A RoAd MAp to SucceSS on...

Summer 2015

Teach • Connect • Help

James Cristbrook

Mike Bullis

Paul FennerDr. William Vasileff

Cassie Sobelton Michael Dzialo

Christine Lynn

• If you’ve saved a nice nest egg, make sure you are not blindsided by the “Tax Torpedo”, warns Michael S. Bullis, Financial Advisor at Raymond James. He says you need to think about all of the 401(k) and IRA tax-deferred money you’ve accumulated that will have to start being withdrawn – and taxed – at age 70 1/2 , potentially triggering higher taxation of your social security benefits.

• The word downsizing your life is often used when discussing Senior Real Estate options. However, Christine Lynn, Broker at Cranbrook Realtors points out the many housing options available to seniors today. Whether it's downsizing to a condo, moving to a senior living community, upsizing to a dream home or finding the perfect snowbird home, Christine explains what seniors want.

• Birmingham’s own Dr. William Vasileff, Birmingham Institute of Plastic Surgery, discusses the ins and outs of plastic surgery. Plastic surgery can be very simple or something as serious as elective surgery. His article covers points, and how important it is to be in the hands of a plastic surgeon with the correct board certifications.

• Paul Fenner, of TAMMA Capital has a very interesting article on the success equation in your life. Are you constantly thinking about improving your results? Do you keep telling yourself that something is important because that’s the way it’s always been done? These excuses are what Paul wants you to overcome in both your business and personal lives.

These thoughtful and important articles will provide you with lots of information and may even lead to more questions than answers. Please feel free to contact any of the experts listed above to have your questions answered. Thank you for reading the TCH Summer Supplement.

ARTICLE OVERVIEWS

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TABLE OF CONTENTS“A Road Map to Success on…”

Taking Ownership of Your Health

Better Results for Exceptional Client Service

Not Your Father’s Bond Market

Maximizing Your Social Security Benefits

Getting Savvy about the Senior Real Estate Market

Is it Time for Plastic Surgery?

The Success Equation

The Community House has a great group of experts who have put together important articles for the community. Please take a moment to read a short description of each author below:

• How to live a healthy lifestyle is critical to all of our daily lives - Cassie Sobelton, Wellness Expert, Speaker and Author, talks about the negative health consequences of stress and how to combat stress in your daily life. Giving your brain a chance to rest is critically important for the health of your mind, body and soul.

• Always looking to entertain while informing the public at The Community House, James Cristbrook, Co-Founder of Shain Park, REALTORS, writes about exceptional client service with a short tale about the Seven Dwarfs and Snow White. James is not only one of the area’s top Realtors, but an expert on storytelling.

• Michael Dzialo, President and Chief Investment Officer of Managed Asset Portfolios, discusses the relationship between interest rates and the bond market. With interest rates at an all-time low and the stock market at record highs, Michael discusses the pros and cons of being in the bond market today.

Taking Ownership of Your HealthLiving in a nation that spends over 85 percent of health care dollars on the treatment of chronic disease, it’s easy to correlate unhealthy lifestyles with economic burden. With chronic disease steadily on the rise with no end in sight and a health care industry that’s future is questionable, now more than ever, we have to take ownership of our health. Furthermore, we should consider how to teach our children to reverse the trend we have started.

It can be confusing and overwhelming to know where to begin. With a food supply that is continuously introducing chemicals, additives and preservatives never before seen in humans’ diets, plus a society that does not promote physical activity, an ever-increasing hourly workday, and little time or resources to reduce stress, staying ahead of chronic disease seems impossible.

Even with all those factors working against us, there has been a recent surge of health and wellness awareness. As a society, we are slowly learning that eating right, maintaining a healthy weight and exercising is essential to living a long, healthy life. We are making smarter food choices, drinking more water and hitting the gym – but often, we still feel something is missing. Even with all these efforts, many of us still get sick, stressed out and have strained relationships with loved ones.

Most health care professionals attribute a staggering 85 percent of disease to stress. Why, then, are we not taught emotional balance and stress reduction in school or the medical community, when both are being revealed as the most important factors to our health and happiness? Might the rise in chronic disease be due to an imbalance in connection to our electronic devices versus our inner essence? Could it be possible that an unsettled mind and spirit is actually the contributing factor to physical illnesses?

