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For institutional client use only
The Cash Manager's Survival GuideAre You Equipped for Unprecedented Volatility?
May 2012
Not FDIC insured. May lose value. No bank guarantee.
Michael Morin, CFA®Director of Institutional Portfolio Management, Liquidity Management Solutions Fidelity Investments
Formulating the Survival Guide
I. Establish / update an investment policy
II. Analyze projected cash flows
III. Establish an investment strategy
IV. Identify and build counterparty relationships
V. Monitor and assess risks (Know what you own)
VI. Modify / update the survival guide (Maintain flexibility)
1© 2012 FMR LLC. All rights reserved
For institutional client use only
For institutional client use only
Assessing Risk: Current Market Conditions
© 2012 FMR LLC. All rights reserved
3© 2012 FMR LLC. All rights reserved
For institutional client use onlySource: Federal Reserve Board as of 1/25/12
Fed Maintains Highly Accommodative Monetary Policy
Federal Reserve Board Rate Expectations
Financial Spreads Experience Recent Volatility
4Source: Barclay’s and FMR as of 3/31/12For Institutional Use Only© 2012 FMR LLC. All rights reserved.
3-MONTH LIBOR VS. 3-MONTH TREASURIES
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5 For Institutional Use Only
Short-Term Credit Spreads Stabilize
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Index performance is not meant to represent that of any Fidelity mutual fund.Source: Bloomberg as of 3/31/12
TED Spread High:10/10/08: 464 bps
TED Spread Low:3/16/10: 11 bps TED Spread Current:
3/31/12: 40 bps
© 2012 FMR LLC. All rights reserved.
For institutional client use only
May 2011
European Council approves €78 billion bailout program for Portugal
March 2011
European Banking Authority publishes provisional details of second EU-wide bank stress test with results expected to be released in July 2011
Apr 2011
Portugal asks for a bailout
European Central Bank raises policy rate 25 basis points to 1.25%
Dec 2009
Statement by Commissioner Almuniaon Greece:
"We take note of the fact that the sustainability of public finances in Greece draws the attention of financial markets and rating agencies."
Jan 2010
Eurostat report on Greek deficit and debt statisticsquestions the reliability of Greek figures in general and recent Greek revisions of excessive deficit procedure notifications
Feb 2010
European Commission adopts recommendations to ensure that the budget deficit of Greece was to be brought below 3% of GDP by 2012
May 2010
ECB and IMF agree to€110B Greek bailout
€440B European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) established
Additional funding through IMF bilateral loans brings total support to €860B
July 2010
Committee of European Banking Supervisors (CEBS) announces results of first European bank stress test of which seven banks failed
Aug 2010
The European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) becomes fully operational
Dec 2010
European Council and IMF agree to provide €85 billion to Ireland
The EC agrees to replace EFSF with European Stability Mechanism (ESM)
European Debt Crisis – A Timeline of Events
Source: FMR, European Economic and Financial Affairs as of 2/29/12
July 2011
Greece receives 5th
installment (€12 B) of original € 110B bailout
Discussions begin for additional €100B bailout
EBA releases results of second stress test
June 2011
Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou receives vote of confidence and €78B of austerity approved
© 2012 FMR LLC. All rights reserved
Dec 2011
ECB cuts overnight refinancing rate 25 basis points to 1.00%
Euro area holds summit and agrees to more consolidated fiscal union,
Oct 2011
European Council and Euro area hold summit to discuss fiscal unity and integration of the Euro area
Nov 2011
Italian 10-year bond yields soar to 7%
Greek President Papandreou replaced by Lucas Papademos
ECB President Claude Trichet replaced by Mario Draghi
Aug 2011
French President Sarkozy and German Chancellor Merkel propose common efforts to strengthen the governance of the euro area
Dec 2011
ECB provides banks with €489B of 3-year loans through LTRO
6
Feb – Mar 2012
ECB provides second LTRO installment
Greece receives second bailout through Private Sector Involvement
Greek Debt Load: Smaller Countries Can Cause Contagion
7© 2012 FMR LLC. All rights reserved
For institutional client use only
Interactive Graph can be found at: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15748696
Source: Bank for International Settlements, IMF, World Bank, UN Population Division
Italian Debt Load: Large Versus Growth Expectations
8© 2012 FMR LLC. All rights reserved
For institutional client use only
Interactive Graph can be found at: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15748696
Source: Bank for International Settlements, IMF, World Bank, UN Population Division
US Debt Load: Large but Manageable
9© 2012 FMR LLC. All rights reserved
For institutional client use only
Interactive Graph can be found at: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15748696
Source: Bank for International Settlements, IMF, World Bank, UN Population Division
10 For Institutional Use Only
Credit Concerns Accelerate in Eurozone
Source: Barclays Capital as of 3/31/12
10 YEAR BOND YIELDS OF SELECT EUROZONE COUNTRIES
© 2012 FMR LLC. All rights reserved.
