What is the decision making issue?

Bruce A. McCarlDistinguished Professor of Agricultural Economics

Texas A&M University mccarl@tamu.edu http://agecon2.tamu.edu/people/faculty/mccarl-bruce/

Energy Climate Change Adaptation

Climate Change Mitigation Climate Change Effects

Reading Assignment

IPCC WGII ar5 SPM pages 4-11 https://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/images/uploads/WG2AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf

http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg3/ipcc_wg3_ar5_summary-for-policymakers.pdf

IPCC WGIII ar5 SPM pages 4-9

http://www.ipcc-wg2.gov/AR4/website/ts.pdf

IPCC WGII ar4 TS pages 70-76

IPCC SREX pages 4-7http://ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/report/

What have you seen so far

Hotter

Global Surface Temperature, with ten warmest years highlighted in dark red http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/

Rising Seas

What have you seen so far

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/

GHGs

Projections this will continue

“Cumulative emissions of CO2 largely determine global mean surface warming by the late 21st century and beyond (see Figure SPM.10). Most aspects of climate change will persist for many centuries even if emissions of CO2 are stopped. This represents a substantial multi-century climate change commitment created by past, present and future emissions of CO2.”

IPCC AR5, WG1, SPM page 25 (my highlighting)

IPCC AR5, WG1-SPM, Fig. 8ab

GHGs

With disruptions

Do we care?

All of what you have seen is well and good but the issue is do we as a society do something about this?

In the late 1990s we chose not to undertake action because “more science” was needed

In 2001 we did not join Kyoto because it was “too expensive” and did not cover all emitters

So should we take action?

Economically action is justified when the benefits of taking action on the margin exceed the costs of that action

Wait for more information –do little and live with it

Plan to adapt

Try to reduce future changeMitigate emissions

Policy Alternatives

Defining some terms

Impacts or effectsImpacts: Effects on natural and human systems. In this report, the term impacts is used primarily to refer to the effects on natural and human systems of extreme weather and climate events and of climate change. Impacts generally refer to effects on lives, livelihoods, health, ecosystems, economies, societies, cultures, services, and infrastructure due to the interaction of climate changes or hazardous climate events occurring within a specific time period and the vulnerability of an exposed society or system. Impacts are also referred to as consequences and outcomes. The impacts of climate change on geophysical systems, including floods, droughts, nd sea level rise, are a subset of impacts called physical impacts.

Vulnerability: The propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected. Vulnerability encompasses a variety of concepts and elements including sensitivity or susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt.

Emissions

Anthropogenic emissions Emissions of greenhouse gases, aerosols, and precursors of a greenhouse gas or aerosol caused by human activities. These activities include the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, land use changes, livestock production, fertilization, waste management, and industrial processes.

GHGsGreenhouse gas (GHG) Greenhouse gases are those gaseous constituents of the atmosphere, both natural and anthropogenic, that absorb and emit radiation at specific wavelengths within the spectrum of terrestrial radiation emitted by the Earth’s surface, the atmosphere itself, and by clouds. This property causes the greenhouse effect. Water vapour (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4) and ozone (O3) are the primary greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere. Moreover, there are a number of entirely human-made greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, such as the halocarbons and other chlorine- and bromine-containing substances, dealt with under the Montreal Protocol. Beside CO2, N2O and CH4, the Kyoto Protocol deals with the greenhouse gases sulphur hexafluoride (SF6), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and perfluorocarbons (PFCs).

GWPGlobal Warming Potential (GWP)An index, based on radiative properties of greenhouse gases, measuring the radiative forcing following a pulse emission of a unit mass of a given greenhouse gas in the present-day atmosphere integrated over a chosen time horizon, relative to that of carbon dioxide.

The GWP represents the combined effect of the differing times these gases remain in the atmosphere and their relative effectiveness in causing radiative forcing. The Kyoto Protocol is based on GWPs from pulse emissions over a 100-year time frame. As for the Kyoto Protocol, this report uses GWP values derived from the IPCC Second Assessment Report: 21 for methane (CH4), 310 for nitrous dioxide (N2O), 1,300-11,700 for hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), 6500-9200 for perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and 23,900 for sulphurhexafluoride (SF6).

