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The Accessible Arctic
As the Arctic loses its sea ice cover, it becomes ever
more accessible, bringing both opportunities and potential
conflicts between stakeholders
9-10 December 2008
Lawson W. Brigham, PhD
Vice Chair, PAME & Chair, AMSA U.S. Arctic Research Commission ~
Anchorage
I. Globalization, Climate Change & Governance Implications for a New Maritime Arctic
DNV ~ Sandvika
DNV Workshop on Ice Scenarios
Major Topics
Arctic marine geography & sea Ice
commercial arctic marine use
Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment
(AMSA) of the Arctic Council
Future scenarios & ‘ wild card’ issues
Major challenges ~ Arctic states
Northern
Sea Route
Northwest
Passage
CHALLENGES &
RISKS
Choke
Point
Draft
Draft Sea Ice
Sea
Ice
Cold Climate
Ice-Free Ops
MULTIPLE
ROUTES &
MODES Intra-Arctic
Route
Arctic
Marine
Geography
Central Arctic Ocean Route
(2100 nm)
Today’s Arctic Marine Use
Today’s Arctic Marine Use
High Grade
Iron Ore
Zinc & Coal
Nickel &
Copper
•Hard Minerals
Today’s Arctic Marine Use
High Grade
Iron Ore
Zinc & Coal
Nickel &
Copper
•Hard Minerals
•Marine Tourism
Today’s Arctic Marine Use
High Grade
Iron Ore??
Zinc & Coal
Nickel &
Copper
•Hard Minerals
•Marine Tourism
•Key Fisheries
Today’s Arctic Marine Use
High Grade
Iron Ore??
Zinc & Coal
Nickel &
Copper
•Hard Minerals
•Marine Tourism
•Key Fisheries
•Oil & Gas
Today’s Arctic Marine Use
High Grade
Iron Ore??
•Hard Minerals
•Marine Tourism
•Key Fisheries
•Oil & Gas
•Summer Sealift
Zinc & Coal
Nickel &
Copper
Today’s Arctic Marine Use
High Grade
Iron Ore??
•Hard Minerals
•Marine Tourism
•Key Fisheries
•Oil & Gas
•Summer Sealift
•Exploration/Science
Zinc & Coal
Nickel &
Copper
The Maritime
Arctic of Today
Modes of Arctic
Marine Transport
• -Destinational &
Regional
• -Trans-Arctic
• -Trans-Arctic with
Transshipment
• -Intra-Arctic
Snapshot of
Summer 2004
Traffic
~ 5475 Ships
8 NP
3-Ship
Drilling
27 Cruise Ships
(53~2005)
(150~2006)
(200+ ~ 2007)
6 Research
Ships 107
Voyages
5 NWP
Transits
0 NSR
Transits
165 Voyages
52 Ships
Hundreds of
Transits
High Intensity
Fishing
High Intensity
Fishing
Red Dog
Mine ~23
Noril’sk
Complex
25 May 1987 ~ North Pole
Soviet Nuclear Icebreaker Sibir
‘A Walk Around the World!’
Icebreaker Transits to the North Pole &
Trans-Arctic Voyages (1977-2008):
• 77 Transits to the North Pole (65 Russia, 5 Sweden, 3 USA, 2 Germany, 1 Canada, 1 Norway) • Single Non-summer NP Voyage (Sibir Voyage May-June 1987)
• 33 Ship Transits to the NP in 2004-2008 • 7 Trans-Arctic Voyages (1991, 1994, 1996, 2005)
‘Clear Evidence of
Central Arctic Ocean
Navigation’
Scenarios Effort ~ Key AMSA Uncertainties
• Stable legal climate
• Radical change in global trade
dynamics
• Climate change is more disruptive
sooner
• Safety of other routes
• Socio-economic impact of global
weather changes
• Oil prices (55-60 to 100-150 USD?)
• Major Arctic shipping disasters**
• Limited windows of operation
(economics)
• New Ice Age ~ Atlantic Changes
• Maritime insurance industry
• China and Japan become Arctic
maritime nations
• Transit fees
• Conflict between indigenous &
commercial use
• Arctic enforcers (police force)
• Escalation of Arctic maritime
disputes
• Shift to nuclear energy
• New resource discovery
•World trade patterns
• Catastrophic loss of Suez or
Panama Canals
• Global agreements on
construction rules and standards.
“Stricken cruise ship off Antarctic evacuated” MSNBC- 11/23/07
unstable
& ad-hoc
stable &
rules-based
less demand
more demand
Arctic Rush Arctic Saga
Polar Lows Polar Preserve
GOVERNANCE
RE
SO
UR
CE
S
&
TR
AD
E
High demand and unstable
governance set the stage for
an economic ‘rush’ for Arctic
wealth and resources.
High demand and stable
governance lead to a healthy
rate of development, includes
concern for preservation of
Arctic ecosystems & cultures.
Low demand and unstable
governance bring a murky
and under-developed future
for the Arctic.
Low demand & stable
governance slow development
in the region while introducing
an extensive eco-preserve with
stringent “no-shipping zones”.