True wellness is more than exercising and eating your vegetables. It’s about an authentically healthy mind, body and spirit. When wellness is achieved, you will be your best person possible; in short, you’ll become a better partner, friend, family member and employee. When we consider the mind, body and spirit as a tripod that supports our health, it’s easier to understand actions necessary to maintain wellness. Without attending to all three, you will surely lose your balance.

Undoubtedly you’ve heard that meditation is an excellent stress reduction tool. The science behind it is strong. Gone are the days of meditation being solely a religious or spiritual practice. Numerous studies from highly credible institutions tout the positive effects of a regular meditation practice on the brain. But, in order for it to be truly effective, it must be both of those things: an established and regular practice. Meditating occasionally or only after stressful situations will not have the same effect as someone who incorporates meditation into his daily life.

You must learn an established technique and practice it consistently. I strongly recommend a mantra-based technique; however, there are numerous to choose from. Like most things in life, finding a teacher or coach is essential to your success. Sitting down on your own and trying to quiet your thoughts without a proven technique is difficult and could lead to failure. Not sure where to start? Keep your eyes open for meditation classes in your community, at local yoga studios or ask those you trust who have an established practice. You will be amazed at how prevalent it is all around you when you look for it.

If meditation isn’t your thing, that’s OK. There are many other ways to reduce stress and bring yourself back to balance. A short disconnection from your cell phone, email and social media is a wonderful start. Taking a walk in the park, reading a book or just sitting silently with a cup of tea can do wonders for the mind and soul. The goal is to give your brain time to process the constant stream of incoming information, so it doesn’t overload, which can lead to stress. Benjamin Franklin’s axiom that “an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure” is truer now than ever. We would all be wise to heed his warning.

Cassie SobeltonCEO, SynBellaWellness Expert, Speaker and Author248.291.6880contact@cassiesobelton.comwww.CassieSobelton.com

– as if they were a medical emergency and you were the doctor saving a life. True, you haven’t taken the Hippocratic Oath, but our clients expect it and we strive to exceed that expectation! You can, too!

5. Don’t be Grumpy!Always display appropriate body language at all times. Everything about you is a projection of how you feel inside. Is your happiness genuine or only turned on when someone is looking? Trust me, someone is always looking! In my business, our clients take note of everything about us. The car we drive, the clothes we wear, the “pep in our step”, our presentation skills, our level of confidence…the list goes on! Ask yourself, do you lead with a positive outlook? Grumpy people only attract grumpy people and no one wants that!

6. Be like Sleepy!Create dreams and preserve a magical experience. In real estate we are most likely helping our clients buy or sell the most expensive item of their lives. It is also the most emotional purchase of their life! It is – no matter the price – their Dream Home. What can be more gratifying than making dreams come true?

7. Don’t be Dopey!Thank every client for trusting you with their needs. We live in a highly competitive world these days with a multitude of choices. As the internet continues to expand so do options for our buyers and sellers in real estate. We want all of our clients to know that we are truly grateful from the bottom of our hearts for choosing us to serve their needs.

Who would think that the Seven Dwarfs could set a road map for providing great client service? At Shain Park, REALTORS we believe they have and prove it every day when off to work we go!

James CristbrookShain Park, REALTORS248.417.7681James@ShainPark.com www.shainpark.com

Better Results for Exceptional Client ServiceI had the great privilege of performing with Disney On Ice and the experiencing the strong influence of The Walt Disney Company as my first career out of school. I have even found some special guidance from the Seven Dwarfs of Snow White fame! It might sound silly to you but if you really think about it, the Seven Dwarfs can teach us some valuable lessons.

Doc, Grumpy, Happy, Sleepy, Bashful, Sneezy, Dopey – that’s the traditional order in which you can expect to see this mythical group of hard working men. I’m going to take these characters a bit out of order and share with you how we envision exceptional client service at Shain Park, REALTORS.

1. Be Happy!Make eye contact and smile. Think about it, two very simple actions that positively impact ones attitude and experience. In these days of texting, tweeting, facebooking – we spend more time looking down and not enough looking ahead. People are more likely to trust you when you make direct eye contact. And smile! Just know when it is appropriate to share and when you need to simply look someone in the eye and smile!

2. Be like Sneezy!Greet and welcome everyone you meet. Spread the spirit of hospitality – it’s contagious! For us at Shain Park, REALTORS, this is crucial to our success. We put this attribute into practice at open houses and special events and especially when friends, colleagues, clients and potential new clients visit us at our offices in Birmingham. We love our very visible location and welcome all who come through our doors!

