Taliban Organizational Analysis MILREVIEW May-June 2008

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

  • 8/3/2019 Taliban Organizational Analysis MILREVIEW May-June 2008

    1/16

    58 M-Jun 2008 Military review

    Major Shahid Afsar, Pakistan Army;

    Major Chris Samples, U.S. Army; and

    Major Thomas Wood, U.S. Army

    Major Shahid Afsar is a Pakistani army

    infantry ofcer attending the Naval

    Postgraduate School in Monterey, CA.

    MAJ Afsar has served in the Federally

    Administered Tribal Areas in support

    of Operation Almizan.

    Major Chris Samples is a U.S. Army

    Special Forces ofcer attending

    the Naval Postgraduate School in

    Monterey, CA. MAJ Samples has

    deployed to Afghanistan three times

    in support of Operation Enduring

    Freedom.

    Major Thomas Wood is a U.S. Army

    psychological operations ofcer at-

    tending the Naval Postgraduate

    School in Monterey, CA. MAJ Wood

    has deployed to Iraq in support of

    Operation Iraqi Freedom.

    _____________

    PHOTO: The Taliban ag displays the

    Shahadah, the Islamic creed, which is

    the Muslim declaration of belief in the

    oneness of God and acceptance of

    Muhammad as his nal prophet.

    If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result

    of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every vic-

    tory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor

    yourself, you will succumb in every battle.Sun Tzu1

    One of the most widely recognized images

    p p w t c

    11 spb 2001. t a-Q ,

    tb a, b u v

    u . t u u bu bu

    tb, v .

    t tb u k v, uk

    m e, v 9/11. f-

    1994 , tb v up-

    v v u u v u a.2

    suu v pp, tb p b v

    a uu b, p v , p

    , . t tb k a

    pp b v px a

    b b, , .

    dp quk v 2002 b U.s.

    -tb up, tb . i , ,

    u nato U.s. p, a n

    a (ana), ppu v, v u-

    a . i u u

    pv v b , v u Pk. c, bv u k

    bu bu b .

    Historyt tb b p b u v:

    a uu.

    t 1979 sv v uj u .

    t v sv 1989.

    The views reected in this

    article are the authors

    own. They do not reect the

    ofcial opinions or policy

    of either the U.S. Army or

    the Pakistan Army.

  • 8/3/2019 Taliban Organizational Analysis MILREVIEW May-June 2008

    2/16

    59Military review M-Jun 2008

    T H E T A L I B A N

    m u .

    t tb p p

    p - pp.

    t v 2002.

    t u. 3

    t tb p su mu

    Pu. h, a

    up up

    a u u u

    up u b. t

    v , v,

    vp Pu. s ax 326

    B.c., v

    a, P, s,

    Ku, sk, hu, ab, tuk, m,

    B, ru, , a

    nato .4

    f p, Pu v p.

    n u p v b b ubu

    p.5 t u-b

    qu u bb b

    u u. t Pu p

    v, u

    qup -

    v u b x .

    t p Pu

    tbuk: A Pashtun is never at peace,

    except when he is at war.6

    t Pu p u, v

    u.7

    t g g 19 u p

    p u p p Pu

    .8 i v Pu

    u p, u

    a-a w (1839, 1878,

    1919). a uuu p

    a, ru B

    bu b u.

    Bu pv , 1893 bu b B i

    a, du l,

    a

    Pu v b. t B

    v uu u b

    B-i b b

    b , p Pk

    f a tb a (fata)

    p.9

    Pu qu u

    qu 20 u, v

    b a k u z s

    u- u (1973). t u

    u cu Pp

    d P a v

    v 1978. a vv

    u , b mujahideen,

    pk, bu

    bu x, p,

    pu u , p-

    p .10

    t sv U p p a-

    db 1979 u

    i u

    i p mu c

    a pub sv U u-

    b.

    11

    t u uj j. i p, sv

    bu uu p. i

    10 up, sv

    a u p k

    1.3 a, uu

    ub u u, u

    5.5 a u p i

    Pk. (m u

    b b Pk.)12

    dp v v ,

    sv v b upp u, p Pu

    , ub v ,

    vu u b uj,

    p b sv (

    v p).13 i fbu 1989,

    sv a. sx

    b , sv v u

    p u v

    . t u pv upp

    pu, bu -

    v . a v , u -

    u v pp ap 1992.

    d ujp quk

    v v. e

    p p. f bk

    u, p p. s

    b - ppu

    v tb

    k .14

  • 8/3/2019 Taliban Organizational Analysis MILREVIEW May-June 2008

    3/16

    60 M-Jun 2008 Military review

    t tb

    Pu u

    p, Pk,

    -

    v p v

    wb i u

    u (talib)

    p uvv

    pp u

    p.15 t u

    p

    p ,

    b,

    v tb,

    p v -

    u u u

    p.

    16

    t t-b

    Pu pp,

    ppu p p.

    i nvb 1994, tb

    K u a. t

    u u Pu

    , mu mu o,

    k Pp mu

    pub l fu(Amir-ul-Momineen).17 t v,

    ub p t-b , o

    ju a, bu mu.18 i

    pv v

    b up

    Pu uu.19

    t tb p p b

    1997 95 p u.20 dp

    up, up u upp

    u a ppu-

    bu x v

    i . t tb b v, u, ; pb

    k u ; u

    a -su ppu;

    upp su up

    Pk. mu o o

    b-l, tb a-Q

    p u .

    o u x B-l 9/11

    op eu f (oef),

    p p tb a-Q

    a. m tb

    a , u-

    u u.

    t -v ppu u xp

    -Pu v-

    Kbu v u pu.

    i Pk fata n w f Pv- (nwfP), Pu p tb

    v b Pk u .

    du ru up a, Pk-

    U.s. u fata u p

    p uj, k b

    b x. t pu ,

    bu p, ux

    a u v.

    a sv p, uj

    ( ab) fata bb

    b u . du , u,, uu ,

    v tb vb. a 9/11

    oef, fata b

    upp tb

    Pk v bu upp oef.

