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8/6/2019 Thayer China’s New Wave of Aggressive Assertiveness Power Point Slides
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/thayer-chinas-new-wave-of-aggressive-assertiveness-power-point-slides 1/12
China’s New Wave of Aggressive
Asser3veness in the South China Sea
Professor Carl Thayer
Mari3me Security in the South China Sea
CSIS Washington, DC July 20‐21, 2011
8/6/2019 Thayer China’s New Wave of Aggressive Assertiveness Power Point Slides
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Introduc3on
• Late 2010 cau3ous op3mism
• 2011 aggressive asser3veness
• Driver 1 – sovereignty – U‐shaped map
• Driver 2 hydrocarbon resources
– Oil and gas explora3on by Philippines and Vietnam
8/6/2019 Thayer China’s New Wave of Aggressive Assertiveness Power Point Slides
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Recent Developments
China‐Malaysia
• Malaysia’s Deputy Prime Minister visits Beijing
– Agrees to bilateral discussions
• Premier Wen Jiabao visits Kuala Lumpur
– Pre‐departure interview
• Bilateral discussions and joint development stressed
– South China Sea treated lightly
8/6/2019 Thayer China’s New Wave of Aggressive Assertiveness Power Point Slides
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Recent Developments
China‐Philippines
• President Aquino lobbies Indonesia & Brunei
• Visit by Chinese Defence Minister
• Territorial Defence
• Exchange of protests
• Zone of Peace, Freedom, Friendship and
Coopera3on
8/6/2019 Thayer China’s New Wave of Aggressive Assertiveness Power Point Slides
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China‐Philippines
Six‐seven major incidents
• Feb 25 – shoo3ng at Filipino fishermen
• Mar 2 – oil explora3on ship accosted
• May 6 & 21 – intrusions into Philippines
waters
• May 19 – intrusion by uniden3fied aircra\
• May 24 – construc3on materials & buoy
8/6/2019 Thayer China’s New Wave of Aggressive Assertiveness Power Point Slides
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8/6/2019 Thayer China’s New Wave of Aggressive Assertiveness Power Point Slides
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China‐Vietnam
• 5 confiden3al bilateral discussions 2010
• 4 high‐level mee3ngs
– Special envoy to Beijing
– Visit by vice chair Central Military Commission
– Government boundary nego3a3ons
– Defence ministers meet at Shangri‐la Dialogue
• Unilateral Fishing Ban (May 16‐Aug 1)
8/6/2019 Thayer China’s New Wave of Aggressive Assertiveness Power Point Slides
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China‐Vietnam
• 1st cable cung incident May 26
• 2nd cable cung incident June 9
• Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung on
“incontestable sovereignty”
• Live‐fire exercises
• An3‐China demonstra3ons
• Hacking aacks
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First Cable
Cung IncidentMay 26, 2011
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Shangri‐La Dialogue
• Keynote speech by Prime Minister Najib
• Defense Secretary Robert Gates
• Defense Minister General Liang Guanglie• Defence Minister General Phung Quang Thanh
• Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin
• Defence Minister Ahmad Zahid Hamidi
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Conclusion
• Security of South China Sea an interna3onal
issue
• Guidelines to implement the DOC work in
progress
• ASEAN’s role: ARF and EAS
• Coali3on of like‐minded states to provide
diploma3c support
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Conclusion
• U.S.‐Philippines Mutual Security Treaty
– Clarifica3on?
• Enhancing mari3me security capaci3es
– Philippines and Vietnam
• ASEAN Treaty on Conduct of Par3es in theSouth China Sea
– Open for accession by external states