0.09
West Bengal,
0.09
Bihar, 0.05
Assam & North East,
0.03
Others, 0.03
AP 24%
Maharashtra
13% Punjab 11%
Karnataka 7%
Gujrat 7%
MP& Chhattisgar
h 8%
Tamil Nadu
5%
Haryana 5%
West Bengal
5% Others
15%
Agrochemicals Consumption FY2012
Market Share Contribution (Indian Market: US $ 2 Bn), FY2012
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
Growth Drivers
Growth Drivers
Export Drivers
Domestic Drivers
• Excess production capacity • Low manufacturing cost • Patent expiry – Opportunity market estimated
over USD 3 Bn
• Increasing population • Limited farmland availability • Growing exports • Growth of horticulture & floriculture, • Initiatives taken by Government
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
Potential
COUNTRY WISE PESTICIDE CONSUMPTION
Country Pesticide Use (kg/ha)
Korea 16.56
Japan 10.80
China 2.0-2.5
Europe 1.90
USA 1.50
Thailand 1.37
Indonesia 0.58
INDIA 0.38
Country Agrochemicals Regd
Europe 600
Pakistan 495
Vietnam 432
USA 755
INDIA 210
No. OF PRODUCT REGISTERED
Crop Avoidable Loss (%) Cost : Benefit
Cotton 40-90 1 : 7
Paddy 21-51 1 : 7
Mustard 35-75 1 : 12
Sunflower 36-51 1 : 8
Groundnut 29-42 1 : 26
Maize 20-25 1 : 3
Pulses 40-88 1 : 4
Sugarcane 8-23 1 : 13
Vegetables 30-60 1 : 7
Fruits 20-35 1 : 4
INDIAN CROP YEILDS
CAGR of 14.7% expected during FY'2014-FY'2018 in the Indian crop protection business
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
Top companies
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Company Wise Market Share – FY 2013
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
Key Challenges
R&D costs
•High costs (~USD 180 Mn) and long time (~9 years) required for developing a new molecule
Genetically Modified (GM) seeds
•Self immunity of GM seeds negatively impact the business of agrochemicals
Inefficient Distribution systems
•Inefficiencies in retail distribution exists because of large end user base and improper management
Support for Integrated Pest Management (IPM) & rising demand for organic farming
•Increasing awareness of IPM, zero budget farming and usage of bio-pesticides
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
Cyclical Nature of Demand
•More demand for agrochemicals for kharif crops (~70% of annual consumption of Pesticides)
Increased Reliance on Exports
•Cyclical nature ,declining demand, resulting in increase exports for better capacity utilization
Shift in Government Policies in Recent Years
•Stringent registration and export formalities of products delays growth of agrochemicals in India
Longer period for registration of innovative products
•In India, registration of new products takes 3-5 years which discourages domestic manufacturers
Key Challenges..Cont’d
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
INSECTICIDES, FUNGICIDES & HERBICIDES
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
Table of Contents
• Agriculture - Overview - Size - Major Acreages - Major Crops - Growth drivers - Major Issues
• Agrochemicals - Overview - Segments - Consumption - Growth Drivers - Top Companies - Key Challenges
• Seeds - Overview - Growth Drivers - Production - Current Status - Total Cropped Area - Field Crops: Hybrid Seed Market - Vegetable Crops: Hybrid Seed
Market - Impact of new technology - Regulatory Framework &
Challenges - Productivity Challenges - Biotechnology & its effect - Way Forward - Summary
Fertilizers -Overview -Consumption -Fertilizer – Indian Scenario
-Usage -Efficiency -Production -Imports -Subsidy
-State Contribution -Current Situation -Growth Drivers -Challenges -Policies
Insecticides, Fungicides & Herbicides - Demand Pattern In Indian Market - Insecticides Market Share - Fungicides Market Share - Herbicides Market Share
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
Demand Pattern
Category Year- 2013 CAGR % Insecticides 1.00 10
Fungicides 0.41 21
Herbicides 0.45 18
Others 0.13 20
Total 2.00 13
USD Billion
• Increase in Wages & Scarcity along with consistent increased farmer’s awareness driving Herbicide
demand
• Growing demand of Fruits & Vegetables due to change in dietary pattern leading to more
demand for Fungicides & Plant Nutrition Products
Growth Drivers
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
Insecticides Market Share
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
Fungicides Market Share
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
Herbicides Market Share
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
FERTILIZERS
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
Table of Contents
• Agriculture - Overview - Size - Major Acreages - Major Crops - Growth drivers - Major Issues
