25
United States Department of Agriculture www.ers.usda.gov Electronic Outlook Report from the Economic Research Service Tobacco Data from USDA USDA will continue to be a source of information on tobacco. Current information from USDA on tobacco is available from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS): Crop Production http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1046 Includes data on tobacco acreage, yield, production, price, and value Agricultural Prices Summary http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1003 Includes average marketing year tobacco prices Census of Agriculture http://www.agcensus.usda.gov/, every 5 years Provides county-, State-, and national-level data on all aspects of agriculture Tobacco Outlook TBS-263 Oct. 24, 2007 List of Tables -------------- Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board. After this issue of Tobacco Outlook, ERS will no longer maintain an active tobacco market analysis program and will discontinue publication of Tobacco Outlook and Tobacco Yearbook. This action is prompted by the elimination of the Federal tobacco program and departure of the ERS tobacco analyst. ERS will continue, however, to include tobacco in ongoing research on farm structure, trade, and other key issues.

TBS-263 Oct. 24, 2007 Tobacco Outlook€¦ · 10/24/2007  · 5. Tobacco Outlook /TBS-263/October 24, 2007 . Economic Research Service, USDA . Table 2--Per capita consumption of tobacco

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    4

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: TBS-263 Oct. 24, 2007 Tobacco Outlook€¦ · 10/24/2007  · 5. Tobacco Outlook /TBS-263/October 24, 2007 . Economic Research Service, USDA . Table 2--Per capita consumption of tobacco

United StatesDepartmentof Agriculture

www.ers.usda.gov

Electronic Outlook Report from the Economic Research Service

Tobacco Data from USDA USDA will continue to be a source of information on tobacco. Current information from USDA on tobacco is available from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS): Crop Production http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1046 Includes data on tobacco acreage, yield, production, price, and value Agricultural Prices Summaryhttp://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1003 Includes average marketing year tobacco prices Census of Agriculture http://www.agcensus.usda.gov/, every 5 years Provides county-, State-, and national-level data on all aspects of agriculture

Tobacco Outlook

TBS-263 Oct. 24, 2007

List of Tables

--------------

Approved by the World Agricultural

Outlook Board.

After this issue of Tobacco Outlook, ERS will no longer maintain an active tobacco market analysis program and will discontinue publication of Tobacco Outlook and Tobacco Yearbook. This action is prompted by the elimination of the Federal tobacco program and departure of the ERS tobacco analyst. ERS will continue, however, to include tobacco in ongoing research on farm structure, trade, and other key issues.

ERS
Note
Revised issue with updated data.
Page 2: TBS-263 Oct. 24, 2007 Tobacco Outlook€¦ · 10/24/2007  · 5. Tobacco Outlook /TBS-263/October 24, 2007 . Economic Research Service, USDA . Table 2--Per capita consumption of tobacco

2 Tobacco Outlook/TBS-263/October 24, 2007

Economic Research Service, USDA

Historical analysis and data are available from: Economic Research Service, Tobacco Outlook (1995-2007) http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1389 Economic Research Service, tobacco data (1950-2007) http://www.ers.usda.gov/catalog/CatalogByTopicID.asp?pdt=1&son=TRUE&ptd=&sby=DATE&tid=659 Agricultural Marketing Service, tobacco market news reports http://www.ams.usda.gov/tob/mncs/ Historical information (1970-2004) on domestic tobacco markets Farm Service Agency, press releases http://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/newsReleases?area=newsroom&subject=landing&topic=ner&newstype=newsrel Historical announcements related to the tobacco program Foreign Agricultural Service, Tobacco: World Markets and Trade archives http://www.fas.usda.gov/tobacco_arc.asp Historical analysis and data (1996-2005) on U.S. tobacco leaf and product trade

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs and activities on the basis of race, color, national origin, age, disability, and, where applicable, sex, marital status, familial status, parental status, religion, sexual orientation, genetic information, political beliefs, reprisal, or because all or a part of an individual's income is derived from any public assistance program. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (Braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact USDA's TARGET Center at (202) 720-2600 (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimination write to USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, 1400 Independence Avenue, S.W., Washington, D.C. 20250-9410 or call (800) 795-3272 (voice) or (202) 720-6382 (TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer.

Page 3: TBS-263 Oct. 24, 2007 Tobacco Outlook€¦ · 10/24/2007  · 5. Tobacco Outlook /TBS-263/October 24, 2007 . Economic Research Service, USDA . Table 2--Per capita consumption of tobacco

List of Tables

3 Tobacco Outlook/TBS-263/October 24, 2007

Economic Research Service, USDA

Tables This report contains the same set of tables (most with updated information) that were in the September 2006 issue of Tobacco Outlook, http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/ers/TBS//2000s/2006/TBS-09-26-2006.pdf. Each table has a note at the bottom indicating the updated date, e.g., “Updated September 2007.” There are no plans for future updates at this time.

1. Cigarettes: U.S. output, removals, and consumption, 1996-2007 2. Per capita consumption of tobacco products in the United States (including overseas forces), 1996-2006

3. U.S. cigarette exports to leading destinations, 2006-2007 4. State cigarette tax increases, 2003-2007 5. Tobacco demand factors, 1996-2007 6. Wholesale premium brand cigarette price revisions, 1990-current 7. Wholesale nonbrand cigarette price revisions, 1990-current 8. Cigars and smoking tobacco: Output, removals, and consumption, 2002-

2007 9. Tobacco products: Output by category 1998-2007 10. Tobacco products: Domestic invoices by category, 1998-2007 11. U.S. imports of unmanufactured tobacco: Quantity and average, by kinds,

2006/2007 12. U.S. imports of unmanufactured tobacco for consumption and general

imports, principal categories, and countries of origin 2006/2007 (declared weight)

13. U.S. exports of unmanufactured tobacco by types and to principal importing countries, 2002-2007 (declared-weight)

14. U.S. exports of unmanufactured tobacco by types, to principal importing countries, crop years 2004/05-2006/07 (declared-weight)

15. All tobacco: Acreage, yield, and production, United States, 1965-2007 16. Flue-cured tobacco, types 11-14, and burley tobacco, type 31: Acreage,

yield, marketings, carryover, supply, disappearance, season average price, and price support operations, 1996-2007 (far-sales weight)

17. Southern Maryland tobacco, type 32: Acreage yield, production, carryover, supply, disappearance, season-average price, 1996-2007 (farm-sales weight)

18. Fire-cured tobacco, Kentucky-Tennessee types 22-23, and Virginia fire-cured, type 21: Acreage, yield, production, carryover, supply, stocks, disappearance, season-average price and price support operations, 1996-2007 (farm-sales weight)

19. Dark air-cured tobacco, types 35-36, and sun-cured tobacco, type 37: acreage, yield, production, carryover, supply, disappearance, season-average price, and price support operations, 1996-2007 (farm-sales weight)

20. Cigar tobacco, types 41-61: Domestic supplies, disappearance, and season-average prices, 1995-2007 (farm-sales weight)

21. Per capita consumption of tobacco products in the United States (including overseas forces), 1996-2006

22. Estimated leaf used for cigarettes by kinds of tobacco, 1960-2005

Page 4: TBS-263 Oct. 24, 2007 Tobacco Outlook€¦ · 10/24/2007  · 5. Tobacco Outlook /TBS-263/October 24, 2007 . Economic Research Service, USDA . Table 2--Per capita consumption of tobacco

4 Tobacco Outlook/TBS-263/October 24, 2007

Economic Research Service, USDA

Table 1--Cigarettes: U.S. output, removals, and consumption, 1996-2007Removals

Tax-exemptYear Miscellaneous Total U.S.

Output Taxable Total Exports shipments 1/ Imports Adjustment 2/ consumption 3/Billions

1996 754.5 486.0 261.0 243.9 17.1 2.8 18.9 487.01997 722.8 471.4 232.0 217.0 15.0 3.2 9.6 480.01998 679.7 457.9 212.5 201.3 11.2 4.3 8.4 465.01999 611.5 434.5 165.6 151.4 14.1 8.7 17.6 435.02000 594.1 422.5 153.6 148.3 5.4 11.3 10.0 430.02001 562.8 412.1 144.6 133.9 10.7 14.7 12.5 425.02002 532.0 395.2 136.3 127.4 2.6 20.8 3.3 415.02003 499.4 376.7 126.6 121.5 5.1 23.1 4.9 400.02004 493.5 375.6 114.3 118.6 3.2 22.7 6.0 388.02005 489.0 363.0 123.5 113.3 10.2 18.1 15.3 376.02006 484.0 364.4 116.6 119.0 2.5 16.3 13.8 372.02007 4/ 471.6 350.5 105.7 108.9 2.8 16.2 9.5 360.0

Year ending June 301996 748.3 487.0 254.7 239.5 15.2 2.6 16.8 488.01997 732.6 475.8 252.5 232.8 19.7 3.1 18.5 480.01998 713.2 465.2 229.0 215.5 13.5 3.5 17.2 465.01999 637.2 437.5 190.3 176.8 13.5 6.1 22.1 435.02000 605.3 432.3 159.3 142.6 16.7 9.9 28.9 430.02001 579.6 418.1 150.5 133.9 16.6 12.2 22.0 425.02002 556.5 408.3 140.0 132.1 7.9 17.9 14.1 420.02003 530.1 381.4 130.5 123.4 7.1 23.1 6.6 405.02004 492.6 373.1 121.2 122.6 2.4 22.7 10.2 388.02005 482.0 369.3 114.8 107.0 7.8 18.1 17.2 378.02006 494.4 366.1 123.6 117.6 6.0 17.0 16.1 373.02007 5/ 468.3 356.4 111.8 102.0 9.8 16.9 19.1 364.01/ Includes overseas armed forces, ship stores, small tax-exempt categories, and shipments to Puerto Ricoand other U.S. possessions. 2/ Inventory change and unaccounted for. 3/ Taxable removals, misc. shipments, adjustment, and imports.4/ Estimate. 5/ Data not available at time of publication.Sources: Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau, Monthly Statistical Release - Tobacco Products , Bureau of the Census, Reports EM545 and IM146.

Updated September 2007.

