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TI

Ti Sao Phi Dng M Hnh Ton Tnh Ton D Bo L ?

I. S cn thit ca m hnh ton trong d bo l

nh hng ca l i vi i sng con ngiL l hin tng nc sng dng cao trong mt khong thi gian nht nh, sau

gim dn. Trong ma ma l, nhng trn ma tng t lin tip trn lu vc sng,lm cho nc sng tng t ni tip nhau dng cao, to ra nhng trn l trong sng, sui.

Vo cc thng ma ma c cc trn ma ln, cng mnh, nc ma tch lu nhanh,nu t ti ch no nc th nc ma c vo dng chy, d gy ra l.

C th ni l lt l hin tng thu vn c bit nguy him, nht l l qut. Trongmt s trng hp n c sc tn ph khng khip v tr thnh thm ho t nhin gy ranhng thit hi to ln cho ngi v ca ci.

Ti sao phi l m hnh ton ?

Yu cu v d bo l tr thnh vn cp thit trong d bo thy vn, k thutd bo ngy cng pht trin nng cao c th kp thi cnh bo cho ngi dn sngtrong vng thng xuyn chu nh hng ca l. Nhm c th gim i nhng thit hi dol gy ra, vic xy dng cc m hnh ton l mt phng php hiu qu trong d bo l

v cnh bo nguy c ngp lt.Cc m hnh tnh ton c th c chnh sa ph hp vi cc tham s vt l,

c im a hnh dng chy, iu kin tnh ton thc t...iu c tc ng ln n chnh xc v tnh kp thi trong d bo thu vn ni chung cng nh d bo l ni ring.

Bn cnh , cc m hnh ton khng ngng hon thin k thut, lun c bsung, mm do hn vi s h tr ca cc phn mm thng tin, cng ngh vin thm vvv ng dng vo d bo trn din rng m cc phng php truyn thng khng png c.

II. Cc m hnh ton trong d bo l

1) Phn loi cc m hnh ton trong d bo thy vnC ba loi: M hnh ngu nhin:

- Dng chy l c xem nh mt qu trnh ngu nhin.- S liu xy dng m hnh l bn thn chui dng chy qu kh, di bcl c ht c tnh, bn cht ca n.- S dng trong d bo dng chy theo thng, ma, nm v nhiu nm cc luvc va v ln. t s dng trong d bo ngn hn.

1Trng i Khoa Hc T Nhin TPHCM

B Mn: Hi Dng HcLp: 05HD1A


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- Khng m t yu t hnh thnh dng chy.- Kt qu u ra mang tnh ngu nhin.- Khai thc h thng tin tt nh t chui s liu thc o, t quan tm n bn chtvt l ca hin t ng.

M hnh tt nh:

- Trong qu trnh hnh thnh dng chy cc thnh phn tt nh ng vai tr chyu. Cc thnh phn tt nh c th xc nh hoc nhn thc c thng qua nh gi,phn tch bn cht vt l ca hin tng.- M phng qu trnh hnh thnh dng chy l trn lu vc.- M hnh tt nh c nhiu dng khc nhau nh: m hnh hp en, m hnh nhnthc (hp xm), m hnh thy lc (hp trng)

M hnh tt nh-ngu nhin:- L s kt hp ca hai m hnh tt nh v ngu nhin, nhm khc phc mt s hnch ca hai m hnh ny.- Cu trc ca m hnh tt nh-ngu nhin c xt n:- Tnh chu k, tnh nhiu ca qu trnh thy vn trong m hnh ngu nhin.

- ng thi cng xt n bn cht vt l ca cc qu trnh thy vn trong m hnhtt nh.2) Mt s m hnh c th

M hnh MARINEM hnh tnh ton thy vn Marine do Vin C hc cht lng Toulouse-

IMFT(Cng ha Php ) xy dngDa trn phng trnh Saint-Vernant tnh ton d bo qu trnh hnh thnh, lan

truyn l trn lu vc.D bo tt cc cn l sinh ra do ma trn lu vc nh, nhng i hi phi c s

liu a hnh, th nhng, lp ph, mng li trm kh tng thy vn dy, c bit

phi d bo c ma vi phn gii cao.

M hnh SSARRTng hp dng chy v iu tit h cha.c im ca m hnh: Xy dng mt s hnh th cho h thng sng, bao gm:

Cc lu vc b phn sinh dng chy . iu kin thy vn tng i ng nht Cc on sng din ton l Cc h cha Cc on sng x l nc vt Cc im ni v tng hp dng chy

Kt qu tnh ton ph thuc vo vic xc nh cc thng s v cc quan h vt l,ch s, ch tiu c xc nh kh mm do.

Nhc im: s dng nhiu quan h di dng bng lm cho vic iu chnh mhnh gp nhiu kh khn v kh ti u ha.

M hnh SSARR c ci bin ng dng cho h thng sng Hng, sng TrKhc, sng V v cho kt qu kh tt trong tnh ton v d bo nghip v.

