TI LIU KIN THC CN BN CN BIT V U T VNG TI KHON. I.MT S LI KHUYN TRC KHI THAM GIA Th trng VNG 1.V ti chnh: Bn cn s vn ti thiu 22 triu ng . V s vn ny nn l vn nhn ri,

dng gia tng li nhun, khng phi l vn vay mn hoc s vn nh hng n cm o, go tin hng ngy. Tuyt i khng u t nu bn ch c mt khong tin nho nh m bn tch

gp by lu ( 50 bo hiu v s thng

th ca phe mua, RSI < 50 bo hiu s thng th ca phe bn Chi tit v cc thng s ca RSI v cch thc s dng RSI ging nh mi my hin th dao ng khc c nu trong Phn tch k thut (1): Tng quan 2.4.4 Parapolic SAR Parabolic SAR n thi im ny, chng ta bit c mt s ng ch dn c th cho thy cc im bt u ca mt xu hng mi. Vic xc nh c mt xu hng mi l rt quan trng, tuy nhin, vic xc nh im kt thc xu hng cng quan trng khng km. Bn khng th c 1 giao dch [1] tt nu chn im vo tt nhng chn im thanh khon ti.

Mt cng c ch dn c th gip bn d bo [2] xu hng hin ti kt thc l cng c Parabolic SAR. Ch SAR c vit t Stop And Reversal c ngha l dng v quay ngc. Parabolic SAR v ra nhng im chm trn biu , ch ra rng hng i ca t gi c th sp i chiu. Trong biu trn, bn thy cc im chm

Parabolic SAR nm pha di cc nn khi th trng ang ln, v nm pha trn cc nn khi th trng i chiu i xung. S dng Parabolic SAR Mt im kh hay Parabolic SAR l n c s dng rt n gin. Khi nhng im chm xut hin di nn, l du hiu BUY, khi nhng im chm xut hin trn cc nn, l du hiu SELL. C th ni y l cng c ch dn d lm quen v s dng nht, tuy nhin, nn lu s dng tt nht khi th trng c xu hng, khng nn s dng i vi th trng bp bnh 1 chiu (sideways). 2.4.5 Ch s ADX- Average Directional Index. Ch s ADX Average Directional Index Trong bi hc ny, chng ta s hc v ch s ch dn dch chuyn trc tip trung bnh Average Directional Index (ADX), y l cng c gip xc nh xu hng, xu hng mnh hay yu, xu hng ang bt u hay sp o chiu.

[1] Chng ta s khng i su vo cng thc tnh ton ADX, tuy nhin bn cng nn bit c im chnh ca cc ng to nn ADX nh sau :

ng +DI cho bit th trng ang mnh hay yu trong xu hng i ln ng -DI cho bit th trng ang mnh hay yu trong xu hng i xung. ng ADX khng ch ra xu hng th trng ang ln hay xung m cho bit th trng ang mnh hay yu

V ng ADX khng c tc dng nh hng, n s khng cho bn bit liu th trng ang trong xu hng xung hay ln (bn cn xem ng +DI v -DI bit xu hng), nhng ng DX s cho bn bit xu hng ang mnh hay yu th no. Khi ng ADX t 40 tr ln, xu hng ang din ra mnh, khi ng ADX t 20 tr xung, th trng ang khng c xu hng r rng.

[1] Mt trong nhng cch u tin m cc nh giao dch [2] thng s dng ADX l xc nhn xem th trng ang c xu hng r rng hay khng, trnh vo th trng khi xu hng khng r rng. Cc nh giao dch [2] c khuyn khng nn vo th trng khi ng ADX di 20 cng nh khi ng ADX nm di c 2 ng +DI v -DI.

[3] Mt cch khc m cc nh giao dch [2] thng s dng cng c ny l tm ra im bt u ca mt xu hng mi trn th trng. Rt n gin, h nhn xem ng ADX c ct t di ln trn mc 20 hay khng. Nu hin tng ny xy ra sau mt giai on di th trng khng r xu hng, th mc tin cy ca tn hiu ny cng cao.

[4] Mt cch khc na, ADX c s dng tm ra du hiu o chiu xu hng. Khi ng ADX ang nm trn c 2 ng +DI v -DI , sau quay u xung thp, l du hiu cnh bo rng xu hng hin ti c th s o chiu.