3. Don’t be Bashful!Don’t miss out on opportunities to say Hi…Seek out people and make positive contact. I could tell you a hundred stories where my life was enhanced and opportunity was given simply by offering a hand, helping a stranger, giving directions, sharing a common experience or just saying hello! Step outside of your comfort zone and give someone a chance to know you. You’ll love the results!

4. Be like Doc!Provide immediate and thorough service always. Return emails, phone calls, text messages–whatever

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The historic Community House delivers with elegant surroundings, an array of culinary options, a variety of room sizes and an experienced staff to help make your wedding dreams come true.

Isn’t

LOVE grand?

Photo: Robert Hall Photography

Your wedding should be grand too, no matter how you define it.

www.tchserves.org | 248-644-5832 | weddings@tchserves.org

The Community House, 380 South Bates Street, Birmingham, MI 48009

Photo: Carroll DeWeese

Generations of investors have been taught to equate bonds with safety. However; with interest rates at historic lows around the world, it may no longer be prudent to associate bonds with safety. Today, it is a challenge for investors to earn more than a fraction of a percent without taking some form of risk. In many foreign countries, it is even worse, with rates actually turning negative. Countries such as Germany, Switzerland, Finland, and Japan have two year government bonds with negative yields. This defies all conventional logic and concepts of finance.

More so now than ever, it is important for investors to be discriminatory when reviewing their bond portfolios. Keeping in mind that not all bonds are created equal, there are many factors that can impact bond values, including credit ratings, call features, and interest rates, to name just a few.

There is an inverse relationship between interest rates and bonds meaning as interest rates decline, bond prices rise; and conversely, as interest rates rise, bond prices decline. With interest rates near historic lows, it is difficult to imagine a scenario where rates go much lower. A scenario of rising rates can be dangerous for bondholders as bonds with longer-dated maturities have more sensitivity to changes in interest rates than shorter dated bonds.

The risk of a bond being impacted by higher interest rates is known as interest rate risk. Investors can quantify the interest rate risk of a given bond (or bond portfolio) by looking at its duration. Duration is a mathematical equation that shows how a change in interest rates would impact the price of a bond. As an example, a 30-year bond would likely have a duration greater than 15. This means if rates rise by one percent, the value of the bond will decline by more than 15%. Whereas a bond with a maturity of only two years would likely have a duration of less than two. If you do not know the duration of your bonds, we recommend you ask your financial advisor.

Many in the media claim that the banks were bailed out on the backs of taxpayers. We respectfully disagree. Banks were bailed out on the backs of savers - individuals that worked hard, were financially prudent, and built their nest eggs. Many of these savers assumed they could always achieve 5–6% returns without risk in safe products such as short-term U.S. Treasuries, Certificates of Deposit

(CDs), or even money market accounts. The fact is 5–6% returns cannot be achieved today without assuming risk. Across the board, investors are being forced to assume incrementally more risk just to earn returns that keep ahead of inflation. Many traditional savers, who only would buy CDs are disenchanted with today’s sub 1% interest rates, and as such are buying corporate bonds or even venturing into the high-yield (below investment grade) space to seek yield. Others are extending maturities. Our fear is that many of these investors do not understand the risks associated with their holdings and may be in for a shock when interest rates begin to move higher.

While it is impossible for anyone to know specifically when rates will begin to move higher, it is reasonable to assume that the best days for bonds are behind us. The financial collapse of 2008 and subsequent anemic economic recovery forced the Federal Reserve to push interest rates to historically low levels in an attempt to boost the ailing banking sector and economy. While the economy is far from robust, it has improved, which means rates may start to move higher.

In closing we leave you with this thought. Someone once asked Wayne Gretzky why he was a successful hockey player. He responded: “I skate to where the puck is going to be and not where it is.” That same thought process is applicable for investing. The best time to think about and prepare for higher interests is while they are low.

Michael S. DzialoPresident and Chief Investment OfficerManaged Asset Portfolios, LLC248.601.6677michael@map-email.comwww.managedassetportfolios.com

Not Your Father’s Bond Market

Social Security was created in 1935 to help Americans supplement their retirement income. On average Social Security accounts for about 40% of income in retirement. While almost everyone is familiar with the idea of Social Security, it is a complex system and can often cause confusion when selecting how to apply for your benefits to maximize your personal benefits.

Four Costly Mistakes about Social Security#1 Underestimating the real value of Social Security.