Page 5: TBS-263 Oct. 24, 2007 Tobacco Outlook€¦ · 10/24/2007  · 5. Tobacco Outlook /TBS-263/October 24, 2007 . Economic Research Service, USDA . Table 2--Per capita consumption of tobacco

5 Tobacco Outlook/TBS-263/October 24, 2007

Economic Research Service, USDA

Table 2--Per capita consumption of tobacco products in the United States (including overseas forces), 1996-2006Per capita Per capita 18 years and over Per male 18 years and over

Year 16 years All tobacco Large cigars Smoking Chewingand over Cigarettes 1/ Snuff 2/ products & cigarillos tobacco 2/ tobacco 2/

Number Number ------------- Pounds -------------- Number -------------- Pounds --------------

1996 2,355 2,445 4.1 0.31 4.83 31.9 0.52 0.12 0.631997 2,290 2,422 4.1 0.31 4.85 37.3 0.61 0.11 0.601998 2,190 2,275 3.6 0.31 4.32 37.1 0.61 0.12 0.531999 2,022 2,101 3.5 0.32 4.23 38.5 0.63 0.13 0.512000 1,974 2,049 3.4 0.33 4.10 38.0 0.62 0.13 0.482001 1,976 2,051 3.5 0.34 4.30 41.2 0.68 0.15 0.472002 1,909 1,982 3.4 0.34 4.16 41.8 0.68 0.16 0.432003 1,820 1,890 3.2 0.35 3.97 44.5 0.73 0.16 0.402004 1,747 1,814 3.1 0.36 3.87 47.9 0.79 0.15 0.372005 1,675 1,716 2.9 0.36 3.69 46.9 0.77 0.16 0.362006 3/ 1,650 1,691 2.9 0.38 3.69 47.8 0.78 0.15 0.371/ Unstemmed processing weight. 2/ Finished product weight. 3/ Preliminary

Sources: Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau, Monthly Statistical Release - Tobacco Products, Bureau of the Census, Population Estimates

http://www.census.gov/population/projections/nation/summary/.

Updated October 2006.

Table 3--U.S. cigarette exports to leading destinations, 2006-2007July 2006- January-June

Country June 2007 2006 2007 1/Billions

Japan 76.7 44.6 37.6Saudi Arabia 9.1 4.0 4.7Lebanon 3.5 2.2 1.9Israel 2.1 0.5 1.2Kuwait 2.1 0.8 1.1Hong Kong 1.8 0.7 0.8United Arab Emirates 1.7 0.9 0.9Singapore 0.6 0.2 *Qatar 0.5 0.2 0.3Taiwan 0.5 0.6 0.2Moroco 0.5 0.3 0.3Mexico 0.5 0.2 0.2Netherlands 0.4 0.3 0.2Oman 0.3 0.2 0.2Bahrain 0.3 0.2 0.2Canada 0.1 * 0.1Cyprus 0.1 * 0.1Philippines 0.1 * *Belgium 0.1 * 0.1Russia 0.1 0.1 *Bermuda 0.1 * *Other countries 0.8 2.2 0.2 Total 102.0 58.2 50.31/ Subject to revision. * Indicates less than 50-million pieces.Sources: Compiled from Bureau of the Census, Reports EM545 and IM146.

Updated September 2007.

Page 6: TBS-263 Oct. 24, 2007 Tobacco Outlook€¦ · 10/24/2007  · 5. Tobacco Outlook /TBS-263/October 24, 2007 . Economic Research Service, USDA . Table 2--Per capita consumption of tobacco

6 Tobacco Outlook/TBS-263/October 24, 2007

Economic Research Service, USDA

Table 4--State cigarette tax increases, 2003-07Per pack of 20 cigarettes

State: Increase New rate Effective dateDistrict of Columbia $0.35 $1.00 01/01/03Connecticut $0.40 $1.51 03/15/03South Dakota $0.20 $0.53 03/18/03Montana $0.52 $0.70 05/01/03

West Virginia $0.38 $0.55 05/01/03Idaho $0.29 $0.57 06/01/03Georgia $0.25 $0.37 07/01/03Hawaii $0.10 $1.30 07/01/03Kansas $0.09 $0.79 07/01/03New Jersey $0.55 $2.05 07/01/03New Mexico $0.70 $0.91 07/01/03Vermont $0.26 $1.19 07/01/03Wyoming $0.48 $0.60 07/01/03Delaware $0.31 $0.55 08/01/03Alabama $0.26 $0.43 05/06/04Hawaii $0.10 $1.40 07/01/04Michigan $0.75 $2.00 07/01/04New Jersey $0.35 $2.40 07/01/04Rhode Island $0.75 $2.46 07/01/04Virginia $0.18 $0.20 09/01/04Alaska $0.60 $1.60 01/01/05Montana $1.00 $1.70 01/01/05Oklahoma $0.80 $1.03 01/01/05Colorado $0.64 $0.84 01/01/05Kentucky $0.27 $0.30 06/01/05Maine $1.00 $2.00 07/01/05Ohio $0.70 $2.25 07/01/05Washington $0.60 $2.03 07/01/05New Hampshire $0.28 $0.80 07/01/05Virginia $0.10 $0.30 07/01/05Minnesota $1.00 $1.48 09/01/05North Carolina $0.25 $0.30 09/01/05Alaska $0.27 $1.87 01/01/06Vermont $0.60 $1.76 07/01/06Hawaii $0.20 $1.60 07/01/06New Jersey $0.18 $2.58 07/01/06North Carolina $0.05 $0.35 07/01/06Arizona $0.82 $2.00 01/01/07South Dakota $1.00 $1.53 01/01/07Texas $1.00 $1.41 01/01/07Iowa $1.00 $1.36 04/01/07Connecticut $0.49 $2.00 07/01/07Hawaii $0.20 $1.80 07/01/07Indiana $0.40 $0.99 07/01/07New Hampshire $0.28 $1.08 07/01/07Tennessee $0.42 $0.62 07/01/07Vermont $0.23 $1.99 07/01/07Alaska $0.60 $1.60 07/08/07Delaware $0.60 $1.15 08/01/07Source: Federation of Tax Administrators, Orzechowski & Walker. Updated September 2007.

Page 7: TBS-263 Oct. 24, 2007 Tobacco Outlook€¦ · 10/24/2007  · 5. Tobacco Outlook /TBS-263/October 24, 2007 . Economic Research Service, USDA . Table 2--Per capita consumption of tobacco

7 Tobacco Outlook/TBS-263/October 24, 2007

Economic Research Service, USDA

Table 5--Tobacco demand factors, 1996-2007Disposable personal income, per capita 2/ Consumer Price Indexes 3/

Population Current 1996 All TobaccoYear July 1 1/ prices prices items products Cigarettes 4/

Millions ------------------ Dollars ------------------ ------- Percent of 1982-84 ------- % of 1997

1996 196.1 21,117 21,385 156.9 232.8 --1997 198.2 21,969 21,838 160.5 240.2 100.01998 200.4 23,359 22,672 163.0 274.8 109.81999 202.5 24,314 23,191 166.6 355.8 143.82000 209.1 25,237 23,501 172.2 394.9 159.92001 207.2 26,237 23,692 177.1 425.2 172.52002 209.4 27,157 24,463 179.9 461.5 187.72003 211.6 28,062 24,669 184.0 469.0 190.42004 213.9 29,477 25,902 188.9 478.0 193.52005 216.1 30,437 25,747 195.3 502.8 203.52006 218.3 32,115 27,166 201.6 519.9 210.42007 5/ 220.6 33,453 28,298 206.3 550.2 223.11/ Eighteen years and older including forces overseas. 2/ Based on total population. 3/ All urban consumers. 4/ Bureau of Labor Statistics began to publishcigarette and other tobacco product CPI in January 1998. 5/ Subject to revision. Source: Bureau of the Census Population Estimates , http://www.census.gov/population/projections/nation/summary/, Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI, www.bls.gov/home.htm.

Updated September 2007.

Page 8: TBS-263 Oct. 24, 2007 Tobacco Outlook€¦ · 10/24/2007  · 5. Tobacco Outlook /TBS-263/October 24, 2007 . Economic Research Service, USDA . Table 2--Per capita consumption of tobacco

8 Tobacco Outlook/TBS-263/October 24, 2007

Economic Research Service, USDA

Table 6--Wholesale premium brand cigarette price revisions, 1990-current 1/ Approximate date Net price per 1,000 Net price per 1,000 excluding Federal excise tax of change 2/ King Filter 100 King Filter 100

Standard size tips millimeter Standard size tips millimeter Dollars

June-1990 51.15 52.65 51.15 52.65 43.15 44.65 43.15 44.65Dec.-1990 53.65 55.15 53.65 55.15 45.65 47.15 45.65 47.15Jan.-Feb. 1991 3/ 55.75 57.25 55.75 57.25 45.75 47.25 45.75 47.25Mar.-1991 56.50 58.00 56.50 58.00 46.50 48.00 46.50 48.00June-1991 58.25 59.75 58.25 59.75 48.25 49.75 48.25 49.75Nov.-1991 61.00 62.50 61.00 62.50 51.00 52.50 51.00 52.50Apr.-1992 63.75 65.25 63.75 65.25 53.75 55.25 53.75 55.25July-1992 66.25 67.75 66.25 67.75 56.25 57.75 56.25 57.75Nov.-1992 69.00 70.50 69.00 70.50 59.00 60.50 59.00 60.50Jan.-1993 4/ 71.10 72.60 71.10 72.60 59.10 60.60 59.10 60.60Mar. 1993 72.10 73.60 72.10 73.60 60.10 61.60 60.10 61.60Aug. 1993 53.95 53.95 53.95 53.95 41.95 41.95 41.95 41.95Nov.-1993 55.95 55.95 55.95 55.95 43.95 43.95 43.95 43.95May 1995 5/ 57.45 57.45 57.45 57.45 45.45 45.45 45.45 45.45May 1996 59.45 59.45 59.45 59.45 47.45 47.45 47.45 47.45Mar.-1997 61.95 61.95 61.95 61.95 49.95 49.95 49.95 49.95Sep.-1997 65.45 65.45 65.45 65.45 53.45 53.45 53.45 53.45Jan.-1998 66.70 66.70 66.70 66.70 54.70 54.70 54.70 54.70Apr.-1998 69.20 69.20 69.20 69.20 57.20 57.20 57.20 57.20May 1998 71.70 71.70 71.70 71.70 59.70 59.70 59.70 59.70Aug.-1998 74.70 74.70 74.70 74.70 62.70 62.70 62.70 62.70Nov.-1998 97.20 97.20 97.20 97.20 85.20 85.20 85.20 85.20Aug. 1999 106.20 106.20 106.20 106.20 94.20 94.20 94.20 94.20Jan.- 2000 6/ 112.70 112.70 112.70 112.70 95.70 95.70 95.70 95.70July-2000 115.70 115.70 115.70 115.70 98.70 98.70 98.70 98.70Dec.-2000 122.70 122.70 122.70 122.70 105.70 105.70 105.70 105.70Apr.-2001 129.70 129.70 129.70 129.70 112.70 112.70 112.70 112.70Oct.-2001 132.20 132.20 132.20 132.20 115.20 115.20 115.20 115.20Jan.-2002 7/ 132.20 132.20 132.20 132.20 112.70 112.70 112.70 112.70Apr.-2002 8/ 138.20 138.20 138.20 138.20 118.70 118.70 118.70 118.701/ Includes leading brands. A 3-percent discount is made for payment within 10 days or 2 percent within 14 days. 2/ For 1980-89 see TBS-243, April 1999. 3/ Effective January 1, 1991, the Federal excise tax increased to $10.00 per 1,000 cigarettes. 4/ Effective January 1, 1993, the Federal excisetax increased to $12.00 per 1,000 cigarettes. 5/ No changes in 1994. 6/ Effective Jan. 1, 2000, Federal excise tax increased to $17 per 1,000 cigarettes.