• Agrochemicals - Overview - Segments - Consumption - Growth Drivers - Top Companies - Key Challenges
• Seeds - Overview - Growth Drivers - Production - Current Status - Total Cropped Area - Field Crops: Hybrid Seed Market - Vegetable Crops: Hybrid Seed
Market - Impact of new technology - Regulatory Framework &
Challenges - Productivity Challenges - Biotechnology & its effect - Way Forward - Summary
• Fertilizers - Overview - Consumption - Fertilizer – Indian Scenario
- Usage - Efficiency - Production - Imports - Subsidy
- State Contribution - Current Situation - Growth Drivers - Challenges - Policies
• Insecticides, Fungicides & Herbicides
- Category Pattern In Indian Market - Insecticides Market Share - Fungicides Market Share - Herbicides Market Share
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
Salient Features
Contributes to 40-50% of the agricultural productivity
India ranks 3rd in the world for fertilizer production
57 large-sized and 64 medium sized chemical fertilizer production units
Production of 37.6 Mn tonnes (9% rise yoy) of fertilizer in the year 2012-13
yoy- year over year basis
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
Contribution of Fertilizer industry in the Indian Economy
Agricultural development
•Played a vital role in the green revolution
Capital Investment
•Has more than USD 95 Billion investment
Corporate Development
•Many JV’s, multinationals and cooperatives formed in fertilizer Industry
Regional development
•States having fertilizers plants have a positive impact on their economy
Employment •Support given to 3.5 lakh families during the last three decades
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
Fertilizer Consumption country wise
396 375
284
204.9 188.3 156.1
122.1 114 101
N+P+K Consumption(kg/ha)
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
Nitrogen Fertilizer – India Scenario
Demand Application by Crop
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
Fertilizer Usage
0
5
10
15
20
30 25
2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
N
P2O5
K2O
Total
Million MT
Nutrient 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
N 12.72 13.77 14.42 15.09 15.58 16.56 17.31
P2O5 5.20 5.54 5.51 6.51 7.27 8.05 7.66
K2O 2.41 2.43 2.64 3.31 3.63 3.51 2.66
Total 20.33 21.74 22.57 24.91 26.48 28.12 27.63
Kg/hectare 106 112 115 127 135 144 145
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
Fertilizer use efficiency
Year Fertilizer Consumption
Food grain Production
MMT growth rate %
MMT growth rate %
1990-91 12.5 8.5 176.4 3.1
2000-01 18.1 4.1 209.8 1.9
2005-06 20.3 10.6 208.6 5.2
2006-07 21.6 4.4 230.7 1.6
2007-08 22.6 4.4 230.7 6.2
2008-09 24.9 10.4 234.5 1.6
2009-10 26.3 5.6 218.2 6.7
2010-11 28.1 6.8 241.5 9.6
Declining productivity of soil Imbalance in nutrient distribution Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
Fertilizer Production
Complex
5 0
10
25 20 15
2005
-06
2006
-07
2007
-08
2008
-09
2009
-10
2010
-11
Urea
DAP
Million MT
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
Imports
3 2 1 0
5 4
2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11
N
P
K
Year N P K Total
2005-06 1.39 1.145 2.764 5.299
2006-07 2.704 1.373 2.076 6.153
2007-08 3.708 1.391 2.668 7.767
2008-09 3.756 3.067 3.417 10.239
2009-10 3.488 2.85 3.19 9.528
2010-11 4.57 3.739 3.896 12.205
Major product imports 2011-’12
Urea 7.80
DAP 6.90
NP/NPK 4.41
MoP 4.00
million MT
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
Fertilizer Subsidy
Mounting subsidy bill over the years! 25
20
15
10
5
0
2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11
Urea
P&K
Total
Product 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11
Urea 2.386 2.636 3.539 5.124 6.777 4.001 4.30
P&K 1.143 1.466 2.288 3.763 14.522 7.767 6.70
Total 3.529 4.102 5.827 8.887 21.299 11.768 13.17
USD Billion
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
Objectives laid down for sector growth
• Expansion and efficiency enhancement through revamping of existing fertilizer plants • Setting up JV projects in countries having abundant and cheaper raw material resources • Exploring the use of alternative energy sources like liquefied natural gas, coal gasification,
etc. to overcome the constraints in the availability of conventional energy sources • Looking at possibilities of revival of some of the closed units by setting up Brownfield units
subject to availability of gas
Source: Ministry of Chemicals & Fertilizers, India
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
% Share of Various States (Major) in Consumption vis-à-vis Cultivable Area
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
Current Situation
