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Temporal Investment of Adaptation and Mitigation
Presenter: Bruce A. McCarlWeiwei Wang
Department of Agricultural EconomicsTexas A&M University
April 6, 2011
OutlineIntroductionConceptual FrameworkTechnical PartConclusionFuture Work
Climate Change and Political Strategies• IPCC (2007) ”Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures
since the mid-20th century is very likely (>90%) due to the observed increase in anthropogenic (human emission caused) greenhouse gas concentrations.”
• The future will depend on the choices we make aboutDo little and live with it
Plan to adapt Mitigate Emissions
?
Background on Adaptation and Mitigation
Policy Responses
MITIGATION
GHG Sources and Sinks
Atmospheric Processes and Global Climate
Climate Change
ExposureInitial Impacts
Autonomous Adaptation
Residual Damages
Planned Adaptation
Vuln
erab
ilitie
s
Source:Richard J.T. Klein (2007) “Links between Adaptation to and Mitigation of Climate Change” 3rd Workshop, Bonn, Germany.
Policy DirectionsEconomic Considerations
Effective climate policy involves a portfolio of adaptation and mitigation
Source IPCC Fouth Assessment Report WGII Ch 18
Investment AllocationEconomic Considerations
Activity Consequences
Consumption Current Utility
Conventional investment Future production and consumption benefits
Adaptation investment Avoided climate change damages to production now and possibly in future- more consumption
Mitigation investment Avoided extent of climate change with lessened to production in future- more consumption
Importance of Adaptation
• More societal robustness to climate change• Climate change cannot be totally avoided• Planned adaptation is likely to be more effective and
less costly than last-minute, emergency adaptation Droughts, heatwaves, increased hurricane intensity and new
disease vectors required forward-looking investment
• Immediate benefit can be gained from better adaptation to climate variability and extreme events
• Adaptation has a productive life
Limits and Barrier to Adaptation• There are significant knowledge gaps for adaptation
Absence of measurable outcomes or indicators
• Inability of natural systems to adapt to the rate and magnitude of climate change, as well as technological, financial, cognitive, behavioral, social and cultural constraints.
• Most adaptation involves private actions, public arrangements and national & international policies
• Funds competition• Uncertain returns
Links between adaptation and mitigation
• Trade-offs and synergies Not a zero-sum game Combined effects that both limit GHG emissions and reduce adverse
damages
• Timing of investments Substitute or complement
• Identifying the optimal mix of no action, mitigation and adaptation – significant policy challenge
Research Needs
• What are the relative contributions of adaptation and mitigation to climate change damage reduction?
• How mainstreaming climate policy would be most effective and cost-efficient?
• What are the social optimal allocations of investment in adaptation and mitigation over time?
Conceptual Framework
Optimal Control ModelModel I mitigation only
)()(Minm
mIMcqTCD
)(.. mgcts
TCD: Total climate change damages
q : losses as a function of realized climate change (c)
m: mitigation effort
IM(m) : mitigation cost
g(m) : climate change realized given mitigation effort m
Marginal Cost
Marginal Benefit
Abatement Level
Cost $
Model II Adaptation + Mitigation
)(..