7/ Effective January 1, 2002, Federal excise tax increased to $19.50 per 1,000 cigarettes. 8/ Last price change.

Note: The prices in this table apply to cigarettes manufactured for domestic sales by U.S. manufacturers only. Cigarettes manufactured for export are not included. These prices do not include rebates, discounts, and other adjustments to the wholesale list price.

Sources: News reports and miscellaneous sources.

Updated October 2007

Page 9: TBS-263 Oct. 24, 2007 Tobacco Outlook€¦ · 10/24/2007  · 5. Tobacco Outlook /TBS-263/October 24, 2007 . Economic Research Service, USDA . Table 2--Per capita consumption of tobacco

9 Tobacco Outlook/TBS-263/October 24, 2007

Economic Research Service, USDA

Table 7--Wholesale nonbrand cigarette price revisions, 1990-current 1/Net price per 1,000

Approximate date Discounts Deep discounts of change Regular 100s Regular 100s

Dollars

June 1990 39.25 40.50 24.50 25.75December 1990 41.75 43.00 27.00 28.25Jan.-Feb. 1991 43.85 45.10 29.10 30.35March 1991 46.35 47.60 29.10 30.35June 1991 50.35 51.60 30.35 31.60November 1991 53.10 54.35 31.60 32.85April 1992 57.10 58.35 26.60 27.87July-August 1992 46.60 47.85 28.60 29.87November 1992 49.35 50.60 30.60 31.87Jan.-1993 51.45 52.70 32.70 33.97February 1993 51.45 52.70 36.70 37.95March 1993 52.45 53.70 39.20 40.45August 1993 52.45 53.70 40.45 40.45November 1993 52.45 53.70 42.45 42.45May 1995 2/ 52.45 53.70 43.95 43.95April 1996 52.45 53.70 45.95 45.95September 1997 55.95 57.20 49.45 49.45January 1998 57.20 58.45 50.70 50.70April 1998 58.70 59.95 52.20 52.20May 1998 61.20 62.45 54.70 54.70August 1998 63.20 65.45 57.70 57.70November 1998 85.70 87.95 80.20 80.20August 1999 94.70 96.95 89.20 89.20January 2000 106.20 108.45 100.70 100.70July 2000 2/ 109.20 111.45 103.70 103.70December 2000 116.20 118.45 110.70 110.70April 2001 123.20 125.45 117.70 117.70October-2001 125.70 127.95 120.20 120.20January 2002 125.70 127.95 120.20 120.20April 2002 3/ 131.70 133.95 126.20 126.201/ Typical prices. Prices for some brands higher and some lower. Includes Federal excise tax. 2/ No change in 1994. 3/ Last price change.

Note: The prices in this table apply to cigarettes manufactured for domestic sales by U.S. manufacturers only. Cigarettes manufactured for export are not included. These prices do not include rebates, discounts, and other adjustments to the wholesale list price.

Sources: News reports and miscellaneous sources.

Updated October 2007

Page 10: TBS-263 Oct. 24, 2007 Tobacco Outlook€¦ · 10/24/2007  · 5. Tobacco Outlook /TBS-263/October 24, 2007 . Economic Research Service, USDA . Table 2--Per capita consumption of tobacco

10 Tobacco Outlook/TBS-263/October 24, 2007

Economic Research Service, USDA

Table 8--Cigars and smoking tobacco: Output, removals, and consumption, 2002-2007Removals Total U.S.

Year and item Output Taxable 1/ Tax-exempt Imports Exports consumption 2/Millions

Large cigars and cigarillos:2002 3,819 3,706 80 500 123 4,2062003 4,017 4,019 94 508 130 4,5272004 4,407 4,319 114 616 171 4,9352005 3,674 4,432 98 445 301 4,8772006 4,259 4,503 100 334 150 4,8372007 3/ 4,380 4,420 118 364 130 4,784

Year ending June 302002 3,742 3,654 84 539 134 4,1922003 3,211 3,889 90 498 106 4,3872004 4,366 4,235 117 567 196 4,8022005 4,038 4,326 97 438 366 4,7652006 3,832 4,562 91 506 166 5,0672007 3/ 3,841 4,560 99 456 121 4,896

Million pounds

Smoking tobacco:2002 15.5 15.9 0.6 2.1 7.1 10.92003 17.8 16.7 0.6 2.0 0.1 18.62004 16.1 15.4 0.6 1.5 0.2 16.82005 17.4 16.4 0.6 3.0 0.2 19.22006 16.7 15.9 0.6 3.4 0.4 19.02007 3/ 18.7 16.8 0.9 3.5 0.8 19.5

Year ending June 30

2002 14.3 15.4 0.5 2.2 7.9 9.72003 17.1 16.6 0.5 2.1 7.4 11.32004 17.7 16.7 2.0 1.8 1.1 17.42005 15.8 14.9 2.0 2.0 1.3 15.62006 17.0 16.2 2.0 3.2 1.4 18.02007 3/ 17.2 16.1 3.1 0.8 1.9 15.01/ Includes United States and Puerto Rico combined. 2/ Total removals (or sales) from U.S. factories plus those from Puerto Rico, and importsminus exports. 3/ Estimated. Sources: Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau, Monthly Statistical Release - Tobacco Products , Bureau of the Census, Reports EM545 and IM146, and Agricultural Marketing Service, USDA, Tobacco Stocks Report .

Updated October 2007.

Page 11: TBS-263 Oct. 24, 2007 Tobacco Outlook€¦ · 10/24/2007  · 5. Tobacco Outlook /TBS-263/October 24, 2007 . Economic Research Service, USDA . Table 2--Per capita consumption of tobacco

11 Tobacco Outlook/TBS-263/October 24, 2007

Economic Research Service, USDA

Table 9--Tobacco products: Output by category, 1998-2007Chewing tobacco Smoking tobacco

Period Plug-firm Plug-moist Twist Loose Total 1/ Snuff Snuff Small in bulkleaf dry moist cigars 2/ (exports)

------------------------------------------------- Million pounds --------------------------------------------------------- Millions Million pounds

1998 2.4 0.7 1.0 49.2 53.3 4.3 61.2 1,710 143.81999 2.2 0.6 0.9 47.2 50.9 3.7 63.3 2,316 151.12000 2.0 0.5 0.8 46.0 49.4 3.6 65.9 2,469 136.12001 1.9 0.5 0.8 43.9 47.0 3.3 67.6 2,376 118.22002 1.7 0.3 0.7 40.2 43.0 3.1 69.6 2,478 144.02003 1.4 0.3 0.7 37.9 40.3 2.7 71.1 2,618 121.32004 1.4 0.3 0.7 37.0 39.3 2.4 76.9 3,360 45.42005 1.2 0.2 0.6 37.2 39.2 2.2 84.5 4,665 3.62006 1.1 0.2 0.6 36.4 38.3 2.1 83.9 5,122 1.12007 3/ 1.0 0.2 0.5 34.9 36.7 2.1 88.4 5,890 0.6

Year ending June 30

1998 2.4 0.8 1.0 52.5 56.7 4.3 60.9 1,575 131.61999 2.2 0.7 0.9 48.1 51.9 4.1 62.0 1,942 134.62000 2.1 0.6 0.8 46.5 50.1 3.7 65.6 2,188 149.12001 2.0 0.5 0.8 44.1 47.3 3.3 66.5 2,171 129.42002 1.8 0.4 0.8 41.9 44.8 3.4 68.7 2,248 133.92003 1.6 0.3 0.7 39.3 41.9 2.8 70.5 2,531 130.92004 1.5 0.3 0.7 39.5 42.0 2.6 75.4 2,358 89.22005 1.3 0.2 0.6 37.0 39.2 2.3 83.1 3,409 19.42006 1.1 0.2 0.6 36.6 38.6 2.1 82.0 5,269 1.02007 3/ 1.1 0.2 0.5 35.2 37.0 2.1 86.3 5,269 1.11/ Details may not add to total due to rounding. 2/ Weight not more than 3 pounds per thousand. 3/ Preliminary. Sources: Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau, Monthly Statistical Release - Tobacco Products, Bureau of the Census, reports EM545 and IM146 , and Agricultural Marketing Service, USDA, Tobacco Stocks Report.Updated October 2007.

Page 12: TBS-263 Oct. 24, 2007 Tobacco Outlook€¦ · 10/24/2007  · 5. Tobacco Outlook /TBS-263/October 24, 2007 . Economic Research Service, USDA . Table 2--Per capita consumption of tobacco

12 Tobacco Outlook/TBS-263/October 24, 2007

Economic Research Service, USDA

Table 10--Tobacco products: domestic invoices by category, 1998-2007Smoking

Chewing tobacco tobacco Period Plug-firm Plug-moist Twist Loose Total 1/ Snuff Snuff in bulk Small

leaf dry moist (exports) cigars 2/ --------------------------------------------- Million pounds ----------------------------------------------------- Millions

1998 2.3 0.7 1.0 48.6 52.5 4.1 59.9 ** 1,6381999 2.1 0.6 0.9 46.9 50.5 3.9 61.6 ** 2,1962000 2.0 0.5 0.9 45.1 48.5 3.8 64.8 ** 2,2432001 1.8 0.4 0.8 43.5 46.6 3.4 69.3 ** 2,1712002 1.7 0.3 0.8 40.2 43.0 3.1 68.6 ** 2,2482003 1.4 0.3 0.7 37.9 40.3 2.9 71.1 ** 2,2072004 1.3 0.2 0.7 35.7 37.9 2.6 74.7 ** 2,7012005 1.2 0.2 0.6 35.7 37.7 2.4 76.7 ** 3,7722006 1.1 0.2 0.6 36.1 38.0 2.3 78.0 ** 4,1622007 3/ 1.1 0.2 0.6 33.7 35.5 2.1 81.3 ** 3,972

Year ending June 301998 2.4 0.8 1.0 52.5 56.7 4.3 60.9 ** 1,5821999 2.2 0.7 0.9 48.1 51.9 4.1 62.0 ** 1,8402000 2.1 0.6 0.8 46.5 50.1 3.7 65.6 ** 2,1892001 1.9 0.5 0.8 45.0 48.3 3.3 66.5 ** 2,2172002 1.8 0.4 0.8 42.7 45.8 3.4 68.7 ** 2,2132003 1.6 0.3 0.7 40.8 43.4 2.8 70.5 ** 2,2702004 1.5 0.3 0.7 39.5 42.0 2.6 75.4 ** 2,5902005 1.3 0.2 0.6 37.0 39.2 2.3 83.1 ** 4,2872006 1.1 0.2 0.6 36.3 38.2 2.3 79.1 ** 4,4932007 3/ 1.0 0.2 0.6 33.9 35.7 2.1 82.4 ** 4,376** not applicable. 1/ Detail may not add to total due to rounding. 2/ Weight not more than 3 pounds per thousand. Taxable removals for small cigars. 3/ Preliminary.Sources: Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau, Monthly Statistical Release - Tobacco Products , Bureau of the Census, Report EM545 and IM146,

and Agricultural Marketing Service, USDA, Tobacco Stocks Report .