    Pk p v 100,000 p

    p fata u

    p u

    tb a. r, tb

    An Afghan man passes by a line of abandoned Soviet military vehicles near Asadabad,Afghanistan, 24 December 1989, 10 months after the Russian withdrawal from the country.

    aP

    Photo,

    JoeGl

  • 8/3/2019 Taliban Organizational Analysis MILREVIEW May-June 2008

    4/16

    61Military review M-Jun 2008

    T H E T A L I B A N

    p Pk j

    ub tk--tb Pk-

    (Pk tb mv). t pp

    Bu mu .21

    Culturecuu pbb p

    uu a.

    w, m h p, -

    x . . . t . . .

    , b u u

    u u -

    .22 t tb p v

    Pu . a t J,

    nv Pu s P-

    cuu c su, w

    u b tb u-

    u Pu , u b k.23

    Pu uu p Pashtun-

    wali , p i

    p Pu.24 a Pu u

    [] []

    Pu.25 t v

    ubj v jirga.26 s

    p u

    Nang (). a b b

    p v pb p

    . t Pu u u,

    , ,

    v .

    Badal (v). w k

    b v

    , v . i

    k. t v u

    b v k p

    u. t tb u b

    u v u b bb -kk p.27

    Melmastia (p). hp

    p u b v u

    xp u v. a Pu

    u Pu

    u , pvu

    p b p.28 t tb

    u b

    v Pu b.

    Nanawatay ( k v). t pp

    b, Pu k v

    . t -

    p u b

    v k p . n

    v b. t tb

    p ; x v

    p j u

    v b.

    Hamsaya ( ).

    h vu u p

    b pv . f

    xp, u x

    v . t p xp b

    quk v . i

    xp tb p

    quk 1990.29

    au v, Pu b u . t p

    u u-

    v p

    . a Christian Science Monitor ,

    t u

    u u u.

    i, Pu

    p b b b, ,

    .30

    Religiont tb up a pp, 99 p mu (80

    p su, 19 p s).31 i a

    i , b

    p-i b b u

    Pu.32 t tb v u

    uvv p

    i.

    t v u

    u u

    sv-a . w su ab up-p, x b

    i, s

    p.33 i

    a r , t tb p

    b bu v

    i xp .34 t j a

    v i,

    bu b tb v

    .

  • 8/3/2019 Taliban Organizational Analysis MILREVIEW May-June 2008

    5/16

    62 M-Jun 2008 Military review

    Ethnicitya 42 p Pu, 27 p

    tjk, 9 p h, 9 p Ubk, 4 p

    ak, 3 p tuk, 2 p B,

    4 p .35

    t v Pu Pk

    a, v b

    fata nwfP. au bu

    , k, -

    , k x u

    v , v j b

    up: du, g, K, sb,

    guu. t du g

    u.36

    Durranis. t du b ,

    u a,

    pv p Pu

    a s du u -

    1747. a a s

    u a bu

    u b. t u p

    a, h K, du.

    Ghilzais. t g b up

    a

    b v du. s j tb , u mu

    o, g.37 t g p

    v bu b k

    B.38

    Karlanris. t K, b,

    up Pu.39 t

    b b Pk a

    w, Ku, P, K, Pk,

    Pkk.40

    Sarbanis. au -

    p p, jup k up sb. t

    up,

    P, u b u

    m, yuu,

    s,

    s

    t

    B.41 t -

    p

    Pu.

    Ghurghushts. t jb up guu.

    t u -

    B u

    b u Kk, m-

    k, P, mu K.

    s up ub-b,

    k gu s,

    b u nwfP.42

    AFGHANISTAN

    PAKISTAN

    SARBANI

    KARLANRI

    GHILZAI

    DURRANI

    GHURGHUSHT

    NOte: adpd fom Johnson nd Mson, Understanding the Taliban and Insurgency in Afghanistan.

    Figure 2. Location of major Pashtun tribal groups.

    0 mi 125 mi 250 mi 375 mi 500 mi 625 mi

    AFGHANISTAN

    PAKISTAN

    Turkmen

    PamiriKyrgyz

    Tajiks

    Uzbek

    Hazara

    Nuristani

    Pashtuns

    Pashtuns

    Pashtuns

    Balochi

    Punjabi

    Sindhi

    Aimak

    Figure 1. Tribal areas, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

  • 8/3/2019 Taliban Organizational Analysis MILREVIEW May-June 2008

    6/16

    63Military review M-Jun 2008

    T H E T A L I B A N

    Resourcest tb u u,

    b . t p u

    x u u , u -

    , pu .43

    Religious allies. a -

    , a-Q pu v tb u u ,

    tb - ,

    pv v , p (-

    ), (v pv

    xpv vied u),

    upp. tk--n--

    --mu, up fata

    nwfP s , tb

    p. a upp -

    tb c a i

    mv Ubk (imU), hb--igubu (hg), e tuk i

    mv (etim), ub , ,

    b.

