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U.S. PUBLIC FINANCE CREDIT OPINION 15 August 2016 New Issue Contacts Pranav Sharma 212-553-7164 AVP-Analyst [email protected] Susan I Fitzgerald 212-553-6832 Associate Managing Director [email protected] Matthew Kuchtyak 212-553-6930 Associate Analyst [email protected] The College of New Jersey, NJ New Sale - Moody's Assigns A2 to The College of New Jersey's $189M Series 2016 Bonds; Outlook Stable Summary Rating Rationale Moody's Investors Service has assigned an A2 to The College of New Jersey's proposed $189 million of fixed-rate Series 2016F and 2016G Revenue Refunding Bonds which have an expected maturity in 2040. We have also affirmed the A2 rating on outstanding bonds. The outlook is stable. The A2 rating is supported by the college's mid-sized scale of operations ($222 million revenue in FY 2015 and over 6,900 full-time equivalent students), with a distinct market niche in New Jersey that is expected to result in ongoing strong student demand. Conservative budgeting and steady revenue growth have contributed to historically excellent operating cash flow. The strength of governance and management is a key factor supporting the current stable outlook given the State of New Jersey' s (A2 negative) own fiscal challenges. The college's market strength, combined with good financial planning and forecasting, improves prospects of fiscal stability even as the college confronts what is likely to be an increasingly challenging state funding environment over the next several years. Offsetting credit considerations include very high financial leverage and resulting moderate debt service coverage. Credit Strengths » Sound student demand as an academically selective public college in New Jersey, resulting in a 14% growth in net tuition per student in the last five years » Consistently favorable operating performance (FY 2015 operating cash flow margin: 19.7%) resulting in still good debt service coverage » Very good levels of financial reserves and liquidity, with 213 monthly days cash on hand, enhance financial flexibility » Strong governance and management monitoring financial results throughout the year and producing monthly financial statements Credit Challenges » Very high debt burden, with pro-forma debt to operating revenue of 1.6 times, and debt service consuming nearly 12% of operations » Expected increasing pressure on state support, resulting in stagnant to declining state funding for operations and pension expense

The College of New Jersey, NJ - treasurer.tcnj.edu · U.S. PUBLIC FINANCE CREDIT OPINION 15 August 2016 New Issue Contacts Pranav Sharma 212-553-7164 AVP-Analyst [email protected]

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Page 1: The College of New Jersey, NJ - treasurer.tcnj.edu · U.S. PUBLIC FINANCE CREDIT OPINION 15 August 2016 New Issue Contacts Pranav Sharma 212-553-7164 AVP-Analyst pranav.sharma@moodys.com

U.S. PUBLIC FINANCE

CREDIT OPINION15 August 2016

New Issue

Contacts

Pranav Sharma [email protected]

Susan I Fitzgerald 212-553-6832Associate [email protected]

Matthew Kuchtyak 212-553-6930Associate [email protected]

The College of New Jersey, NJNew Sale - Moody's Assigns A2 to The College of NewJersey's $189M Series 2016 Bonds; Outlook Stable

Summary Rating RationaleMoody's Investors Service has assigned an A2 to The College of New Jersey's proposed $189million of fixed-rate Series 2016F and 2016G Revenue Refunding Bonds which have anexpected maturity in 2040. We have also affirmed the A2 rating on outstanding bonds. Theoutlook is stable.

The A2 rating is supported by the college's mid-sized scale of operations ($222 millionrevenue in FY 2015 and over 6,900 full-time equivalent students), with a distinct marketniche in New Jersey that is expected to result in ongoing strong student demand.Conservative budgeting and steady revenue growth have contributed to historicallyexcellent operating cash flow. The strength of governance and management is a key factorsupporting the current stable outlook given the State of New Jersey's (A2 negative) ownfiscal challenges. The college's market strength, combined with good financial planning andforecasting, improves prospects of fiscal stability even as the college confronts what is likelyto be an increasingly challenging state funding environment over the next several years.Offsetting credit considerations include very high financial leverage and resulting moderatedebt service coverage.

Credit Strengths

» Sound student demand as an academically selective public college in New Jersey,resulting in a 14% growth in net tuition per student in the last five years

» Consistently favorable operating performance (FY 2015 operating cash flow margin:19.7%) resulting in still good debt service coverage

» Very good levels of financial reserves and liquidity, with 213 monthly days cash on hand,enhance financial flexibility

» Strong governance and management monitoring financial results throughout the yearand producing monthly financial statements

Credit Challenges

» Very high debt burden, with pro-forma debt to operating revenue of 1.6 times, and debtservice consuming nearly 12% of operations

» Expected increasing pressure on state support, resulting in stagnant to declining statefunding for operations and pension expense

Page 2: The College of New Jersey, NJ - treasurer.tcnj.edu · U.S. PUBLIC FINANCE CREDIT OPINION 15 August 2016 New Issue Contacts Pranav Sharma 212-553-7164 AVP-Analyst pranav.sharma@moodys.com

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE U.S. PUBLIC FINANCE

This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page onwww.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

2 15 August 2016 The College of New Jersey, NJ: New Sale - Moody's Assigns A2 to The College of New Jersey's $189M Series 2016 Bonds; Outlook Stable

» Expense containment will become increasingly critical for maintaining fiscal stability,given expectations of moderating revenue growth

» Ongoing identified capital needs, with only modest additional debt capacity givenalready high leverage

Rating OutlookThe stable outlook is based on our expectation that TCNJ will maintain solid student demand and will make prudent adjustments tosustain cash flow even in the face of stagnant to moderately declining state operating appropriations.