Updated October 2007.

Page 13: TBS-263 Oct. 24, 2007 Tobacco Outlook€¦ · 10/24/2007  · 5. Tobacco Outlook /TBS-263/October 24, 2007 . Economic Research Service, USDA . Table 2--Per capita consumption of tobacco

13 Tobacco Outlook/TBS-263/October 24, 2007

Economic Research Service, USDA

Table 11--U.S. imports of unmanufactured tobacco: Quantity and average value, by kinds, 2006/07 1/

Quantity Change from Value perKind 2006/07 2005/06 pound

Million Percent Dollarspounds

Imports for consumptionCigarette 2/ Unstemmed leaf Flue-cured leaf 1.0 -51 1.1 Burley leaf 0.6 -59 1.5 Other * * * Oriental leaf 137.1 21 2.4

Stemmed leaf : Flue-cured 185.1 54 1.7 NSPF 173.2 25 1.5 Scrap * * * Manufactured or not mfd., NSPF 1.5 56 1.9

Cigar Leaf 81.6 62 0.7 Scrap 10.4 60 0.6Other stemmed and unstemmed leaf 4.4 -33 1.8Stems 80.9 -41 0.2

Total 594.9 -1 1.7General Imports

Cigarette 2/ Unstemmed leaf Flue-cured leaf 1.0 11 1.1 Burley leaf 0.5 -62 1.6 Other * * * Oriental leaf 130.2 23 2.4

Stemmed leaf Flue-cured 178.3 64 1.7 NSPF 139.5 -1 1.6 Scrap * * * Manufactured or not mfd., NSPF 1.2 6 2.2

Cigar Leaf 79.8 59 1.5 Scrap 10.5 59 0.6Other stemmed and unstemmed leaf 4.4 -33 1.8

Stems 75.1 -37 0.2

Total 620.5 9 1.41/ Year ending June 30, 2007. 2/ Includes minor quantities for smokingtobacco, chewing tobacco, and snuff. * = Negligible, less than 50,000 pounds.Sources: Compiled from Bureau of the Census, Reports EM545 and IM146 .

Updated October 2007.

Page 14: TBS-263 Oct. 24, 2007 Tobacco Outlook€¦ · 10/24/2007  · 5. Tobacco Outlook /TBS-263/October 24, 2007 . Economic Research Service, USDA . Table 2--Per capita consumption of tobacco

14 Tobacco Outlook/TBS-263/October 24, 2007

Economic Research Service, USDA

Table 12--U.S. imports of unmanufactured tobacco for consumption and general imports, principal categories, and countries of origin, 2006/2007 (declared-weight)

Imports for consumption General imports (arrivals)January-June Percentage January-June Percentage

Item July 2006- 2006 3/ 2007 1/ change from July 2006- 2006 3/ 2007 1/ change fromJune 2007 2006-07 June 2007 2006-07

-------- Million pounds -------- Percent -------- Million pounds -------- PercentCigarette tobacco leaf (unstemmed): Oriental Turkey 87.0 52.6 69.7 33 84.3 46.6 58.7 26 Bulgaria 19.0 11.8 10.6 -10 18.4 10.7 9.0 -16 Greece 14.9 10.7 14.7 37 14.9 10.7 14.3 34 Macedonia 9.2 2.9 8.4 190 5.0 2.9 4.3 48 China 6.1 1.5 5.5 267 6.9 2.1 6.9 229 Other countries 0.9 0.7 1.1 57 0.7 0.3 0.6 100 Total Oriental 137.1 80.2 110.0 37 130.2 73.3 93.8 28 Flue-cured 1.0 0.5 0.7 40 1.0 0.5 0.7 40 Burley 0.6 0.9 0.3 -67 0.5 0.7 0.3 -57 Other (unstemmed) * * * * * * * * Total unstemmed leaf 138.7 81.6 111.0 36 131.7 74.5 94.8 27Cigarette tobacco leaf (stemmed): Flue-cured-- Brazil 145.3 28.7 92.2 221 131.2 35.9 79.9 123 Argentina 11.8 7.8 2.2 -72 19.9 9.8 13.2 35 Canada 6.0 3.7 4.9 32 7.1 3.7 4.9 32 Other countries 22.1 10.6 11.0 4 20.1 10.4 10.3 -1 Total stemmed flue-cured 185.2 50.8 110.3 117 178.3 59.8 108.3 81 NSPF-- Brazil 60.6 24.3 27.1 12 47.7 19.7 22.8 16 Malawi 50.2 24.8 32.9 33 40.3 17.3 26.4 53 Argentina 27.5 9.9 11.6 17 19.4 8.3 4.2 -49 Thailand 16.3 9.1 12.1 33 16.7 4.2 4.6 10 Guatemala 4.8 5.6 2.7 -52 4.8 0.0 2.7 Other countries 13.8 4.7 5.6 19 10.7 4.0 5.4 35 Total NSPF 173.2 78.4 92.0 17 139.6 53.5 66.1 24Total cigarette leaf 497.1 210.8 313.3 49 449.6 187.8 269.2 43Manufactured or not manufactured categories 2/ 1.5 0.4 1.0 150 1.2 0.5 0.8 60Total cigarette tobacco 498.6 211.2 314.3 49 450.8 188.3 270.0 43Cigar tobacco:Wrapper 4.4 1.9 2.9 53 4.4 1.9 2.9 53Filler (stemmed and unstemmed) Indonesia 17.1 7.3 6.6 -10 16.7 7.7 7.2 -6 Italy 14.4 3.7 4.5 22 13.4 3.7 2.1 -43 Philippines 12.7 5.2 7.4 42 12.7 5.2 7.6 46 Argentina 6.7 7.0 5.3 -24 6.7 7.0 5.3 -24 Dominican Republic 9.2 4.0 4.9 23 9.2 4.0 4.9 23 Other countries 21.5 10.7 10.7 0 21.1 7.2 10.9 51Total filler 81.6 33.9 39.4 16 79.8 34.8 38.0 9Binder 0.7 1.5 0.3 -80 0.7 1.5 0.3 -80Cigar scrap: Indonesia 5.4 6.2 2.0 -68 5.4 6.2 2.0 -68 India 1.6 0.4 1.2 200 1.7 0.4 1.2 200 Other countries 3.4 1.3 1.8 38 3.4 1.3 1.8 38Total cigar scrap 10.4 7.9 5.0 -37 10.5 7.9 5.0 -37Total cigar tobacco 97.1 45.2 47.6 5 91.0 44.2 43.3 -2Other stemmed and unstemmed 4.4 2.5 1.4 -44 4.4 2.4 1.4 -42Stems 80.9 50.2 35.1 -30 75.1 46.3 30.6 -34GRAND TOTAL 680.9 309.1 398.3 29 625.8 283.2 348.2 23 * = Negligible.1/ Preliminary. 2/ Includes tobacco, manufactured or not manufactured, except smoking tobacco in retail packages, flue-cured, and tobacco, manufactured or not manufactured, not specially provided for (other). 3/ January-June 2006 revised.Due to aggregation, rounding errors may occur.Sources: Compiled from Bureau of the Census, Reports EM545 and IM146 .

Updated October 2007.

Page 15: TBS-263 Oct. 24, 2007 Tobacco Outlook€¦ · 10/24/2007  · 5. Tobacco Outlook /TBS-263/October 24, 2007 . Economic Research Service, USDA . Table 2--Per capita consumption of tobacco

15 Tobacco Outlook/TBS-263/September 28, 2007

Economic Research Service, USDA

Table 13--U.S. exports of unmanufactured tobacco by types and to principal importing countries, 2002-07 (declared-weight)January-June Pct. change,

Type & country 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2006 2007 1/ 2007-06Percent

Type: Flue-cured 196.7 160.6 155.0 137.7 193.2 81.9 57.4 -30 Burley 90.9 90.9 91.6 134.4 137.9 94.0 96.0 2 Maryland 2.7 2.4 1.0 1.4 1.5 0.9 1.0 11 Fire-cured, Ky. and Tenn. 17.5 11.5 12.1 6.3 5.5 2.7 1.6 -41 Virginia fire- & sun-cured 0.2 * * 0.2 0.1 * 0.1 * Black Fat * * * * 0.5 * 1.2 * Cigar wrapper 3.3 2.2 2.2 2.6 3.6 1.2 1.1 -8 Cigar binder 0.2 0.1 0.9 0.9 1.5 0.9 0.0 -95 Stems and refuse 59.5 45.2 48.0 26.4 30.6 18.5 23.0 24 Other leaf 39.6 30.0 32.7 29.0 22.7 11.9 10.3 -13

Total 2/ 410.7 338.2 343.3 339.0 397.0 212.0 192.1 -9

Country of destination:Austria 0.9 0.5 0.9 5.1 3.0 2.2 2.2 0Belgium-Luxem. 49.7 29.4 61.7 12.7 11.4 7.8 0.7 -91Denmark 12.2 13.6 13.5 8.4 4.4 4.1 5.3 29Finland 0.3 0.1 * * * * * *France 11.5 10.3 8.8 10.6 6.7 4.3 10.1 135Germany 94.8 59.5 55.8 55.3 25.2 38.1 41.8 10Greece 0.5 1.2 0.8 9.0 3.4 3.0 4.9 63Ireland * 1.0 * * * * * *Italy 6.2 8.6 6.9 5.8 4.9 1.5 0.7 -53Netherlands 21.6 10.3 9.8 25.4 10.7 21.8 11.6 -47Portugal 4.3 5.9 6.2 3.8 1.7 0.9 2.4 167Spain 7.9 6.3 4.7 6.7 4.6 2.3 1.2 -48Sweden 3.6 1.2 1.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.3 -40United Kingdom 1.6 6.0 4.8 3.2 1.7 0.5 0.0 -100

Total EU-15 215.1 153.8 175.5 146.7 78.2 87.0 81.2 -7

Japan 51.6 49.6 42.4 21.7 25.2 1.8 2.5 39 Switzerland 14.4 27.3 34.8 15.6 6.3 25.2 14.5 -42 Dominican Republic 5.9 9.2 8.9 12.7 3.5 4.1 4.6 12 Malaysia 7.0 15.1 6.4 7.5 3.2 2.8 3.0 7 Turkey 15.8 0.3 0.4 7.0 2.4 2.7 1.1 -59 Taiwan 7.9 8.1 7.9 6.6 3.3 5.7 4.3 -25 South Korea 9.6 10.1 9.6 5.8 3.2 2.7 4.2 56 Philippines 5.1 6.9 2.9 5.2 1.1 5.1 1.6 -69 Nigeria 5.6 3.7 6.2 4.3 1.5 2.4 2.0 -17 Thailand 7.7 12.6 3.6 4.1 4.1 3.0 0.6 -80 Australia 3.4 4.5 6.3 2.9 0.5 3.2 2.3 -28 Egypt 0.9 1.8 1.1 1.5 0.1 0.6 1.5 150 Norway 3.3 2.0 2.1 1.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 -40 Canada 0.3 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.3 -57 Bulgaria 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 -50 Singapore 0.5 0.3 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0 New Zealand 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0 Other countries 56.3 29.9 32.5 94.9 49.3 64.3 67.8 6

Total 2/ 410.7 338.2 343.3 339.0 397.0 212.0 192.1 -9* = Negligible. 1/ Preliminary. 2/ Data may not add to total due to rounding. Sources: Compiled from Bureau of the Census, Reports EM545 and IM146 .