Successful Capacity Build up Current status
Production
129.21 Lakh MT of Nitrogen and 47.55 Lakh MT of Phosphates production in 2012-13
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
Successful Joint Ventures Government is encouraging Indian companies to establish Joint Ventures in Countries with abundant raw material
Current Situation..Cont’d
Growth Drivers
• Fast Growing Population Pressure on land, shall demand increasing productivity
• New JV’s • 2/3rd population dependent on farming for source of income • Agricultural credit facilities/subsidies • Globally competitive products.
• Manufacturing expertise
Year Population (Million)
Food grain (Million MT)
2010 1170 218
2020 1330 277
2030 1450 306
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0 2010 2020 2030
Population Food grain
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
Challenges
• Efficiency Decreasing efficiency of fertilizers due to lack of R&D , wastage and improper handling • Investment This sector is characterized by low investment • Capacity Insufficient capacity to meet growing demand • Competition Indian production cost (high) and quality (low) compared to international standards • Changing Government subsidy policies • Decrease in nominal value of subsidy due to INR Depreciation
• Uncertainty on natural gas prices
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
Policies – Fertilizer Sector
RPS (1970-1990)
Reform Initiatives (1992-2003)
NPS Regime and FMS (2003-2009)
Objectives Objectives
Objectives
- Enhance consumption - Create Indigenous capacities
- Concerns on subsidy - Dec- control not in true sense - MRP’s untouched - Production norms lightened
- Incentives for increasing production efficiency and capacity utilization
- Data capturing through FMS
Impact Impact
Impact
- Progress in consumption, production
- Surplus food grain production
- Stagnation in production - Skewed usage of N - Learning period for domestic
industry
- No Capacity additions - Liquidity and profitability of
industry affected - Uncertain subsidy rates - Import price highly volatile
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
Nutrient Based Subsidy Scheme (2010): NBS for P&K Fertilizers
- Unshackling of fertilizer industry with floating MRP and fixed subsidy
- Availability of right mix of nutrients according to soil and crop needs at reasonable prices
- Access to efficient fertilizer products
2010-2011 - Impacting the revenue dynamics for domestic producers - Availability of fertilizers improved- Encouraged new entrants - Farmer’s prices of fertilizers remained reasonable - Fertilizer subsidy more or less in line with the provisions
Policy Objectives
Impact of NBS
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
NBS for P&K Fertilizers..Cont’d 2011-12 - Removal of cap on MRP leading to price fluctuations
- Low benchmark prices in the beginning led to delay in import decisions resulting in availability constraints
during initial Kharif, 2011
- Revised benchmark prices enabled improved availability from September 2011 onwards
- Mopping of subsidy on closing stocks of previous FY created uncertainty about stability of the policy
- Weakening of Rupee against Dollar impacted farmer’s price
- Adequate Stocks – phenomenon of brand pull noticed
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
Govt. intention of extending NBS Policy to Urea
- Urea producers reimbursed on cost plus basis - This includes cost of production plus a normative profit - Better urea pricing, reduce the government’s subsidy bill and Balanced Fertilization
- Shift from “fixed price- floating subsidy” to “fixed subsidy- floating price” - Improved pricing flexibility for the industry, reduced Government’s fertilizer subsidy bill - Shall address the issue of gas availability and it’s pricing - Encourage investments in Green-field projects which may become viable and attractive - Incentivize plans to enhance indigenous urea capacities by about 8 million tonnes/year, including
self sufficiency in coming years
Objective of extending NBS to Urea
Current Policy
Potential Impact
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
MobileFMS (mFMS) - initiative moving towards direct subsidization to farmers
Stages Modalities Likely Impact
Phase-I Subsidy released to manufacturers on confirmation of receipts by retailers
- Ensuring timely confirmation of receipts - Ensuring coverage of all the
retailers/wholesalers i - Shift in subsidy dispersal from receipts in
district basis to sales basis
Phase- II Subsidy to be routed through retailers
- Working capital requirement of dealers will increase by over 3 times.