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M hnh TANKLu vc c m phng bng chui cc b cha xp theo tng v ct ph hp vi

hnh dng lu vc, cu trc th nhng, a cht,Ma trn lu vc c xem nhlng vo ca b cha trn cng. Mi b cha u c mt ca ra y.

M hnh n gin nht l kiu ct b TANK n: 4 b trn mt ct. Ph hp cho

cc lu vc nh c m cao.M hnh phc tp hn l m hnh TANK kp gm mt s ct b m phng qutrnh hnh thnh dng chy trn lu vc, v cc b m t qu trnh truyn sng l trongsng.

u im: ng dng tt cho lu vc va v nh. Kh nng m phng dng chythng, dng chy ngy, dng chy l.

Nhc im: c nhiu thng s nhng khng r ngha vt l nn kh xc nhtrc tip. Vic thit lp cu trc v thng s ha m hnh ch c th thc hin c saunhiu ln th sai, i hi ngi s dng phi c nhiu kinh nghim v am hiu m hnh.

M hnh TANK ng dng d bo ngn hn qu trnh l cho thng lu sng ThiBnh v mt s nhnh nh h thng sng Hng.

M hnh MIKE 11Xy dng ti Vin Thy lc an Mch (DHI).M hnh thu ng lc hc dng chy 1 chiu trong knh h, bi ven sng, vng

ngp l.u im ni tri so vi cc m hnh khc nh: Lin kt vi GIS. Kt ni vi cc m hnh thnh phn khc ca b MIKE v d nh m hnh

ma ro-dng chy NAM, m hnh thu ng lc hc 2 chiu MIKE 21, mhnh dng chy nc di t, dng chy trn b mt v dng bc thot hithm ph (MIKE SHE)

Kt qu th nghim d bo tc nghip bng m hnh MIKE 11 l rt kh quan.

M-un m hnh thy ng lc (HD) l mt phn trng tm ca h thng lp mhnh MIKE 11 v hnh thnh c s cho hu ht cc m-un bao gm: D bo l v vn hnh h cha. Cc phng php m phng kim sot l. Vn hnh h thng ti v tiu thot b mt. Thit k cc h thng knh dn. Nghin cu sng triu v dng chy do ma sng v ca sng.

M hnh MIKE 11 c p dng d bo l v vn hnh cc cng trnh phngchng l cho h thng sng Hng - Thi Bnh.

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Cc sng trong s tnh bao gm: sng , sng Thao, sng L, sng Hng,sng Cu, sng Thng, sng Lc Nam, sng ung, sng Thi Bnh, sng Kinh Thy,sng Kinh Mn, sng Lai Vu, sng Ga, sng Bch, sng Mi, sng Ma, sng Luc,sng Lch Tray, sng Ho, sng Tr L, sng o Nam nh v sng y.

M hnh DIMOSOP (Distributed hydrological model for the special observingperiod)

S dng d liu dng im ca cc trm o ma trong lu vc hoc s dng ktqu d bo di dng li (grid) l u ra ca cc m hnh d bo thi tit nh MM5

v BOLAM d bo l.Cu trc chnh ca m hnh da trn quan im chia lu vc tnh ton ra thnhmt h thng cc li. Kch thc ca mi li ph thuc vo mc chi tit ca sliu thu thp cng nh yu cu tnh ton. Mi mt li trn lu vc u c c trngbi mt yu t thy vn no , c th l mt phn t ca lu vc, c th l mt phn tca sng, hay l mt phn t ca h cha ...

u vo ca m hnh ny ngoi lng ma cn l bn a hnh di dngDEM, bn hin trng s dng t, loi t di dng li Grid (v y l m hnhthy vn phn b), v cc loi cng trnh cng nh quy trnh vn hnh ca cc cng trnh.u ra ca m hnh chnh l lu lng hay mc nc l ti bt k mt li no (imno) trn lu vc ch khng phi hn ch ch ti mt v tr nh cc m hnh thy vn

thng s gp a ra.u im: Kh nng s dng thng tin ton cu nh bn t, hin trng s dng

t, nh v tinh m phng lu vc c bit hu ch cho cc lu vc linquc gia, khi m thng tin v lu vc phn quc gia kia khng thu thpc hoc thu thp c nhng khng chnh xc v u vo ca m hnhnh nu trn ton dng li.

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C kh nng kt ni vi cc m hnh kh tng BOLAM v MM5 kodi thi gian d bo phc v vn hnh ti u h thng h cha.

Mt ln chy m hnh s cho kt qu d bo ca nhiu trm, nhiu v trkhc nhau vi thi gian d bo ln n 5 ngy.

Hin ti ang s dng d bo l trung hn cho h thng sng Hng v sng Thi

Bnh. y l m hnh c nh gi rt kh quan cn c nghin cu p dng cho cclu vc khc.