As an important component of your total retirement income social security should not be ignored by you or your financial advisor. As the income guarantees provided by private employer pension plans disappear, Social Security guarantees become even more critical.

#2 Rushing to collect, then regretting the reduced benefits for the rest of your life.

Compared to earlier generations or retirees, Social Security will replace less of pre-retirement earnings, as the Full Retirement Age has risen from 65 to 66 and is heading to 67 for those born after 1954. The value of waiting can mean a pay increase as much as 8% per year.

#3 Getting blindside by the “Tax Torpedo”.

Think about all the money you have contributed to your 401(k) and IRA’s over the years. Now add all the employer’s matches and earnings on your contributions. All that tax-deferred money is just sitting there and will have to eventually have to be withdrawn – and taxed. Not only will these withdrawals be subject to tax, but they will also generate higher incomes – and therefore trigger higher taxation of your Social Security benefits. Put it all together, and you’ll see that we’re facing what once journalist has called the “Tax Torpedo.” Fortunately, it can be avoided with the proper income planning strategy.

#4 Not understanding the various way married couples can integrate their benefits.

Perhaps the most confusing aspect of Social Security is trying to understand the different types of retirement benefits for which married spouses are eligible, and how those benefits interact with each other. The following is a very brief definition of each.

Claiming Strategies for Married CouplesFile and Suspend – Prior to 2000, if a worker delayed collecting Social Security, the spouse would not be able to collect spousal benefits. Fortunately, changes made under the Senior Citizens’ Freedom to Work Act allow a worker to “file and suspend” benefits once FRA has been reached.

File a Restricted Application – Assuming that your spouse has filed for worker benefits, you could file for ONLY a spousal benefit based on your spouse’s work record, while letting your benefits grow at 8% per year until you reach age 70.

Combining the Two – There is a way to combine the two strategies, with one spouse filing and suspending a worker benefit while the other spouse files a restricted application for only the spousal benefit.

When to begin Social Security benefits is arguable the most important financial decision of retirement. There are literally hundreds of ways to claim benefits that can cost retirees thousands of dollars of lost benefits. That is why we offer a comprehensive, personalized report that includes an optimal claiming strategy. This detailed report includes instructions on when and how to claim benefits, resulting in the most cumulative benefits possible for your retirement.

Using Social Security Solutions, Inc. as our premier software provider of solving client’s social security problems has made us one of the top Oakland County retirement income experts. Let us help you make the proper financial decisions that will last a lifetime.

Michael S. BullisFinancial AdvisorRaymond James Financial Services, Inc.248.584.1400mike.bullis@raymondjames.com

Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC

Maximizing Your Social Security Benefits

Friday, June 26th

5:00-9:00 p.m.

Proceeds benefit TCH Youth Outreach Programs

Free Admission$5 per project / $20 unlimited projects

All Ages Welcome

ParkArta youth evening of the arts

Come Celebrate & Participate ~ Art in Shain Park

Held at Shain Park, Birmingham across the street from TCH

ParkArt is a fun, interactive, art filled evening for youth. Children are invited to enjoy hands-on art projects throughout Shain Park. Bring a lawn chair to watch main stage performances

including: TCH Youth Summer Theater Actors and the TCH Ballet Ensemble.

• Painting• Photography• Recycled Art • Theater• Tie-Dye• Zentangle

• Calligraphy• Dancing• Fiber Art• Henna• Mural Art• Origami

Hands-on Projects:

ParkArt

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a youth evening of the arts

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put together a comprehensive action plan blueprint. Having a comprehensive view of the project upfront can facilitate a smooth and less expensive project implementation, systematically and efficiently caring for every need of the senior in crisis.

Seek Supportive Downsizing Services & StrategiesImplement great strategies. Letting go of cherished memories, cherished space, and treasured possessions requires patience and a team of supportive professionals. Whether the client is sorting through their possessions themselves, or with the assistance of family, it’s important to look at this process as an opportunity to relive special moments. A great way to handle emotions of loss is to take photos of the furniture, artwork, and treasures that are being donated, sold, or disbursed to family members and upload these photos to a digital photo frame to view and reminisce over. This type of visual remembrance often lessens the feeling of loss. Engage the help of downsizing specialists. Downsizing, staging and estate sale professionals can help you employ proven strategies to turn difficult circumstances into positive outcomes!