Mitigation

Mitigation (of climate change) (from IPCC WGIII Glossary)

A human intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases. This report also assesses human interventions to reduce the sources of other substances which may contribute directly or indirectly to limiting climate change, including, for example, the reduction of particulate matter emissions that can directly alter the radiation balance (e.g., black carbon) or measures that control emissions of carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, Volatile Organic Compounds and other pollutants that can alter the concentration of tropospheric ozone which has an indirect effect on the climate.

AdaptationAdaptation (to climate change) (from IPCC WGII Glossary)

The process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects. In human systems, adaptation seeks to moderate or avoid harm or exploit beneficial opportunities. In some natural systems, human intervention may facilitate adjustment to expected climate and its effects.

Incremental adaptation Adaptation actions where the centralaim is to maintain the essence and integrity of a system or process at a given scale.Transformational adaptation Adaptation that changes thefundamental attributes of a system in response to climate and its effects.

So what can we do

So What could we do?

Reactions to climate change basically consist of four directions: • Live with the effects – do little• Reduce future extent by limiting GHG net emissions - Mitigation• Alter the way we do things adapting so as to reduce the impact of

change - Adaptation• Monitor what is happening- Information

Last three compete with traditional investment

Monitoring Reducing Drivers

Ad

apt

McCarl, B.A., "Some Thoughts on Climate Change as an Agricultural Economic Issue", Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, vol 44 no 5, 299-305, 2012.

Needed Funds

Striking a Balance

ClimateMonitoringAdaptationMitigation

NonClimateConsumptionR&DInfrastructureEducation& Much more

• Inevitability of adaptation• Likely need adaptation and monitoring • Attention to mitigation as we grow

Policy Challenge• Most effects in future

• Mitigation and adaptation costs now

• Exact nature of effects and effectiveness of adaptation and mitigation are uncertain + controversial

• Unilateral action on mitigation not effective but collective no action means nothing gets done

• Resource and investment competition between current production/R&D and needs for mitigation/adaptation

So grand challenge is

How much to invest now in mitigation and adaptation in interest of future parties at likely cost of current?

So what is the Economic issueExternality is the uncompensated impact of one group’s actions on the well-being of bystanders.

If effect on bystanders is adverse, a negative externality.If effect is beneficial, a positive externality.

Fossil fuel emissions can be a negative externality.

Market failure Because buyers and sellers neglect the external effects of their actions when deciding how much to demand or supply, the market equilibrium is not efficient when there are externalities.

Income distribution - who gains/ who loses and where – high vs low latitudes

Intergenerational equity -- Bystanders are those damaged by warmer climate now and in future

Co-benefits some actions that can be undertaken also clean up air and water and enhance farm incomes and damage trade. How do we consider

Policy issue - Do we act now to benefit those in future

Some other effects you Have not seen

Degree of climate change What is happening up to now – Potential Precipitation

Rainfall is increasing (ocean evaporation)

Source IPCC WGI 2013

CCD is frequency of max number of consecutive dry days HY-INT reflects change in length of drought or extreme precip events

Rainfall has become more concentrated and Texas again has such areas

Degree of climate change What is happening up to now -- Precipitation

AR5 WGI chapter 2 figure 2.33

R95 is rain from top 5% wettest days SDII is average daily precipitation intensity

http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/data/set/ndh-drought-hazard-frequency-distribution

Global Drought Hazard Frequency and Distribution, v1 (1980 – 2000)

ELEANOR J. BURKE, SIMON J. BROWN, AND NIKOLAOS CHRISTIDIS , Modeling the Recent Evolution of Global Drought and Projections for the Twenty-First Century with the Hadley Centre Climate Model

Texas has seen increase

Observed Degree of climate change

Doubled frequency

Source : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

IPCC Fifth Assessment Report WGI - SPM http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/

Degree of climate change What is happening up to now – Snow and Ocean

Degree of climate change What is happening up to now – Glaciers

Water supply source, Boulder CO, Arapaho Glacier, Colorado.

