For analyst certification and important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix.

Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. 85 Broad Street New York, NY 10004 Tel: 800-221-5588 Fax: 212-667-8229

Technical Analysis

Ari H. Wald, CFA, CMT Technical Analysis (212) 667-5279 ari.wald@opco.com

August 13, 2016

Technical Analysis: Inflection Points

Sector Rotation Contributing to a Healthy Bull

Rotating sector performance is a reason we expect the S&P to sustain gains through the remainder of the year. A sector performs well then rests while leadership shifts to another area of the market. This is a characteristic of a healthy advance because each rotation registers incremental market gains and no sector trend becomes extended in such a way to threaten the broader advance. Today’s report shows that this is occurring by highlighting the narrowing spread between the best and worst performing S&P sector over the last 52 weeks.

Key Themes and Buy Ideas

NASDAQ-100 one of our favorite broad-market averages. We’re encouraged that the index is nearing a breakout above its 2000 peak and expect it to be leadership over the coming years. ETF idea: QQQ.

Big Bases for old Tech: Keeping with the NAZ-100, we think CSCO and INTC are attractive candidates to break above decade-long resistance.

Signs of a Turn for Private Equity: APO is the standout Buy idea based

on a breakout above Q1 resistance, and BX and KKR are in position to be next, in our view.

Best of the Brokers: While we’re generally skeptical of rate-sensitive

Financials, we see MS as relatively stronger than the Brokerage industry and believe it should be owned for exposure.

Time to Buy Europe: We anticipate the Europe Stoxx 50 to rally to

3500 over the coming months, and recommend buying US-listed growth stocks, like ASML and SAP. QIBs: Please inquire to receive our Europe monthly report which includes ratings for all of the stocks in the Europe Stoxx 50.

Video Briefing with Ari Wald

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August 13, 2016

Sector Rotation Contributing to a Healthy Bull

Rotating sector performance is a reason we expect the S&P to sustain gains through the remainder of the year. A sector performs well then rests while leadership shifts to another area of the market. This is a characteristic of a healthy advance because each rotation registers incremental market gains and no sector trend becomes extended in such a way to threaten the broader advance. The chart below shows that the rolling spread between the best and worst performing S&P sector over the last 52 weeks has fallen below 20% from a reading above 50% in August 2015; the current reading of 18% is picking up the spread between Utilities (14%) and Financials (-4%) and indicates that sector dispersion has declined (oscillating commodity prices and interest rates are the primary reason for these rotations, in our view). This is similar to the S&P’s broad-based advance between 2013 and 2014, and the subsequent warning in this prior period occurred when the spread rose sharply in late 2014 due to bifurcated market performance and weakness in the Energy sector specifically.

Source: Oppenheimer & Co. and Bloomberg.

1000

2000

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Jan-

14

Jul-1

4

Jan-

15

Jul-1

5

Jan-

16

Jul-1

6

Jan-

17

S&P 500 Sectors: Rolling spread betw Best & Worst 52-wk Performer (ls)

S&P 500 (rs) No sector is getting over heated or acting as a major drag

Sector dispersion rises when performance is bifurcated

Sector dispersion falls when markets rotate

Technical Analysis

3

August 13, 2016

Buyers on Vacation

From a trading basis, the good news is that market conditions are the strongest they’ve been in over two years and the risk of a volatile selloff, like Q3’15 or Q1’16, is below-average, based on our calculations. The bad news is that the seasonals are typically a headwind for the S&P into October, and volume into advancing shares has moderated in recent weeks. Add it up, and we think the next opportunity is to buy the first pullback, not try to time it, and we view July’s breakout at 2134 as support. More importantly, we want to own stocks now because we think it’s reasonable for the first pullback to develop at a higher level.

Source: Oppenheimer & Co. and Bloomberg.

S&P 500 Monitoring for buying demand to tick higher

Advancing

Declining

NYSE Volume 21-day avg.