Factors that Could Lead to an Upgrade

» Substantial growth of financial reserves and revenue to better absorb leverage and provide an enhanced financial cushion in anevolving state funding environment

Factors that Could Lead to a Downgrade

» Sustained weakening of operating cash flow and deterioration of debt service coverage

» Additional sizeable debt issuance without meaningful growth of financial reserves or cash flow

» Further pressure on the State of New Jersey's credit quality or increased expectations of more material state funding reductions

Key Indicators

Exhibit 1

The College of New Jersey, NJ

Source: Moody's Investors Service

Recent DevelopmentsIncluded in Detailed Rating Considerations.

Detailed Rating ConsiderationsMarket Profile: Strong Student Demand in a Highly Competitive MarketTCNJ 's strategic positioning will remain sound driven by its strong student demand, diversified program offerings, and an attractivecampus. The college's market niche of offering an affordable tuition, with a mid-sized enrollment (6,957 FTE students) allows it tocompete effectively with Rutgers, the state's flagship public university, as well as public universities and private colleges in New Jersey,

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE U.S. PUBLIC FINANCE

3 15 August 2016 The College of New Jersey, NJ: New Sale - Moody's Assigns A2 to The College of New Jersey's $189M Series 2016 Bonds; Outlook Stable

Pennsylvania and Delaware. TCNJ also benefits from having its enrollment diversified among fields related to business, engineering,education, science, nursing, and liberal arts, providing broad stability in the event of a downturn in any single field.

Strong student demand is reflected in college's selectivity (ratio of students accepted to student application received; lower is better)and matriculation rate (ratio of students enrolled to student admitted; higher is better). In fall 2015, the college accepted 49% offreshman applicants, making it the most selective college among New Jersey public universities. Over one-quarter of those acceptedchose to attend in fall 2015. The strength of TCNJ's market position is further supported by its high retention rate of 94% which wasthe highest among all New Jersey public universities. The college is projecting a modest increase in the fall 2016 incoming class. Nettuition per student, a key indicator of pricing power and favorable market position, has grown 14% since FY 2011 to $15,340 in FY2015.

Operating Performance: Positive Cash Flows Continue Despite Stagnation in State Operating SupportTCNJ will continue to achieve sound operating performance given its dedicated fiscal oversight and demonstrated history ofconservatively budgeting for enrollment, and cost containment efforts. High expense growth associated with rising benefit costs haveoutpaced modest tuition increases, somewhat narrowing the historically robust cash flow margin. The FY 2015 cash flow margin was19.7%, covering debt service by 1.7 times. For FY 2016, TCNJ is projecting performance to be similar to FY 2015.

TCNJ has relatively moderate dependence on the state for direct operating support, as only 13% of its operating revenue was derivedfrom direct state support in FY 2015. However, this appropriation has not increased since FY 2012, forcing the college to compensatefor state support that has not kept up with inflation. Per the Governor's recent budget proposal for FY 2017, operating funding for TCNJwill remain at the FY 2016 level ($27.1 million) with a modest increase for fringe benefits funding, a trend for all public universities inNew Jersey where a growing share of state funding is dedicated to employee benefits.

Wealth and Liquidity: Relatively Good Reserves and LiquidityTCNJ has been able to grow its reserves due to retained earnings and improvement in fundraising. Spendable cash and investmentsincreased to $151 million in FY 2015, up from $114 million in FY 2011. As of FY 2015, spendable cash and investments covered over 8months of operating expenses, a reasonably sound cushion given healthy operating cash flow.

LIQUIDITY

The college's liquidity is comparatively strong for the rating category, with unrestricted monthly liquidity of $114 million at the endof FY 2015 providing 213 monthly days cash on hand. Calls for liquidity are currently limited as the college has favorable operatingperformance, no demand debt, no swaps, and no unfunded commitments for private equity investments.

Leverage: Very High Debt Burden Limits Debt Capacity; Pension Burden an Additional Credit ChallengeThe college has very high debt burden with debt to operating revenue ratio of 1.6 times and spendable cash and investments of $151million providing just 0.4 times coverage of $367 million of outstanding debt as of FYE 2015. The aggressive use of debt was a keycomponent in TCNJ's transformation from a teacher's training institution into a selective, nationally recognized liberal arts, businessand education college, attracting highly qualified New Jersey students. Additionally, given that the state support for capital projectsremains below average in New Jersey, TCNJ borrowed for most academic and auxiliary projects.

The college has very limited debt capacity at the current rating. Annual debt service represents over 11% of operating expenses, limitingthe college's financial flexibility. Management reports having future debt plans related to student housing. The timeline and the size offinancing have not yet been determined.