Glaciers are retreating almost everywhere around the world — including the Alps,

Himalayas, Andes, Rockies, Alaska and Africa.

http://nsidc.org/rocs/adopt-a-glacier/arapaho.html

Aug 2013.

Observed Degree of climate change What is happening up to now -- Disasters

From Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation

Disasters expensive especially in Asia

Disasters increasing

Why is this happening?

IPCC (1995) “The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate.”

IPCC (2001) “Most of the warming of the past 50 years is likely (>66%) to be attributable to human activities.”

IPCC (2007) ”Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely (>90%) due to the observed increase in anthropogenic (human caused) greenhouse gas concentrations.”

IPCC (2013) It is extremely likely (95–100% probability) that human activities caused more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010.

Why are we seeing climate change?

Source : U.S. National Assessment/ http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/images/Greenhouse-s.jpg.

Some gases, like carbon dioxide (CO), trap heat in the atmosphere by absorbing longwave radiation while letting the Sun's energy pass through. The transparent roof and walls of a greenhouse allow in the sunlight while keeping in the heat. Since these gases act similarly in the atmosphere, we call them greenhouse gases.

Degree of climate change Why is this happening

Pre industrial - 275 Counting Non CO2

1985 - 345 this almost hits 4802015 - 400

http://co2now.org/

Why are we seeing climate change?

http://geosci.uchicago.edu/~archer/cgimodels/radiation.html

Radiation Escaping

Satellite measurement of radiation escaping the earths atmosphere relative to the spectral radiance of a back body (perfect energy absorber) at various temperatures (different colored smooth lines)

Max Planck

What is Projected?

Hotter

Degree of climate change - What is projected

Projections are for a drying region

Precipitation varies with northern gains, subtropic drying

Source IPCC 2013, WGI http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/

Soil Moisture

Runoff

Precipitation

Projections are for altered river flow

What you see is nonstationarity: the future is not like the past Less water in Pakistan region

Milly P.C.D., Betancourt J., Falkenmark M., Hirsch R.M., Kudzewicz Z.W., Lettenmaier D.P., and Stouffer R.J. Climate Change: Stationarity is Dead: Whither Water Management? Science 2008;319:573-74

Projections are for sea level rise

Source IPCC 2013, WGI http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/

Possible Damage – Coastal

http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/mg19526141.600-huge-sea-level-rises-are-coming--unless-we-act-now.html

If small glaciers and polar ice caps on the margins of Greenland and the Antarctic Peninsula melt, the projected rise in sea level will be around 0.5 m.

Melting of the Greenland ice sheet would produce 7.2 m of sea-level rise

Melting of the Antarctic ice sheet would produce 61.1 m of sea level rise.

Alarmist – precipitation projected to increase in Antarctica

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_level_rise#Greenland_contribution

What is projected - sea level rise

http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/potential_impact_of_sea_level_rise_on_bangladesh

IPCC WG1, SPM, 2013

Sea Level and hurricanesAdapt

Structural protectionAbandonment

Live with it – Coastal

http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/content/ResourceCenterPublicationsSLRMapsIndex.html

http://www.glo.state.tx.us/coastal/erosion/reimbursement/pdf/Surfside_Beach_historic_shorelines.pdf

• Very likely that heat waves will be more intense, more frequent and longer lasting

• Precipitation generally increases but with general decreases in the subtropics

• Precipitation intensity is projected to increase but there would be longer periods between rainfall events.

• Tendency for drying of mid-continent during summer, indicating a greater risk of droughts in those regions.

• Sea level projected to rise 1999 and 2099 by 0.18 to 0.59 m.• Likely increase in hurricane peak wind intensities - an

increase in the numbers of the most intense.• Fewer mid-latitude storms- poleward shift of storm tracks• Atlantic Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC)

– Gulf Stream will slow down

Degree of climate change - What is projected

Current developments are disruptive of some activities

Projections on water, temperature, severe weather and hurricanes are worrisome for agriculture and other sectors. Sea level also.

