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© OECD/IEA 2010
ISES, Rehovot, 6 October 2010
The CSP Roadmap of the IEACédric PhilibertRenewable Energy DivisionInternational Energy Agency
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ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
© OECD/IEA - 2010
OECD and non-OECD primary energy demand in the Baseline scenario
Primary energy demand in non-OECD countries is projected to increase much faster than in OECD countries in the Baseline scenario.
5 000
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2007 Baseline 2015 Baseline 2030 Baseline 2050
Mto
e
Non-OECD OECD
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ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
© OECD/IEA - 2010
Key technologies for reducing global CO2 emissions
A wide range of technologies will be necessary to reduce energy-related CO2 emissions.
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Gt C
O2
CCS 19%
Renewables 17%
Nuclear 6%
Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 5%
End-use fuel switching 15%
End-use fuel and electricity efficiency 38%
BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt
Baseline emissions 57 Gt
WEO 2009 450 ppmcase ETP2010 analysis
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ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
© OECD/IEA - 2010
The primary role of renewables in the BLUE scenarios
Renewables provide from almost half to three quarters of the global electricity mix in 2050
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2007 Baseline 2050 BLUE Map 2050
BLUE High Nuclear 2050
BLUE High Ren 2050
PW
hOther
Solar
Wind
Biomass+CCS
Biomass and waste
Hydro
Nuclear
Natural gas+CCS
Natural gas
Oil
Coal+CCS
Coal
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ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
© OECD/IEA - 2010
Growth of renewable power generation in the BLUE Map
Electricity generation from RE grows strongly. Wind, hydropower and solar provide the bulk of it.
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ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
© OECD/IEA - 2010
RE generation in 2050 for keycountries/regions
The mix varies according to resources
© OECD/IEA 2010
© O
EC
D/I
EA
20
09
At the request of G8 Heads of State/Government
Based on scenario to halve CO2 emissions by 2050
Create technical, policy, legal, financial, and public acceptance milestones and priority near-term actions
Roadmaps published:
CCS, electric vehicles, wind, cement sector, solar PV, concentrating solar power, nuclear power
Forthcoming roadmaps : smart grids, biofuels, EE buildings , geothermal energy, bioenergy for heat and power, solar heating and cooling…
How do we get there from here? Energy Technology Roadmaps
© OECD/IEA 2010
Wind roadmap targets
Source: IEA, Wind Energy Roadmap (forthcoming).
Regional wind electricity production to 2050 (TWh)
Wind has the potential to provide 12% of global electricity production in 2050
© OECD/IEA 2010
• Launched by IEA’s Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka in Valencia, 11 May 2010 (MSP Conf.)
• PV and CSP complementary to each other
• Solar electricity could represent up to 20% to 25% of global electricity production by 2050
• Roughly half CSP, half PV
• Producing up to 9000 TWh per year
• Saving almost 6 billion tonnes CO2 per year
• This decade crucial for effective policies to enable the development of solar electricity
• Need to plan and invest in grid infrastructure
PV & CSP technology roadmaps
© OECD/IEA 2010
PV & CSP complementarities
PV takes all light
PV almost everywhere
Mostly at end-users’
Variable
Peak & mid-peak
Grid parity (retail prices) by 2020
Smart grids for integration
CSP takes direct light
CSP semi-arid countries
Mostly for utilities
Firm, dispatchable backup
Peak to base-load storage
Competitive peak power by 2020
HVDC lines for transport
}{
Firm & flexible CSP capacities can help integrate more PV
© OECD/IEA 2010
Solar PV Vision
PV can provide 5% of global electricity generation in 2030, 11% in 2050
© OECD/IEA 2010
© OECD/IEA 2010
© OECD/IEA 2010
Strengths and weaknesses
Strengths and weaknesses
© OECD/IEA 2010
© OECD/IEA 2010
CSP costs and global output
Competition for peak and mid-peak loads
Competition for base load
© OECD/IEA 2010
Ouarzazate
Ain Béni Mathar
Foum Al Oued
Boujdour
Sabkhat Tah
SWERA:NASA NREL
How accurate are our DNI Data?
The case of Morocco
© OECD/IEA 2010
How accurate… (2)
Source: Solar Paces
The best regions for CSP
Favorable for Concentrated Solar Power (CSP)
Worth considering for CSP
Source: Pharabod & Philibert, 1991
© OECD/IEA 2010
The CSP Roadmap: 2050
Consumption
Production
A detailed regional assessment with HVDC lines
© OECD/IEA 2010
Advantages of North African exports to EU
For the EU:
Firm, dispatchable solar
electricity
Facilitates integrating more wind
and PV
Cost competitive
Helps achieve RE targets by 2020
For North Africa:
Abundant resources for local
needs and exports
Stable revenues through
exports of RE power
Revenues to finance domestic
power investments
Ensuring stability and security of supply for both sides
© OECD/IEA 2010
Intermediate load
Delayed intermediate load
Uses of storage
© OECD/IEA 2010
Base load
Extreme
peak load
Uses of storage
© OECD/IEA 2010
Concentrating solar fuels
© OECD/IEA 2010
Solar Policy Recommendations
1. Implement solar-specific incentives Declining over time (for new plants) to take benefit of cost reductions
2. Markets to reward firm capacities by CSP plants
3. Avoid arbitrary limits on plant size and hybridisation But reward only solar electricity share from hybrid plants
4. Ensure funding with long term certainty for public and private RD&D for solar electricity
5. Streamline permitting procedures for plants and access lines
6. Negotiate power purchase agreements between exporting and importing countries
© OECD/IEA 2010
Forthcoming
World Energy Outlook
A full section devotedto Renewable energies
9 November 2010
Other RE roadmaps
Grid Integration of Variable Renewables
New year
Deploying Renewables
Worldwide Prospects and Challenges
March
Solar Publication
PV, CSP, SHC
June/July