2134

Technical Analysis

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August 13, 2016

NAZ-100 Leadership Resuming

The NASDAQ-100, and Technology stocks specifically, is one of our highest conviction calls because we’re still making the case that if this is a secular bull market, which we believe the evidence supports, then we think this area is best positioned to be leadership over the coming years as it retraces the stark underperformance suffered between 2000 and 2002. We’re encouraged that the NAZ-100 is nearing a breakout above its 2000 peak, and believe the index’s relative trend points to a resumption of leadership as well. ETF idea: QQQ.

Source: Oppenheimer & Co. and Bloomberg.

NASDAQ-100

Relative to the S&P 500

Two-year pause ahead of what we expect to be a major breakout

Technical Analysis

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August 13, 2016

Major Bases for Old Tech: CSCO, INTC

Within the NAZ-100, we’ll be watching if CSCO and INTC can follow in the footsteps of MSFT and become the next old Tech stock to break through a decade-long base. For CSCO, we’re watching $34 as the next important overheard test, and we’re watching $38 for INTC.

Source: Oppenheimer & Co. and Bloomberg.

Cisco Systems (CSCO): Buy

Intel (INTC): Buy

Breakout at $30 is now support

More work to do, meaning it could take time, but we like the top-down tailwinds from what we see as a relatively strong Semis & Semi Eqpt industry

Technical Analysis

6

August 13, 2016

Signs of a Turn for Private Equity: APO

We see early signs of a turn for the private equity industry. Followers of our research know we view stocks with low-momentum scores, like these private-equity companies, with skepticism. However, we’ve found that out-of-favor stocks with low-momentum scores make for attractive, yet speculative, trading ideas when a market advance broadens: our base case. APO is the standout Buy idea because it’s the only stock in this index that has rallied above Q1 resistance. Following a reversal of the stock’s two-year downtrend and breakout above $18, now support, we see upside to $21.50 over the coming months.

Source: Oppenheimer & Co. and Bloomberg.

Private Equity Managers Index w/ 200-day m.a.

Apollo Global Management (APO): Buy w/ 200-day m.a.

APO first in the index to break above Q1 resistance

Technical Analysis

7

August 13, 2016

Focus Turns to BX and KKR

We expect the focus to turn to BX and KKR following APO’s breakout above Q1 resistance. For BX, signs of a “double bottom” at $23 support indicate shares are in the process of basing, in our view, and we’re watching for a breakout above $29.60 resistance to confirm a bullish reversal. Above here, we see intermediate-term upside to $35.50. For KKR, we’re encouraged about similar signs of stabilization and we’re watching for a breakout above $15.20 to confirm a reversal in trend. Such a breakout would project toward $18.50, by our analysis. Click here for technical color on CG and OAK as well.

Source: Oppenheimer & Co. and Bloomberg.

BX and KKR are in position to break higher, in our view

Blackstone (BX): Buy w/ 200-day m.a.

KKR & Co (KKR): Buy w/ 200-day m.a.

Technical Analysis

8

August 13, 2016

Best of the Brokers: MS

Although we’re generally skeptical of rate-sensitive stocks in the Financials sector, we recommend buying MS for exposure to the Brokerage industry because we view the stock’s rally through its spring-time peak as a sign of relative strength; this is a feat the industry hasn’t yet been able to complete. The stock’s breakout above $28 is now support, and we see intermediate-term upside to $33.50.

Source: Oppenheimer & Co. and Bloomberg.

MS one of the first brokerage stocks to break above Q1 resistance

Broker Dealer Index w/ 200-day m.a.

Morgan Stanley (MS): Buy w/ 200-day m.a.

Technical Analysis

9

August 13, 2016

Time to Buy Europe

We recommend buying the Europe Stoxx 50 in anticipation of a rally to 3500 resistance over the coming months; a protective stop can be placed on a close below the August low at 2890 support. Key positives include 1) a successful test of February support, 2) “less-bad” internal breadth, and 3) our macro view that global breadth should broaden with the resumption of the S&P’s long-term advance. In other words, we’re becoming bullish on Europe because we’re even more bullish on the US. Speaking in terms of participation, we’re encouraged that the % of stocks above their 200-day m.a. made a higher low in July vs. February.