[5] V d cui cng m chng ti mun gii thiu n bn v cch s dng ADX l bn c th BUY khi ng +DI ct vt ln trn ng -DI ( du hiu ch ra l nhm ngi mua chin thng nhm ngi bn) v SELL khi ng +DI ct xung di ng -DI ( du hiu ch ra nhm ngi bn chin thng nhm ngi mua). Tuy nhin bn cng nn kt hp du hiu ny vi mt s cng c ch dn khc trnh mc phi nhng du hiu khng chnh xc.

3.L thuyt v Pivot point.

Gii thiu v Pivot Point Cc nh giao dch [1] chuyn nghip thng s dng pivot points tm ra nhng mc h tr (support) v khng c ( resistance) quan trng. Bn c th hiu mt cch n gin nh sau: pivot point v cc mc support/resistance ca n l cc khu vc m ti , hng di chuyn ca gi c th s thay i. Pivot points c s dng rt hiu qu cho cc nh giao dch [1] ngn hn, nhng ngi lun tm kim cc c hi trn tng bc bin ng nh ca th trng. Pivot points c s dng cho c 2 cch chi : bt tr li sau khi chm cc ngng cn (rang-bound) v ph v mc cn (breakout). Cc nh giao dch [1] theo trng phi rang-bound s dng pivot points tm ra cc im o chiu. Cc nh giao dch [1] theo trng phi breakout s dng pivot points nhn din nhng mc then cht m mt khi mc ny b ph v, s c mt s bng n xy ra trn th trng. Di y l v d v pivot points c v trn biu Eur/Usd , khung thi gian 1 gi

[2] Cch tnh Pivot Point Pivot Point v cc mc support, resistance i cng vi n c tnh bng cch s dng gi m ca, gi cao nht, gi thp nht, gi ng ca ca phin giao dch [1] trc . Th trng Forex l th trng 24h, v hu ht cc nh giao dch [1] s dng gi ng ca l 4h chiu ngy hm trc theo gi New York ( 4:00pm EST). Cng thc tnh Pivot Point nh sau : Pivot point (PP) = (High + Low + Close) / 3 Cc mc Support v Resistance c tnh theo Pivot Point nh sau : Mc Support v Resistance th nht : First support (S1) = (2*PP) High First resistance (R1) = (2*PP) Low

Mc Support v Resistance th hai : Second support (S2) = PP (High Low) Second resistance (R2) = PP + (High Low)

[5] Cch s dng Pivot Point Phng php Breakout Pivot Point c s dng trc tin tm im vo th trng, nh vo cc mc Support v Resistance ca n. Nhng bin ng gi mnh nht thng xy ra ti khu vc pivot point. Ch khi gi chm mc pivot point, bn s c th quyt nh nn BUY hay SELL, t take profit v stop loss ti u. Thng thng, nu gi pha trn pivot, l khu vc gi ln, nu nm di pivot, l khu vc gi xung.

Nu gi quanh qun khu vc pivot point v ng ca di pivot, bn c th vo lnh SELL. Bn nn t Stop loss trn Pivot Point ( PP) v take profit ti S1. Tuy nhin, nu bn thy gi tip tc ri qua khi S1, m nu nh lc bn cha thot khi th trng, bn c th di Stop loss t trn PP xung trn S1 v theo di cn thn. Thng th S2 l mc mong mun thp nht trong ngy v bn nn dng n t mc tiu li nhun cho mnh. Bn c th p dng ngc li cch giao dch [1] trn khi th trng trong xu hng ln. Nu nn c gi ng ca pha trn PP, bn c th vo lnh BUY, t Stop loss di PP v t take profit ti cc mc R1 v R2. Phng php Range-bound Sc mnh ca cc mc Support v Resistance th hin qua s ln gi chm v bt ngc li m khng vt qua c cc mc cn ny. Gi chm vo mc cn v bt li cng nhiu ln th mc cn cng mnh. Nu gi gn mc cn resistancce , bn c th SELL v t Stop loss nh pha trn mc resistance ny. Nu gi tip tc tng cao v ph v mc Resistance, coi nh hin tng breakout xy ra. Lc bn cn thot khi lnh SELL, v nu nh bn tin rng hin tng breakout xy ra v mnh BUY, bn c th vo th trng tr li vi mt lnh BUY. Khi , bn c th t Stop loss st pha di mc resistance lc ny ( sau khi c ph qua, by gi n tr thnh mt mc Support mi). Ngc li, nu gi gn khu vc Support pha di, bn c th BUY v t Stop loss di mc Support ny. L thuyt trn c hon ho ?