- Industry exposure to retailers/dealers will increase by 3 times
- Significant impact on cash cycle completion
Phase- III Direct subsidy to farmers
- Purchase capacity of small and marginal farmers
- Avoid delay in subsidy re-imbursement to farmers
- The growth momentum in fertilizer’s usage is likely to be affected
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
SEEDS
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
Table of Contents
• Agriculture - Overview - Size - Major Acreages - Major Crops - Growth drivers - Major Issues
• Agrochemicals - Overview - Segments - Consumption - Growth Drivers - Top Companies - Key Challenges
• Insecticides, Fungicides & Herbicides
- Demand Pattern In Indian Market - Insecticides Market Share - Fungicides Market Share - Herbicides Market Share • Fertilizers - Overview - Consumption - Fertilizer – Indian Scenario
- Usage - Efficiency - Production - Imports - Subsidy
- State Contribution - Current Situation - Growth Drivers - Challenges - Policies
• Seeds - Overview - Growth Drivers - Production - Current Status - Total Cropped Area - Field Crops: Hybrid Seed Market - Vegetable Crops: Hybrid Seed
Market - Impact of new technology - Regulatory Framework &
Challenges - Productivity Challenges - Biotechnology & its effect - Way Forward - Summary
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
Overview • Increased demand for high-yielding varieties to ensure food security has led to growth in
Indian seed industry over years
0.87 1.00
1.25 1.50
1.75 1.83
2.25
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
USD Billion
Confidential- For Kagashin clients only May, 2014
Indian Seed Market
Cotton 34%
Paddy 18%
Wheat 12%
Maize 12%
Sorghum& Millets
3%
Sunflower 2%
other 1%
Vegetables 18%
Total Indian Seed market (6th position in world) – 1.83 USD Bn as of FY’2013.
India cotton seed sales in 2012 - $658 Mn (66.4% of Asia & 34.8 % of global consumption) Source-Industry & Primary Source, Ken Research
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Major Seed Producing States
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Growth Drivers
Growth in Agriculture
•Growth in demand of agricultural products
Improvement in Seed Replacement Rates (SRR)
SRR in hybrids crops like Cotton, Sunflower, Bajra, and Jowar is 100%
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Innovation in seed
•Increase in investments in R&D by both public and private sector
Increase in vegetable seed market size
•Increase in income led to more consumption of fruits and vegetables. Current vegetable seed market size of 0.015 USD Billion is likely to double in 3-4 years
Effect of PPV&FR Act
•Due to PPV & FR Act, the private sector’s participation has increased in R & D of Open Pollinated varieties, particularly in Rice and wheat
Attractive for Investment
•Govt. FDI allowance in selected agri- sectors including seed production attracts investment
Improved agronomy in cotton
Growth Drivers…Cont’d
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Production/availability of Seed
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Contribution of the private sector in hybrid seed market
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Evolution of the Indian Seed Industry 19
60-1
980’
s - Minimal Private sector participation - R&D in public domain - Restrictions on germplasm exchange, foreign ownership etc
Post
NSP
198
8 - Seed industry boomed as a result of Govt. initiatives - FDI allowed and encouraged - Imports of improved varieties and breeding lines liberalized - Trade regulations liberalized
Curr
ent S
tatu
s - Private sector accounts for 80% turnover in seed - Almost 1/3 companies have a global technology/financial partner - Private seed companies are spending 10-12% of their turnover in R&D -R&D budget of medium sized companies is growing @ 20% p.a.
