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The Decline of Institutional Religion
Faith Angle ForumSouth Beach, Florida
March 18, 2013
www.pewforum.org
March 18, 2013
Luis LugoPew Research CenterWashington, D.C.
62
60
70
80
90
100
Protestant
%
Long-Term Trends in Religious Affiliation
I
1Source: General Social Surveys, 1972-2010. Other religious affiliations and those who did not give an answer are not shown.
51
26 25
7
18
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1972 2010
Catholic
None
1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
30
40
50
60 %
White evangelical
53
48
Declining Share Are Protestant
2Source: Aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, 2007-2012.
0
10
20
30
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
White mainline
Black Protestant
Other minority Protestant
15
20
25
Nothing in particular
%
15
20
Growth of the Religiously Unaffiliated
3Source: Aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, 2007-July 2012.
0
5
10
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Agnostic
Atheist
Trends in Religious Affiliation, 2007-2012
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 201207-12 Change
% % % % % %
Christian 78 77 77 76 75 73 -5
Protestant 53 52 51 51 50 48 -5
White evang. 21 19 20 19 18 19 -2
White mainline 18 18 17 17 17 15 -3
Black Protestant 8 8 9 9 9 8 --
Other minority Prot. 6 6 6 6 6 6 --
4Source: Aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, 2007- July 2012. In the change column, figures that are statistically significant are shown in bold. Figures may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Catholic 23 22 23 23 23 22 -1
Mormon 2 2 2 2 2 2 --
Orthodox 1 1 1 1 1 1 --
Other faith 4 5 5 5 5 6 +2
Unaffiliated 15.3 16.0 16.8 17.4 18.6 19.6 +4.3
Atheist 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.4 +0.8
Agnostic 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.6 3.0 3.3 +1.2
Nothing in particular 11.6 11.9 12.4 12.9 13.4 13.9 +2.3
Don’t know 2 2 2 2 1 2 --
100 100 100 100 100 100
2007 2012 Change
% who describe themselves as religiously unaffiliated among… % %
U.S. general public 15.3 19.6 +4.3
Men 18 23 +5
Women 13 17 +4
Growth in Religious Disaffiliation, by Demographic Groups
5Source: Aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, 2007 and 2012. Changes that are statistically significant are shown in bold.
College grad+ 17 21 +4
Some college or less 15 19 +4
$75,000+ 16 21 +5
$30,000-$74,999 15 20 +5
<$30,000 17 20 +3
Northeast 15 21 +6
Midwest 15 19 +4
South 12 15 +3
West 21 26 +5
2007 2012 Change
% who describe themselves as religiously unaffiliated among… % %
Growth in Religious Disaffiliation, by Race
6Source: Aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, 2007 and 2012. Hispanic figures basedonly on surveys that included Spanish interviewing. Changes that are statistically significant are shown in bold.
U.S. general public 15.3 19.6 +4.3
White 15 20 +5
Black 13 15 +2
Hispanic 16 16 --
Religious Switching: Recruitment
83 17Protestant
Same religion Different religion
Current religion
% who were raised in…
7Source: Pew Research Center survey, June 28-July 9, 2012.
25
89
74
11
0 20 40 60 80 100
Unaffiliated
Catholic
Religious Switching: Retention
80 6 13Protestant
Same religion Different religion Unaffiliated
Childhood religion
% who are currently…
8Source: Pew Research Center survey, June 28-July 9, 2012.
58
64
40
21 14
0 20 40 60 80 100
Unaffiliated
Catholic
14
58%
19
22%
Unaffiliated
General public
Very Somewhat
Importance of Religion
II
9Source: Pew Research Center survey, June 28-July 9, 2012. Figures may not add to 100% due to rounding.
19
2
22
14
0 20 40 60 80 100
Nothing in particular
Atheist/Agnostic
12%
16%
29%
Agnostic
Atheist
Religious unaffiliated
Composition of the Unaffiliated
Nothing in particular
10Source: Pew Research Center survey, June 28-July 9, 2012. Figures may not add to 100% due to rounding.
42%
Religiously indifferent
particular
71%
6
48
23
Believe in
Identify as a
religious person
All NiPs Religious Unaffiliated Religiously Indifferent
A Closer Look at the Nothing in Particulars
12
22
49
64
27
39
0 20 40 60 80
Pray daily or more
Believe in God,
absolutely certain
11Source: Pew Research Center survey, June 28-July 9, 2012.