Theo l thuyt, mi th nghe tht n gin. Nhng, ch l trong m !!! Trong th gii thc, Pivot Point khng phi lc no cng ng, Gi thng do d xung quanh khu vc cc mc cn v tht kh khn ni rng : n s tip tc di chuyn th no. Trong vi trng hp, gi s dng trc khi chm vo mc cn v i chiu, iu c ngha l giao dch [1] ca bn cha th dnh take profit. Mt s trng hp khc, bn thy ng Support c v rt mnh, bn BUY trn n, nhng ri gi rt xung qua khi Support, bn ng lnh, chu l, v ri sau , gi quay tr ln li nh hng bn on ban u. V th bn cn phi giao dch [1] mt cch c chn lc, bn nn tm hiu mt chin lc giao dch [1] theo Pivot Point ca ring bn v nh phi tun th nguyn tc chi tht nghim ngt. By gi bn xem hnh v bn di cng hnh dung s dng Pivot Point kh hay d th no .

[2]

Tht nhiu mu sc sinh ng phi khng no ? Nhn vo khu vc hnh oval mu cam. Ch xem ng PP hot ng nh mt Support nh th no, tuy nhin nu bn BUY , bn khng th ly li nhun ti R1 By gi bn hy hnh trn mu tm u tin. Gi ph v qua ng PP nhng khng chm c n S1 m quay ngc li PP. Trong ln th 2 ph v PP (hnh trn mu tm th 2) gi mi chm c vo S1 v sau quay tr li PP. khu vc hnh oval mu hng, PP tip tc hot ng nh mt mc Support mnh, tuy nhin gi khng th n c R1 hnh trn mu vng, gi ph v PP, chm S1, v sau tip tc ri xung S2. Nh vy, vi biu nh trn, nu bn c gng vo lnh BUY no , bn phi thot lnh v chu l. Theo kin c nhn, chng ti s khng ngh mnh s vo lnh BUY trong nhng trng hp trn. V sao ? Mt b mt nho nh, l v chng ti khng cho cc bn thy trn biu ny, gi ang trong xu hng xung. Bn hy lun nh xu hng l bn . Khng nn m sau lng bn mnh, v th, hy c gng ht sc ng bao gi chi ngc xu hng. Trong bi hc sau, bn s hc cch s dng nhiu khung thi gian cng lc nhn din chnh xc xu hng, iu ny s gip bn gim thiu sai lm nh trong v d trn. Tm tt b quyt giao dch [1] vi Pivot Points Di y l mt s gi d nh s gip bn c c nhng quyt nh giao dch tt.vi Pivot Points :

Nu gi ang PP, ch gi s di chuyn n R1 hoc S1 Nu gi ti R1, n c th di chuyn n R2 hoc quay ngc li PP Nu gi ti S1, n c th di chuyn n S2 hoc quay li PP Nu gi ti R2, n c th di chuyn n R3 hoc quay tr li R1 Nu gi ti S2, n c th di chuyn n S3 hoc quay li S1 Nu khng c nhng tin tc [3] quan trng nh hng n th trng, gi thng di chuyn t PP n S1 hoc R1 Nu c tin tc [3] quan trng ng hng th trng, gi c th i qua R1 hay S1 v n thng R2. S2 hoc R3, S3. R3 v S3 ch ra nhng mc ti a m gi c th di chuyn n ( tr rt t trng hp ngoi l gi di chuyn mnh hn). ng Pivot hot ng tt trong khi th trng t bin ng v bin dao ng trong khu vc gia R1 v S1. Khi th trng trong xu hng mnh, gi vt mnh qua cc mc cn v i thng.