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Current status
• Indian seed sector has grown @ 12% compared to <5% growth of global seed market
• Private sector investing in self pollinated crops to develop and promote new varieties
• Seed replacement ratio continues to be low
– Large acres of self pollinated crops – rice, wheat, legumes, etc.
– Low hybrid adoption rates in most crops due to marginal growing conditions and/or
subsistence farming
• Medium and small sized companies are making investments in research and seed processing infrastructure
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Cotton
Corn
Millet
Vegetables
Sunflower
Sorghum
(Kh)
Paddy
Wheat
Sugarcane
Potato
Groundnut
Soyabean
Gram
Mustar
d
Tur Sorghum (Rabi)
Others
Total Area is 196.90 Million Hectares.
Total Cropped Area
Hybrid crops
Crop Area (M Ha) Cotton 9
Corn 7
Millet 9
Vegetables 7 Sunflower 1.4
Sorghum (Kh) 4
Paddy 43
Sorghum (Rabi) 5
Wheat 26.4
Tur 3.4 Mustard 5.3 Gram 6.4 Soyabean 8.1 Groundnut 6.6 Potato 1.3 Sugarcane 4.3 Others 49.7
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Field crops: Hybrid seed market
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Growth trend of key field crops’ hybrid seed market
Est. sale in ‘000MT (corn, rice) and million packets (cotton)
Crop 2005 2008 % inc. in 3 years
2013
Cotton 14 23 65% 30
Corn 45 65 45% 80
Rice 9 19 110% 40
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Vegetable crops: Hybrid seed market
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Growth trend of vegetable hybrid seed market Crop Sales Volume- 1998 Sales Volume- 2008 Sales Volume - 2013
Tomato
Regular 22 26 35
TLCV Rest Oval 2 5 20
TLCV Rest Acidic 0 17 7
BWR Rest 0.50 2 3
Watermelon 40 70 85
Melon 7 12 15
Chilli Pepper 20 35 55
Okra 250 900 1300
Cabbage 30 50 60
Cauliflower 20 40 50
Brinjal 15 25 35
Ridgegourd 7 27 42
Bittergourd 15 50 70
Bottlegourd 25 50 70
Bell Pepper 0.50 1.50 2
Carrot 12 25
Cucumber 25 50
Impact of new technology on Cotton
• Bt cotton is the only GM technology approved in India
• First three hybrids of Bt cotton were approved in 2002
• A total of 4 events have been approved
– Bollgard (Cry1Ac) from Monsanto – Event 1 (Cry1Ac) from JK Agrigenetics – Fusion Bt (Cry1Ac+Cry1Ab) from Nath Biogene – Bollgard II (Cry1Ac + Cry2Ab) from Monsanto
• More than 150 Bt cotton hybrids are now available for the farmer to choose from
• More than 80% of the country’s cotton growing area is under Bt cotton • Cotton production has increased from 12.5 million bales in 2002-03 to 31 million bales in 2007-08
• India has become the second largest producer and second largest exporter of cotton in the world
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Regulatory framework
– Seed Act, 1966 and Seed Control Order, 1983 - (Seeds Bill 2002 is pending Parliamentary Approval)
– Protection of Plant Varieties and Farmers’ Rights Act, 2001
– Environment Protection Act, 1986 – Biological Diversity Act, 2002
– Destructive Insects and Pests Act, 1914 – Plants, Fruits and Seeds (Regulation of import in India) Order 1989
– Cotton Seed Acts in some states
– Export/Import policies and Regulations
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Regulatory Challenges
New Seed Bill • Intends to improve the regulatory framework to encourage the growth of the seed industry
• Self certification through registration of seed producers and accreditation of seed testing labs
- Registration after 2 years of VCU testing - No provisional registration of transgenic hybrids/varieties
- Duplication of agronomic testing of transgenic hybrids/varieties under EPA and New Seed Bill
- Performance label and compensation
- Price Control
- Complete exemption of farmers form the operation of the Seed Bill
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PPV & FR Act, 2001 - Good beginning to protect the rights of the breeders
- Does not conform to UPOV, 1991
- Gives farmers the right to sell unbranded seed of protected variety
- Allows “innocent infringement” by farmers - Compulsory licensing and compensation
- Security of the material during field testing for DUS still to be established
