The Center for Nanotechnology in Society A R I Z O N A S T A T E U N I V E R S I T Y Cynthia Selin Post Doctoral Research Associate Scenarios for Nanotechnologies Development NANO GIGA MARCH 16, 2007 The Center for Nanotechnology in Society A R I Z O N A S T A T E U N I V E R S I T Y THE U.S. 21ST CENTURY NANOTECHNOLOGY R&D ACT OF 2003 (PL ) Sec 2(b)(10): Establish societal implications research program Require NSECs address societal implications Integrate societal concerns with nano R&D for benefit of all Provide for public input The Center for Nanotechnology in Society A R I Z O N A S T A T E U N I V E R S I T Y Network for Nanotechnology in Society Awards made Fall 2005: NSEC/Center for Nanotechnology in Society at Arizona State University $6.2 million NSEC/Center for Nanotechnology in Society at UC Santa Barbara $5 million Project at Harvard/UCLA ($1.7 M) Project at University of South Carolina ($1.4 M) The Center for Nanotechnology in Society A R I Z O N A S T A T E U N I V E R S I T Y ASUs CENTER FOR NANOTECHNOLOGY IN SOCIETY Guston & Sarewitz 2002 Testing the hypothesis: participatory, deliberative processes will stimulate efforts to enhance desirable impacts and mitigate undesirable ones through decisions made by NSE researchers about research priorities and directions The Center for Nanotechnology in Society A R I Z O N A S T A T E U N I V E R S I T Y REAL TIME TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT (RTTA) RTTA 1 - Research and Innovation Systems Analysis Research Program Assessment Public Value Mapping Workforce Assessment RTTA 2 - Public Opinion and Values Public Opinion Media Influence Scientists Opinions RTTA 3 Deliberation and Participation Scenario Development Innovation Space Critical Corps National Citizens Technology Forum RTTA 4 - Reflexivity Assessment and Evaluation Reflexivity Assessment Boundary Organizations The Center for Nanotechnology in Society A R I Z O N A S T A T E U N I V E R S I T Y REAL TIME TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT INTEGRATION: Embedded in knowledge creation process, integrated in existing processes REFLEXIVE: polling, focus groups, socio-technical mapping and dialogue between producers and consumers ENGAGEMENT: latent publics, lab researchers, broad stakeholders ANTICIPATION: Uses retrospective & prospective analysis- to situate innovations in context RTTA AS A DIFFERENCE The Center for Nanotechnology in Society A R I Z O N A S T A T E U N I V E R S I T Y WHY ANTICIPATION MATTERS Not prediction! Premature, emergent S & T Latent publics Contentious debate Promises, hype & expectations The Center for Nanotechnology in Society A R I Z O N A S T A T E U N I V E R S I T Y VISIONS, HYPE AND EXPECTATIONS We believe investments in nanoelectronics are essential to start the engine of the technological revolution of the next decade" -- Dr. Hans Stork, Chief Technology Officer, Texas Instruments Nanotechnology is among the fastest- growing fields of research. It has unlimited potential to change the way we live. " --U.S. Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas) "In a sense this (nanotechnology theory) would allow you to play God" --Pablo Debenedetti, Professor of Chemical Engineering, Princeton University The Center for Nanotechnology in Society A R I Z O N A S T A T E U N I V E R S I T Y EXPECTATIONS & VISIONS OF FUTURE CONSEQUENCES Functional to sense- and decision making in the present Evolve & are dynamic: continually generated and discarded Operate as schemata, modulated by experience and knowledge The Center for Nanotechnology in Society A R I Z O N A S T A T E U N I V E R S I T Y WHY ANTICIPATION MATTERS Expectations are constitutive elements of the innovation process The Center for Nanotechnology in Society A R I Z O N A S T A T E U N I V E R S I T Y WHY ANTICIPATION MATTERS Not prediction! Premature, emergent S & T Latent publics Contentious debate Promises, hype & expectations The Center for Nanotechnology