Possibility of Mitigating emissions will influence electricity generation and petroleum industries that are large in Texas.

Texas is quite vulnerable

Who emits

Who Emits

                                                                                              

         

Who Emits

Why is this happening - Source of GHGs

http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/globalghg.html

Emissions share

Fossil fuels bigDeforestation+ag = 30%

Why is this happening - Emissions growing

Emissions growinghttp://www.epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/globalghg.html

Global Greenhouse Gas Data

1971

1973

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Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia

Africa

Other Americas

Other Asia

Middle East

China

OECD Asia Oceania

OECD Europe

United States

Canada

http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/overview_2009.html

Most of the growth is in areas that are not todays biggest emittersChallenge there is better life but without emissions increase

Degree of climate change – Texas and GHGs

0.0

100.0200.0

300.0400.0

500.0

600.0700.0

800.0

AL

AR

AZ

CA

CO

CT

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DE

FL

GA

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IL

IN

KS

KY

LA

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MT

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NJ

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OK

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PA

RI

SC

SD

TN

TX

UT

VA

VT

WA

WI

WV

WY

US EIA, http://www.eia.doe.gov/environment.html

2003 State by State Energy related CO2 emissions -- Texas wins

US EPA, http://www.eia.doe.gov/environment.html

Emissions growingMost emissions from energy

Size of Potential Emissions

Coal5,000 to 8,000 PgC

Biomass~500 PgC

Soils~1,500 PgC

Atmosphere 800 PgC (2004)

Oil~270 PgC

N. Gas~260 PgC

Unconventional Fossil Fuels15,000 to 40,000 PgC

Source Jae Edmonds, Joint Global Change Research Institute at the University of Maryland

Inevitability ofAdaptation

1971

1976

1981

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0

5000

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Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia

Africa

Other Americas Other Asia

Middle East China

OECD Asia Oceania OECD Europe

United States Canada

http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/overview_2009.html

Inevitability of Adaptation Global emissions do not show signs of reductions –

Particularly in developing areas

Global Greenhouse Gas Data

1971

1973

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Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia

Africa

Other Americas

Other Asia

Middle East

China

OECD Asia Oceania

OECD Europe

United States

Canada

http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/overview_2009.html

Most of the growth is in areas that are not todays biggest emittersChallenge there is better life but without emissions increase

1-

Source: IEA WEO 2007 and Socolow presentation at Americas Climate Choices

Inevitability of AdaptationChallenge of stabilization is huge

Per-capita fossil-fuel CO2 emissions, 2005World emissions: 27 billion tons CO2

STABILIZATION

AVERAGE TODAY

US needs to drop to levels of todays lowest emitters

“Stabilization”: 1 ton CO2/yr per capita

It is not sufficient to limit emissions in the prosperous parts of the world and allow the less fortunate to catch up. Such an outcome would overwhelm the planet.

The emissions of the future rich must eventually equal the emissions of today’s poor, …

…not the other way around.

Socolow presentation at Americas Climate Choices

Why Adapt - Inevitability

Stabilizationlevel

(ppm CO2-eq)

Global mean temp. increase at equilibrium

(ºC)

Year CO2 needs to peak

Year CO2 emissions

back at 2000 level

Reduction in 2050 CO2 emissions

compared to 2000

445 – 490 2.0 – 2.4 2000 - 2015 2000- 2030 -85 to -50

490 – 535 2.4 – 2.8 2000 - 2020 2000- 2040 -60 to -30

535 – 590 2.8 – 3.2 2010 - 2030 2020- 2060 -30 to +5

590 – 710 3.2 – 4.0 2020 - 2060 2050- 2100 +10 to +60

710 – 855 4.0 – 4.9 2050 - 2080 +25 to +85

855 – 1130 4.9 – 6.1 2060 - 2090 +90 to +140

Characteristics of stabilization scenarios

IPCC WGIII Table SPM.5: Characteristics of post-TAR stabilization scenarios WG3 [Table TS 2, 3.10], SPM p.23