Updated September 2007.

Page 16: TBS-263 Oct. 24, 2007 Tobacco Outlook€¦ · 10/24/2007  · 5. Tobacco Outlook /TBS-263/October 24, 2007 . Economic Research Service, USDA . Table 2--Per capita consumption of tobacco

16 Tobacco Outlook/TBS-263/October 24, 2007

Economic Research Service, USDA

Table 14--U.S. exports of unmanufactured tobacco by types, to principal importing countries, crop years 2004/05-2006/07 (declared-weight) 1/Importing country 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2/ Importing country 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2/

Million pounds 1,000 pounds

Flue-cured, types 11-14 Va. fire & sun-cured, types 21 & 37 Germany 28.1 41.7 47.8 Ukraine 123 * *Switzerland 5.2 21.7 12.3 Norway 110 * *China 6.0 18.4 19.1 Sweden * * *Netherlands 7.0 17.1 15.1 Germany * * *Republic of Korea 4.5 8.1 6.2 Other countries 65 56 68Malaysia 6.6 6.0 3.9 Total 3/ 298 56 68Russia 4.6 6.0 6.3Philippines 1.5 5.9 1.1Indonesia 3.4 5.0 3.9 Binder, types 51-55 Taiwan 3.3 4.9 3.4 Dominican Republic 567 1,084 297Turkey 1.5 4.9 4.3 Spain 126 2 *Australia 2.5 4.8 2.8 Honduras 160 520 261Poland 0.5 3.9 4.3 Other countries 544 173 71Denmark 4.1 3.4 3.7 Total 3/ 1,397 1,779 629France 2.4 3.4 1.8Thailand 2.3 3.0 0.6 Cigar wrapper, types 61-62 Portugal 1.3 2.1 3.2 Dominican Republic 1,340 1,340 1,991United Kingdom 3.1 2.0 0.0 Honduras 829 829 1,390Italy 1.2 2.0 2.3 Spain 0 0 0Lithuania 0.5 1.5 3.5 Nicaragua 82 82 101Spain 2.7 1.2 0.1 Other countries 10 526 18Japan 17.5 * 0.0 Total 3/ 2,261 2,777 3,500Other countries 19.1 9.0 22.9Total 3/ 128.9 176.0 168.6

BlackfatBurley, type 31 Total * 3 1,784Netherlands 10.6 17.7 9.2Germany 21.4 19.1 28.8 Million poundsLithuania 10.7 10.9 3.7Ukraine 9.4 11.9 20.4 Other leafBelgium-Luxembourg 6.5 5.7 * Dominican Republic 6.0 6.5 5.8Switzerland 7.2 8.0 12.2 Japan 3.1 3.9 3.8Romania 10.1 6.8 5.8 Nigeria 2.7 4.1 0.3Greece 9.0 6.5 6.5 Brazil 1.7 1.9 1.2Czech Republic 7.1 5.9 3.7 Indonesia 2.5 1.2 *Russia 26.5 6.6 2.6 Taiwan 0.9 0.6 0.3Spain 5.2 4.1 1.7 Canada 0.4 0.7 0.1Turkey 2.3 3.1 1.0 Germany 0.8 0.8 1.0Denmark 2.0 1.8 1.3 Honduras 0.7 0.4 0.2Other countries 32.5 22.2 23.6 Other countries 15.7 4.6 3.2Total 3/ 160.5 130.3 120.5 Total 3/ 34.5 24.7 15.9

Maryland, type 32 Stems, trimmings, and scrap Indonesia 0.5 1.2 0.4Russia * 0.3 0.6 Germany 7.4 6.6 5.5Israel 0.2 0.1 0.0 Dominican Republic * 4.8 *Other countries 0.1 0.2 0.2 France 3.8 3.4 9.3Total 3/ 0.8 1.8 1.2 Switzerland 2.8 4.9 2.7

Denmark 2.9 3.1 3.0Ky.-Tenn. fire-cured, types 22-23 Belgium 1.4 1.4 0.7Netherlands 2.5 1.9 0.0 Mexico 3.3 0.8 2.5Sri Lanka 1.5 0.8 0.8 Taiwan * 0.8 1.6Nigeria 0.5 0.8 0.5 Australia 1.0 0.7 0.4Egypt 0.4 1.0 0.5 Nigeria 0.1 0.6 0.2Belgium 0.6 0.4 0.3 Bangladesh 0.1 0.2 0.1Indonesia 0.5 0.1 0.2 Sweden 0.1 0.1 *Germany 0.1 0.1 * Israel 0.8 0.5 0.4Other countries 1.3 0.1 0.3 Other countries 11.1 1.6 5.5Total 3/ 7.4 5.2 2.6 Total 3/ 34.8 29.5 31.9* = Negligible. 1/ July-June crop year for flue-cured and cigar wrapper; October-September crop year for all other types except October-June for 2006/07.

2/ Subject to revision. 3/ Data may not add to total because of rounding.Sources: Compiled from Bureau of the Census, Reports EM545 and IM146 .

Updated September 2007.

Page 17: TBS-263 Oct. 24, 2007 Tobacco Outlook€¦ · 10/24/2007  · 5. Tobacco Outlook /TBS-263/October 24, 2007 . Economic Research Service, USDA . Table 2--Per capita consumption of tobacco

17 Tobacco Outlook/TBS-263/October 24, 2007

Economic Research Service, USDA

Table 15--All tobacco: Acreage, yield, and production, United States, 1965-2007

Acreage YieldYear harvested per acre Production

Thousand Pounds Millionacres pounds

Average1965-69 941 1,959 1,8441970-74 886 2,053 1,8181975-79 978 1,995 1,9571980-84 878 2,046 1,8001985-89 633 2,080 1,3201990 733 2,218 1,6261991 764 2,179 1,6641992 784 2,195 1,7221993 746 2,161 1,6131994 671 2,359 1,5831995 664 1,914 1,2701996 733 2,072 1,5191997 836 2,137 1,7871998 718 2,062 1,4801999 647 1,997 1,2932000 469 2,244 1,0532001 432 2,292 9912002 427 2,039 8712003 411 1,952 8032004 408 2,161 8822005 297 2,171 6452006 339 2,144 7272007 1/ 355 2,000 1/ 7101/ Indicated October 1, 2007.

Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA, Crop Production

Report, October, 2007.

Updated October 2007.

Page 18: TBS-263 Oct. 24, 2007 Tobacco Outlook€¦ · 10/24/2007  · 5. Tobacco Outlook /TBS-263/October 24, 2007 . Economic Research Service, USDA . Table 2--Per capita consumption of tobacco

18 Tobacco Outlook/TBS-263/October 24, 2007

Economic Research Service, USDA

Table 16--Flue-cured tobacco, types 11-14, and burley tobacco, type 31: Acreage, yield, marketings, carryover, supply, disappearance, season average price, and price support operations, 1996-2007 (farm-sales weight)

Beginning stocks 1/Marketing Acreage Yield per Marketings Manufacturers

year 1/ harvested acre 2/ and others Under loan Total Total supply 1,000 acres Pounds ----------------------------------- Million pounds --------------------------------

Flue-cured, types 11-14

1996 422.2 2,151 897.3 1,008.9 157.6 1,166.4 2,063.81997 458.3 2,285 1,013.5 1,025.1 91.5 1,116.5 2,130.01998 368.8 2,204 814.8 1,002.2 250.9 1,253.2 2,068.01999 303.8 2,162 653.9 939.7 294.6 1,234.3 1,888.22000 247.0 2,426 564.1 925.6 263.9 1,189.5 1,753.62001 238.1 2,432 544.4 936.2 100.2 1,036.4 1,580.82002 245.6 2,094 564.8 896.5 19.4 915.9 1,480.72003 233.4 1,957 507.7 766.8 70.9 837.7 1,345.32004 228.4 2,283 499.3 708.8 114.0 822.8 1,322.22005 174.5 2,182 380.9 716.9 79.0 796.0 1,176.82006 213.1 2,095 446.5 604.0 0.0 604.0 1,050.52007 3/ 225.0 2,024 455.5 493.2 0.0 493.2 948.7

Burley, type 311996 268.3 1,940 526.8 677.9 212.5 890.4 1,417.21997 335.3 1,934 628.2 645.4 105.6 751.0 1,379.21998 307.1 1,896 588.7 647.8 183.8 831.6 1,421.91999 303.6 1,829 551.2 737.1 164.3 901.4 1,452.62000 185.4 1,957 315.4 619.4 420.7 1,040.0 1,355.52001 164.4 2,032 343.7 570.2 119.3 689.5 1,033.12002 157.7 1,861 299.8 516.7 131.1 647.9 947.72003 152.3 1,850 271.7 442.4 135.7 578.2 849.92004 153.2 1,908 143.1 412.3 127.7 540.0 820.12005 100.2 2,031 203.4 413.9 78.7 492.6 696.02006 103.6 2,095 217.1 403.4 0.0 403.4 620.52007 3/ 105.2 1,826 192.1 322.3 0.0 322.3 520.9

Disappearance Average price Price support Placed under loan Total Domestic Exports per pound level 4/ Quantity % of crop

------------- Million pounds ------------- ------------- Cents ------------- Million pounds Percent Flue-cured, types 11-14