    s Pu b

    v v i x

    u . t

    u u tb. m a

    sq, xp, xp p-

    : t p

    i v P-

    u sv up

    a uu. t Pu tb

    up [ a]. . . .s

    p p -sv j,

    qu pu b u u

    uj .44

    Human terrain. t u u-

    u tb u. sp

    pu, up u

    upp pp. t Pu,

    vub b pv b k

    u Kbu v, v b

    b tb . mv,

    Pu up u v-

    u b a t-

    au b p Pu

    v u bu ppb u

    tb.45 tu, ppx 28

    Pu a Pk bu

    u, upp p, , p,

    k tb u.46

    t pv upb -

    p v, tb

    uub -up bu

    ied b. w

    GHURGHUSHT

    Gaduns

    Panris

    Kakars

    Luni

    Tortarins

    Spintarins

    SOUTHERN EASTERN

    SARBANI

    Shinwari

    Daudzai

    KasiZamand

    Khalils

    Ghoriah Khakhay

    Tarklanris

    Muk

    Mand

    Khweshgis

    Ketrans

    Kasis

    Safi

    Kand

    Farmuli

    Sulaiman

    Bannuchis

    Daurs(Dawars)

    KODAY KAKAY

    Orakzai

    UtmanKhel

    Malikmar

    Bangash

    Khattak

    Mangal

    Zadran

    Makhbil

    Khugiani

    Turis

    Jaji (Zazi)

    Wardaks

    Wazir

    Amadzai

    Mahsud

    Gurbuz

    Utmanzai

    Afridi

    Jowakis

    Adam Khel

    Bakakhel

    KabulkhelJanikhel

    Amadzai

    Nasir

    Andar

    Alikhel

    Hotaki

    Jaji

    SuleimanKhel

    Kharoti

    Tokhi

    Taraki

    Kharufi

    Lodis

    Niazis

    Suris

    Nuranis

    Lohanis

    GHILZAI

    BITANI

    ZIRAK PANJPAO

    Barakzai

    Nurzais

    Alizais

    Ishaqzais

    Mohammadzai

    Achakzai

    Popalzai

    Alikozai

    Saddozais

    WESTERN

    DURRANI (ABDALI) GHURGHUSHT

    Gaduns

    Panris

    Kakars

    Luni

    Tortarins

    Spintarins

    SOUTHERN

    GHURGHUSHT

    Gaduns

    Panris

    Kakars

    Luni

    Tortarins

    Spintarins

    Musa Khel

    Gaduns

    Panris

    Kakars

    Luni

    Tortarins

    Spintarins

    SOUTHERN EASTERN

    SARBANI

    Shinwari

    Daudzai

    KasiZamand

    Khalils

    Ghoriah Khakhay

    Tarklanris

    Muk

    Mand

    Khweshgis

    Ketrans

    Kasis

    Safi

    Kand

    Farmuli

    EASTERN

    SARBANI

    EASTERN

    SARBANI

    Shinwari

    Daudzai

    KasiZamand

    Mohmands

    Khalils

    Ghoriah Khakhay

    Tarklanris

    Muk

    Mand

    Umars

    Khweshgis

    Ketrans

    Kasis

    Safi

    Kand

    Farmuli

    Sulaiman

    Bannuchis

    Daurs(Dawars)

    KODAY KAKAY

    Orakzai

    UtmanKhel

    Malikmar

    Bangash

    Khattak

    Mangal

    Zadran

    Makhbil

    Khugiani

    Turis

    Jaji (Zazi)

    Wardaks

    Wazir

    Amadzai

    Mahsud

    Gurbuz

    Utmanzai

    Afridi

    Jowakis

    Adam Khel

    Bakakhel

    KabulkhelJanikhel

    KARLANRI

    Sulaiman

    Bannuchis

    Daurs(Dawars)

    KODAY KAKAY

    UtmanKhel

    Malikmar

    Bangash

    Malikmar

    Bangash

    Khattak

    Mangal

    Zadran

    Makhbil

    Khugiani

    Turis

    Jaji (Zazi)

    Wardaks

    Wazir

    Amadzai

    Mahsud

    Gurbuz

    Utmanzai

    Afridi

    Jowakis

    Adam Khel

    Bakakhel

    KabulkhelJanikhel

    KabulkhelJanikhel

    Amadzai

    Nasir

    Andar

    Alikhel

    Hotaki

    Jaji

    SuleimanKhel

    Kharoti

    Tokhi

    Taraki

    Kharufi

    Lodis

    Niazis

    Suris

    Nuranis

    Lohanis

    GHILZAI

    BITANI

    Amadzai

    Nasir

    Andar

    Alikhel

    Hotaki

    Jaji

    SuleimanKhel

    Kharoti

    Tokhi

    Taraki

    Kharufi

    Lodis

    Niazis

    Suris

    Nuranis

    Lohanis

    GHILZAI

    BITANI

    ZIRAK PANJPAO

    Barakzai

    Nurzais

    Alizais

    Ishaqzais

    Mohammadzai

    Achakzai

    Popalzai

    Alikozai

    Saddozais

    WESTERN

    DURRANI (ABDALI)

    ZIRAK PANJPAOZIRAK PANJPAO

    Barakzai

    Nurzais

    Alizais

    Ishaqzais

    Mohammadzai

    Achakzai

    Popalzai

    Alikozai

    Saddozais

    WESTERN

    DURRANI (ABDALI)

    Yusufzais

    Orakzai

    HILL TRIBES

    Figure 3. Pashtun tribal groups and sub-tribes.