Source: Oppenheimer & Co. and Bloomberg.

Europe Stoxx 50 w/ 200-day m.a.

% of Stocks Above 200-day Mov Avg.

Internal breadth was “less bad” at the July low vs. February

Technical Analysis

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August 13, 2016

Buy Europe Growth: ASML, SAP

We’re encouraged that Europe Value is showing signs of bottoming though we prefer Europe Growth’s long-term structure (QIBs: please inquire to receive our Europe monthly report which includes these charts as well ratings for all of the stocks in the Europe Stoxx 50). Overall, we expect both growth and value to participate in a rising tape over the coming months, and recommend buying growth because we see a higher likelihood that the gains will be sustained over the long-run. US-listed Buy ideas include ASML and SAP because both are in position to break above multi-year resistance, in our view.

Source: Oppenheimer & Co. and Bloomberg.

ASML and SAP are attractive pre-breakout ideas

ASML Holding (ASML): Buy w/ 200-day m.a.

SAP SE (SAP): Buy w/ 200-day m.a.

Technical Analysis

11

August 13, 2016

Sector & Industry Snapshot: week of August 12

Our Sector & Industry Snapshot is a current and concise overview of the leaders and laggards throughout the equity market. As a proxy for trend and momentum, this tool screens a comprehensive list of broad market indexes, S&P sectors (relative to SPX), and all GICS level 3 industries relative to their respective sector. It is designed to be a differentiated performance table and an unbiased starting point to help generate trend-following or mean-reverting ideas.

RSI calculates the avg. gain / avg. loss in a security over a specified period; in this case 14 weeks. High readings (colored red; above 60) mark overbought and low readings (colored green; below 40) mark oversold. Neutral readings are colored yellow (between 40 and 60).

As a proxy for Trend we use the crossover between the 50-day and 200-day moving average. A positive percentage (colored green) indicates how far the 50D is above the 200D and a negative percentage (colored red) indicates how far the 50D is below the 200D.

Absolute Price Momentum RSI Trend Industry (GICL3) vs. Sector (GICL1) RSI Trend Industry (GICL3) vs. Sector (GICL1) RSI Trend

S&P 500 Index 66 4% Metals & Mining 62 14% Health Care Technology 70 2%

Gold spot 63 10% Containers & Packaging 59 -1% Health Care Equipment & Supplies 68 5%

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) 49 -1% Construction Materials 56 7% Life Sciences Tools & Services 58 1%

WTI Crude Oil future 47 13% Paper & Forest Products 52 -3% Biotechnology 49 -6%

10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield 42 -18% Chemicals 30 -3% Pharmaceuticals 43 1%

Health Care Providers & Services 41 0%

Relative to S&P 500 RSI Trend Industry (GICL3) vs. Sector (GICL1) RSI Trend

NASDAQ-100 62 -2% Building Products 71 4% Industry (GICL3) vs. Sector (GICL1) RSI Trend

S&P 400 Mid Cap 61 2% Machinery 63 3% Diversified Financial Services 61 3%

MSCI Emerging Markets 60 1% Construction & Engineering 60 4% Real Estate Investment Trusts 54 6%

Russell 2000 60 2% Electrical Equipment 54 0% Capital Markets 49 -4%

S&P 600 Small Cap 59 2% Commercial Services & Supplies 53 4% Real Estate Management & Dev 48 -8%

S&P 500 Equal Weight 54 1% Aerospace & Defense 52 1% Insurance 47 1%

S&P 100 Index 48 0% Road & Rail 51 2% Commercial Banks 45 -4%

Dow Jones Industrial Average 47 0% Air Freight & Logistics 47 0% Consumer Finance 42 -3%

MSCI EAFE Developed Markets 46 -5% Trading Companies & Distributors 46 -1% Thrifts & Mortgage Finance 37 -3%

Industrial Conglomerates 45 -1%

Relative to S&P 500 RSI Trend Professional Services 44 0% Industry (GICL3) vs. Sector (GICL1) RSI Trend