3.Cc m hnh k thut thng dng 3.1 M hnh 2 y 2 nh Cc m hnh kinh in: M hnh hai y, m hnh hai nh

Double bottom (M hnh hai y) M hnh hai y hnh thnh khi gi to thnh hai im y lin tip trn cng mt th. M hnh ny ch hon thin khi gi tng vt qua im bt u hnh thnh y th hai (tc l vt qua ng Neckline sau khi chm n y th hai). M hnh hai y l thi k chuyn i xu th gim gi thnh xu th tng gi, n mang tnh o chiu. C iu l m hnh ny tng i d nhn ra nn cng rt d nhm do nh u t nn cn thn khi quyt nh tham gia trong thi k ny. Thc t thng k

cho thy nu nh u t nng vi tham gia ngay t u th xc xut tht bi l 64% cn nu h c gng i n khi xut hin "breakout" (o chiu) tht s th xc xut tht bi ch cn 3%.

c th nhn din chnh xc m hnh, nh u t nn ch n mt s vn : y th hai khng nn xung vt qu y th nht; khong thi gian gia hai y cng l mt du hiu quan trng-thi gian cng di th chnh xc cng cao-t nht phi l mt thng v c th ko di nhiu thng.

Double top (M hnh hai nh)

M hnh hai nh hnh thnh khi ng biu din s bin ng ca gi vng hnh thnh hai nh trn biu . M hnh ny ch hon thin khi gi chng vng ri xung di mc y (im di cng ca y) ca ton m hnh. M hnh hai dnh l m hnh th hin s o ngc ca xu hng tng gi vng n nh du qu trnh chun b cho xu hng i xung ca xu hng tng gi trong hin ti (n bo hiu cho mt th trng gim gi). V y l m hnh rt hay thng gp v rt d nhn ra nn khi nhn nh v th trng chng ta nn xem xt mt cch cn then. Bolkowski c tnh mc tht bi ca m hnh ny l 65% nu nh u t i n mc t bin gi (Breakout) mi tin hnh giao dch th mc ri ro gim xung cn 17%.

Falling wedge (M hnh ci nm hng xung): M hnh Falling wedge l mt hnh mu k thut dng bullish (ch bo th trng tng gi), m hnh bt u th bin khong cch gia hai ng xu th rng sau rng gim dn khi gi chng khon gim. S bin ng ca gi hnh thnh mt hnh chp nn hng xung di do cc nh v y dn hi t. Hnh mu k thut Falling wedge trt hng xung pha di v c du hiu bullish (ch bo th trng tng gi), tuy nhin du hiu bullish (ch bo th trng tng gi) ny s

khng th c nhn ra cho n khi c "breakout" (o chiu xu th ) khi ng khng c. Khi m hnh mang tnh continuation (tip tc xu th ca th trng), th Falling wedge vn s hng xung di v xu hng ny ngc vi xu th ca th trng hin ti. Khi n mang tnh reversal (o ngc vi xu th ca th trng), th Falling wedge hng trt xung di cng vi xu th ca th trng. Nhng cho d Falling wedge thuc loi no th n vn l hnh mu k thut bo hiu s tng gi!

Head and shoulders top (hnh mu k thut nh u vai) nh u vai l mt hnh mu k thut ht sc ph bin i vi nhng nh u t v n l mt hnh mu k thut ng tin cy nht trong tt c nhng hnh mu k thut c trnh by trong ti nghin cu ny, ng thi n cng thng c nhn ra mt cch d dng. Nhng nh phn tch k thut t kinh nghim thng mc li i vi hnh mu k thut ny v h nhn thy n xut hin kh ph bin trn biu . Nhng nh phn tch k thut chuyn nghip thng nhn bit hnh mu k thut ny thng qua nhng bin c thc s. nh u vai l loi hnh mu k thut o ngc xu th ca th trng. N l du hiu quan trng nh du s o chiu ca xu th bin ng gi vng t xu th tng gi chuyn thnh xu th gim gi.

Hnh mu k thut nh u vai thc ra l s m phng theo hnh dng u v hai vai ca con ngi, hnh mu gm ba nh cao nhn c to bi ba im khi phc tng gi tr li sau khi gi gim trong s bin ng ca gi chng khon. nh u tin vai tri xun hin khi gi chng khon tng t ti nh ca n v sau gim xung. nh th hai ci u- xy ra khi gi vng tng ln n mt nh cao mi cao hn nh ca vai tri ri sau li gim xung. nh th ba vai phi xut hin khi gi vng tng mt ln na nhng khng cao bng nh th hai, ri li gim xung sau khi t c nh ca n. nh ca hai vai chc chn s thp hn nh ca u. Trong m hnh phn tch c in th hai nh ca hai vai phi cn bng vi nhau nhng iu quan trng nht quyt nh ca m hnh ny chnh l ng ni hai y ca hai vai gi l ng vng c neckline m hnh s b ph v khi ng vng c b xuyn cho bi gi vng v gi vng tip tc gim xung di ng vng c neckline cc chuyn vin Phn tch k thut cho rng m hnh khng c khng nh l ng cho ti khi gi vng gim xung di ng vng c neckline.