Live Your Dream LifeToday’s savvy seniors are adapting to a changing world to take advantage of remaking their skill sets, environment, interests, finances, health, relationships and legacies. Their living environment plays a huge role in this and deserves special attention and consideration. Whether it’s downsizing to a maintenance free condo, moving to a senior living community, upsizing to a dream home or finding the perfect snowbird home, seek the advice of a Senior Specialist (SRES) and live your savvy senior dream life!

Christine Lynn, SRESChar Rosenbaum, Associate BrokerCranbrook Realtors248.761.6696ChristineLynn@CranRealtors.comCharReal@Comcast.net

Getting Savvy about the Senior Real Estate MarketWhen it Comes to Senior Real Estate...

Make No Assumptions!

It’s important to consider the needs and wants of mature buyers. One can’t assume that a retiree wants to downsize, many retirees upsize to accommodate visits from adult children and precious grandchildren. After children leave the nest, some want their dream adult home with lots of space for hobbies. Others want room for a home-based business or their volunteer work. It’s very important to discover a client’s desires, expectations and priorities when it comes to senior real estate because today’s seniors can and do break all the old school rules!

Fill the Experience GapThe pace of today’s technology and the rate of change in real estate law can create an Experience Gap for senior clients. If you’ve upsized, downsized, managed real estate investments or been in the real estate business lately, you’re probably up to snuff on all of the current intricacies. If you’ve lived in your current home for a while, you’re probably suffering from the experience gap and need a little help from a senior real estate professional to ensure protecting your interests in a real estate transaction. For example, are you aware of the Cottage Law beginning December 2013 which states that the taxable capped value will not be removed if you convey title to the 1st degree by blood or affinity and the use of the property does not change? How about the December 2014 amendment to the Cottage Law which then includes grandparents, grandchildren, trusts, wills and probate? Seek the advice of a certified elder law lawyer to be sure you’re not caught in the gap and that you’re maximizing your net worth based on today’s tax and real estate laws!

Deal Compassionately with Crises NeedsWhen a person’s quality of life is suffering and their current home is a hindrance to their welfare, a real estate transaction can often become a crisis need. Having a team of seasoned professionals at the ready during a time of crisis is vital. Senior Real Estate Specialists have a network of «go-to» professionals in each of the related areas: Downsizing companies, Estate Sale Experts, Staging Companies, Moving & Storage Companies, Estate Attorneys, Elder Law Attorneys, Home Repair Contractors, and Senior Living Companies. Your SRES Realtor can promptly

about 10 years from your appearance. Techniques have come a long way with more natural and facially balanced results. It is helpful to embrace a healthy lifestyle that includes eating nutritious food, exercise, and using anti-aging products with sunscreen every day to get the longest lasting results.

Rhinoplasty sculpting can transform a person’s life, as it truly addresses both cosmetic and

functional concerns. A rhinoplasty’s many purposes are to: 1) improve the size and shape of the nose; 2) repair damage caused by an injury; 3) improve or restore breathing; and 4) to complement or balance other facial sculpting procedures such as eyelid or chin augmentation surgery.

The rhinoplasty procedure is performed as an outpatient procedure under general anesthesia.

It can either be a closed procedure, with the incision inside the nose; or an open procedure which places the incision across the narrow strip of the tissue that separates the nasal passages – both lift the soft tissue to sculpt the desired shape and straighten the septum, if needed.

Surgeon Credentials: Be sure your surgeon is trained and board certified in the area of the body

you are considering changing. There are only 24 valid board certifications and only 2 that relate to cosmetic surgery of the face. The best choice is a surgeon that is board certified by the American Board of Plastic Surgery. He or she has to have graduated from an accredited medical school, completed at least 5 years of surgical training and additionally a minimum of 2 years of specific plastic surgery training. It is important to ask which hospitals give your surgeon privileges to perform your chosen surgery. If none, then run!

William J. Vasileff, M.D.Birmingham Institute of Plastic Surgerywww.drvasileff.com248.644.0670

Is It Time For Plastic Surgery?Things to Know to Make the Decision

Many of us think about something for a long time that we really want to do, but are just nervous about taking the next step. This can be something as simple as taking skiing lessons, to something as serious as elective surgery. How many times have you heard someone say “I wish I had done this years ago?”

Changing your look through plastic surgery can fall within this emotional dilemma. Let’s

look at 2 of the most common procedures; a face lift and rhinoplasty (commonly known as a “nose job”). Neither should be taken on without significant research to understand what they entail, nor without a good amount of self-introspection. Both address cosmetic, and in some instances, functional concerns. And both demand being performed by a plastic surgeon with the right credentials.

