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Contents1. Introduction
2. Definition of Risk
3. Integrated Risk Assessment
4. A New Risk Categorization
5. A Formal Model
6. A Project
7. Conclusion
September 25, 2007 [email protected] 2/26
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Australian Pattern for Pattern for Emergency Risk Management (ERM)
September 25, 2007 [email protected] 4/26
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September 25, 2007 [email protected] 5/26
Canadian Pattern for Risk ManagementCanadian Pattern for Risk Management
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September 25, 2007 [email protected] 6/26
A Trapezoid Framework for A Trapezoid Framework for Integrated Risk ManagementIntegrated Risk Management
Risk Consciousness
Quantifying Analysis
Root
Body
Optimizing Decision Making Action
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September 25, 2007 [email protected] 7/26
Model(s)
Risk: Probability, Possibility
Destruction, Vulnerability
Loss, ……
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September 25, 2007 [email protected] 8/26
State Administration of Natural Disaster Risk Governance
Department of Disaster Policy and Law
Department of Disaster Information Sharing
Department of Disaster Prevention Techniques
Department of Emergency Action
Department of Disaster Preparedness
Department of Emergency Response
Department of Disaster Relief
Department of Disaster Insurance
State Council(Central Government)
Bureau of Natural Disaster Risk Governance at different
administrative level: Province, District, County
Local Governments
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2. Definition of Risk
September 25, 2007 [email protected] 9/26
SafetyLaws Infrastructure
RiskNatural Disaster
Accident CatastrophePublic Health
Social Safety
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Risk in English The word risk stems from the early Italian
word, riscare, which meant ‘to dare’. This means that risk denotes a conscious selection of an alternative, rather than being a question of fate.
The use of the term does vary considerably in connection to the discipline or industry to which it is applied.
September 25, 2007 [email protected] 10/26
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Risk ? There is no widely accepted definition of risk
Webster Dictionary --- Possibility of loss or injury Insurance --- Possibility of loss Natural Disaster --- Exposure of people to a hazardous event There are more than 22 definitions of riskhttp://www.ehs.unu.edu/moodle/mod/glossary/view.php?
id=1&mode=letter&hook=R&sortkey=&sortorder=&fullsearch=0&page=-1
September 25, 2007 [email protected] 11/26
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Risk in Chinese The concept of risk in Chinese is
represented in two Chinese characters:
``feng'' and ``xian,''
wind danger
风 险
September 25, 2007 [email protected] 12/26
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September 25, 2007 [email protected] 13/26
WindWindstone
hook
Fig.1. A stone-hook-wind system (SHW-system) showing risk.
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Scene: something seen by a viewer
Adverse: harmful or unfavorable
A scene must be described with a system
consisting of time, site and objects.
The association would be measured with a
metric space (such as probability).
Incident would be scaled with a magnitude
(such as loss).
September 25, 2007 [email protected] 14/26
Risk is a scene in the future associated with Risk is a scene in the future associated with some adverse incident.some adverse incident.
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In general, we consider integrated risk assessment as a holistic approach to risk assessment.
Integrated risk management to a holistic approach to risk management.
i.e., integrated risk assessment = integrated “risk assessment”
integrated risk management = integrated “risk management”
Assess risks by using all resources and techniques
Manage risks in collaboration with all corresponding departments and agencies
September 25, 2007 [email protected] 15/26
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The basic principle of integrated risk assessment
Firstly, experts identify all risk sources in the system and provide the possibility values to show when, where and how a risk source impacts the system.
Then, the system analysts construct the relationship between the risk sources and adverse incidents according to natural laws or statistical experiences.
Finally, the integrated risk analysts infer the possibility values for the occurrence of adverse incidents based on the results from the risk source experts and the system analysts.
September 25, 2007 [email protected] 16/26
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September 25, 2007 [email protected] 17/26
Probability distributions of the risk sources (Firstly)
Relationships between the risk sources and adverse incidents (Then)
The supercube for inferring the risk (Finally)
Fig.2. Illustration of the basic principle of integrated risk assessment, where the curves would be complicated surface .
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integrated “risk assessment”
September 25, 2007 [email protected] 18/26
“integrated risk” assessment”
The basic principle of integrated risk assessment
Integrated risk is defined as any scene in the future associated with integrated adverse incident.
Simple integrated risk risk sources are mutually independent
e.g. intergrated risk related to earthquake and flood
Complicated integrated risk risk sources are intersecting
e.g. intergrated risk related to a disaster chain
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September 25, 2007 [email protected] 19/26
4. A New Risk Categorization
Starr’ s Categorization (1977) Real risk --- eventually determined by future
circumstances when they fully develop; Statistical risk --- determined by currently available
data, typically measured actuarially for insurance premium and other purposes;
Predicted risk --- predicted analytically from system models structured from historical studies;
Perceived risk --- intuitively seen by individuals.
IRGC’ s Categorization (2005) Simple risk --- there is a clear cause and effect ; Complexity risk --- difficultly identifying and quantifying
causal links between a multitude of potential causal agents and specific observed effects in a system or a system
component. Uncertainty risk --- human knowledge is always incomplete
and selective and thus contingent on uncertain assumptions, assertions and predictions;
Ambiguity risk --- giving rise to several meaningful and legitimate interpretations of accepted risk assessments results.
Huang’ s Categorization (2007) Pseudo risk --- we are able to accurately predict by
using system models and currently available data; Probability risk --- we are able to statistically predict by
using probability models and a lot of data; Fuzzy risk --- we are able to approximately infer by
using fuzzy logic and incomplete information; Uncertain risk --- impossible to predict or infer by using
any existing approach.
A uncertain risk might become a pseudo risk , tomorrow!
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September 25, 2007 [email protected] 20/26
H, family of functions describing risk sources
e.g., p ( X , Y , Z,… ) D, family of functions describing dose-
response relationships
e.g., f ( X , Y , Z,… ) =0 o, family of composition rules
e.g., “+”, “X”, “Max-Min”
Risk: R =HoD
5. A Formal Modelwww.jalali-hse.blogfa.com
September 25, 2007 [email protected] 21/26
R =HoDR =HoD
Max-MinMax-Min
Fuzzy risk represented by a fuzzy matrixFuzzy risk represented by a fuzzy matrix
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September 25, 2007 [email protected] 22/26
6. A Project Program category:
National Key Technology Research and Development Program
Project:
Technology of Integrated Risk Assessment
Funded by:
Ministry of Science and Technology
Implementation time: 2006 - 2010
Serving for:
Chinese Insurance industry
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Flowchart of integrated risk classification and assessment technology
September 25, 2007 [email protected] 23/26
Acceptable risk rules
Risk frequency analysis Risk loss analysis
Measures to reduce risk
Simple risk
Complexity-induced risk
Uncertainty-induced risk
Ambiguity-induced risk
Risk assessment indicesRisk assessment indices
Risk assessment modelsRisk assessment models
Risk assessment modelRisk assessment model
Model validationModel validation
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September 25, 2007 [email protected] 24/26
It is a serious problem to answer “What is risk?” when we are talking that we are in a risk society.
In China, “risk” is a concept connected to “wind” and “danger.”
A new definition:
Risk is a scene in the future associated with some adverse incident.
The basic principle of integrated risk assessment:
Inferring a risk based on the results from the risk source experts and the system analysts.
A New Risk Categorization:
Pseudo risk, probability risk, fuzzy risk, uncertain risk
7. Conclusionwww.jalali-hse.blogfa.com
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