- Efficacy of enforcement still needs to be established
- Specific issues still need to be resolved to address the concerns of the industry (e.g. extant hyrbids/varieties)
Regulatory Challenges..Cont’d
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Biodiversity Act, 2002
– Restricting exchange of germplasm even of those crops which are covered in the ITPGR
Price Control (through State Acts)
– Arbitrary price controls based on political motivations – Disincentive to invest in research and infrastructure
– Lead to cost cutting even in critical processes – could affect seed quality adversely
Export/Import regulations
– Inconsistent and politically motivated for commercial seed
– NBPGR retains a sample of seed incase of germplasm imports
– Export of germplasm/research material not allowed in many crops
Regulatory Challenges..Cont’d
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Productivity challenges
• Small marginal farmers with lack of awareness about new technology
• Poorly managed or non-functional Govt. extension systems
• Availability of institutional credit and crop insurance
• Last mile gap (in remote areas) in the delivery / distribution channels
• Abiotic stresses – Drought
• Low or erratic rainfall in rainfed situations • Light soils with poor water holding capacity • Inability to irrigate enough or on time
– Water logging • Poor drainage • Excessive rainfall
– Sub optimal temperatures – Saline soils – Nutrient deficiencies
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Productivity challenges..Cont’d
• Biotic stresses
– Fungal, Bacterial and Viral diseases
– Sucking and chewing insect pests
• Sub optimal agronomy
• No or improper use of fertilizer
• Sub optimal cropping systems
• Poor weed management
• Restricted seed supplies due to negative impact of policy
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Biotechnology and its effects
• Use of Molecular markers
– Stacking of traits
– Increasing breeding gains – Accelerating product development cycles – Quality assurance
– Protection of IP
• Functional genomics • Other tools viz. Doubled haploid, etc
• Success achieved
– Bollworm resistance in cotton
• Other traits of importance
– Weed management
– Insect resistance in other crops
– Nutritional enhancement
– Disease resistance
– Drought tolerance
– Nutrient stress tolerance
– Yield enhancement
GM applications of biotechnology
Non-GM applications of biotechnology
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Technologies under development in India
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Way Forward
• Continued focus on customer requirements
– Product fit – Economic benefit – Freedom to choose
• Conducive regulatory environment
– Minimal regulation and compliance
– Freedom to price based on ‘value to customers’
– Harmonization of various laws and Uniform enactment of central laws across all states
– Encouragement, through financial incentives, for investment in infrastructure
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Public private partnership
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Summary • Indian seed industry is poised to grow at a rate faster than the global rate (huge opportunity to increase
SRR) • It has made tremendous contribution to increase productivity through development of superior
hybrids • It is investing in research and infrastructure • It has spearheaded the introduction of new technology (Bt cotton)
• Indian seed industry needs policy support to make even bigger contributions in the future:
– Encouragement for investment in research and infrastructure – Minimal regulation and compliance – Freedom to operate based on free market principles – Streamlining of regulatory processes to accelerate the development and introduction of new GM
technology
• Robust PPP models are needed to better serve the farmers by removing the various productivity constraints
through technological interventions
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Thank You
Office No 339, Regus Business Centre 3rd Floor Neo Vikram New Link Road, Andheri (W) Mumbai 400 053 Email: [email protected]
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