  • 8/3/2019 Taliban Organizational Analysis MILREVIEW May-June 2008

    7/16

    64 M-Jun 2008 Military review

    - b

    , tb u xp

    k uvv

    v. a bu

    uj uu u u

    a-sv , ubqu v ,

    tb p.

    Drug revenue. t tb k u

    u , pv vu

    b. w pv

    , a vu b -.47

    t 2006 pu v v $3

    b.48 t 2007 v . a-

    u pu 93 p

    pu - a

    pu .49 t x

    u tb v u, bu

    x , , u k. w up v pu,

    k v u u:

    u u,

    bu p w, p eup,

    90 p a.

    t u k tb p

    p, p, , b

    i rpub a (iroa).

    Physical Terrain

    t p tb, p, p .

    a fata p v 250,000

    qu , 70 p

    uu x pu, k

    u, v. 50 o 12 p

    b.

    su a

    xp h rv .51 l

    u uu u-

    vp vu x. r

    v p up u v b

    uu bu b . Bu

    b v p, u

    . i x u

    u , v, ppu-

    u u p. mup pk

    b p v u b

    uv k

    v p v

    xpv p u. i ,

    uv u v.52

    lk uu, u p

    vu u b . a

    p pp,

    pp .53

    Strategya t h. J, w

    tb u p-9/11 u. . . .

    t tb v b p :

    -qu a

    b p. t Pu-

    , a-Q-p.54

    t tb u p.

    t u ,

    u u v-

    : u ; , ubquu, p . i

    u u[,] uub

    xu. . .55 a qu tb x

    t a v , bu v

    .56 t p u , p:

    mb u pub a

    Pk.

    r Pu b u Pu-

    u b p-

    Pu ubju b p

    -Pu v Kbu.Bu up

    uu k

    iroa, , gv

    Pk.57

    o w u xp b u k p-

    , u a

    pu u Pk

    b v i .58

    Structuret tb v u-u . B 9/11,

    up p v,

    p v. hv, u

    u v, b

    v p,

    p px

    v b p

    u.59 (s u 4.)

  • 8/3/2019 Taliban Organizational Analysis MILREVIEW May-June 2008

    8/16

    65Military review M-Jun 2008

    T H E T A L I B A N

    sp p tb p

    u u qu, u

    k U su r s, p-

    u p

    k vp ied. o p pv

    p p k.

    t tb k -

    , b

    . a up b

    tb. i

    tb

    u upp p. t

    upp tb , bu

    . t u p pv

    b bu.

    a p tb v b 10

    50 p- -

    v p

    . t u ,

    , ppu- v

    upp . c -

    u v v. e

    p k p,

    p p tb

    MullahMuhammad Omar

    Mullah B eraderDeputy

    All Pashtun Units

    Mullah Bakht

    Senior MilitaryStrategist

    ProxyPolitical Wing?

    RegionalCommanders

    SupremeTaliban Shura

    Liaison fromAl Qaeda,

    TNSM, HIG, etc

    SpecializedDepartments

    Central AsianOrigin Units

    Tahir Yuldashev

    Tehrik-i-TalibanPakistan

    Baitullah Mehsud

    MediaUmmat TV

    Radio Shariat

    Special Warfare(Suicide Squads)

    Intelligence Finance Research andDevelopment

    Central Training

    Figure 4. An organizational diagram of the Taliban.

    Couriers

    and

    Equipment

    Manpowersupport

    FinancesManpowerIntelligence

    BombMakers

    A. RECIPROCAL C. POOLEDB. SEQUENTIAL

    Cell BCell A Cell A Cell B

    Cell BCell A

    Command

    Command

    Figure 5. Forms of interdependence in the Taliban.

  • 8/3/2019 Taliban Organizational Analysis MILREVIEW May-June 2008

    9/16

    66 M-Jun 2008 Military review

    p upp; qu

    p p

    u, qup, ;

    p p -

    p, ied-k,

    , p ,

    upp.

    Leadership. t tb k mu

    o . t o

    b sup tb su, tb

    v b v.60 mu du,

    xp, pb

    b b shura. t (2003)

    b u p u Ju-

    hqq, su r m, mu

    du (p b mu Bk),61 ak

    m o, ak m m,

    mu obu, h abu mj, mu

    m ru, mu B, mu

    abu rq aku.62 m

    v.

    a v, p

    b buu u

    u. t tb p u

    MullahMuhammad Omar

    Mullah Berader

    DeputyAll Pashtun Units

    Mullah BakhtSenior Military

    Strategist

    Supreme

    Taliban Shu ra

    MediaUstad Yassir andAmir Muqtaddi

    Tehrik TalibanPakistan and

    Waziristan (7)

    Baitullah Mehsud

    Farah (1)Mullah

    Hayatullah

    Kandhar,

    Oruzgan,Helmand (2)

    Abdur Razaak

    Ghazni, Paktia,and Paktika (3)Saif ur Rehman

    (KIA) andJalal ud Din Haggani

    Zabul (4)Akhtar Osmani (KIA)

    Replacementunknown

    Nangarhar, Kunar,and Laghman (5)

    Maulvi Qadir

    Parwan, Kapisa,Wardak, and

    Kabul (6)Anwar Dangar

    NOte: ths dpcon of gon s s fo uson on nd dos no psn h cu o bounds of h supposd tbn commnds.

    Figure 6. Supposed regional Taliban leadership.

  • 8/3/2019 Taliban Organizational Analysis MILREVIEW May-June 2008

    10/16

    67Military review M-Jun 2008

    T H E T A L I B A N

    p

    pv b uu

    p.63 d

    ub-

    b bu, u

    v. (s u 6.)

