1

EUROCLIMA Bioenergy WorkshopSantiago de Chile, 12 – 14 March 2013

Josef Spitzer – IEA Bioenergybased on presentations by

Anselm Eisentraut (IEA Secretariat)

International Energy Agency (IEA) Biofuels & Bioenergy

Technology Roadmaps

2

Content

• IEA Technology Roadmaps• Goal and scope• Bioenergy Roadmaps

• IEA Bioenergy: International bioenergy RD&D cooperation

3

Content

• IEA Technology Roadmaps• Goal and scope• Bioenergy related

• IEA Bioenergy: International bioenergy RD&D cooperation

IEA Technology Roadmaps• Highlight pathway(s) to reach large scale use of low-carbon technologies,

consistent with Energy Technology Perspectives publication• Focus on the key steps over the next 5-10 years, as well as long-term milestones,

including:

n Identify barriers and obstacles and how to overcome thesen Identify key conversion pathwaysn Key RD&D gaps and how to fill them while ensuring

sustainabilityn Identify market requirements and policy needsn Define international collaboration needs

• Developed under consultation of industry, governmental and research institutions as well as NGOs

For more information: www.iea.org/roadmaps

IEA Technology Roadmaps• Bioenergy for Heat and Power• Biofuels for Transport• Carbon Capture and Storage• Carbon Capture and Storage

in Industrial Applications• Cement• Concentrating Solar Power• Electric and Plug-in Hybrid

Vehicles• Energy-efficient Buildings:

Heating and Cooling Equipment• Fuel Economy of Road Vehicles

• Geothermal Heat and Power• High-Efficiency, Low-Emissions

Coal-Fired Power Generation• Hydropower• Low-Carbon Technology for

the Indian Cement Industry• Nuclear Energy• Solar Photovoltaic Energy• Smart Grids• Solar Heating and Cooling• Wind Energy

IEA Technology Roadmaps• Bioenergy for Heat and Power• Biofuels for Transport• Carbon Capture and Storage• Carbon Capture and Storage

in Industrial Applications• Cement• Concentrating Solar Power• Electric and Plug-in Hybrid

Vehicles• Energy-efficient Buildings:

Heating and Cooling Equipment• Fuel Economy of Road Vehicles

• Geothermal Heat and Power• High-Efficiency, Low-Emissions

Coal-Fired Power Generation• Hydropower• Low-Carbon Technology for

the Indian Cement Industry• Nuclear Energy• Solar Photovoltaic Energy• Smart Grids• Solar Heating and Cooling• Wind Energy

Key role of bioenergy in a low-carbon future

n Reaching the 2DS will require 42 Gt CO2 annual emissions reduction by 2050 through CO2-price and strong support policies

n Biomass is the only renewable energy source that can make a contribution in all sectors, providing around 10% of total CO2 emissions reduction

Source: Energy Technology Perspectives 2012

6°C Scenario emissions: 58 Gt ------------>

2°C Scenario emissions: 16 Gt ------------>

Bioenergy technologies

Emissions reduction in 2050

Bioenergy power 1.0 Gt CO2-eq

Bio-power + CCS 0.3 Gt CO2-eq

Bioenergy heat (industry)

0.5 Gt CO2-eq

Bioenergy heat (buildings)

0.1 Gt CO2-eq

Biofuels 2.1 Gt CO2-eq

Total 4.1 Gt CO2-eq

© OECD/IEA 2011

Anselm EisentrautBioenergy Analyst

2011

IEA Biofuel Roadmap: Vision

n Global biofuel supply grows from 2.5 EJ today to 32 EJ in 2050 – Demand increases in all regionsn Biofuels share in total transport fuel increases from 2% today, to 27% in 2050n Diesel/kerosene-type biofuels become particularly important to decarbonise heavy transport modes

n Large-scale deployment of advanced biofuels will be key to meet the roadmap targets

n Trade will be needed to balance supply and demand for feedstocks and biofuels

Fina

l ene

rgy

(EJ)

Advanced Biofuel Production Capacity

n Currently announced advanced biofuel projects would be sufficient to meet roadmap vision until 2015

n Beyond 2015, considerably more new projects will be needed, and even more so after 2020

Note: A load factor of 70% is assumed for fully operational plants. Actual production volumes may be well below nameplate capacity within the first years of production.

Land Requirements

n Land required to produce biofuels increases from 30 Mha today to 100 Mha in 2050, in addition to 1 billion tons of residues

n Sustainable land expansion will be challenging given increasing demand for food and biomaterial

à Land-use management is needed (for all agricultural. and forestry land)!