30
77%
38
20%
Unaffiliated
Affiliated
Yes, absolutely certain Yes, but less certain Net
97
68
Believe in God or Universal Spirit?
12Source: Pew Research Center/Religion & Ethics NewsWeekly survey, June 28-July 9, 2012. Figures may not add to 100% due to rounding.
39
9
42
29
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Nothing in particular
Atheist/Agnostic 38
81
21
66%
20
22%
Unaffiliated
Affiliated
Daily Weekly/monthly
Frequency of Prayer
13Source: Pew Research Center/Religion & Ethics NewsWeekly survey, June 28-July 9, 2012. Figures may not add to 100% due to rounding.
27
6
24
11
0 20 40 60 80 100
Nothing in particular
Atheist/Agnostic
WeeklyMonthly/Yearly
Seldom/Never DK N
% % % %
U.S. general public 37 33 29 1 = 100 17,010
Affiliated 48 34 18 1 = 100 13,821
Christian 49 33 17 1 = 100 13,086
Protestant 49 33 17 1 = 100 7,316
White evangelical 63 27 10 1 = 100 3,473
Frequency of Worship Attendance
14
White evangelical 63 27 10 1 = 100 3,473
White mainline 27 43 30 * = 100 3,035
Black Protestant 56 32 12 1 = 100 1,319
Catholic 41 41 17 1 = 100 3,692
White Catholic 41 41 18 * = 100 2,546
Hispanic Catholic 42 41 16 1 = 100 866
Unaffiliated 5 22 72 1 = 100 2,942
Atheist/Agnostic 3 13 83 1 = 100 908
Nothing in particular 6 26 67 1 = 100 2,034
Source: Aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, January-July 2012. Whites and blacks include only those who are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race. Figures may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Unaffiliated Affiliated
% %
Spiritual energy located in physical things such as mountains, trees and crystals
30 25
Yoga, not just as exercise, but as a spiritual practice
28 23
Other Spiritual Beliefs% saying they believe in each of the following
15
Reincarnation, that people will be reborn again and again
25 24
Astrology, that the position of stars/planets can affect people’s lives
25 25
Evil eye, that certain people can cast curses or spells that cause harm
12 17
Source: Pew Research Center for the People & the Press and Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life, August 2009. Q291a-c,e,f.Other responses and those who did not give an answer are not shown.
Unaffiliated Affiliated
% saying they have experienced each of the following: %
%
Been in touch with someone who has already died
31 29
Supernatural Experiences
16
“Religious” or mystical experiences 30 53
Seen or been in the presence of a ghost 19 18
Consulted a fortuneteller or psychic 15 15
Source: Pew Research Center for the People & the Press and Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life survey, August 2009.Q292a-c;Q290.Other responses and those who did not give an answer are not shown.
Often Sometimes Rarely /never DK
% % % %
Affiliated 70 22 8 1 =100
Christian 70 21 8 1 = 100
Protestant 73 20 7 1 = 100
White evangelical 79 15 5 1 = 100
White mainline 62 29 9 * = 100
Reflecting on the Meaning of Life
How often, if at all, do you think about the meaning and purpose of life?
17
White mainline 62 29 9 * = 100
Black Protestant 82 14 3 1 = 100
Catholic 63 25 11 1 = 100
White Catholic 67 25 8 * = 100
Hispanic Catholic 57 23 17 3 = 100
Unaffiliated 53 29 17 1 = 100
Atheist/Agnostic 45 37 18 * = 100
Nothing in particular 56 26 17 1 = 100
Source: Pew Research Center survey, June 28-July 9, 2012. Q21a. Whites and blacks include only those who are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race. Figures may not add to 100% due to rounding.
75 15 8Affiliated
Religious Spiritual only Neither
Identity as a Spiritual or Religious Person
18
18
7
23
37
34
39
42
57
36
Unaffiliated
Atheist/Agnostic
Nothing in particular
Source: Pew Research Center survey, June 28-July 9, 2012. Q50. Whites and blacks include only those who are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race. Figures may not add to 100% due to rounding.
% of “nothing in particulars” who are…
Nothing in
particular
%
Looking for a Religion?
19Source: Pew Research Center/Religion & Ethics NewsWeekly survey, June 28-July 9, 2012.
