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The Development of a Method to Estimate Changes in Freight Mode Share. TRB Transportation Planning Applications Conference. Marty Milkovits Dan Beagan Elaine McKenzie . May 9, 2013. Context. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Transportation leadership you can trust.
The Development of a Method to Estimate Changes in Freight Mode Share
TRB Transportation Planning Applications Conference
Marty MilkovitsDan BeaganElaine McKenzie
May 9, 2013
2
ContextObjective: Estimate impacts of changes in commodity volumes, shipment origins/destinations, modal shares, and modal energy use and emission rates on energy and GHG emissions
Data set: Freight Analysis Framework (FAF) 3.3 commodity flow database
Key question for mode share: How much freight could be shifted to use non-trucking modes?
3
DataFAF 3.3 Commodity db: 2007 & Forecasts through 2050– 49 commodities– 15K+ FAF Region OD interchanges – 3 trade types (import/export/domestic)– ~1M records with non-zero commodity flow
Modes– Truck– Rail– Water– Mixed– Pipeline
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 -
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
All Commodities
Non-Truck
Truck
Hundreds of Miles
2007
Ann
ual k
iloto
ns
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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 480%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
All Commodities
Observed Truck Smoothed Truck Smoothed Non-Truck
Hundreds of Miles
Mod
e Sh
are
5
Modal Share Projection Options
Discrete Choice Model– Cannot identify decision maker from aggregate
commodity flows
Modal Elasticity– No cost or pricing information available
Market Segmentation– Identify markets by commodity and distance– Average truck / non-truck shares for each market
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Market Segmentation
Assumption– Non-truck mode shares could improve to average
for each distance bin / commodity market
Approach– Calculate average mode share for 100 mile bins by
commodity – Proportionally increase “underperforming” non-
truck flows up to average– Reduce above average truck flows
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Market Segmentation
Strengths– Able to develop and implement on a national
scale – Commodity specific– Leverages all data available
Limitations– Accessibility assumptions may be
unreasonable for some locations
8
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Results
Base Reallocate to Average
Reallocate to Average + 5%
Reallocate to Average + 10%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Mode Share
Non-TruckTruck
Base Reallocate to Average
Reallocate to Average + 5%
Reallocate to Average +
10%
-
2,000.00
4,000.00
6,000.00
8,000.00
10,000.00
12,000.00
14,000.00
16,000.00
Fuel Cycle Energy (trillion BTU)
Non-TruckTruck
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For more information...
Project Website
nrel.gov/analysis/transportation_futures/
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