in Society A R I Z O N A S T A T E U N I V E R S I T Y ANTICIPATION AT CNS Goals To develop multiple, plausible visions of nanotechnology enabled futures, elucidate public preferences for various alternatives The Center for Nanotechnology in Society A R I Z O N A S T A T E U N I V E R S I T Y CHARACTERISTICS OF SCENARIOS LINK TO FORESIGHT possibility-based narrativity multiplicity of story lines plausibility internal consistency The Center for Nanotechnology in Society A R I Z O N A S T A T E U N I V E R S I T Y USES FOR SCENARIOS Decision Making Generating Creativity Learning Framing Debate Focusing Vision Building Identities Consensus Formulating Strategic Plans The Center for Nanotechnology in Society A R I Z O N A S T A T E U N I V E R S I T Y ANTICIPATION AT CNS Goals To cultivate societys ability to govern the implications of its own ingenuity The Center for Nanotechnology in Society A R I Z O N A S T A T E U N I V E R S I T Y "If present trends in nanoscience and nanotechnology continue, most aspects of everyday life are subject to change." - National Science and Technology Council Who controls your Nano Futures? Here are ten scenarios exploring possible futures of nanotechnology. Will they come true? Should they? Why or why not? Who gets to decide? Will it be you? This site is your opportunity to interactively construct the future. Click below to READ the scenarios and MODIFY them- DISCUSS them- and if you dont like ours, WRITE your own! Tattoo Remorse? Tomorrow's Sponge? Attack of the Autonomous Window Cleaners Brain Drain My Gulag Surviving Brain Enhancement DNA Sewer Shake it Like a Can of Soup Is Someone Tracking Your Every Step? PanOpticon "Now nanotechnology had made nearly anything possible, and so the cultural role in deciding what should be done with it had become far more important than imagining what could be done with it." Neal Stephenson "Every time I see an adult on a bicycle, I no longer despair for the future of the human race." H.G. Wells Nave product scenarios Web-based wiki & forum Focus on plausibility The Center for Nanotechnology in Society A R I Z O N A S T A T E U N I V E R S I T Y RTTA 3 Scenario Development Vision and technical Database Public Policy Publics Nanoscientists & Engineers Social Scientists Scenarios Which audiences? The Center for Nanotechnology in Society A R I Z O N A S T A T E U N I V E R S I T Y Implantable chips to relay stored or beamed information directly into the brain. NANOFUTURES Surviving Brain Enhancement The Center for Nanotechnology in Society A R I Z O N A S T A T E U N I V E R S I T Y The Center for Nanotechnology in Society A R I Z O N A S T A T E U N I V E R S I T Y The Center for Nanotechnology in Society A R I Z O N A S T A T E U N I V E R S I T Y Bar-less prisons that use nano- scale drug distribution systems, set in prisoners bodies and triggered by radio frequencies, to incapacitate potential escapees. NANOFUTURES My Gulag The Center for Nanotechnology in Society A R I Z O N A S T A T E U N I V E R S I T Y Nano-scale tagents to stick to, label, and track anything and any exposure situation. NANOFUTURES The Center for Nanotechnology in Society A R I Z O N A S T A T E U N I V E R S I T Y Technical Vetting by NSE Researchers Visions and technical Database ScenariosApplications RTTA Scenario Development The Center for Nanotechnology in Society A R I Z O N A S T A T E U N I V E R S I T Y ROLE OF NANOSCALE SCIENTISTS AND ENGINEERS Should scientists be involved in vetting the scenarios? Technical feasibility Potential for realization Internal consistency Logic of development How to validate scenarios of the future? What does plausibility mean to you? The Center for Nanotechnology in Society A R I Z O N A S T A T E U N I V E R S I T Y REAL TIME TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT at CNS Ensemble: Mixed Approach Anticipatory Governance Taking Science, Technology and Society & Innovation Learning Seriously Web address: