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The Cook Political Report’s
2014 Election Road Map
Presented by: David Wasserman, U.S. House Editor
Valve Manufacturers Association of America
September 20, 2014
Email: [email protected]
Web: http://www.cookpolitical.com Twitter: @Redistrict
The Whole Foods/Cracker Barrel Indicator
In 2008, Obama won 80% of counties with a Whole
Foods, just 36% of counties with a Cracker Barrel
Lebanon, TN →
← Austin, TX
The Great Organic/Nostalgic Sort
Election
Year
Election Winner
Whole Foods
Counties
Cracker Barrel
Counties Culture
Gap
1992
Clinton (D) 60% 40% 20%
1996
Clinton (D) 66% 41% 25%
2000
Bush (R) 41% 73% 32%
2004
Bush (R) 38% 79% 41%
2008
Obama (D) 80% 36% 44%
Election 2012? Even More Polarized
Election
Year
Election Winner
Whole Foods
Counties
Cracker Barrel
Counties
Culture
Gap
2012 Obama (D) 77% 29% 48%
Whole Foods/Cracker Barrel
gap was widest ever
Romney’s rarely lived more
than 4.5 mi. from Whole Foods
Higher Education May Be the “Great Equalizer,”
But It’s Now Also the Great Polarizer
The Diploma Belt:
In 1988, Michael Dukakis won 42 of the top 100 most educated counties
and 37 of the bottom 100 least educated counties in America.
In 2012, Barack Obama won 74 of the top 100 most educated counties
and 18 of the bottom 100 least educated counties in America.
Minority Rule: In 2012, Pennsylvania’s Democratic candidates for House won
83,468 more votes than Republicans, but won just 5 of 18 seats (28%)!
Goal Posts Moved: Nationally, Democrats would need to win 6.8% (!) more
votes than House Republicans to win the barest possible House majority.
3) Gerrymandering: It’s Easier than Ever
for Politicians to Choose their Voters
Actual 2012 Results – by County
Just 3 counties (Broward, FL; Cuyahoga, OH, Philadelphia, PA) reelected Obama
Obama won 62% of all Electoral College votes, but just 48% of all Congressional
districts (209 of 435) and just 22% of all counties (690 out of 3,114)
The Old “Default” Used to Be…
GOP White House & Dem Congress
Republicans Democrats - Controlled the White House
for 28 of 40 years between
1968 & 2008
- Controlled the House for
28 of the 40 years between
1968 & 2008
Democrats Republicans - Are Urban, More Minority, Younger - Are Rural, Whiter, Older
- Sufficient to Win Statewide Elections - Sufficient to Win Most Districts
- Turn Out ↑ in Presidential Elections - Turn Out ↑ in Midterm Elections
Democrats: Natural
advantage in statewide races
(President & maybe Senate)
Republicans: Coalition is
tailor-made to win the
majority of House districts
Today’s Divided Government: A
Reversal, Thanks to Geography
But, Guess What? It May Not Matter
2014 is quickly shaping up to be a Republican wave, with
substantial GOP gains possible in both the House & Senate
Presidential “Chickens Coming Home to Roost”
Bush lost 30 House/6 Senate seats in 2006. Obama lost 63
House/6 Senate seats in 2010. What about 2014?
Foreign Policy: Syria/Russia/Iraq Leaving Obama
with No Good Options
Foreign Policy: Once Obama’s strong suit, now it’s
hurting voters’ opinion of administration’s competence
2) GOP’s Built-In Turnout Advantage:
The Boom & Bust Generation Gap
Democrats heavily reliant on big margins from voters 18-29,
but GOP-leaning seniors vote more in midterm elections
The Senate: A Jump Ball
Today: 55 Democrats (including 2 Independents
caucusing with Democrats), 45 Republicans
Cook Outlook: GOP gain of 4-8 seats. Senate control
in 2015 is a Toss Up.