Nhn chung v cc m hnh.Hin nay, cc m hnh ton thy vn, thy lc mt chiu trong h phng trnh

y ca St. Venant (nh cc phn nm MIKE 11, ISIS, ONDA, FLUCOMP v HEC-RAS...s dng) vn l nhng m hnh thng dng nht dng d bo mc ngp ltdo l.

M hnh HYDROGIS do Vin Kh tng thy vn tin hnh p dng trong tnhton d bo l lt h thng sng Hng-Thi Bnh. y l mt tip cn khc pht huy tnhch ng sng to trong nghin cu d bo l.

Nhn chung i vi cc sng min Trung, m hnh ton thy vn nh TANK,NAM, HEC-HMS, m hnh thy lc thng c p dng.M hnh MIKE-11 vi nhng m un ring bit nh d bo thy vn, vn hnh

h cha, iu khin cng trnh, c bit c m un d bo vi chc nng t ng cpnht sai s nn y l m hnh c s dng d bo tc nghip.M hnh HMS v HEC-RAS cho kt qu tt trong tnh ton ma - dng chy, thy lc,vn hnh h cha v cc cng trnh phn chm l. Tuy nhin, m hnh khng c m uncp nht sai s - mt m un cc k quan trng ca mt m hnh d bo, v th rt kh sdng trong cng tc d bo tc nghip.

M hnh HMS, HEC-RAS v MIKE-11, VRSAP thng dng cho d bo l hthng sng Hng - Thi Bnh.

NHM THC HIN:

0521001 Ma Th Trng An0521003 Nguyn Thu Trang Anh0521005 V Thi Xun Chi052032 La Thanh Nht Linh0521037 Nguyn Thi Kim Ngn0521050 Ng Nam Thnh0521051 Hong Th Thanh Thu

TI LIU THAM KHO:

http://tvmt.wru.edu.vn/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=365&Itemid=70http://www.clst.ac.vn/AP/tapchitrongnuoc/hdkh/2001/so06/10.htmlhttp://www.imh.ac.vn/b_tintuc_sukien/ba_hoatdong/mlnews.2005-07-08.8089688717http://www.imh.ac.vn/c_tt_chuyen_nganh/ce_detai_duan/researchtopic.2004-09-13.1208124850/researchtopic_view

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http://www.clst.ac.vn/AP/tapchitrongnuoc/hdkh/2001/so06/10.htmlhttp://www.imh.ac.vn/b_tintuc_sukien/ba_hoatdong/mlnews.2005-07-08.8089688717http://www.imh.ac.vn/c_tt_chuyen_nganh/ce_detai_duan/researchtopic.2004-09-13.1208124850/researchtopic_viewhttp://www.imh.ac.vn/c_tt_chuyen_nganh/ce_detai_duan/researchtopic.2004-09-13.1208124850/researchtopic_viewhttp://www.clst.ac.vn/AP/tapchitrongnuoc/hdkh/2001/so06/10.htmlhttp://www.imh.ac.vn/b_tintuc_sukien/ba_hoatdong/mlnews.2005-07-08.8089688717http://www.imh.ac.vn/c_tt_chuyen_nganh/ce_detai_duan/researchtopic.2004-09-13.1208124850/researchtopic_viewhttp://www.imh.ac.vn/c_tt_chuyen_nganh/ce_detai_duan/researchtopic.2004-09-13.1208124850/researchtopic_view


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http://www.sihymete.org.vn/ctbaocao.php?idbc=32http://www.imh.ac.vn/c_tt_chuyen_nganh/cc_thongbao_thuyvan/mlnews.2005-08-13.0494687631http://tvmt.wru.edu.vn/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=388http://web.thanhnien.com.vn/News/PrintView.aspx?ID=214315

http://www.gisdevelopment.net/aars/acrs/1999/ts14/ts14106b.shtmlTi liu bi dng nghip v d bo vin kh tng thy vn.

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http://www.sihymete.org.vn/ctbaocao.php?idbc=32http://www.imh.ac.vn/c_tt_chuyen_nganh/cc_thongbao_thuyvan/mlnews.2005-08-13.0494687631http://www.imh.ac.vn/c_tt_chuyen_nganh/cc_thongbao_thuyvan/mlnews.2005-08-13.0494687631http://tvmt.wru.edu.vn/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=388http://web.thanhnien.com.vn/News/PrintView.aspx?ID=214315http://www.gisdevelopment.net/aars/acrs/1999/ts14/ts14106b.shtmlhttp://www.sihymete.org.vn/ctbaocao.php?idbc=32http://www.imh.ac.vn/c_tt_chuyen_nganh/cc_thongbao_thuyvan/mlnews.2005-08-13.0494687631http://www.imh.ac.vn/c_tt_chuyen_nganh/cc_thongbao_thuyvan/mlnews.2005-08-13.0494687631http://tvmt.wru.edu.vn/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=388http://web.thanhnien.com.vn/News/PrintView.aspx?ID=214315http://www.gisdevelopment.net/aars/acrs/1999/ts14/ts14106b.shtml

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