Pressure on agricultural land can be

limited and risk of ILUC can be mitigated

through:

n Productivity improvements

n Efficient use of co-products (biorefinery concept)

n Use of residues and wastes

n Use of pasture/ unused land

n Potential for wood biomass

n Biomass cascading

n Land-use zoning and sustainable land-use management schemes

Note: This is gross land demand, excluding land-use reduction potential of co-products

Biofuel Production Costs 2010-50

Most conventional biofuels still have some potential for cost improvements

Production costs shown as untaxed retail price

© OECD/IEA 2011

Anselm EisentrautBioenergy Analyst

2012

Total Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Source

n Bioenergy accounts for 24% of primary energy supply by 2050 in the 2°C Scenario

n In the 2DS 250-400 Mha of land, i.e. 5-8% of total agricultural land today,will be needed in 2050

Source: Energy Technology

Perspectives 2012

Bioenergy consumption in buildings declines

• Traditional biomass use is replaced with more efficient cook stoves, and alternative fuels

• Buildings becoming more energy-efficient

Industry set to triple consumption of bioenergy

• Bioenergy is low-carbon alternative for coke and coal for high temperature heat production

Bioenergy – a competitive heat source in many circumstances

World bioenergy electricity supply to grow more then ten-fold

Bioenergy Share in total electricity generation increases from 1.5% today, to 7.5% in 2050

Bioenergy electricity generation costs are strongly scale-dependend

Biomass supply prospects -uncertainties remain

• Biomass demand for heat and power reaches 5-7 billion tons in 2050• Intermediate targets should be adopted to enhance international biomass

trade, and assess costs and impact on sustainability

Source: Adapted from IPCC (2011), and supplemented with IEA data

Source: Based on IPCC SRREN, 20112050 (2°C)

2011

Total World Energy Demand

Key Policy Actionsn Ambitious policy framework:

n Create a long-term policy framework for bioenergy, taking into consideration specifics of transport fuels, electricity and heat markets

n Innovation and Deployment:n Provide sustained funding for advanced bioenergy RD&D and commercial deployment.n Support research efforts on land availability mapping and biomass potential analysis.

n Sustainability:n Implement internationally agreed sustainability criteria for bioenergyn Link economic incentives to sustainability performance of biofuels.n Set medium-term targets for sustainable biomass supply to help establish supply

chains; incentivize the use of wastes and residues

n International Collaboration:n Engage in international collaboration on capacity building and technology transfern Introduce technical standards for biomass feedstock to promote international traden Promote the alignment of biofuel and other related policies (agriculture, forestry, rural

development)

22

Content

• IEA Technology Roadmaps• Goal and scope• Bioenergy related

• IEA Bioenergy: International bioenergy RD&D cooperation

23

IEA Bioenergy is an international collaboration set up in 1978 by the International Energy Agency (IEA) as one of more than 40 “Implementing Agreements”within IEA’s Energy Technology Network

24

Strategic Plan

Vision: To achieve a substantial bioenergy contribution to future global energy supplies by accelerating the production and use of environmentally sound, socially accepted and cost-competitive bioenergy on a sustainable basis, thus providing increased security of supply whilst reducinggreenhouse gas emissions from energy use.

25

Bioenergy• already plays a major role supplying ~10% of world

primary energy supplies

Fuel Shares in World Total Primary Energy Supply 2005

20%

26%10%2%0%0%6%

36%

Natural GasCoalBioenergyHydroOther RenewablesNon renewable wasteNuclearOil

IEA Renewables Information 2007

26

• has significant scope to make a greater contribution to secure and sustainable energy provision

Bioenergy

27

• involves a range of feedstocks and technology options that can produce heat, power and liquid fuels

Bioenergy

28

Agreement ActivitiesExecutive Committee• Bi-annual ExCo meetings, management of the IA • Topical Workshops• Annual report, newsletters, website• Strategic Position Papers

Tasks• Coordination of national RD&D programmes,

information exchange and joint projects• Task meetings, study tours and workshops• Publications, reports, newsletters, websites• Networking with industrial and other stakeholders

29

24 Contracting Parties• Australia• Austria• Belgium• Brazil• Canada• Croatia• Denmark• European Commission• Finland• France• Germany• Ireland

• Italy• Japan• Korea• Netherlands• New Zealand• Norway• South Africa• Sweden• Switzerland• Turkey• United Kingdom• United States

30

12 Task in three areas• Feedstock

Forest and agricultural products, MSW and recovered fuels

• ConversionCombustion, gasification, pyrolysis, anaerobic digestion, fermentation, biorefineries

• Integrating Research IssuesGHG balances, socioeconomic drivers, international trade, systems analysis

31

Workshops- held in conjunction with Executive Committee Meetings…..

• Availability of biomass resources

• The biorefinery concept

• Biofuels for transport - part of a sustainable future

• Bioenergy – the impact of indirect land use change

• Algae the future for bioenergy?

• Developing sustainable trade in bioenergy

• Environmental Sustainability of Biomass

32

Strategic Position Papers

• Sustainable Production of Woody Biomass for Energy

• Municipal Solid Waste and Its Role in Sustainability

• Benefits of Bioenergy

• Potential Contribution of Bioenergy to Future World Energy Needs

• Using a Lifecycle Assessment Approach to Estimate the Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Bioenergy

33

Annual Reports and Newsletters• Annual Report: Report from the

Executive Committee, progress reports on each Task, feature article and information on budgets and participation

• IEA Bioenergy News: Report on ExCo meeting and workshop, editorial from a Member Country, news from the Tasks recent publications and upcoming events

www.ieabioenergy.com

34

Thanks to:• The co-authors of the IEA Technology Roadmaps: Anselm

Eisentraut, Adam Brown

• Colleagues from IEA Bioenergywww.ieabioenergy.com

• Energy Technology Perspectives 2012www.iea.org/etp

• IEA Technology Roadmapswww.iea.org/roadmaps

Acknowledgements