Rounding bottom (hnh mu k thut y vng cung) Rounding bottom l mt hnh mu k thut o ngc xu hng bin ng th trng reversal di hn, n thng c dng phn tch vi biu hng tun. N i din cho mt thi k cng c di hn trong xu th bin ng ca gi

vng, n l m hnh chuyn tip t mt khuynh hng gim gi lin tc Bearish sang mt khuynh hng tng gi mnh bullish. S xc nhn ca khuynh hng tng gi mi bullish khi khuynh hng bin ng gi vng vt qua ng ming ca vng cung, n nh du mt khuynh hng mi trong qu trnh bin ng ca gi vng, nh mt mc h tr ca s t bin gi vng, ng ny cng c coi l mc khng c ca xu th mi. Tuy nhin, Rounding bottom i din cho s o chiu ca s bin ng gi chng khon trong di hn v mc h tr mi cng tr thnh khng my quan trng na.

Triple bottom (hnh mu k thut ba y) M hnh ba y c hnh thnh bi ba y ph ring bit vi mc xp x bng nhau. M hnh ba y c xem nh l m hnh ci tin ca m hnh nh u vai ngc, m hnh ba y l hnh mu dng o ngc xu th bin ng ca th trng. Th duy nht phn bit gia m hnh ba y v m hnh nh u vai ngc chnh l nh - u nm gia hai vai. M hnh ba y biu din xu th gim xt trong qu trnh n tr thnh mt xu th tng gi. nh vy n ch cn hp l khi n vn trong qu trnh gim xt so vi hai nh gia hay l n cha i xuyn cho qua ng vng c neckline vt qua mc khng c ca m hnh. Bi v hnh mu k thut ny rt d nhm ln vi nhiu hnh mu k thut khc cho nn cach chuyn vin phn tch khuyn rng ng dng m hnh ny mt cch c hiu qu

cao nht trong qu trnh u t, chng ta nn ch i mt du hiu "breakout" mt cch r rng thng qua s xuyn cho ca ng biu din gi chng khon vi ng khng c ca m hnh neckline trc khi nhn nh y c phi thc s l hnh mu k thut dng ba y hay khng

Triple top (hnh mu k thut ba nh) M hnh ba nh c xem l m hnh ci tin ca m hnh nh u vai. Tng t nh m hnh ba y th duy nht phn bit mt cch r rng gia m hnh ny vi m hnh nh u vai chnh l nh u nm gia hai vai, trong m hnh ba nh th ba nh xp x cao bng nhau, nhng trong m hnh nh u vai th hon ton khc, nh u cao hn hn so vi hai vai hai bn. Nh hnh minh ho bn di th m hnh ba nh c hnh thnh t ba nh sc nhn, c ba nh c cao gn bng nhau. Mt nh trong b ba xut hi khi gi vng ang trong giai on tng gi, s tng gi ln ti mc khng c ca m hnh sau gi vng gim xung mc h tr ca m hnh, sau xut hin s tng gi tr li nhng ch t n mc khng c ngang bng vi mc khng c ca m hnh v li gim xung, s tng gi tr li mc khng c th ba trc khi gi chng khon b gim mt cch nhanh chng xung di mc h tr ca m hnh. Hnh mu k thut ba nh l mt hnh mu dng o chiu ca th trng n nh du mt thi k chuyn tip gia mt xu th tng gi v mt xu th gim gi. iu kin u tin ca m hnh l phi c