Why Have A Face Lift? Typically, the reasons people elect to have a face lift are 1) they think

they look older and more tired than they feel; 2) they feel having a face lift will positively impact their career; 3) they don’t like sagging cheeks, jowls or necks; and 4) they just want the boost in self-esteem that comes with facial rejuvenation. Whatever the motivation, many people, generally age 50-75, re-energize their personal and professional lives with a face lift.

The face lift procedure entails the plastic surgeon placing an incision around the ears in a very

discreet spot so that any scarring is nicely concealed. This is done to tighten the underlying tissue, and to remove excess skin. The surgeon may recommend a technique called “fat grafting,” which uses your own body fat as a natural, living filler to plump wrinkles for a natural, healthy appearance. A face lift does much more than its name implies, as it will:

• lift sagging cheeks• re-sculpt the fat of the face and neck• reduce the jowls• tighten neck skin

Recovery Period and Results: People heal at different rates, but bruising and swelling normally

subside after 10 days to 2 weeks. You’ll see instant results, but within three months you’ll enjoy the full benefit of your more youthful appearance. A face lift never stops the natural aging process, but it can erase

TCH OUTREACH IMPACT PROGRAMS for At-Risk Youth and Children in Need

iCountTM Childhood Obesity Prevention Program

Student Art Town Art Exhibit and Workshops21st Century Leaders Program

21ST CENTURY

three parts: analytical, psychological, and organizational.

• Develop checklists that ensure you actually perform all the tasks you’re supposed to perform. They help to direct and manage your attention during distracting times

• Checklists should be short - five to nine items and fit on one page; language - simple, exact, and familiar to the users; format - free of distracting colors and graphics; typeface - easy to read

• Processes/Checklists should encourage team members to try to identify, prevent, or solve problems. They are living documents that evolve and should be tested and refined as necessary

• Have a plan for strategic interactions; if you are the favorite, simplify the game. If you are the underdog, make it more complicated (think David vs. Goliath). Tradition, a lack of awareness, fear of doing something different and then failing, and switching costs can all be factors as to why people fail to move off a bad strategy.

• Think carefully about feedback and rewards; a coach or teacher who designs a curriculum specifically to improve performance provides timely and accurate feedback in order to detect and correct errors. Deliberate practice demands performance that is just outside of your comfort zone so there is a constant sense of being challenged without feeling overwhelmed.

One reason that deliberate practice is so taxing is that it compels you to stay in the cognitive stage, constantly thinking about and improving your results, rather than allowing you to slip into the automatic stage, where performance becomes habitual and fluid. Skill does play a role in success and failure, but it can be overwhelmed by the influence of luck.

Paul Fenner, CFP®, ChFCTAMMA CapitalPresidentRegistered Investment Advisor248.860.2279pfenner@tammacapital.com

The Success EquationHow many of you believe that Great Success = Skill + Luck? My belief in this equation was reinforced recently after reading the book, The Success Equation by Michael Mauboussin. While I subscribe to the notion that there is nothing you can do to improve your luck and that your luck is just that, luck. I also believe that you can improve your skill which in turn increases your odds for success. In order to achieve success, you cannot rely on skill or luck alone, you have to have both.

A key to understanding the success equation is to recognize where you are on the luck-skill continuum. Whether or not you can improve your skill depends a great deal on where the activity lies on this scale. If you can easily identify the cause of a given effect, you’re most likely on the skill side of the continuum. If it’s hard to tell, you’re on the luck side.

Mauboussin points out that there are three lessons to take away from his book:

1. Whenever you see an extreme outlier it is a combination of great skill and luck (good or bad)

2. Reversion to the mean is very powerful in that the best estimate of the next outcome is in many cases the base rate. Skill activity = no reversion; Luck activity = complete reversion

3. Paradox of skill; while absolute skill has never been higher, relative skill has never been narrower which leads more left to luck. For example Ted Williams the last person to hit .400 in major league baseball would hit .380 today. This can lead to what is known as Self-Serving Attribution Bias in which people attribute success to their own skill, even in endeavors that are determined mostly by luck

Bottom line, in order to improve your success equation you must pursue a path of deliberate practice in order to increase your level of skill. Here are some ideas to help further develop your level of skill:

• Develop aids to guide and improve your skill; Whether you’re managing a sports team, running a business, or investing in stocks, a skillful process will be rooted in

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