1996 946.6 555.4 391.2 183.4 160.1 1.8 0.21997 876.8 542.5 334.3 172.0 162.1 195.5 19.41998 833.7 492.1 341.6 175.6 162.8 82.4 10.21999 698.7 436.9 261.8 173.7 163.2 136.4 21.22000 717.2 479.2 238.0 179.3 164.0 27.4 4.62001 664.9 388.9 276.0 185.7 166.0 15.0 2.62002 643.0 423.4 219.6 182.0 165.6 24.8 4.82003 522.5 307.0 215.5 185.1 166.3 59.8 11.82004 526.2 337.6 188.6 184.5 169.0 94.9 18.52005 572.8 314.4 5/ 258.4 5/ 147.4 6/ 6/ 6/ 2006 557.3 310.4 5/ 246.9 5/ 149.6 6/ 6/ 6/

Burley, type 31

1996 666.2 456.8 209.4 192.2 173.7 0.0 0.01997 547.6 379.2 168.4 188.5 176.0 124.5 0.21998 520.5 351.6 168.9 190.3 177.8 73.2 12.41999 412.5 503.8 139.3 189.9 178.9 230.6 42.02000 666.0 524.0 142.0 196.3 180.5 19.3 4.82001 385.2 245.4 139.8 197.3 182.6 12.4 3.52002 369.6 220.9 148.6 197.4 183.5 24.3 31.02003 309.8 136.2 173.7 197.7 184.9 40.2 14.82004 327.5 99.9 227.6 199.4 187.3 48.0 16.42005 292.6 84.1 208.5 156.4 6/ 6/ 6/ 2006 297.1 72.1 225.0 163.8 6/ 6/ 6/ 1/ July 1 for flue-cured; October 1 for burley. 2/ Actual marketings in the marketing year. 3/ October 1 Crop Production estimate used for

acreage, yield, and marketings. 4/ 1999 loan forgiveness stocks included (230 million pounds burley, 78 million pounds flue-cured).

5/ Estimated. 6/ Price supports terminated beginning in 2005. Sources: Agricultural Marketing Service, Agricultural Prices Report , various issues; Tobacco Stocks Report , various issues;

Flue-cured and Burley Tobacco Market Reviews , various issues, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Crop Production Report ,

various issues, Prospective Plantings , March 2007; and U.S. Department of Commerce Census Bureau, Reports EM545 and IM146.

Updated October 2007

Page 19: TBS-263 Oct. 24, 2007 Tobacco Outlook€¦ · 10/24/2007  · 5. Tobacco Outlook /TBS-263/October 24, 2007 . Economic Research Service, USDA . Table 2--Per capita consumption of tobacco

19 Tobacco Outlook/TBS-263/October 24, 2007

Economic Research Service, USDA

Table 17--Southern Maryland tobacco, type 32: Acreage, yield, production, carryover, supply, disappearance, season-average price, 1996-2007 (farm-sales weight)

Supply DisappearanceMarketing Stocks Avg.year 1/ Acreage Yield per following grower price

harvested acre Production Jan. 1 2/ Total Total Domestic Exports per pound1,000 acres Pounds ----------------------------------- Million pounds -------------------------------- Cents

1996 11.4 1,451 16.5 15.0 31.6 12.9 6.4 6.4 185.31997 11.2 1,629 18.2 18.7 36.9 16.3 9.8 6.5 157.61998 9.8 1,568 15.4 20.6 36.0 20.0 13.8 6.2 129.11999 9.5 1,511 14.4 16.0 30.4 17.0 12.8 4.2 134.52000 8.4 1,595 13.4 13.4 26.8 17.1 12.7 4.4 138.72001 3.3 1,620 5.3 9.7 15.0 6.8 4.1 2.7 155.42002 2.5 1,682 4.2 8.2 12.4 5.2 3.5 1.8 134.82003 2.4 1,748 4.2 7.2 11.4 6.4 4.6 1.8 146.32004 3.3 1,767 5.8 5.0 10.8 8.2 6.9 1.3 130.82005 1.5 2,000 3.0 2.6 5.6 3.1 1.5 1.6 135.02006 1.1 1,900 2.1 0.8 2.9 2.6 1.6 1.0 150.02007 3/ 1.1 2,100 2.3 0.31/ Year beginning October 1, 2/ Adjusted to reflect calendar 1987-1996 sales of tobacco produced in Pennsylvania. 3/ October1, crop estimates.Sources: Agricultural Marketing Service, Agricultural Prices Report, various issues and Tobacco Stocks Report, various issues,and Burley Tobacco Market Review , various issues, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Crop Production Report, variousissues, Bureau of the Census, Reports EM545 and IM146.Updated October 2007.

Page 20: TBS-263 Oct. 24, 2007 Tobacco Outlook€¦ · 10/24/2007  · 5. Tobacco Outlook /TBS-263/October 24, 2007 . Economic Research Service, USDA . Table 2--Per capita consumption of tobacco

20 Tobacco Outlook/TBS-263/October 24, 2007

Economic Research Service, USDA

Table 18--Fire-cured tobacco, Kentucky-Tennessee, types 22-23, and Virginia fire-cured, type 21: Acreage, yield, production, carryover, supply, disappearance, season-average price, and price support operations, 1996-2007 (farm-sales weight)

Beginning stocks Marketing Acreage Yield Manufacturersyear 1/ harvested per acre Production and others Under loan Total Total supply

1,000 acres Pounds ----------------------------------- Million pounds -------------------------------- Kentucky-Tennessee fire-cured, types 22-23

1996 15.5 2,745 42.5 79.3 0.9 80.2 122.71997 15.4 2,625 40.3 83.2 0.1 83.3 123.61998 15.3 2,444 37.5 84.6 0.2 84.8 122.31999 14.8 2,365 35.4 86.7 0.0 86.7 122.12000 16.2 2,389 49.1 87.8 0.0 87.8 136.92001 13.4 3,211 43.1 89.8 4.0 93.8 136.92002 10.2 3,265 33.4 90.8 8.7 99.5 132.92003 10.7 3,147 33.7 93.2 4.4 97.6 131.22004 11.0 3,249 35.8 94.3 4.5 98.8 134.62005 11.5 3,209 36.9 98.4 2.1 100.5 137.42006 11.5 3,362 38.7 98.5 0.0 98.5 136.02007 2/ 12.9 2,851 36.8 101.1 0.0 101.1 137.9

Virginia fire-cured, type 21

1996 1.1 1,580 1.7 3.4 0.1 3.5 5.21997 1.2 1,640 2.0 2.3 0.1 2.4 4.41998 1.5 1,560 2.3 2.4 0.0 2.4 4.71999 1.6 1,670 2.7 2.6 0.0 2.7 5.32000 1.3 1,960 2.5 3.0 0.4 3.4 6.02001 1.2 1,835 2.2 3.9 0.3 4.2 6.42002 0.7 2,015 1.5 3.9 0.9 4.8 6.32003 0.6 1,525 0.8 4.3 0.0 4.3 5.12004 0.7 1,895 1.3 3.8 0.0 3.8 5.12005 0.3 2,150 0.7 4.2 0.1 4.3 5.12006 0.4 2,090 0.7 3.4 0.0 3.4 4.12007 2/ 0.4 2,000 0.8 1.9 0.0 1.9 3.7

Disappearance Price per Support Placed under loanTotal Domestic Exports pound level Quantity % of crop

------------- Million pounds ------------- ------------- Cents ------------- Thousand pounds PercentKentucky-Tennessee fire-cured, types 22-23

1996 39.4 22.1 17.2 224.5 155.7 71 0.21997 38.9 21.2 17.7 225.6 162.3 368 0.91998 35.5 20.4 15.2 222.5 168.1 218 0.61999 34.3 13.4 21.0 229.8 171.6 28 0.12000 43.1 17.8 25.3 216.3 171.6 4,850 9.92001 37.4 21.2 16.2 214.9 173.6 6,904 16.02002 35.3 24.7 10.7 237.8 176.7 488 1.52003 32.4 19.2 13.2 247.5 181.7 14 0.02004 34.1 25.3 8.8 254.0 186.3 28 0.12005 38.9 29.1 9.8 237.7 4/ 4/ 4/2006 34.9 27.6 7.3 240.0 4/ 4/ 4/

Virginia fire-cured, type 21

1996 2.8 0.3 2.5 179.0 145.5 27.0 1.61997 2.0 1.4 0.6 212.5 149.8 0.0 0.01998 2.0 1.5 0.6 193.6 153.6 153.0 6.51999 1.9 0.9 1.0 181.9 155.9 407.0 15.22000 1.8 0.8 1.0 163.7 155.9 607.0 23.82001 1.6 1.4 0.2 175.9 157.2 495.0 22.52002 2.0 1.9 0.1 188.4 160.3 18.2 1.22003 1.4 1.3 0.1 164.1 163.6 35.2 4.22004 0.8 0.3 0.5 179.8 163.6 268.5 20.02005 1.6 1.5 0.1 197.4 4/ 4/ 4/2006 1.2 1.1 0.1 198.0 4/ 4/ 4/1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ October 1 Crop Production estimate used for acreage, yield, and marketings.. 3/ Estimate.

4/ Price supports terminated beginning in 2005. Sources: Agricultural Marketing Service, Agricultural Prices Report , various issues; Tobacco Stocks Report , various issues;

Flue-cured and Burley Tobacco Market Reviews , various issues, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Crop Production Report , various issues;

Prospective Plantings , March 2007; and U.S. Department of Commerce Census Bureau, Reports EM545 and IM146.