Technology 64 -1% Airlines 34 -16% Semis & Semi Equipment 64 4%

Telecom 52 5% Marine 29 -6% Internet Software & Services 56 -1%

Materials 52 2% Communications Equipment 51 3%

Industrials 51 1% Industry (GICL3) vs. Sector (GICL1) RSI Trend Software 51 0%

Health Care 50 0% Household Durables 70 4% Computers & Peripherals 49 -4%

Consumer Staples 45 1% Internet & Catalog Retail 66 6% Electronic Equipment 44 1%

Utilities 45 5% Distributors 60 6% IT Services 33 0%

Consumer Discretionary 44 -1% Multiline Retail 53 -1% S&P 1500 Telecom

Financials 44 -3% Speciality Retail 51 -1% Industry (GICL3) vs. Sector (GICL1) RSI Trend

Energy 43 3% Leisure Equipment & Products 49 1% Diversified Telecom 52 0%

Auto Components 47 -3% Wireless Telecom 47 -2%

Relative to S&P 500 RSI Trend Diversified Consumer Services 46 -5% S&P 1500 Utilities

Russell 2000 Value 62 2% Automobiles 42 -4% Industry (GICL3) vs. Sector (GICL1) RSI Trend

S&P High Yield Dividend 61 4% Media 42 0% Gas Utilities 57 0%

Russell 2000 Growth 57 1% Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure 40 -2% Electric Utilities 53 0%

Russell 1000 Growth 54 -1% Textiles, Apparel & Luxury 35 -5% Water Utilities 52 2%

S&P 500 High Beta 52 0% Independent Power Producers 47 5%

S&P 500 Low Volatility 48 2% Industry (GICL3) vs. Sector (GICL1) RSI Trend Multi-Utilities 44 0%

Russell 1000 Value 48 1% Food Products 66 4%

Household Products 56 0%

Industry (GICL3) vs. Sector (GICL1) RSI Trend Personal Products 46 -2%

Energy Equipment & Services 54 0% Food & Staples Retailing 45 -2% As of 12-Aug-16

Oil, Gas, & Consumable Fuels 46 0% Tobacco 43 2%

Beverages 41 -2%

S&P 1500 Health CareS&P 1500 Materials

S&P 1500 Industrials

S&P 1500 Consumer Discretionary

S&P 1500 Financials

S&P 1500 Technology

Key Market Indexes

Broad Market Equity Averages

S&P 500 Sectors

Styles

S&P 1500 Consumer Staples

S&P 1500 Energy

Source: Oppenheimer & Co. & Bloomberg.

Technical Analysis

12

August 13, 2016

Stock prices of companies/ETFs mentioned in this report (as of August 12, 2016)

Company Ticker

Primary

Exchange

Last

Price

POWERSHARES QQQ TRUST SERIES QQQ NASDAQ GM 117.0

ASML HOLDING NV-NY REG SHS ASML NASDAQ GS 110.7

OAKTREE CAPITAL GROUP LLC OAK New York 45.1

Technical Analysis

13

Disclosure AppendixImportant Disclosure Footnotes for Companies Mentioned in this Report that AreCovered by Oppenheimer & Co. Inc:Stock Prices as of August 13, 2016Apollo Global Management (APO - NYSE, $18.69, OUTPERFORM)The Blackstone Group (BX - NYSE, $27.90, OUTPERFORM)Carlyle Group L.P. (CG - NYSE, $16.06, OUTPERFORM)Cisco Systems (CSCO - NASDAQ, $30.95, OUTPERFORM)Intel Corp. (INTC - NASDAQ, $34.68, PERFORM)KKR & Co. (KKR - NYSE, $14.81, OUTPERFORM)Morgan Stanley (MS - NYSE, $29.38, PERFORM)Microsoft Corporation (MSFT - NASDAQ, $58.30, OUTPERFORM)SAP SE (SAP - NYSE, $87.72, OUTPERFORM)Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in makingtheir investment decision.