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11 For Institutional Use Only
Banks Deposit Cash at ECB to Raise Liquidity
Source: Bloomberg as of 3/31/12
ECB RESERVES VS. EUR BASIS SWAP
© 2012 FMR LLC. All rights reserved.
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ECB Reserves Euro Basis Swaps
Outlook: Europe Remains in Focus
12© 2012 FMR LLC. All rights reserved
For institutional client use only
• Europe is in a mild recession: Further austerity and contagion fears could increase market stress
• Liquidity effect from LTROs: European banks borrowed €529 billion in 3-year loans
• Bank deposit trends: A widespread bank run in the troubled European countries would cause major challenges in financing outflows.
• Sovereign debt refinancing: Spain and Italy likely to maintain market access but higher rates pressure budget deficits
• EU summits: There will likely be several emergency summits set up at short notice over the next several months. It’s not clear what those might achieve.
• French and Greek elections: Represents an important political development in Europe
• Exogenous shocks: Oil price increase or China slowdown could weaken economic activity
For institutional client use only
The Impact from Regulatory Reform
Old Rule 2a-7 Current Rule 2a-7 Estimated Yield Impact (bp)1
Implementation Date
Daily Liquidity – Taxable None 10% 0 May 28, 2010
Daily Liquidity – Municipal None None None None
Weekly Liquidity – Taxable None 30% (9 – 12) May 28, 2010
Weekly Liquidity –Municipal None 30% 0 May 28, 2010
Weighted Average Maturity (WAM) 90-days 60-days (0 – 8) June 30, 2010
Weighted Average Life (WAL) None 120-days (1 – 3) June 30, 2010
Illiquid Securities 10% 5% (1 – 3) May 28, 2010
Second Tier Securities5%
1% per issuer397-day limit
3% 0.5% per issuer
45-day limit(0 – 3) May 28, 2010
Total (11 – 29)
For institutional client use only
1Estimated yield impacts represent annual reductions in annual fund yield in a normalized rate environment over time. Reductions show impact to fund that is running at or near current Rule 2a-7 limits. Yield impacts differ among rated, institutional, and retail funds. Sources: FMR and Securities and Exchange Commission
14© 2012 FMR LLC. All rights reserved
Regulatory Changes Impacting Portfolio Management
MMF reform options under consideration
• Floating NAV
• Capital Contribution Options– Government Insurance / Guarantee– Mandatory Adviser Capital– Shareholder Capital– Investor Capital
• Redemption Restriction Options – Holdback on All Transactions– Triggered Redemption Fee– Minimum Account Balance
• Hybrid Industry Option– NAV Buffer + Trigger-based Redemption Fee
© 2012 FMR LLC. All rights reserved
For institutional client use only15
For institutional client use only
Survival Guide: Robust Investment Process
Identify and Measure Relevant Risk Parameters
17 For institutional client use only
Investment Risks Significance of Risk Exposure Benefits of a Multi-Dimensional Research Process
Credit Risk Principal depreciation through price volatility or default
Non-reliance on Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organizations
Interest Rate Risk Principal depreciation through rising interest rates and widening spreads Quantitative Risk Management Framework
Liquidity Risk Lost access to cash holdings Thorough analysis of underlying liquidity provisions
Structural Risk Complex documentation contains embedded risks Dedicated legal team with specialized securities knowledge
© 2012 FMR LLC. All rights reserved