56

Inevitability of AdaptationDynamics, and Mitigation Effectiveness

4°

2°

Inevitable amount   

Era 1 Era 2

57

Scenarios• Today showing risks under current climate. • Era one - 2040 with inevitable change of

1°C• Era two – 2°C 2100 with substantial

greenhouse gas emission mitigation• Era two – 4°C 2100 with limited

mitigation activities.4°

2°

Inevitable amount

   

Era 1 Era 2

Greenhouse Gas Forcing and Climate Change

Lagged time between action and response

Inevitability of climate change

Slow mitigation action

Why Adapt

Types of Adaptation Actions

Adaptation can be “natural” or “autonomous” or “planned.”

Natural adaptations are actions in ecosystem stimulated by species reacting to climateAutonomous adaptations are actions taken voluntarily by decision-makers (such as farmers or city leaders)Planned adaptations are interventions by governments to address needs judged unlikely to be met by autonomous actions

Public sector may play important roles in all cases.• Support autonomous adaptation by providing information,

shaping market conditions and developing technologies• Act directly by developing strategies, providing resources, and

carrying out projects (infrastructure development).• Influence natural adaptation by managing the unmanaged

Agrilife scientists are in the public sector group

Means to AdaptInvestment to facilitate adaptation•Research•Extension•Capital investment

Ag Adaptation•Irrigation•Drought resistant varieties•Tolerant breeds and varieties•Crop and livestock mix•Tree rotation age•AbandonmentMcCarl, B.A., Adaptation Options for Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, A Report to the UNFCCC Secretariat Financial and Technical Support

Division, 2007. http://unfccc.int/files/cooperation_and_support/financial_mechanism/application/pdf/mccarl.pdf

ObservedAdaptation

Natural Adaptation

147 miles

Corn

IL

183 miles

MO

NE

KS

173 miles

IL

IA

MO

100 miles

Corn

Soybeans

Wheat

Autonomous actionsProduction Weighted Centroid 1950-2010

• Shifts have already happened• Greater yield has transport implications - wheat yields 44 bu/acre - corn yields 165 bu/acre• More demands for transport and grain

movement in the north

Mitigation

Mitigative ActionsReduce emissions

Capture and destroySwitch fuel, Nat. Gas, Biofuel, Nuclear, HydrogenAlter consumption Increase energy efficiencyChange production

Increase sequestrationCapture/store- Oceans, Mines, AquifersBiological - Forest, Soils

Geoengineer Solar rad. mgt –deflect sunlight, increase reflectivity

CO2 removal, biochar, Air capture, Ocean nourishment including iron

MitigationReducing drivers

Water conservationLower water demandLimiting greenhouse gas emissions

Ag items• Bioenergy• More efficient water application• Methane control for Rice• Altered cattle feeding• Manure lagoon covering• Less tillage• Grasslands conversion• Less water intensive crops

Non agEnergy conservationAlternative energy Nuclear, Natural GasTechnologyCCS

McCarl, B.A., and U.A. Schneider, "US Agriculture's Role in a Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation World: An Economic Perspective", Review of Agricultural Economics, 22(1), 134-159, 2000.

Fri, R., M. Brown, D. Arent, A. Carlson, M. Carter, L. Clarke, F. de la Chesnaye, G. Eads, G. Giuliano, A. Hoffman, R.O. Keohane, L. Lutzenhiser, B.A. McCarl, M.C. McFarland, M.D. Nichols, E.S. Rubin, T. Tietenberg, J. Trainham, L. Geller, A. Crane, T. Menzies, and S. Freeland, America's Climate Choices Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change, National Academy Report, The National Academies Press, Washington, D. C, 2010.