bt u bng mt xu th tng gi. Cc chuyn vin phn tch khuyn rng nh u t nn i s xut hin ca s xuyn cho gia ng biu din gi vng vi ng h tr ca m hnh neckline mt cch r rng. nu gi vng khng gim mnh sau s xut hin nh th ba th khng phi l m hnh ba nh. i khi trong thc t m hnh ba nh khng thc s xy ra mt cch hon ho v d nh t khi ba nh c cao xp x bng nhau, m s bng nhau ch mang tnh cht c s sai lch c th chp nhn c. 3.2 M hnh chic cc tay cm Chic cc c tay cm Cc hnh mu thuc phng php thng k. Cc hnh mu c c kt v pht hin da vo cc quan st, cc kinh nghim, cc php thng k. Cng nh cc phng php thuc nhm thng k khc, mi hnh mu cn phi c gii thch (hay hp l ha) bng cc hnh vi tm l ca cc nh u t trn th trng. Bi vit ny s gii thiu mt hnh mu: chic cc c tay cm. 1. Nhn din Chic cc c tay cm c 2 phn: y v tay cm. Phn y bn tri c hnh thnh khi th trng i n cui thi k suy thoi, phn y bn phi c hnh thnh khi th trng bt u tng trng. Phn tay cm c hnh thnh bi giai on iu chnh u tin ca chu k tng trng. Phn y cc cng trn cng tt, nhng c im quan trng nht l phn tay cm. Phn i xung v y ca tay cm c s lng giao dch thp v phn i ln ca tay cm c khi lng giao dch v sc tng gi cng mnh cng tt. Khi phn i ln ca tay cm vt qua ming cc, l lc mua vo. 2. Nguyn nhn v ngha Nu i chiu vi sng Elliot th chic cc c tay cm tng ng vi sng 1 sng 2 v sng 3. Phn y ca chic cc c hnh thnh khi th trng ang giai on

chuyn mnh gia suy thoi, dp dnh v tng trng, lc ny th trng vn cn trn ngp s hoang mang ca cc nh u t, s tng trng l cha chc chn, mua vo lc ny l s mo him. Khi gi tng n mt ngng no , do cn thiu lng tin vo th trng, nhiu nh u t thy c gi d khng nhiu so vi gi mua vo lc y hoc so vi gi mua vo khi cn cao s tm cch bn ra kim li ngn hn hoc ct l. Hnh ng ny to nn phn bn tri v phn y tay cm ca chic cc, tng ng vi sng 2 Elliot, giai on iu chnh u tin ca s tng trng. Khi gi c tip tc tng, k vng v th trng c nng ln gip y gi c phiu tng mnh m vi khi lng giao dch ln. Khi phn i ln ca tay cm vt qua ming cc vi khi lng giao dch ln v sc tng gi mnh, tn hiu ny cng c vng chc v s tng trng ca th trng. y l thi im tt mua vo v s mo him c gim bt v gi c cng thp va phi, ha hn s cho li nhun ln. Sau khi hon chnh phn tay cm, khi gi ln n nh s hon chnh sng 3 Elliot. 3. S dng Xt v d v Cng ty c phn Pin cquy Min Nam

Ti thi im s 1, lc ny hnh thnh nn dng cc c tay cm. Phn y

ca tay cm c s lng giao dch rt nh, trng thi dng co. Phn cui ca tay cm xuyn ph qua ngng ming cc ti thi iu s 1 vi khi lng giao dch tng vt, thi im s 1 chnh l thi im mua vo.

Ti thi im s 2, hnh mu chic cc tay cm c hnh thnh vi phn y

rng hn chic cc thi im 1 v phn tay cm rt hp, phn y ca tay cm c s lng giao dch ln v phn ming cc b xuyn ph ti thi im s 2 vi khi lng giao dch ln cng c vng chc cho s tng trng PAC.

Tuy nhin ch rng chic cc c tay cm p dng ng nht cho giai on

u ca chu k tng trng tng ng vi thi im s 1. Ti thi im s, m hnh chic cc khng cn c hon hon na, phn y b bin dng nhiu do tri trn mt thi k rng, chnh xc ca hnh mu ti thi im s 2 khng cao nh thi im 1. Tuy nhin hnh mu ti thi im s 2 d sao cng c tnh cht cng c vng chc cho chu k tng trng.

Ngun th http://www.vietstock.com.vn

Thi im s 1 to thnh hnh chic cc c tay cm. Phn y tay cm c

khi lng nh, phn cui ca tay cm ti thi im s 1 xuyn ph ngng gi ca ming cc vi khi lng tng vt ha hn mt chu k tng trng cho DIC. Thi im s 1 chnh l im mua vo.