For Institutional Use Only
Bottom Up Foundation• Fundamental Analysis
– Fundamental foundation– Relative value assessment
• Quantitative Analysis– Proprietary risk modeling– Security and portfolio level
• Structured Analysis– Capital structure analysis– Complements fundamentals
• Value-Added Trading– Relative value assessment– Across curve and structure– Macro trends/technicals
Top Down Perspectives• Macroeconomic Inputs
– Federal Reserve expectations– Sovereign landscape– Tail risk/scenario modeling
• Sector– Basis call: transparency– Fundamental and relative value
• Yield Curve– Breakeven analysis– Slope and volatility– Relative value opportunities
• Interest Rate– Duration views– Volatility perspectives
201101-8963For institutional client use only© 2012 FMR LLC. All rights reserved
18
ConsistentRisk-Adjusted
Alpha
Objective:Consistent
Risk-AdjustedAlpha
Bottom-up, fundamental Investment platform complemented by top-down inputs, results in a robust and durable process.
Multi-Dimensional Investment Approach
Liquidity Management Priorities Change over time
19© 2012 FMR LLC. All rights reserved
For institutional client use only
Sample Continuum of Hypothetical SMA Solutions
20 For Institutional Client Use Only
• All returns represent hypothetical annualized yields gross of as of April 13, 2012 and do not reflect the deduction of any fees and expenses which would reduce returns.
• The above referenced chart does not represent any current Fidelity or Pyramisstrategy.
For illustrative purposes only.Securities represent money market instruments and securities with durations of less than 3 years. Hypothetical portfolio data has inherent limitations and may not reflect the effect that any material market or economic factors may have had on Pyramis' use of the models. Hypothetical performance of a model is no guarantee of future results.
Hypothetical Gross Yield: 0.57% 0.77% 0.96% 1.12% 1.35%
Instrument Type
Commercial Paper / CDs - 1M Fixed 0.25% 30% 20% 10% 5% 0%Commercial Paper / CDs - 3M Fixed 0.52% 30% 20% 10% 5% 5%Commercial Paper / CDs - 6M Fixed 0.77% 20% 20% 15% 5% 5%Industrial Notes - 1Y Fixed 0.70% 5% 10% 10% 10% 5%Industrial Notes - 2Y Fixed 1.25% 0% 0% 5% 10% 10%Financial Notes - 1Y Fixed 1.38% 5% 10% 5% 10% 10%Financial Notes - 2Y Fixed 2.05% 0% 0% 5% 10% 20%Financial Notes - 1Y Floating 0.80% 10% 10% 15% 20% 15%Financial Notes - 2Y Floating 1.14% 0% 5% 20% 20% 20%Financial Notes - 3Y Floating 2.26% 0% 5% 5% 5% 10%
Total Allocation 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%Hypothetical Gross Yield 0.57% 0.77% 0.96% 1.12% 1.35%
OAD 59 76 102 138 164Spread Duration 73 131 211 254 299
Gross Yield as of 4/13/12 Target Asset Allocation
98.0%98.2%98.4%98.6%98.8%99.0%99.2%99.4%99.6%99.8%100.0%
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52
98.0%98.2%98.4%98.6%98.8%99.0%99.2%99.4%99.6%99.8%100.0%
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52
2121
Risk Management: Rate and Spread Scenario ImpactFED TIGHTENS 25 BP INCREMENTS;
SPREADS WIDEN 50 BPSFED TIGHTENS 50 BP INCREMENTS;
SPREADS WIDEN 100 BPS
Portfolio 1 Portfolio 2 Portfolio 3 Portfolio 4 Portfolio 5
Hypothetical portfolio data has inherent limitations and may not reflect the effect that any material market or economic factors may have had on Pyramis’ use of the models. The performance shown does not relate to any Fidelity or Pyramis strategy. Hypothetical performance of a model is no guarantee of future results. For Illustrative purposes only.
