Thayer Regional Outlook Forum Power Point Slides

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Positioning ASEAN

between

Global Powers

Professor Carlyle A. Thayer

14th Re ional Outlook Forum

January 5, 2012



China’s military build up

‐

U.S. regional engagement

ASEAN‐centric security cooperation



’



C i n a s mi itary

ui

up

and South China Sea



Naval

Exercises

China

Sea

2010‐11



Strategic Implications



Woody

Island

Fier Cross Reef

Mischief

Reef



‐

•

• Focus on transnational security issues

• Support for CBMs but not Preventive

• Lukewarm support combined naval

exerc ses• Regional security treaty stillborn



• ‘ ’

2007

• Lack of transparency in military build up

•

• Assertiveness in South China Sea

• Self ‐help

•



3. U.S. Regional Engagement

Anderson Air Force Base Guam



U M c gan

USS Florida

Three Nuclear Submarines Surface in July 2010 –Pusan, South Korea; Subic Bay, Philippines and

,



‐

•

– ZOPFAN (1971)

–

– SEANWFZ (1995)

• s centra ty n secur ty a a rs

– ASEAN Regional Forum

– East Asia

Summit

– ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus





ASEAN‐centric Security Cooperation

ASEAN ARF ASEAN +

ADMM

• ADSOM ISM MS

ADMM Plus

• EWG MS

• Service Chiefs

APSC

• AMF AMF Plus?



5. Positioning ASEAN etween





•

transmitted to

Southeast

Asia

’

unilateral action by a major power

• ASEAN ea ers nee to issue po itica gui ance

to their Defence Ministers

• ASEAN Defence Ministers

need

to

direct

subordinates to address maritime security



Southeast Asia’s Maritime Domain





• ‐

China a misplaced

priority

and non‐claimants

• T is approac prevents ASEAN rom a opting

a common policy

• China able

to

play

on

differences

and

delay

• Code of Conduct for SCS too restrictive



Code of Conduct for Southeast Asia’s

Maritime Domain

•

– Security of

maritime

domain

is

indivisible

–

South China Sea

• Enhance unity and cohesion to promote

reg ona

autonomy an

s centra ty

• COC Southeast Asia’s Maritime Domain



•

• Claims to

sovereignty

and

sovereign

rights

• Framewor pen ing sett ement

•Without

prejudice

• Reject threat or use of force

•

• Reinforce ASEAN corporate and legal identity



•

with international

law

– Islands –v– features and rocks

• nego a on a s agree o ar ra on

• Demilitarise features in South China Sea

• Coast Guard

to

provide

security



•

• Disputes settlement

mechanism

– n er o t ca ecur ty ommun ty

Council

• a ogue par ners an o er s a e o ers

should agree to abide by COC SEA

• ASEAN should

streamline

regional

architecture

and exert leadership on maritime security



Global Powers

Professor Carlyle A. Thayer

14th Regional Outlook

Forum

Januar 5 2012

Documents

Thayer Regional Outlook Forum Power Point Slides