% of “nothing in particulars” who are… %
Looking for religion that is right for them 10
Not doing this 88
Don’t know 2
100
32
21
67
77
18-29
30-49
Unaffiliated Affiliated Don't know/Refused
Religious Affiliation by Age
III
20
21
15
9
77
84
90
30-49
50-64
65+
Source: Aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, January-July 2012.
Life-Cycle Effect on Affiliation
% unaffiliated with a religion, by generation
21Source: General Social Surveys.
Importance of Religion
% saying religion is very important in their lives, by generation
22Source: Gallup Surveys.
Daily Prayer
% saying they pray daily, by generation
23Source: General Social Surveys.
Attendance at Religious Services
% saying they attend several times a week, every week or nearly every week, by generation
24Source: General Social Surveys.
38
49
40
50
60
Seldom/never attend
%
Trends in Disaffiliation, by Religious Attendance
% of each attendance category that is unaffiliated
25Source: Aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, 2007-2012.
3 2
1113
0
10
20
30
2007 2012
Attend monthly/yearly
Attend weekly or more
2008 2009 2010 2011
Common Reasons for Leaving Childhood Religion
Raised Catholic, now
unaffiliated
Raised Protestant,
now unaffiliated
% saying important reason left former religion % %
Just gradually drifted away from the religion 71 71
Spiritual needs not being met 43 39
Stopped believing in the religion’s teachings 65 50
Found a religion they liked more 10 11
Unhappy with teachings about the Bible 29 36
Dissatisfied with atmosphere at worship services 26 29
Dissatisfied with clergy at congregation 18 25
26Source: Faith in Flux: Changes in Religious Affiliation in the U.S., April 2009, Pew Research Center’s Forum on Religion & Public Life
Liminal Nones
% of liminal nones in various religious traditions
27Source: Chaeyoon Lim, Carol Ann MacGregor, and Robert Putnam, Secular and Liminal: Discovering Heterogeneity Among Religious Nones, Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion, Volume 49, Number 4, December 2010.
Ideology Among Registered Voters
Conser-
vative
Mod-
erate
Lib-
eral% % %
All registered voters 39 36 21
Unaffiliated 20 38 38Atheist/Agnostic 13 32 51Nothing in particular 23 41 31
IV
28Source: Aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, January- July 2012. Based on registered voters. Those who did not give an answer are not shown. Whites and blacks include only those who are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race.
Nothing in particular 23 41 31
Affiliated 44 36 17Christian 46 35 15Protestant 48 33 15White evangelical 65 25 7White mainline 39 39 20Black Protestant 33 39 23
Catholic 39 42 17White Catholic 41 42 15
Social and Political Issues
Abortion should be…
U.S. general public Unaffiliated Affiliated
% % %
Legal in all/most cases 53 72 49
Illegal in all/most cases 41 24 46
Don’t know 6 4 6
100 100 100
Same-sex marriage…
Favor 48 73 41
29
Source: Abortion figures from aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, 2011-2012. Same-sex marriage figures from aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, 2012. Views on role of government from Pew Research Center for the People & the Press survey, January 2012. Figures may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Favor 48 73 41
Oppose 44 20 50
Don’t know 9 7 9
100 100 100
Prefer…
Bigger gov’t, more services 39 42 38
Smaller gov’t, fewer services 52 50 52
Depends/don’t know 9 8 10
100 100 100
Party Identification Among Registered Voters
Rep/
Lean Rep
Dem/
Lean Dem% %
All registered voters 43 48
Unaffiliated 26 63Atheist/Agnostic 18 73Nothing in particular 30 58
30Source: Aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, January- July 2012. Based on registered voters. Those with no party preference (who refused to lean) are not shown. Whites and blacks include only those who are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race.
Nothing in particular 30 58
Affiliated 48 45Christian 49 43Protestant 50 42White evangelical 71 22White mainline 52 40Black Protestant 7 89
Catholic 44 47White Catholic 50 41
Religious Composition of Democratic/Democratic-Leaning Registered Voters
24%
5%
18%
OtherReligiously Unaffiliated
Hispanic Catholic
31Source: Aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, January-July 2012. Based on registered voters. Whites and blacks include only those who are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race. “Other” includes Protestants and Catholics of a race or ethnic group not shown and those affiliated with other religions.