AMSA/GBN Scenarios Workshops ~ April & July 2007
The Future of Arctic Marine Navigation in 2050
Scenarios on the Future of
Arctic Marine Navigation in 2050
Winter
Summer
Fall
Spring
Possible Arctic Shipping Routes
‘Wild Card’ Issue 1 ~ Multiple Ocean Use
Management & Enforcement
Arctic Ocean
Choke Point
Bowhead Whale Migrations & Arctic Marine Operations
22 April 2002
New Scientist
22 July 2006
‘Wild Card’ Issue 2 ~ Arctic Ship Emissions
& Uncertain Regulation
New northern
passages could
significantly boost
levels of low-lying
ozone as ship
exhausts pump
pollutants into the
pristine environment.
Emissions of nitrogen
oxides and carbon
monoxide from ships
could triple ozone
levels, making them
comparable to those in
industrialized regions
today.
Icebreaking (Double Acting) Container Ship
Norilskiy Nickel in the Kara Sea
March 2006
‘Wild Card’ Issue 3 ~ Technology
Future Convoy Requirements?
Aker Arctic
Technology
Aker Arctic Technology
Today’s Maritime Arctic
(200 NM Exclusive Economic Zone) Hypothetical - Future Maritime Arctic
(After UNCLOS Article 76)
The ILULISSAT Declaration
Conference of 5 Coastal States Bordering on the Arctic Ocean (Canada,
Denmark & Greenland, Norway, Russia, USA)
27-29 May 2008 ~ Ilulissat, Greenland
LOS/UNCLOS Provides ‘Solid Foundation’
‘We therefore see no need to develop a new comprehensive international
legal regime to govern the Arctic Ocean.’
(Macnab 2000) (Macnab 2000)
‘Wild Card’ Issue 4 ~ Continuing Challenge
U.S. Geological Survey Report ~ July 2008
–13% Undiscovered Oil
–30% Undiscovered Natural Gas
–20% Undiscovered Natural Gas Liquids
“Circum-Arctic Resource
Appraisal: Estimates of
Undiscovered Oil and Gas North
of the Arctic Circle”
http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2008/3049/
‘Wild Card’ Issue 5A ~ New Resource Discoveries
‘Wild Card’ Issue 5B ~ New Resource Discoveries
USGS (2008)
Probability of Presence of
Undiscovered Oil and/or Gas
Fields
Access to natural resources
http://arcticoceanforever.com/the-risks/
Major Challenges ~ Arctic States 1 - Uncertain International Regulations & Standards
2 - Policy Responses Required with Rapid Arctic Natural
Resource Development
3 - Lack of Adequate Maritime Infrastructure &
Environmental Monitoring
4 - Concerns ~ Levels of Arctic Maritime Training
5 - Risks ~ Year-to-Year Sea-Ice Variability & Winter Ice
Navigation Across 2100 nm
6 - Complexity of Potential Environmental Impacts ~ Noise,
Ship Emissions, Discharges
7 - Protecting the Central Arctic Ocean (PSSA?)
8 - Tracking & Surveillance of Arctic Marine Activity
CERTAINTY ~ Need for Greater Maritime
Cooperation of the Arctic States ~ Engagement
with the Global Maritime Industry
The Maritime Arctic of the Future?
Improving
Coastal Access
2007 to
2030+
Summer
2025 ?
Summer
2040 ?
Fishing
Fishing
?
Summer
2030 ?
Tourism?
++ Tourism
NWP?
The Three Pillars of AMSA
Enhancing
Arctic Marine
Safety
Protecting
Arctic People
and the
Environment
Building the
Arctic Marine
Infrastructure
Arctic Oil and Gas Resources
DNV Workshop: Scenarios for the Arctic
Steven Sawhill
9 December 2008
Discovered resources of the Arctic
AMAP 2007
Distribution of known resources
AMAP 2007
USGS Circum-Arctic Resource
Appraisal Quantitative appraisal of
undiscovered resources
• North of the Arctic
Circle
• With ≥ 10% chance of an
oil or gas deposit
≥ 50 MMBOE
• Completed Summer
2008
Source: USGS Fact Sheet 2008-3049
USGS Circum-Arctic Resource
Assessment Undiscovered oil
90 BBO
Source: USGS Fact Sheet 2008-3049
USGS Circum-Arctic Resource
Assessment Undiscovered oil
More than 70%
thought to occur
in 5 provinces
Source: USGS Fact Sheet 2008-3049
30 BBO
10 BBO
7 BBO
9 BBO 7 BBO
USGS Circum-Arctic Resource
Assessment Undiscovered gas
1670 TCFG
Source: USGS Fact Sheet 2008-3049
USGS Circum-Arctic Resource
Assessment Undiscovered gas
More than 70%
thought to occur
in 3 provinces
Source: USGS Fact Sheet 2008-3049
651 TCFG
318 TCFG
221 TCFG
Future prospects for
development
Arctic Climate Impact Assessment 2004
Photo © 2008 Aker Arctic Technology.
Used with permission. All rights reserved.
US Energy Information Agency 2008
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Conclusions The Arctic holds
significant amounts of
oil & gas
Estimates of
undiscovered oil & gas
are increasing
Climate change and new
technologies are
improving access
Volatile energy prices will
affect incentive to
develop Arctic oil & gas
The Arctic is a politically
stable energy source
region, but politics
constrain access to
many areas Source: USGS Fact Sheet 2008-3049