    Decision-making. t tb p

    bv u , u p

    , u mu o, k

    , b b p-

    v p uv

    p. t tb

    . t

    u j upp.

    c b uu v

    upp ppu.

    Coordination and communication. o u,

    tb u , u. t sup su u p-

    , u v ,

    v v fatwas,

    . t v -p

    u bv. w

    sup su p, p

    u v b u

    v up.

    a tb p

    p u k .

    f u k, k p p

    b p

    p v (u 7). h-

    v, p, k u

    p, tb p

    upp , v,

    (u 7b), kb p

    up u

    p. t tb uu

    u k , u

    v p p.64

    t v vb ,

    tb u u.65 t u k

    b k p u.

    t tb u - -

    u p xv .

    s tb Pk u i

    pp pup u

    .Nameh-i-shab ( ), uu ppu ,

    tb u.66

    Recruitment and training. t tb

    v u p. t

    u u

    b u v b pp u,

    v, v, -

    u b. t u ub.

    ru xp ,

    b , p p, k,

    u , .

    A. Typical reporting and directionfor policy decisions

    B. Reporting and direction forconduct of coordinated operations

    Omer

    Supreme

    Taliban Shura

    Regional Commands

    Local Command

    Village Cells

    Individual Talibans

    MullahOmer

    Supreme

    Taliban Shura

    Regional Commands

    Local Command

    Village Cells

    Individual Talibans

    VillageCell B

    RegionalCommander

    CentralTraining

    LocalCommander

    2

    VillageCell C

    LocalCommander

    1

    VillageCell A

    Figure 7. Taliban linkages, coordination, and reporting mechanisms.

  • 8/3/2019 Taliban Organizational Analysis MILREVIEW May-June 2008

    11/16

    68 M-Jun 2008 Military review

    a a u

    p, bpp

    ux u. t b u ,

    tb u b u

    v U.s. nato p.67

    Bu v Pu b -

    , u uu p b

    k. t v --jb

    u pv b p-

    v u p

    Pu b. Bv, pu, p

    u u p . s,

    b p

    .

    Motivation. t tb k u

    b p v,

    , bjv. s

    J b vb tb u:

    t p tb p

    uu k . . .

    v b p []

    i, u

    w , w pupp

    v Kbu.

    t b u u

    upp k.

    t tb p u u

    v up bb, uk nato a

    , pk up u . m

    jihad.

    r, v bu

    up, k

    2001, bu

    v k u b a,

    U.s., nato .68

    t tb pu u -

    b

    pp v b , u pp k p, u

    vuu k b .

    t pu u b -

    , u u ,

    ubj k p v,

    b u.

    t tb v

    u, xp -

    . i db 2007, tb

    u u (layeha) u

    u b.69 t

    p b -

    v u;

    xp, Ju 2008 k mu

    m du b u

    i .70

    The Taliban Securing its Futuret tb pp u uu

    . i u v-

    ppu :

    cv pbv

    pp u

    v bk

    u tb.

    i p uv

    v, u vp v uu.

    ex p u -

    a b x

    p tb

    uu b , pu Pk,

    u b

    u xp.

    Coercive capabilities. t tb u -

    -- u u

    p v u v

    p tb ppu , u u

    v ppu u.71

    t u

    tb p. a k mu o

    rb h-k p

    pp tb .72 n, tb

    k v Pu

    b ppu.

    t tb h pv

    , t pp u. t v u ,

    v u .73

    o u, b v, p

    g pv u: Pp

    pk v pu . . . o

    , b up u.

    t v u

    p p.74 i Kb, tb

    p u x Kb

    v u pk,

    p a v

  • 8/3/2019 Taliban Organizational Analysis MILREVIEW May-June 2008

    12/16

    69Military review M-Jun 2008

    T H E T A L I B A N

    . f , tb v b

    b, k v

    uv. y u

    . w u ? t v

    p u pb k,

    pp p

    p .75

    cv u tb

    u u. a-

    hu r w, tb k u

    699 v u 2006.76 t tb

    1 b, p b a ngo su-

    o, vu

    v ppu x

    2007.77

    t tb p v

    b pp,

    upp tb. cv, pp bv

    uu v, u

    u v u,

    ppp p u. t

    pp b b, pv up-

    p tb p p

    .

    t tb p u

    ppu u iroa. t ngo s

    o p x 2007

    50 p b

    ppu tb pp-

    up.78 m -

    , bu 60 p bu p

    . f p k vv

    - p (k-pp

    ), u, ied k, .79

    t tb pv k-

    -u p

    a. a eup u ,

    [t pp] b v

    v pv,

    u pv b

    v b b v, b kp

    ub.80 t u tb

    p u,

    p b , u

    tb p u b.t tb v pp up u u

    bb v: 2006,

    ub u k kb.81

    Pu u b a-Q

    tb, v u p

    b tb

    rb h u

    v. t u p v pu

    u v ppu

    u .82 a

    u, Un h c- hu

    r u

    tb b-

    v

    u

    iroa.83 t

    b k:

    a

    bu

    k p

    b. o u,

    tb pp

    p

    v pb

    v u, uu-

    b

    , 2007

    u b a-J :

    219

    292

    98

    39

    24

    198

    0 50 100 150 200 250 300

    AOG Offensive Ops

    IMF Offensi ve Ops

    AOG Suicide Attacks

    IMF Force Protection

    AOG Target Kill ing

    Criminal SAF

    Table 1. Causes of NGO reported casualties.

    leGeND: AOG, Armed Opposition Groups; IMF, International military forces (NATO, U.S.) ; SAF, Small arms re

  • 8/3/2019 Taliban Organizational Analysis MILREVIEW May-June 2008

    13/16

    70 M-Jun 2008 Military review

    t tb v u u... [k

    ] u ... [] k

    u i ju . t v

    v k u,

    pp v pb v.84 t

    u upp tb b

    ppu

    a v.cv a u

    u u . i 2006,

    tb k 20

    200 .85 i 2007,

    300 .86 i Ju 2007, tb

    pu b

    x u pv a-. [t] tb u,

    ; , t tb (i)

    u.87 t up p bu ,

    - u

    u u. t tb u-

    uu u, pp, .