)()(),(Minam,
mgcts
aIAmIMacqTCDA
a : the level of adaptation effortq(c,a): losses of realized climate change and the degree of adaptation effort IA(a): the cost of investment in adaptation
Literature Review on modeling adaptation and mitigation
Literature base rather small, yet very diverse and inconsistent in its conclusions
• PAGE (Policy Analysis of the Greenhouse Effect) model (Hope et al, 1993)– Explicitly treat adaptation as a control variable – modeling adaptation as a binary choice
• FUND (The Climate Framework of Uncertainty, Negotiation and Distribution) (Tol, 2007) – Adaptation is very important and have to be traded off with mitigation– adaptation cost is limited to coastal protection
Literature Review..• AD-DICE (Adaptation in Dynamic Integrated model of Climate
Change Economics) (de Bruin, 2009) – Adaptation is a powerful option in the first 100 years while mitigation
does so afterwards – adaptation costs are “instantaneous” rather than persistent and based
on coastal protection
• FEEM-RICE (Bosello, 2008)– Planned adaptation and mitigation are strategic complements – Calibration of adaptation costs was based on 1990’s surveys
• AD-WITCH (Adaptation- World Induced Technical Change Hybrid) (Bosello, 2010)– Mitigation started immediately while adaptation was delayed until
somewhere later when gross damages were higher– Follow the same calibration as what did in the extension of FEEM-RICE
Methodology • Explicitly adding the adaptation module into DICE
model• Modeling the stock nature of adaptation
investment• Incorporating a more broadly based damage
function that is from the economy wide assessment of adaptation cost from Parry et al (2009)
Technical Part
DICE (2007) – AD-DICE (2009) – AD-DICE++ (2011)
Rest is drawn from Wang, W.W., and B.A. McCarl, "Temporal Investment in Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation", Draft Paper TAMU, 2011.
Adding explicit adaptation to DICE• Improving adaptation features
• Calibration of adaptation cost function
10IA(t)SA(t)β)(11)SA(t 10
221/
)1(1
10),1(*),(
TETEYGD
eA
AAGDAGDRD
ttt
rSAt
tttttt
t
investment adaptation ofstock :SA
investment adaptation annual offlow :IA
rate ondepreciati annual :0.1β where
output net total: Y
damages eunavoidabl of percentage :α
adaptation of level resulting normalized :A
damages Gross :GD
damages residual : RDwhere
Calibration of Adaptation Cost Function• Fit a function reflective of a statement in Parry et
al. (2009)
Figure 1. Portrayal of relationship between adaptation investment , residual damages and unavoidable damages
Figure 2. Fitted line
7/10,2.0
8.02.01 )7/(10
r
eA sat
• Add adaptation investment to DICE • Assume that decisions on the levels of adaptation and mitigation are
separable but compete for funds with consumption and traditional investment
ttttt IAIMICQ
Where Q: net output of goods and services net of climate change damages after abatement C: consumption I: “traditional” investment of production capital IM: mitigation investment IA: adaptation investment
Results and DiscussionsEffects of Planned Adaptation
Figure 1: Optimal mitigation investment with and without planned adaptation allowed
Figure 2: Benefits in terms of damages reduction from mitigation and adaptation in AD-DICE++ model
Effects of Adaptation
Figure 3. Total damages with and without planned adaptation
Figure 4. Gross world productivity with and without planned adaptation
Optimal Time Path of Adaptation and Mitigation Investment
Reasons for Differences:• The different mechanism of adaptation and mitigation
• The different timing of results from adaptation and mitigation
Figure 5. Optimal investment of adaptation and mitigation in the model with both allowed
Figure 6. Temporal investment distributions between adaptation and mitigation
Sensitivity AnalysisFigure 7. Adaptation investment decreases with the unavoidable damages
Figure 8.Stock of adaption investment decreases with the depreciation rates
Concluding Comments• Well planned adaptation is an economically effective
complement to mitigation and an important current policy option
• Adaptation investment tackles the short run reduction of damages in the first 250 years while mitigation dominates from thereon
• Effective political strategy is the immediate role for adaptation with a longer run transition to mitigation as the damages from GHG concentrations increases
Limitations
• We estimate the relative costs and benefits at a highly aggregated level
• There is no single optimal mix of adaptation and mitigation as this depends on local conditions, uncertainties and different preferences and values in society
• Research on the links between adaptation and mitigation needs to beyond economic and integrated assessment modeling
Future Work
• Modeling direct interaction between adaptation and mitigation in terms of their specific effectiveness and trade-offs
• Identifying the optimal strategy mix considering regional differences and climate change uncertainties
• Implementing extreme events and other risks
Thank you very much for your attention.