16%
14%9%
13%
WhiteevangelicalProtestant
White mainlineProtestant
Black Protestant
White Catholic
70
67
67
47
47
Unaffiliated Affiliated
Are too concerned with money and power
Focus too much on rules
Are too involved with politics
Views About Churches and Religious Organizations
% saying they agree that churches and other religious organizations do each of the following
67
78
77
52
41
90
90
81
Bring people together and strengthen community bonds
Play important role helping poor and needy
Protect and strengthen morality
Are too involved with politics
32Source: Pew Research Center survey, June 28-July 9, 2012. Q73a-g. Those saying “disagree” and those who did not give an answer are not shown.
32%
51
75%
Churches should keep
Important for a president to have strong
religious beliefs
Affiliated Unaffiliated
Views on Religion and Politics
33Sources: Data on president’s religious beliefs and churches endorsing candidates comes from Pew Research Center survey, June 28-July 9, 2012. Data on church involvement in political matters comes from Pew Research Center survey, March 2012.
75
66
64
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Churches should not endorse candidates
Churches should keep out of political matters
In Their Own Words – Main Reasons for Leaving Childhood Religion
Raised Catholic, now
unaffiliated
Raised Protestant,
now unaffiliated
% %
Religious and moral beliefs 48 40
Do not believe in former religion/any religion 21 14
Biblical/Scriptural reason 2 4Biblical/Scriptural reason 2 4
Religious institutions, practices and people 36 20
Pedophilia scandal/Molestation 2 0
Personal spirituality 6 9
Life cycle changes 5 4
Family reasons 4 2
Other reasons 10 21
Don’t know/Refused 4 10
34Source: Faith in Flux: Changes in Religious Affiliation in the U.S., April 2009, Pew Research Center’s Forum on Religion & Public Life
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
Religious Commitment Score
Africa Kuwait
Mexico
North America
West Europe
East Europe
Latin America
Wealth and Religious Commitment
(2)
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000
Religious Commitment Score
Per Capita GDP (Standardized)
U.S.
West Europe
East Europe
Canada
Israel
Mexico Latin America
Middle East
Asia
Africa
This chart has been reprinted from “World Publics Welcome Global Trade – But Not Immigration,” Pew Global Attitudes Project, 2007. 35
Increasing Losing Same (vol.) DK
% % % %
U.S. general public 25 66 2 7 = 100
Unaffiliated 27 63 2 7 = 100
Atheist/Agnostic 34 59 2 5 = 100
Nothing in particular 24 65 2 8 = 100
Influence of Religion on Society
% saying religion as a whole is … its influence on American life
36
Affiliated 24 67 2 6 = 100
Christian 24 68 2 6 = 100
Protestant 25 67 2 6 = 100
White evangelical 21 72 2 4 = 100
White mainline 20 73 2 6 = 100
Black Protestant 33 60 2 4 = 100
Catholic 21 70 3 6 = 100
White Catholic 18 75 2 5 = 100
Hispanic Catholic 27 60 5 8 = 100
Source: Pew Research Center survey, June 28-July 9, 2012. Q42. Whites and blacks include only those who are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race. Figures may not add to 100% due to rounding.
88
80
60
70
80
90
100
Agree that "I never doubt the existence of God."
%
Declining Share Say They “Never Doubt” the Existence of God
37Source: Surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, 1987-2012.
10
18
0
10
20
30
40
50
1987 1997 2007 2012
Disagree
Religious Attendance of U.S. Adults, 2003-2012
39
37
3433
30
40
50
Weekly or more
Monthly/Yearly
%
38
25
29
0
10
20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Seldom/Never
Source: Aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, 2003-2012.
59 60 6159 59 60 61
59 59
60
70
80
90
100
Importance of Religion, 1992-2012
% who say religion is very important
58 59 58 58 5760 61
59 59 5860 61
59 5957 56
5456
54 5558
0
10
20
30
40
50
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
39Source: Surveys conducted by Gallup, 1992-2012.
7678 77
8078 78 78 79
8178 78
76
50
60
70
80
90
Importance of Prayer, 1987-2012
Agree
Do you agree or disagree that prayer is an important part of your daily life?
2321 22
1922 21 21 21
1821 20
23
0
10
20
30
40
50
1987 1988 1990 1991 1994 1997 1999 2002 2003 2007 2009 2012
40
Disagree
Source: Surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, 1987-2012.
2007 2012 Change
% who describe themselves as religiously unaffiliated among… % %
U.S. general public 15.3 19.6 +4.3
Religious Disaffiliation by Demographic Groups
(3)
41Source: Aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, 2007 and 2012. Hispanic figures basedonly on surveys that included Spanish interviewing. Changes that are statistically significant are shown in bold.