The published date of the recommendations contained in this report can be found by accessing disclosures(https://opco2.bluematrix.com/sellside/MAR.action).This report was produced at August 12, 2016 11:05 EDT and disseminated at August 13, 2016 08:00 EDT.

Analyst Certification - The author certifies that this investment strategy report accurately states his/herpersonal views about the subject securities, which are reflected in the substance of this investment report. Theauthor certifies that no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specificrecommendations or views contained in this investment strategy report.

This technical research report is provided by Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. ("OPCO"). Technical analysis is the study of priceand volume and the interpretation of trading patterns associated with such studies in an attempt to project future pricemovements. Technical analysis does not consider the fundamentals of the underlying corporate issuer and may offer aninvestment view that may appear inconsistent with other research generated by OPCO. This report does not constituteresearch regarding fundamental financial information. The investments discussed in this report may not be suitable for allinvestors.The overview in this report is provided for informational purposes and does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation tobuy, or a recommendation for any security or investment advisory services. The report is not intended to provide personalinvestment advice. Investors should use the analysis provided by this report as one input into formulating an investmentopinion and should consult with their Financial Advisor. Additional inputs should include, but are not limited to, the reviewof other research reports generated by OPCO, and looking at alternate analyses of the underlying corporate issuer.With respect to any specific company discussed herein, allow this report to serve as both an initiation and termination ofcoverage. Given the nature of technical research, such company may or may not appear in future reports for a variety oftechnical reasons.Securities and other financial instruments discussed in this report or recommended or sold by OPCO are not insuredby the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and are not deposits or obligations of any insured depository institution.Investments involve numerous risks including market risk, counterparty default risk and liquidity risk. Securities and otherfinancial investments at times may be difficult to value or sell. The value of financial instruments may fluctuate, and investorsmay lose their entire principal investment.

Potential Conflicts of Interest:Technical or strategic analysts employed by OPCO are compensated from revenues generated by the firm. OPCO generallyprohibits any analyst and any member of his or her household from executing trades in the securities of a company that such

Technical Analysis

14

analyst covers. Additionally, OPCO generally prohibits any analyst from serving as an officer, director or advisory boardmember of a company that such analyst covers. In addition to 1% (or more) ownership positions in covered companiesthat are required to be specifically disclosed in this report, OPCO may have a long positon of less than 1% or a shortposition or deals as principal in the securities discussed herein, related securities or in options, futures or other derivativeinstruments based thereon and makes a market in the securities discussed herein. Recipients of this report are advisedthat any or all of the foregoing arrangements, as well as more specific disclosures set forth below, may at times give riseto potential conflicts of interest.

Company Specific Disclosures

Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. makes a market in the securities of ASML, CG, CSCO, INTC, MSFT and QQQ.

The Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. analyst/associate(s) who covers this company also has a long position in BX,KKR and MS.

Additional Information Available

Please log on to http://www.opco.com or write to Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., 85 Broad Street, New York, NY 10004, Attention:Equity Research Department, Business Manager.