    Internal influences. t tb pv

    b . a b u

    p, b up up p

    v. t v k

    xp p b v u iroa.88

    f p-k tb u

    b iroa p mu abu

    s rk x : t

    g s tb . . .

    k v.89

    t tb b -

    v. c

    2005, a p

    tb b j

    a p-

    p . a

    p :

    t u

    k

    [tb] -

    [tb]

    u ,

    p t -

    u u p

    bu k v

    u

    v pp p k v

    p pb, v

    u b p -

    v.90

    w b u u -

    u tb b u

    v , pp v

    p v v u

    u iroa.

    m, tb p -

    v, pv b

    cu ie a db 2006.91 t

    tb k p v

    x, p ab

    ju upp .

    Regional and international influence. t Ju

    2007 r mqu ib -

    tb b u p

    . t p tb-

    ib u pk

    - v , -

    u Pk p px. i u , 10

    v 90 k.92 t p

    u v v u pk

    P mu .

    m , Pk-

    p B Bu

    v tb k uu

    Pk. B Pk v

    cia v p pb -

    5%10%

    25%

    25%

    35%

    Armed Attacks Arson IED Abduction Intimidation

    Figure 8. NGO and AOG contact.

  • 8/3/2019 Taliban Organizational Analysis MILREVIEW May-June 2008

    14/16

    71Military review M-Jun 2008

    T H E T A L I B A N

    Bu mu, tb

    mv Pk.93mu p v

    p mu o, -

    b .94 t x tb

    u Pk -

    uu p xp .

    t tb u

    v Ju 2007 bu pp

    xu g vv

    pj ( v a) k-

    pp bu su K .

    tb b xu g

    g

    3,000 p a. t K

    tb

    K 200 p . a

    tb k K, su

    K v v tb pu p u a.

    (t .)95

    t p b tb v

    . i k r mqu

    u u p, pu Pk

    v tb- u u

    , pu pub upp

    tb p p u.

    w -k k, tb

    xp v b p

    u

    v.

    t u tb x b

    b U.s. p-

    v bu a. w

    p , tb

    -

    a .

    r, U.s. s d rb g

    nato tb u-

    a. g Los Angeles Times

    u k

    uu b bu

    v.96 t n, U

    K, c, p v u

    u u a, p-

    g k.

    97

    c n d- P , Jk l, k

    u b pp p v c u

    a. a nato pk p, i

    pu pu bu

    v b . i v

    v b (u , Bu

    i k ).98 g u, ,

    k b

    upp p.99 (s tb 2.)

    NOte: th csu fgus shon h do no ncud h csus of Pksn focs hch bd o b o 1100 Kia o d.

    Table 2. Coalition deaths by year.

    12 0 12

    49 20

    6948 9

    57 52 658

    99 31

    130

    98 93

    191

    117115

    232

    475

    274

    749

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    800

    2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Total

    U.S.

    Other

    Total

  • 8/3/2019 Taliban Organizational Analysis MILREVIEW May-June 2008

    15/16

    72 M-Jun 2008 Military review

    obvu, tb u u-

    v, bu

    u u .

    P uu

    tb a, u :

    tb b -u b pu-

    bk u b.

    tu, v pb uvv ,

    b U.s. nato p, vu

    u Pu- a

    p p u fata

    Pk. t

    pb . i

    , tb p u

    v k k 9/11, B,

    l . MR

    1. Sun tzu, The Art of War, (17 Jnu 2008).

    2. Mdss (abc:) s h abc od fo n p of schoo, scuo gous (of n gon). in hs c, mdss f o ismc goussmns n afghnsn nd Pksn.

    3. Mujhdn (abc: , , suggs) s m fo Musmsfghng n n p of sugg. Mujhd nd s pu, mujhdn, com fom hsm abc oo s jhd (sugg). a od s pofu pson ho com-mnds n md foc o o hm, no o h gonmn; s su, h njos dfco cono of sub-non . wods nd gon songmn h bn consn chcsc of afghn hso.

    4. ason Bhnk, The Conquests of Alexander the Great (Mnnpos, MN:

    tn-Fs Cnu Books, 2007), 99.5. lous Dup, Afghanistan(Pncon, NJ: Pncon Uns Pss, 1978),145.

    6. thoms H. Johnson, On h edg of h Bg Mudd: th tbn rsu-gnc n afghnsn, China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly 5, no. 2 (2007): 118, (21Nomb 2007).

    7. Sphn tnn, Afghanistan: A Military History from Alexander the Great tothe Fall of the Taliban(Cmbdg, Ma, euospn, 2003), 134.