Updated October 2007

Page 21: TBS-263 Oct. 24, 2007 Tobacco Outlook€¦ · 10/24/2007  · 5. Tobacco Outlook /TBS-263/October 24, 2007 . Economic Research Service, USDA . Table 2--Per capita consumption of tobacco

21 Tobacco Outlook/TBS-263/October 24, 2007

Economic Research Service, USDA

Table 19--Dark air-cured tobacco, types 35-36, and sun-cured tobacco, type 37: Acreage, yield, production, carryover, supply, disappearance, season-average price, and price support operations, 1996-2007 (farm-sales weight)

Beginning stocks Marketing Acreage Yield Manufacturersyear 1/ harvested per acre Production and others Under loan Total Total supply

1,000 acres Pounds ----------------------------------- Million pounds -------------------------------- Dark air-cured, types 35-36

1996 3.8 2,262 8.6 25.1 0.3 25.4 34.01997 3.6 2,258 8.2 23.8 0.0 23.8 32.01998 4.3 2,229 9.7 22.5 0.0 22.5 32.11999 5.0 2,328 11.6 24.0 0.0 24.0 35.72000 5.5 2,901 15.9 26.6 0.0 26.6 42.52001 5.0 2,807 13.9 32.2 0.5 32.7 46.62002 3.8 2,811 10.6 35.1 3.1 38.3 48.82003 4.1 2,746 11.2 36.2 1.1 37.3 48.52004 4.2 2,816 11.8 37.3 0.0 37.3 49.12005 4.2 2,778 11.5 37.5 0.0 37.5 49.12006 4.3 3,059 13.2 36.4 0.0 36.4 49.62007 2/ 4.7 2,544 11.8 37.0 0.0 37.0 49.4

Sun-cured, type 37

1996 0.1 1,600 0.1 0.0 * 0.0 0.11997 0.1 1,490 0.1 0.0 * 0.0 0.21998 0.1 1,220 0.1 0.1 * 0.1 0.21999 0.1 1,550 0.2 0.1 * 0.1 0.32000 0.1 1,650 0.2 0.2 * 0.2 0.32001 0.1 1,540 0.2 0.1 * 0.1 0.22002 0.1 1,655 0.1 0.1 * 0.1 0.22003 0.1 1,400 0.1 0.1 * 0.1 0.22004 0.1 1,770 0.1 0.1 * 0.0 0.02005 5/ na na na 0.0 * 0.0 0.0

Disappearance Avg. price Avg. support Placed under loanTotal Domestic Exports per pound level Quantity % of crop ------------- Million pounds ------------- ------------- Cents ------------- Thousand pounds Percent

Dark air-cured, types 35-361996 10.1 10.1 0.0 195.2 133.9 20.0 0.21997 9.6 9.6 0.0 201.7 139.8 14.1 0.21998 8.1 8.1 0.0 195.5 145.0 0.81999 9.0 7.7 1.3 203.9 148.1 48.0 0.42000 9.8 8.8 1.0 196.5 148.1 810.0 5.12001 8.4 8.3 0.1 182.9 149.9 1,615.0 11.62002 11.5 11.4 0.1 210.1 152.6 151.3 1.42003 11.2 11.2 0.0 215.7 157.1 182.5 1.62004 11.5 11.5 0.1 219.4 161.2 293.9 2.52005 12.6 3/ 12.6 3/ 0.1 213.7 4/ 4/ 4/2006 12.5 11.4 1.1 220.0 4/ 4/ 4/

Sun-cured, type 371996 0.1 * 0.1 178.2 132.6 0.0 0.01997 0.1 * 0.0 190.8 136.0 9 7.11998 0.1 * 0.0 170.9 138.0 21.6 13.91999 0.1 * 0.1 159.0 138.0 4.0 2.42000 0.2 * 0.0 180.0 139.2 38.0 24.72001 0.1 * 0.0 168.6 142.9 1.2 1.02002 0.1 * 0.0 177.8 145.8 1.2 1.52003 0.2 * 0.0 170.7 145.8 26.0 20.62004 0.0 * 0.0 147.6 150.1 25.0 20.12005 0.0 0.0 0.0 5/ 4/ 4/ 4/*negligable. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ October 1 Crop Production estimate used for acreage, yield, and marketings.3/ Estimate. 4/ Price supports terminated beginning in 2005. 5/ No Virginia sun-cured produced in 2005.Sources: Agricultural Marketing Service, Agricultural Prices Report, various issues; and Tobacco Stocks Report, various issues, and Fire-cured and Dark air-cured Tobacco Market Review , various issues, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Crop Production Report,various issues, Bureau of the Census, Reports EM545 and IM146.Updated October 2007

77 7 7

77 7 7

77

7 77

Page 22: TBS-263 Oct. 24, 2007 Tobacco Outlook€¦ · 10/24/2007  · 5. Tobacco Outlook /TBS-263/October 24, 2007 . Economic Research Service, USDA . Table 2--Per capita consumption of tobacco

22 Tobacco Outlook/TBS-263/October 24, 2007

Economic Research Service, USDA

Table 20--Cigar tobacco, types 41-61: Domestic supplies, disappearance, and season-average prices, 1995-2007 (farm-sales weight)Crop Acreage Yield Supply Disappearance Avg. price year 1/ harvested per acre Production Beginning Total Total Domestic Exports per pound

stocks 1/ supply to growers1,000 acres Pounds ----------------------------------- Million pounds -------------------------------- Cents

Pennsylvania seedleaf filler (type 41)1995 4.8 2,150 10.3 20.5 30.8 12.8 12.8 * 145.01996 4.8 2,140 10.3 17.9 28.2 15.0 15.0 * 155.01997 4.9 2,200 10.8 13.2 24.0 11.0 11.0 * 160.01998 4.5 2,100 9.5 13.0 22.1 10.7 10.7 * 130.01999 3.2 1,850 5.9 11.4 17.3 7.8 7.8 * 130.02000 2.4 2,100 5.0 9.5 14.6 2.5 2.5 * 7/2001 2.0 2,060 4.1 12.1 16.2 4.0 4.0 * 165.02002 2.1 2,100 4.4 12.3 16.7 6.0 6.0 * 145.02003 2.4 2,200 5.3 10.7 15.9 6.2 6.2 * 140.02004 1.8 2,300 4.1 9.7 13.9 4.0 4.0 * 145.02005 1.3 2,200 2.9 9.9 12.8 2.0 2.0 * 145.02006 2/ 1.3 2,000 2.6 10.8 13.4 6.4 6.4 * 155.02007 3/ 1.8 2,200 4.0 7.0 11.0

Connecticut Valley binder (types 51-52)1995 1.2 1,969 2.4 1.4 3.8 2.2 2.2 * 388.81996 1.6 1,780 2.9 1.6 4.5 3.3 2.9 0.4 627.91997 2.0 1,783 3.6 1.2 4.8 2.8 2.2 0.6 727.31998 2.4 1,540 3.7 2.1 5.7 2.2 1.4 0.8 549.91999 2.5 1,668 4.2 3.5 7.7 4.9 4.6 0.3 473.72000 0.9 1,283 1.2 2.8 3.9 1.6 1.3 0.3 491.62001 2.2 1,786 4.0 2.3 6.3 4.5 4.3 0.2 558.82002 2.2 1,828 4.0 1.8 5.8 3.8 2.4 1.4 537.22003 2.4 1,429 3.4 2.1 5.5 3.9 2.7 1.2 358.42004 2.4 1,557 3.8 1.6 5.3 4.1 3.5 0.6 530.92005 2.4 1,701 4.1 1.2 5.3 3.6 2.9 0.7 564.52006 2/ 2.6 1,705 4.4 1.7 6.1 2.9 3.0 0.9 658.62007 3/ 2.8 1,732 4.9

Southern Wisconsin binder (type 54)1995 1.9 2,375 4.5 -- -- -- -- -- 145.01996 1.9 1,900 3.6 -- -- -- -- -- 148.01997 1.8 2,330 4.2 -- -- -- -- -- 150.01998 1.5 2,180 3.3 -- -- -- -- -- 150.01999 0.9 2,530 2.3 -- -- -- -- -- 149.02000 0.7 2,570 1.8 -- -- -- -- -- 155.02001 1.2 2,535 3.0 -- -- -- -- -- 165.02002 1.2 2,740 3.2 -- -- -- -- -- 175.02003 1.4 2,480 3.5 -- -- -- -- -- 175.02004 2/ 1.4 1,960 2.7 -- -- -- -- -- 175.02005 8/ -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --

Northern Wisconsin binder (type 55)1995 0.9 1,775 1.7 -- -- -- -- -- 145.01996 1.0 1,600 1.6 -- -- -- -- -- 150.01997 0.8 1,995 1.5 -- -- -- -- -- 152.01998 0.6 1,745 1.0 -- -- -- -- -- 149.01999 0.3 1,952 0.6 -- -- -- -- -- 145.02000 0.2 1,870 0.4 -- -- -- -- -- 155.02001 0.3 1,860 0.6 -- -- -- -- -- 165.02002 0.3 2,220 0.7 -- -- -- -- -- 175.02003 0.4 1,865 0.8 -- -- -- -- -- 173.02004 2/ 0.4 1,945 0.8 -- -- -- -- -- 175.02005 8/ -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --

Total Wisconsin binder (types 54-55)1995 2.8 2,254 6.2 14.6 30.8 9.0 9.0 0.0 145.01996 2.9 1,799 5.2 21.7 26.9 9.1 8.9 0.2 148.61997 2.6 2,231 5.7 17.8 23.5 7.3 6.9 0.4 150.51998 2.1 2,063 4.2 16.2 20.4 6.1 5.0 1.1 149.81999 1.2 2,388 2.8 14.3 17.1 4.4 3.4 1.0 149.02000 0.9 2,399 2.3 12.7 14.9 5.2 4.2 1.0 155.02001 1.5 2,397 3.6 9.7 13.3 4.6 4.4 0.2 165.02002 1.5 2,632 3.8 8.7 12.5 4.4 4.3 0.1 175.02003 1.8 2,338 4.3 8.1 12.4 3.8 1.3 2.5 174.62004 2/ 1.8 1,956 3.5 8.6 12.2 1.1 0.6 0.4 175.02005 3/ 0.0 -- 0.0 11.1 11.1 -- -- -- --See footnotes at end of table. Continued--

Page 23: TBS-263 Oct. 24, 2007 Tobacco Outlook€¦ · 10/24/2007  · 5. Tobacco Outlook /TBS-263/October 24, 2007 . Economic Research Service, USDA . Table 2--Per capita consumption of tobacco

23 Tobacco Outlook/TBS-263/October 24, 2007

Economic Research Service, USDA

Table 20--Cigar tobacco, types 41-61: Domestic supplies, disappearance, and season-average prices, 1995-2007 (farm-sales weight)Crop Acreage Yield Supply Disappearance Avg. price year 1/ harvested per acre Production Beginning Total Total Domestic Exports per pound

stocks 1/ supply to growers1,000 acres Pounds Million pounds -------------------------------- Cents

Total Cigar binder (types 51-55)1995 4.0 2,165 8.7 25.9 34.6 11.3 11.3 * 213.71996 4.5 1,792 8.1 23.3 31.4 12.4 11.8 * 321.11997 4.6 2,032 9.3 19.0 28.3 10.1 9.1 * 375.41998 4.4 1,782 7.9 18.3 26.1 8.4 6.5 * 335.31999 3.7 1,899 7.0 17.8 24.8 9.3 8.1 * 342.72000 1.8 1,853 3.4 15.4 18.9 6.8 5.5 * 269.02001 3.7 2,033 7.6 12.0 19.6 9.1 8.7 * 370.92002 3.7 2,147 7.8 10.5 18.4 8.1 6.7 * 360.82003 4.2 1,824 7.6 10.2 17.9 7.6 3.9 * 256.12004 4.2 1,728 7.3 10.2 17.5 5.2 4.1 * 358.42005 2.4 1,701 4.1 9.7 13.8 4.6 3.6 1.0 564.52006 2/ 2.6 1,705 4.4 9.2 13.7 1.0 -2.0 3.0 658.62007 3/ 2.8 1,732 4.9 -- -- -- -- -- --