Retirements in MT (Walsh), SD (Johnson), WV (Rockefeller)
Democrats Must Defend 7 (!) Seats in
Deeply Red Romney States:
Incumbents: Begich (AK), Pryor (AR), Landrieu (LA), Hagan (NC)
Razorback Rumble: Arkansas Senate
Will Tom Cotton come to regret his vote against the
Farm Bill? That’s when his momentum slowed…
Bayou Brawl: Louisiana Senate
Fasten your seat belts: this thing’s likely to go to a
December runoff
Carolina Clash: Hagan vs. Tillis
Could Libertarian pizza deliveryman
Sean Haugh spoil Republicans’
chances of taking over the Senate?
Retirements in IA (Harkin), MI (Levin)
…Not to Mention 5 More Potentially
Vulnerable Seats in Obama States:
Incumbents: Udall (CO), Franken (MN), Shaheen (NH)
Why is Senate Control So Important?
Not-So-Secret Mission: Democrats launching 10-state, $60 million
“Bannock Street Project” with 4,000 field staff to hold the Senate
Four Supreme Court justices
over age of 75 (Scalia,
Kennedy, Breyer, Ginsburg)
Thanks to Reid’s “Nuclear
Option,” just 51 Senators needed
to confirm executive nominees
Keep in Mind: If Republicans Win Senate in
2014, They Could Easily Lose it in 2016
In 2016, 23 Republican seats up for election, just
10 Democratic seats. (Why? Thank 2010)
2014 Part II: The House
Today: 234 Republicans, 201 Democrats (Democrats
need +17 seats to win control)
Cook Outlook: GOP Gain of 2-12 seats
Remember: Don’t Threaten to Throw
Reporters Off Balconies
Rep. Michael Grimm (R-NY): On verge of indictment
House: Not Much Partisan Change, But
Generational Change in 2015?
Boehner: Top allies (Tom Latham, Frank Wolf, Mike Rogers, Dave Camp)
retiring. Cantor out, but would Kevin McCarthy waltz in?
Pelosi: Top allies (George Miller, Henry Waxman) retiring. But she can’t
stand the idea of Steny Hoyer taking over as Democratic Leader.
2014, Part III: Governors
Today: 29 Republicans, 21 Democrats (Republicans
have 22 governorships to defend, Democrats 14)
Cook Outlook: Democratic Gain of 1-2 seats
Vulnerable Republican Governorships
Scott (FL), Brownback (KS), LePage (ME), Snyder (MI),
Corbett (PA), Walker (WI)
Vulnerable Democratic Governorships
Vulnerable: Malloy (CT), Abercrombie (HI), Quinn (IL)
Open seat in Arkansas (Beebe)
1) Republicans Have a Math Problem
1980: Ronald Reagan 2012: Mitt Romney
56% of the White Vote 59% of the White Vote
Won by 10% Lost by 4%
Won 489 Electoral Votes Won 202 Electoral Votes
Targeting Gap: Obama’s ad buying department was 10 times (!) Romney’s
Romney Lagged Behind: “We were building the plane as it was taking
off” – Alex Lundry, Romney chief data strategist
2) Republicans Have an Infrastructure Problem
Obama Field
Offices (10/18)
Romney Field
Offices (10/18)
618 251
But, if 2016 is a “Change” Election, Democrats
Could Have an Even Bigger Problem
Age at Potential 2017 Inauguration…
Leading Democrats:
Leading Republicans:
69 74
54 49 53 45
Total Makeover: Only a New Nominee in 2016
Can Resurrect the GOP Nationally:
The “Can Wins”
(Christie, Bush, Rubio,
Portman)
The “Tougher Sells”
(Cruz, Paul, Perry,
Carson)
The “Maybes”
(Walker, Kasich,
Pence, Huckabee?)
Meanwhile, on Democratic Side, Will She or
Won’t She?
For all of Republicans’ current problems, remember: it’s Democrats
may be lacking in “new blood” come 2016.
If not Hillary or Joe Biden, who? Cuomo, O’Malley, Warner,
Sanders, Gillibrand, Klobuchar, Warren, Schweitzer?
2012 Lesson: Be Careful When You Refer to
“47% of Americans”…
Final Obama Total Final Romney Total
65,899,557
(51.06%)
60,931,959
(47.21%)
…You might just end up with them