    8. Fo dd hso of h G Gm s P Hopkk, The Great Game:The Struggle for Empire in Central Asia(N yok: Kodnsh Gob, 1994).

    9. Fo ds of h dmns ngmns n h Fd admnsdtb as (Fata), s The Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, (27 Fbu 2008), nd Noo u Hq,rshd ahmd Khn, nd Mqsood u Hsn Nu, Fd admnsd tbas of Pksn, Islamabad Policy Research Institute Papers, o. 10 (Mch 2005), (27 Fbu 2008).

    10. Fo ds of h foms h ups h counsd, s rdk Skosk,Dust of the Saints: A Journey to Herat in Time of War (Khak-i Avaliya) (N yok:Pgon Hous Pubshs, 1990), 180-87

    11. Knnh Kzmn, Afghanistan: Post-War Governance, Security, and U.S.Policy(wshngon, DC: Congsson rsch Sc, 2007).12. russn Gn Sff, The Soviet-Afghan War: How a Superpower Fought

    and Lost, ds. nd ns. ls w. Gu nd Mch a. Gss (lnc: UnsPss of Knss, 2002), 255-56.

    13. Mohmmd yousf nd Mk adkn, Afghanistan-the Bear Trap: the Defeatof a Superpower(Hon, Pa : Csm, 2001), 159.

    14. Kzmn, 3. S so th tbn, Program for Culture and Conict Stud-ies, (27 Nomb2007).

    15. whhbsm (abc: ) s bnch of ism pccd b hos hofoo h chngs of Muhmmd ibn abdu whhb, f hom h momns nmd. th ngs of such schos s ahmd bn Hnb nd ibn tmnfuncd ibn abdu whhb, ho noducd Sh (ismc) o h abnPnnsu. th m whhb (Wahhbya) s usd b h pop dscbs.th cun pfd m s Sfsm fom Salaf as-Salih, h pous pdcs-sos, s popgd mn b ibn tm, hs sudns ibn a Qm -Jz,nd b Muhmmd bn abdu whb nd hs foos.

    16. P Msdn, The Taliban: War, Religion and the New Order in Afghanistan(london nd Kch: Oxfod Uns Pss; N yok: Zd Books ld., 1998),

    22-35.17. th cok of h Poph Mohmmd s ockd n cp n h o mu-soum Kndh nd, ccodng o popu mh, coud on b ouchd b uAmir-ul-Momineen(ld of h Fhfu). Fo ds of h n, s Johnson ndMson, 80, nd Nomsu Onsh, a t of h Muh nd Muhmmds amzngCok, New York Times, 19 Dcmb 2001, (28 Nomb 2007).

    18. ahmd rshd, Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil, and Fundamentalism in CentralAsia(N Hn, Ct: y Uns Pss, 2001), 42.

    19. Josph a. rn, th Mh of Chsmc lds, T + D(1 Mch 2003):46, (2 Dcmb 2007).

    20. Kzmn, 3-4.21. B roggo, Pksn tbn Uns Und Buh Mhsud, The Long

    War Journal, (15 Jnu 2008).

    22. Mch Hod cd n B.C. lndbg, Cuu: a Ngcd aspc n w,Urban Operations Journal, a w Cog, Mx-Gun afoc Bs, abm,1996, (18 Mch 2008).

    23. ibd., 12224. th m b, s usd n hs c, fs o oczd goups n hch

    knshp s h domnn dom of ognzon, nd hos mmbs consd hm-ss cuu dsnc (n ms of cusoms, dc o ngug, nd ogns) ndh bn poc unfd s fo much of h hso. anono Gusozz ndNoo Uh, tbs nd wods n Souhn afghnsn, 1980-2005, Crisis StatesWorking Papers2, no. 7 (Spmb 2006), 2, .

    25. Johnson, On the Edge of the Big Muddy, 122.26. a jg (Udu: ) s b ssmb of ds h mks dcsons b

    consnsus. th mos common n afghnsn nd mong h Pshun n Pk-sn. Fo ds of h jgdon, s a wdk, JirgaA Traditional Mechanism

    of Conict Resolution in Afghanistan, ; nd Mumz a Bngsh, Jg: Spd Juscof eds. wh s No Dcdd n h Jg w N b Dcdd b Boodshd,Khyber Gateway, .

    27. exp: afghn w Nds N Sg, United Press International, 21M 2007, (28 Nomb 2007).

    28. Nouf Qsm Mhd, Pkhun: Oscsm nd Hono mong h PhnH tbs, Ethology and Sociobiology7 (1986): 150-54.

    29. Jon Skosk-Dndo, tbsm nd afghn Poc tdons,53-59, (26 Fbu 2008).

    30. Os tohd nd Sco Bduf, Pksn am mus Go hough h Psh-uns, The Christian Science Monitor, 25 Jun 2004, (4 Spmb 2007).

    31. Ciah World Factbook2007, (21 Nomb 2007).

    32. Msdn, 78.33. thoms H. Johnson nd M. Chs Mson, Undsndng h tbn nd

    insugnc n afghnsn, Orbis51, no.1 (wn 2007): 75.

    34. rshd, Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil, and Fundamentalism in Central Asia,85-93.35. CIAthe World Factbook 2007. i s mpon o no h h s popuon

    cnsus n afghnsn occud n h 1970s. thus, hs fgus hghqusonb.

    36. Fo fuh ds bou Pshun b gnogs nd h gogph of bs, s S Of Kkpck Co, The Pathans, 550 B.C.-A.D. 1957(S. Mns:1958), 521, nd thoms H. Johnson, Pogm fo Cuu nd Confc Suds NPS, Pogm of Cuu nd Confc Suds, N Posgdu Schoo, (11 Jnu 2008).