The college also has a public private partnership for the Campus Town project (housing facilities and retail, not for exclusive use bythe college), which includes no direct obligation of the college to support the project. We have not included the debt on the college'sbalance sheet, but monitor the project as a component of the college's capital strategy. Currently credit neutral, the credit impact toTCNJ could change if the college were to provide financial or significant additional support to the project. Phase One of Campus Townopened in fall 2015 and Phase Two will open in fall 2016 with a total of 612 beds that will be fully occupied. The total project cost isestimated at $120 million.

DEBT STRUCTURE

All rated debt is fixed rate and regularly amortizing.

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE U.S. PUBLIC FINANCE

4 15 August 2016 The College of New Jersey, NJ: New Sale - Moody's Assigns A2 to The College of New Jersey's $189M Series 2016 Bonds; Outlook Stable

DEBT-RELATED DERIVATIVES

None

PENSIONS AND OPEB

TCNJ, like other New Jersey public higher education institutions, is challenged by participation in poorly funded multi-employer definedbenefit plans as well as a defined contribution program that also receives state funding. After Moody's adjustments, the defined benefitpension plans in which the college participates were funded at a weighted average of approximately 26% at FYE 2015, contributing toa $135 million Moody's-adjusted average net pension liability. Combined with outstanding debt, this represents a sizeable 2.3 timesoperating revenue for FY 2015, approximately double the median for all rated public universities.

TCNJ participates in four retirements plans: the Public Employees' Retirement System (PERS), Teachers' Pension and Annuity Fund(TPAF), and Police and Firemen's Retirement System (PFRS) which are defined benefit plans. The college also participates in theAlternate Benefit Program (ABP) which is a defined contribution plan. Employer contributions for all PERS, TPAF, and PFRS participantsand for ABP participants under a maximum contribution limit are paid by the State of New Jersey through appropriated funds. Totalstate appropriations for fringe benefits in FY 2015 of $24.9 million were modestly higher than the FY 2014 level and are expected togrow as the state continues to ramp up pension funding, possibly depressing funding for operations to compensate.

Currently, the college pays the employer pension contribution for ABP participants in excess of the state's maximum limit oncompensation (currently $141,000 per calendar year) for TCNJ employees, amounting to well under 1% of the college’s operatingexpenses.

Governance and Management: Sound Fiscal Stewardship Supports Positive OperationsThe college's management practices, together with its healthy cash flow and budgetary flexibility, are key factors behind maintainingthe A2 rating in spite of the very high debt burden and increasingly challenging state funding environment. TCNJ's sound fiscalstewardship is reflected in conservative budgeting, multi-year forecasting, regular budgetary oversight and consistently strongoperating cash flow.

Legal SecuritySeries 2016F and G bonds are an unsecured general obligation of the college, on parity with the rated debt, and payable from anylegally available funds.

Use of ProceedsProceeds will be used to advance refund a portion of the Series 2008D bonds, a portion of Series 2010B bonds, and to pay the costs ofissuance.

Obligor ProfileThe College of New Jersey is located in the Trenton suburb of Ewing Township and is one of 12 public, four-year institutions of highereducation in the State of New Jersey. The college is best known for its programs in business, education, engineering, humanities,nursing and science. The college has around 7,000 full-time equivalent students and generates $222 million of operating revenue.

MethodologyThe principal methodology used in this rating was Global Higher Education published in November 2015. Please see the RatingsMethodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE U.S. PUBLIC FINANCE

5 15 August 2016 The College of New Jersey, NJ: New Sale - Moody's Assigns A2 to The College of New Jersey's $189M Series 2016 Bonds; Outlook Stable

Ratings

Exhibit 2

College of New Jersey, NJIssue RatingRevenue Refunding Bonds, Series 2016 F A2

Rating Type Underlying LTSale Amount $84,000,000Expected Sale Date 08/23/2016Rating Description Revenue: Public University

Broad PledgeRevenue Refunding Bonds, Series 2016 G(Federally Taxable)

A2

Rating Type Underlying LTSale Amount $105,000,000Expected Sale Date 08/23/2016Rating Description Revenue: Public University

Broad PledgeSource: Moody's Investors Service

Page 6: The College of New Jersey, NJ - treasurer.tcnj.edu · U.S. PUBLIC FINANCE CREDIT OPINION 15 August 2016 New Issue Contacts Pranav Sharma 212-553-7164 AVP-Analyst pranav.sharma@moodys.com

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE U.S. PUBLIC FINANCE

6 15 August 2016 The College of New Jersey, NJ: New Sale - Moody's Assigns A2 to The College of New Jersey's $189M Series 2016 Bonds; Outlook Stable

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE U.S. PUBLIC FINANCE

7 15 August 2016 The College of New Jersey, NJ: New Sale - Moody's Assigns A2 to The College of New Jersey's $189M Series 2016 Bonds; Outlook Stable

Contacts

Pranav Sharma [email protected]

CLIENT SERVICES

Americas 1-212-553-1653

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