Other Disclosures

This report is issued and approved by OPCO, Oppenheimer Europe Ltd. and Oppenheimer Investments Asia Limited. Thisreport may be further distributed by OPCO for informational purposes only, to its institutional and retail investor clients.OPCO transacts business on all principal Exchanges and is a member of SIPC. This report does not constitute an offeror solicitation to buy or sell any securities discussed herein in any jurisdiction where such offer or solicitation would beprohibited. The securities mentioned in this report may not be suitable for all types of investors. This report does nottake into account the investment objectives, financial situation or specific needs of any particular client of OPCO or itsaffiliates. Recipients should consider this report as only a single factor in making an investment decision and should notrely solely on investment recommendations contained herein, if any, as a substitution for the exercise of independentjudgment of the merits and risks of investments. The analyst writing the report is not a person or company with actual,implied or apparent authority to act on behalf of any issuer mentioned in the report. Before making an investment decisionwith respect to any security recommended in this report, the recipient should consider whether such recommendation isappropriate given the recipient's particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. We recommend thatinvestors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourage investors to seek the advice of afinancial advisor. OPCO will not treat non-client recipients as its clients solely by virtue of their receiving this report. Pastperformance is not a guarantee of future results, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regardingfuture performance of any security mentioned in this report. The price of the securities mentioned in this report and theincome they produce may fluctuate and/or be adversely affected by exchange rates, and investors may realize losses oninvestments in such securities, including the loss of investment principal. OPCO accepts no liability for any loss arising fromthe use of information contained in this report. All information, opinions and statistical data contained in this report wereobtained or derived from public sources believed to be reliable, but OPCO does not represent that any such information,opinion or statistical data is accurate or complete (with the exception of information contained in the Disclosure Appendixsection of this report provided by OPCO or individual research analysts), and they should not be relied upon as such. Allestimates, opinions and recommendations expressed herein constitute judgments as of the date of this report and aresubject to change without notice. Nothing in this report constitutes legal, accounting or tax advice. Since the levels andbases of taxation can change, any reference in this report to the impact of taxation should not be construed as offering taxadvice on the tax consequences of investments. As with any investment having potential tax implications, clients shouldconsult with their own independent tax adviser. This report may provide addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to, Internet websites. OPCO has not reviewed the linked Internet web site of any third party and takes no responsibility for the contentsthereof. Each such address or hyperlink is provided solely for the recipient's convenience and information, and the contentof linked third party web sites is not in any way incorporated into this document. Recipients who choose to access suchthird-party web sites or follow such hyperlinks do so at their own risk.The S & P 500 Index is an unmanaged value-weighted index of 500 common stocks that is generally consideredrepresentative of the U.S. stock market. The S & P 500 index figures do not reflect any fees, expenses or taxes. Indices areunmanaged, hypothetical portfolios of securities that are often used as a benchmark in evaluating the relative performance

Technical Analysis

15

of a particular investment. Indices are unmanaged, hypothetical portfolios of securities that are often used as a benchmarkin evaluating the relative importance of a particular investment. An index should only be compared with a mandate thathas a similar investment objective. An index is not available for direct investment, and does not reflect any of the costsassociated with buying and selling individual securities or management fees. The Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market'sexpectations of 30-day volatility. It is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 index options.The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk.This research report may also be distributed in the UK and elsewhere throughout Europe, as third party research byOppenheimer Europe Ltd, which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). This research isfor information purposes only and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to purchase or sell investments orrelated financial instruments. This research is for distribution only to persons who are eligible counterparties or professionalclients. It is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons. In particular,this material is not for distribution to, and should not be relied upon by, retail clients, as defined under the rules of the FCA.Neither the FCA’s protection rules nor compensation scheme may be applied.This research report may be distributed in Hong Kong by Oppenheimer Investments Asia Limited (OIAL) to professionalinvestors, persons whose business involves the acquisition, disposal or holding of securities, whether as principal or agent.OIAL, an affiliate of Oppenheimer Asset Management Inc., is regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission for theconduct of dealing in securities, advising on securities, and advising on corporate finance. Professional investors in HongKong should contact researchasia@opco.com for all matters and queries relating to this report.The above is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as an offer, or solicitation, to deal in any ofthe investments mentioned herein. OPCO does not warrant the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of the informationand materials contained in this document and expressly disclaims liability for errors or omissions in such information andmaterials.Some of the information in this document may contain projections or other forward looking statements regarding futureevents or future financial performance of countries, markets or companies. These statements are only predictions andactual events or results may differ materially. The reader must make his/her own assessment of the relevance, accuracyand adequacy of the information contained in this document, and make such independent investigations, as he/she mayconsider necessary or appropriate for the purpose of such assessment.Any opinion or estimate contained in this document is made on a general basis and is not to be relied on by the reader asadvice. Neither OPCO nor any of its agents have given any consideration to nor have they made any investigation of theinvestment objectives, financial situation or particular need of the reader, any specific person or group of persons.Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly orindirectly as a result of the reader, any person or group of persons acting on any information, opinion or estimate containedin this document.OPCO reserves the right to make changes and corrections to its opinions expressed in this document at any time, withoutnotice.

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Technical Analysis