Connecticut Valley shade-grown (type 61)1995 1.3 1,582 2.0 2.1 4.1 1.8 0.4 1.4 4/ 1996 1.4 1,473 2.1 2.3 4.4 2.4 0.2 2.0 4/ 1997 1.7 1,431 2.4 2.0 4.4 2.3 0.2 2.1 4/ 1998 1.7 1,413 2.4 2.0 4.5 3.2 0.5 2.7 4/ 1999 1.9 1,950 3.6 1.3 4.9 4.1 1.1 3.0 4/ 2000 1.3 1,437 1.8 0.8 2.6 1.5 0.2 1.3 2530.02001 1.3 1,327 1.7 1.1 2.8 1.0 0.2 0.8 2300.02002 1.0 1,201 1.2 1.8 2.9 2.2 1.5 0.8 2250.02003 1.1 1,164 1.2 0.7 1.9 1.6 1.1 0.5 2600.02004 1.2 1,540 1.8 0.4 2.2 1.6 0.8 0.8 2530.02005 1.2 1,348 1.6 1.2 5.3 3.6 2.9 0.7 2100.02006 2/ 1.1 1,312 1.4 1.7 6.1 2.0 1.1 0.9 --2007 3/ 1.2 1,541 1.9 0.5 2.4 -- -- -- --

Grand total cigar tobacco (types 41-61)1995 10.1 2,085 21.0 48.5 68.4 24.9 23.1 1.8 176.4 6/1996 10.7 1,905 20.4 43.5 63.1 28.9 24.7 4.2 228.0 6/1997 11.2 2,015 22.5 34.1 55.5 23.4 20.3 3.1 259.9 6/1998 10.6 1,857 19.8 33.3 52.7 22.3 17.7 4.6 223.4 6/1999 8.7 1,892 16.5 30.4 47.0 21.2 16.9 4.3 245.1 6/2000 5.5 1,865 10.3 25.8 36.0 10.7 8.1 2.6 1053.0 Does not include type 412001 7.0 1,913 13.4 25.3 38.7 14.1 12.9 1.2 550.32002 6.7 1,997 13.4 24.6 38.0 16.4 14.3 2.1 452.42003 7.7 1,850 14.2 21.6 35.7 15.4 12.5 3.0 417.12004 7.2 1,840 13.3 20.3 33.6 10.7 8.9 1.8 589.32005 4.9 1,751 8.6 20.6 29.2 8.0 6.3 1.8 718.22006 2/ 5.0 1,699 8.4 21.2 29.6 7.4 4.4 3.0 472.5 6/2007 3/ 5.8 1,828 10.6* = Negligible. ** = Not applicable. -- = Not available. 1/ October 1 for types 41-55; July 1 for type 61. 2/ Subject to change.3/ October 1 Crop Production Report . 4/ Growers of type 61 no longer provide price information. 5/ Subsequent years negligible. 6/ Does not include type 61. 7/ Ohio filler 41 prices not available as there is no production and stocks are negligible. 8/ Data no longer reported in Crop Production Report .Sources: Agricultural Marketing Service, Agricultural Prices Report, various issues and Tobacco Stocks Report, various issues, and Fire-cured and Dark air-cured Tobacco Market Review, various issues, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Crop Production Report , various issues; Bureau of the Census, Reports EM545 and IM146.Updated October 2007.

Page 24: TBS-263 Oct. 24, 2007 Tobacco Outlook€¦ · 10/24/2007  · 5. Tobacco Outlook /TBS-263/October 24, 2007 . Economic Research Service, USDA . Table 2--Per capita consumption of tobacco

24 Tobacco Outlook/TBS-263/October 24, 2007

Economic Research Service, USDA

Table 21--Per capita consumption of tobacco products in the United States (including overseas forces), 1996-2006Per capita Per capita 18 years and over Per male 18 years and over

Year 16 years All tobacco Large cigars Smoking Chewingand over Cigarettes 1/ Snuff 2/ products & cigarillos tobacco 2/ tobacco 2/

Number Number ------------- Pounds -------------- Number -------------- Pounds --------------

1996 2,355 2,445 4.1 0.31 4.83 31.9 0.52 0.12 0.631997 2,290 2,422 4.1 0.31 4.85 37.3 0.61 0.11 0.601998 2,190 2,275 3.6 0.31 4.32 37.1 0.61 0.12 0.531999 2,022 2,101 3.5 0.32 4.23 38.5 0.63 0.13 0.512000 1,974 2,049 3.4 0.33 4.10 38.0 0.62 0.13 0.482001 1,976 2,051 3.5 0.34 4.30 41.2 0.68 0.15 0.472002 1,909 1,982 3.4 0.34 4.16 41.8 0.68 0.16 0.432003 1,820 1,890 3.2 0.35 3.97 44.5 0.73 0.16 0.402004 1,747 1,814 3.1 0.36 3.87 47.9 0.79 0.15 0.372005 1,675 1,716 2.9 0.36 3.69 46.9 0.77 0.16 0.362006 3/ 1,650 1,691 2.9 0.38 3.69 47.8 0.78 0.15 0.371/ Unstemmed processing weight. 2/ Finished product weight. 3/ Preliminary

Sources: Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau, Monthly Statistical Release - Tobacco Products, Bureau of the Census, Population Estimates

http://www.census.gov/population/projections/nation/summary/.

Updated October 2006.

Page 25: TBS-263 Oct. 24, 2007 Tobacco Outlook€¦ · 10/24/2007  · 5. Tobacco Outlook /TBS-263/October 24, 2007 . Economic Research Service, USDA . Table 2--Per capita consumption of tobacco

25 Tobacco Outlook/TBS-263/October 24, 2007

Economic Research Service, USDA

Table 22--Estimated leaf used for cigarettes by kinds of tobacco, 1960-2005Calendar Farm-sales weight Unstemmed-processing weightyear Flue- Total Flue-

cured Burley Maryland domestic cured Burley Maryland Imported TotalMillion pounds

1960-64 742 455 16 1,213 661 404 16 123 1,2041965-69 666 477 21 1,164 594 426 21 150 1,1911970-74 623 459 19 1,101 556 410 19 186 1,1711975-79 594 464 21 1,079 529 414 21 268 1,2321980-84 480 424 25 930 428 379 25 374 1,2071985-89 457 375 24 856 408 336 24 403 1,1711990 532 397 21 950 475 354 21 378 1,2281991 484 408 16 908 432 364 16 422 1,2341992 463 348 16 827 413 310 16 520 1,2591993 416 331 13 760 371 296 13 549 1,2291994 434 353 12 799 391 317 12 447 1,2181995 475 368 12 855 427 331 12 467 1,2371996 464 314 12 790 418 282 12 545 1,2571997 452 317 13 783 407 286 12 563 1,2671998 403 268 7 677 362 241 6 477 1,0871999 344 223 6 572 309 200 5 487 1,0022000 348 177 6 530 313 159 5 455 9332001 338 188 4 530 304 169 4 490 9672002 287 136 4 427 259 123 3 528 9122003 268 108 5 381 241 97 4 447 7902004 281 94 7 382 253 85 6 514 8572005 1/ 318 126 2 446 286 114 1 448 849

Pounds per 1,000 cigarettes1960-64 1.396 .854 .030 2.280 1.242 .761 .030 .231 2.2641965-69 1.174 .840 .037 2.051 1.048 .751 .036 .264 2.0981970-74 1.026 .755 .031 1.812 .916 .674 .031 .305 1.9261975-79 .871 .680 .031 1.582 .777 .607 .030 .392 1.8061980-84 .689 .609 .036 1.334 .615 .544 .036 .539 1.7341985-89 .672 .552 .036 1.258 .600 .493 .036 .593 1.7221990 .750 .559 .030 1.339 .670 .499 .030 .533 1.7321991 .697 .587 .023 1.306 .622 .522 .023 .608 1.7771992 .641 .484 .022 1.147 .575 .431 .022 .723 1.7511993 .629 .501 .020 1.150 .561 .448 .020 .831 1.8591994 .670 .502 .017 1.188 .598 .448 .017 .616 1.6791995 .636 .493 .016 1.145 .572 .444 .016 .626 1.6581996 .615 .416 .016 1.047 .554 .374 .016 .722 1.6661997 .626 .439 .018 1.083 .563 .395 .016 .779 1.7531998 .583 .389 .010 .982 .525 .350 .009 .691 1.5751999 .567 .367 .010 .944 .510 .330 .009 .804 1.6532000 .584 .297 .010 .892 .526 .268 .009 .765 1.5682001 .601 .334 .007 .943 .541 .301 .006 .871 1.7192002 .540 .256 .007 .803 .486 .230 .006 .992 1.7142003 .536 .217 .009 .762 .483 .195 .008 .896 1.5822004 .478 .160 .012 .649 .430 .144 .011 .875 1.4592005 1/ .650 .258 .003 .911 .585 .232 .003 .916 1.736

Percent distribution1960-64 61.2 37.5 1.3 100 54.9 33.6 1.3 10.2 1001965-69 57.2 41.0 1.8 100 49.9 35.8 1.8 12.6 1001970-74 56.6 41.7 1.7 100 47.6 35.0 1.6 15.8 1001975-79 55.0 43.0 2.0 100 43.0 33.6 1.7 21.7 1001980-84 51.6 45.6 2.7 100 35.4 31.4 2.1 31.1 1001985-89 53.4 43.8 2.8 100 34.9 28.6 2.1 34.5 1001990 56.0 41.7 2.2 100 38.7 28.8 1.7 30.8 1001991 53.3 44.9 1.8 100 35.0 29.4 1.4 34.2 1001992 55.9 42.2 1.9 100 32.8 24.6 1.2 41.3 1001993 54.7 43.6 1.7 100 30.2 24.1 1.0 44.7 1001994 56.4 42.2 1.4 100 35.6 26.7 1.0 36.7 1001995 55.5 43.1 1.4 100 34.5 26.8 1.0 37.7 1001996 58.8 39.7 1.5 100 33.2 22.5 1.0 43.4 1001997 57.8 40.5 1.7 100 32.1 22.5 0.9 44.4 1001998 59.4 39.6 1.0 100 33.3 22.2 0.6 43.9 1001999 60.0 38.9 1.1 100 30.9 20.0 0.5 48.6 1002000 65.5 33.3 1.1 100 33.5 17.1 0.6 48.8 1002001 63.8 35.5 0.8 100 31.5 17.5 0.4 50.6 1002002 67.3 31.9 0.8 100 28.4 13.4 0.3 57.8 1002003 70.4 28.4 1.2 100 30.5 12.3 0.5 56.6 1002004 73.6 24.6 1.8 100 29.5 9.9 0.7 59.9 1002005 1/ 71.3 28.3 0.3 100 33.7 13.4 0.2 52.8 1001/ Subject to revision.Sources: Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau, Monthly Statistical Release - Tobacco Products; Bureau of the Census, Reports EM545 and IM146.

Updated October 2006.