    37. Fo fuh dscusson of h Pshun b dmnsons of h tbn, sJohnson nd Mson, 71.

    38. Co, 15.39. ibd., 22.40. ibd., 21.41. ibd., 12.42. ibd., 19.43. Fo h pupos of hs pp, humn n s dfnd s pop nd h

    suppo/ngnc noks.44. innon Css Goup, Pakistan: Karachis Madrasas and Violent Extrem-

    ism(2007).45. Johnson, On the Edge of the Big Muddy, 97.46. CIAthe World Factbook 2007.47. Hous Fogn affs Comm Hng on afghnsn, afghnsn:

    th rs of h Nco-tbn: tsmon of Congssmn Mk Kk, 2007, (29 Nomb 2007).

    48. Afghanistan Opium Survey 2007, Und Nons Offc on Dugs nd Cm(2007), (1 Ocob 2007).

    49. ibd.50. th o of afghnsn nd h Fata s sgh g hn h s

    of txs.51. th suoundng h Hmnd r poducs h hghs dng

    opum cop n h coun.52. CIAthe World Factbook 2007.53. Co, x.54. th tbn, Program for Culture and Conict Studies.55. rob tb, The War of the Flea: Guerrilla Warfare in Theory and Practice

    (N yok: l Su, inc., 1965), 27-28. th d of h tbn usng of h

    NOTES

  • 8/3/2019 Taliban Organizational Analysis MILREVIEW May-June 2008

    16/16

    T H E T A L I B A N

    f ccs ognd n Johnson nd Mson, 87.56. Johnson, On the Edge of the Big Muddy, 93.57. asbh ah abd Bk, th tbn Sg: rgous & ehnc Fcos,

    The World in Crisis (1Ocob 2007).

    58. thoms H. Johnson, n b uho, 24 M 2007.59. tbn, Janes World Insurgency and Terrorism, Jns infomon Goup,

    (1 Dcmb 2007).60. M DuP nd Hoon azzpou, Bood n h Sno: th tbns wn

    Offns, afgh.com, (27 Fbu 2008).61. M Dup, anss: tbn rpc Dduh, h S of h insugnc,

    (27 Fbu 2008).

    62. rhmuh yusufz, Om Nms Counc o rss Occupon. TheNews, 24 Jun 2003.

    63. vco Kogun, afghnsns rsugn tbn, Terrorism Focus 1,no. 4 (Ocob 24, 2003), (27 Fbu 2008).

    64. Fo dscusson of smngccs,sJohn aqu nd Dd ronfd,Swarming and the Future of Conict(Sn Monc, Ca: raND Non Dfnsrsch insu, 2005), (11 Dcmb 2007).

    65. in n n h h BBCs Pshu sc n Mch 2003, Muh Ddu-h sd of Muh Om: w h ppond ds nd commnds bsd onhs hndn ; h sd jhd bsd on hs hndn , nd ok bsd on hs ods. Counng afghnsns insugnc: No Quck Fxs ,innon Css Goup, ,(27 Fbu 2008).

    66. thoms H. Johnson, th tbn insugnc nd n anss of Shab Nameh(Ngh ls), Small Wars and Insurgencies, o. 18, 317-44.

    67. Johnson nd Mson, 71.68. Sh G. Jons, Afghanistans Local Insurgency(Sn Monc, Ca: th rnd

    Copoon, 2007), .

    69. Jhd lha Commn, Non Cn fo Poc rsch, (11 M 2007).

    70. tbn Sck M Commnd, BBC News, (2 Jnu 2008).

    71. tb, 27-28.72. rshd, 25.73. Jms Bs, tbn Sz Scond Dsc, Aljazeera.Net, 13 Fbu 2007,

    (20 Jnu 2008).

    74. S Dn, rss h tbn? wh Fo? l Nou Obsu , 10augus 2006, posd on uhou.com, .

    75. ibd.76. th Humn Cos: th Consquncs of insugn acks n afghnsn,

    Human Rights Watch 19, no. 6c (ap 2007), 70, (30 Ju 2007).

    77. aNSO Qu D rpo: (Q.2-07) 22 Dcmb 20066 Jun 2007,afghn NGO Scu Offc, 18 Ju 2007, 20, (21 Jnu 2008).

    78. aNSO, 6.

    79. aNSO, 8.80. lu Kng nd Dd Ho, afghnsn w Ns tppng Pon:

    Gonmn suppo s fggng, NatO s sp on sg, nd tbn fghs zd, Los Angeles Times, 9 Dcmb 2007, (20 Jnu 2008).

    81. tom Coghn, Bsh oops m fc -Qd fghs sn fom iq oafghnsn, Telegraph.co.uk, 3 Fbu 2006, (20 M 2007).

    82. th Humn Cos: th Consquncs of insugn acks n afghnsn, 74.83. ron Snoz, afghnsn: rsugn tbn Sos ad Pojcs, rcon-

    sucon, rdo F euop/rdo lb, 30 Nomb 2007, (20Jnu 2008).

    84. Chdn d n Kbu bomb ck, ajz.N, 24 Nomb 2007,

    .

    85. Noo Khn, tbn o opn h on schoos n h souh, afghnsnwch, 22 Jnu 2007, (20 M 2007).

    86. Sns afghnsn, Stumbling into Chaos: Afghanistan on the Brink(london:MF Pubshng ld, 2007), 96.

    87. Noo.88. Johnson, Bg Mudd, 94.89. S Dn nd Sm yousfz, tosm: th run of h tbn, l

    Nou Obsu, 3 Nomb 2005, posd on uhou.com,