White 15 20 +5
Black 13 15 +2
Hispanic 16 16 --
Married 14 14 --
Not married 20 24 +4
Married
Living
with partner
Divorced/ Separated/Widowed Never married
% % % %
U.S. general public 51 7 19 23 = 100
Affiliated 54 6 20 20 = 100
Christian 54 6 21 19 = 100
Protestant 54 5 23 19 = 100
White evangelical 62 3 22 13 = 100
Marital Status of Religious Groups
White evangelical 62 3 22 13 = 100
White mainline 58 6 22 14 = 100
Black Protestant 36 6 27 32 = 100
Catholic 54 8 18 20 = 100
White Catholic 58 6 19 16 = 100
Hispanic Catholic 49 10 17 25 = 100
Unaffiliated 39 11 16 34 = 100
Atheist/agnostic 36 11 12 40 = 100
Nothing in particular 40 11 17 32 = 100
42
Source: Aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, January - July 2012. Results repercentaged to exclude nonresponse. White and blacks include only those who are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race.
Current Marital Status, 1960-2010
%
43Note: Based on adults ages 18 and older. Percents may not total 100% due to rounding.Source: Pew Research Center’s Social and Demographic Trends analysis of Decennial Census (1960-2000) and American Community Survey data (2008, 2010), IPUMS.
Median Age at First Marriage, 1960-2011
44Source: Pew Research Center’s Social and Demographic Trends analysis of Current Population Survey, March and Annual Social and Economic Supplements.
Trend in Party Identification: 1939-2012
Democrat
Republican
41
35
38
32
45Source: 1929-1989 yearly averages from the Gallup Organization interactive website. 1990-2012 yearly totals from Times Mirror/Pew Research Center aggregate files. Based on general public. Independent data not available for 1951-1956.
Independent
35
1824
All adultsLikely voters
Non-voters
Party ID % % %
Partisan Profile of Nonvoters
46Source: Pew Research Center poll conducted October 24-28, 2012. Nonvoters include all unregistered adults as well as registered voters who do not meet the criteria for likely voters used in Pew Research Center polls.
Republican 28 34 17
Democrat 33 35 29
Independent 33 27 44
Rise and Decline of League Bowling
47Source: Robert D. Putnam, Bowling Alone: The Collapse and Revival of American Community, 2000.
Confidence in Institutions, 1973-2011
% saying they have a great deal or quite a lot of confidence
48
Question wording: “Now I am going to read you a list of institutions in American society. Please tell me how much confidence you, yourself, have in each one – a great deal, quite a lot, some, or very little?”
Note: Data not available for Congress in 1987.Source: Gallup New Service Survey, conducted June 9-12, 2011. Based telephone interviews of a national sample of 1,020 adults.
Confidence in the Church/Organized Religion
% saying they have a great deal or quite a lot of confidence
49Question wording: “Now I am going to read you a list of institutions in American society. Please tell me how much confidence you, yourself, have in each one – a great deal, quite a lot, some, or very little?”Source: Gallup New Service Survey, conducted June 7-10, 2012. Based telephone interviews of a national sample of 1,004 adults.
Those who are active in religious
groups
Those who aren’t active in such
groups
Sports or recreation leagues 35% 17%
Charitable or volunteer organizations 34 15
Professional or trade associations 29 14
Political parties or organizations
Other Organizations to Which Religiously Active Americans Belong
Political parties or organizations 22 10
Alumni associations 20 10
Performance arts groups 19 5
Literary, discussion, or study groups 18 6
Veterans organizations 11 4
Sports fantasy leagues 8 6
Farm organizations 7 2
50Source: Pew Internet & American Life Project, 2011 The civic and community engagement of religiously active Americans, p. 14-15.
Importance of Shared Community
49
61
34
29
16
8
Very important Somewhat important Not too/Not at all important
U.S. general public
Black Protestant
% saying belonging to a community of people who share your values and beliefs is…
51Source: Pew Research Center survey, June 28-July 9, 2012. Q22 Those who did not give an answer are not shown. Whites and blacks include only those who are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race.
61
61
59
43
40
28
29
27
31
41
43
40
8
11
9
15
16
31
Black Protestant
Hispanic Catholic
White evangelical
White Catholic
White mainline
Unaffiliated