How Incent MitigationVoluntaryCarbon pricing system

cap and tradetaxTax high emitting activities or fossil fuelsSubsidize low emitting activities or fuelsIncrease energy efficiency. Increase use of low GHG-emitting electricity generation optionsrenewable energy sources.improved transmission infrastructure, offering long-term stability in financial incentives encouraging private research, development, and deployment testing and demonstration of new-generation nuclear powerDevelop and demonstrate carbon capture and storageAdvance low GHG-emitting transportation options. vehicle efficiency,energy efficient modes of passenger and freight transport, andadvancing low-GHG fuels (such as cellulosic ethanol).Accelerate retirement, retrofit or replacement of high emissions

infrastructure. Create new technology choicesFri, R., M. Brown, D. Arent, A. Carlson, M. Carter, L. Clarke, F. de la Chesnaye, G. Eads, G. Giuliano, A. Hoffman, R.O. Keohane, L. Lutzenhiser, B.A. McCarl, M.C. McFarland, M.D.

Nichols, E.S. Rubin, T. Tietenberg, J. Trainham, L. Geller, A. Crane, T. Menzies, and S. Freeland, America's Climate Choices Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change, National Academy Report, The National Academies Press, Washington, D. C, 2010.

Greenhouse Gas Forcing and Climate ChangeAs above

Lagged time between action and responseCompliance with International AgreementsDomestic Policy

Bush Rose Garden an 18 percent reduction in emissions intensity between now and 2012 - will allow actual emissions to increase 12 percent.

International attitudes toward US emission levels Need for cheap emission offsets Linkage to other goals for agriculture and environmental impacts Potential emergence of a market Industry Attitudes

Why Mitigate

Societal Actions

So Where Does an Scientist Come In?Sorry economic bias here

Example issues

• What are effects/costs of climate change, now and in future?• What Adaptation actions are possible and what are best

(those having best cost benefit results in reducing impact of change)

• What Mitigation actions are possible and best (most effective in reducing the extent of climate change)

• How can we determine who/what gains, who/what loses and how do we adapt

• How do we configure measurement and monitoring (best system for finding out what is occurring and where)

• How can we predict what private and public actions will do to climate change extent and effects plus how that will that affect the ecosystem, economy and social groups

AdaptationAg/Ecosystem items• R&D - Heat tolerant crops, Low water using crops, Pest and

disease resistance/treatment, Heat tolerant livestock breeds, Invasive species management

• Risk management assistance• Variability insurance

• Information Dissemination • Adaption practices• Altered enterprises

• Infrastructure investment - water control, application efficiency, migrated processing

• Managing previously unmanaged items – ecosystems, species migration, other?

Non Ag items (but ag related)• Non ag water conservation including landscape alteration• Land conservation

Aisabokhae, R.A., B.A. McCarl, and Y.W. Zhang, "Agricultural Adaptation: Needs, Findings and Effects", Handbook on Climate Change and Agriculture, Edited by Robert Mendelsohn and Ariel Dinar, Published by Edward Elgar, Northampton, MA, pp 327-341, 2011.

McCarl, B.A., Adaptation Options for Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, A Report to the UNFCCC Secretariat Financial and Technical Support Division, http://unfccc. int/files/cooperation_and_support/financial_mechanism/application/pdf/mccarl. pdf, 2007.

Effects MonitoringInformation Development

• Identify threats• Current• Projected

• Identify observed adaptations• Natural• Autonomous

• Identify adaptation alternatives and responses • Autonomous Adaption practices• Places where public assistance may be needed

• Threat and adaptation action assessment• Likely consequences• Unanticipated consequences

• Identify limits to adaptation

Bringing in MitigationAg and range and ecosystems small part of the issue

• Identify emission threats• Permafrost• Peat• Fires

• Identify feasible, cheap mitigation possibilities • For threats• For existing systems

• Identify ways to grow without growing emissions

• Identify ways to maintain and grow food production• Without more emissions• Protecting environment

• Incentive design

So now what - actions

Plan to adaptInevitability of future -20 Kyoto AccordsLong time to stabilize Uncertainty merits Precautionary action

Develop crop/livestock varieties and other adaptation actions

Pass a price signalGHG trading

Induced innovationHarnessing ingenuity

Reduce carbon footprintMoral suasionPlanning with GHGs in mindMobilize energy industry

Reduce adaptation barriersScience and technologyFunding and other