Boo
k Y
ield
Theo
retic
al V
alue
Theo
retic
al V
alue
Boo
k Y
ield
Week Number Week Number
Week NumberWeek Number
For Institutional Client Use Only
0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 520.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52
Income Potential Outweighs Volatility to Principal
22
Hypothetical portfolio data has inherent limitations and may not reflect the effect that any material market or economic factors may have had on Pyramis’ use of the models. The performance shown does not relate to any Fidelity or Pyramis strategy. Hypothetical performance of a model is no guarantee of future results. For Illustrative purposes only.For Institutional Client Use Only
Hypothetical Impact of Instantaneous Shocks
23 For Institutional Client Use Only
Hypothetical portfolio data has inherent limitations and may not reflect the effect that any material market or economic factors may have had on Pyramis' use of the models. The performance shown does not relate to any Fidelity or Pyramis strategy.Hypothetical performance of a model is no guarantee of future resultsFor Illustrative purposes only
0.2%
0.1%
0.4%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
Portfolio 1
Largest Interest Rate Shock: Dec 1980: Rates Rise 228 bps in one weekInterest Rate Shock: 1994: Rates Rise 128 bps over 3 monthsLargest Spread Widening Sep 2008: Spreads Widen 192 bps in one week
0.3%
0.1%
0.7%
Portfolio 2
0.7%
0.3%
1.3%
Portfolio 4
0.8%
0.4%
1.6%
Portfolio 5
0.5%
0.2%
1.1%
Portfolio 3
Summarizing the Survival Guide
• A currently vetted investment policy is the foundation of robust liquidity management
• It is critical to understand both asset and liability dynamics for accurate cashflow forecasting
• Investment goals and objectives are independent of current market conditions– Capital Preservation– Liquidity– Returns
• Cash Management is a time consuming, resource intensive multi-dimensional process– Develop a Risk vs. Return profile– Segment cash into appropriate allocations (operating, strategic, reserves)– Understand all aspects of the investible universe– Perform timely portfolio review
• Establish relationships with asset managers– Align investment priorities of asset manager with your investment goals– Investment process must be time-tested– State of the art risk management and compliance engines are key– Investment strategy communicated through monthly commentary, white papers, statements
• Continuously monitor and update your guidelines
24© 2012 FMR LLC. All rights reserved
For institutional client use only
Important InformationNot NCUA or NCUSIF insured. May lose value. No credit union guarantee.
The views expressed in this statement reflect those of the portfolio manager only through the end of the period of the report as stated on the cover and do not necessarily represent the views of Fidelity or any other person in the Fidelity organization. Any such views are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions and Fidelity disclaims any responsibility to update such views. These views may not be relied on as investment advice and, because investment decisions for a Fidelity fund are based on numerous factors, may not be relied on as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any Fidelity fund.
Diversification does not ensure a profit or guarantee against a loss.
An investment in a money market fund is not insured or guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or any other government agency. Although the fund seeks to preserve the value of your investment at $1.00 per share, it is possible to lose money by investing in the fund. Interest rate increases can cause the price of money market securities to decrease.
Before investing, have your client consider the funds’ investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Have your client read it carefully.
For Institutional Investor Use only.
Fidelity Investments & Pyramid Design is a registered service mark of FMR LLC.
Fidelity Investments Institutional Services Company, Inc., 100 Salem Street, Smithfield, RI 02917
613474.1.0Not FDIC Insured. May lost value. No bank guarantee.
For institutional client use only
© 2012 FMR LLC. All rights reserved25