Ngun th http://www.vietstock.com.vn

Sau khi phn y cc c hnh thnh, ti thi im s 1 tuy gi vt quan

ming cc nhng khi lng giao dch khng mnh vt tri, lc ny s tng trng l cha ng tin cy, vn trong giai on iu chnh ging co. Phi n thi im s 3, gi NSC xuyn ph im cao hn ming cc vi s lng vt tri khng nh mt giai on tng trng vng chc; im s 3 chnh l im mua vo. n y s c nhiu ngi t tic v khng mua c gi ti y ti a ha li nhun m phi mua gi cao hn ti cc thi im mua vo trong cc v d trn. Tuy nhin vo thi im m gi chm y, chng ai c th khng nh c l y v kh nng ri ro rt cao. Nu bn p dng m hnh chic cc c tay cm bn chp nhn khng mua c y, tc l chp nhn khng t ti a li nhun nhng gim thiu ri ro v xu th tng trng l chc chn. Hy nh: thun theo th trng th sng; chng li th trng th cht; tham th thm.3.3 Cc m hnh tip din

Cc m hnh tip din

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Cc m hnh tip din xy ra cho bit xu hng th trng c khuynh hng tip tc duy tr. Khi no bin ng gi cn tun theo 1 xu hng xc nh v khng ph v ng xu hng , th xu hng vn cn sc mnh v l 1 xu hng tip din. Ngoi ra cn c 1 s m hnh bin ng gi cng cho thy xu hng vn cn tip tc. M hnh c tng ( bullish flag) - M hnh c tng xut hin khi th trng ang c 1 xu hng tng mnh, v c th b gin on bi 1 s tm ngh hoc bin ng t ( sideways) do vic giao dch [2] gim trong 1 vi nn ( candles), v sau th trng tip tc 1 xu hng mnh tip din. Khong gin on chng li xu hng chnh c th din ra trong vi ngy. Th trng c c th l lun dao ng gia 1 chu k cc im dao ng cao v chu k cc im dao ng thp, v l l do ti sao m hnh c l 1 dng th trng chm li 1 nhp xc nh li mc trc khi quay tr li xu hng tng.

[3] M hnh c gim (Bearish flag) - M hnh c gim xut hin khi th trng ang c 1 xu hng gim mnh, v c th b gin on bi 1 s tm ngh hoc bin ng t ( sideways) do vic giao dch [2] gim trong 1 vi nn ( candles), v sau th trng tip tc 1 xu hng gim mnh tip din. Cng nh m hnh c tng, vng

c l thi gian ngn th trng cng c v xc nh trc khi tr li vi 1 xu hng gim mnh.

[4] Tam gic i xng hay c hiu (pennants)- 1 trong nhng m hnh tam gic ph bin tam gic nhn l m hnh tip din. Gi c khuynh hng dao ng ngy cng yu , vi im cao v im thp ngy cng c bin nh dn v gi hng n nh nhn ca tam gic. S ph v ca gi ra khi m hnh tam gic theo 1 hng th xu hng s ni tri hn v trong v d pha trn , gi xung mnh. Tam gic gim (descending triangle) 1 trong nhng m hnh tam gic hiu qu bo trc s tip din ca xu hng gim . Th trng ang nng lng tm kim 1 xu hng mua khi chm mc cn (support) rt nhiu ln trong vi candle lin tip. nhng nh ca cc nn trong dy ngy cng thp hn v gi hng n im mi nhn trong tam gic. V cng nh cc m hnh tam gic khc, khi ngi mua quyt nh rng h khng th gi gi lu hn na ti mc chn y ca tam gic ny, gi s ph v mc cn, v k vng gi s tip tc xung theo xu hng tri hn. Tam gic tng (Ascending triangle ) Tam gic tng ngc li vi tam gic gim. Ngi bn gi gi ti mc chn trn (resistance) ca tam gic nhng ngi mua tip tc y gi ln cao hn, to nn mc gi thp ca nn sau cao hn nn trc cho n

khi mc chn trn b ph v. Cng ging nh cc tam gic khc, gi s tip din theo xu hng tri hn sau khi ph v mc cn.3.4 Cc m hnh o chiu

Cc m hnh o chiu Nh ci tn ca n, y l nhng m hnh i chiu cho thy du hiu xu hng kt thc v th trng sn sng i sang 1 xu hng khc ngc vi hng ban u, hoc c th, dao ng ngn ( sideways) trong 1 thi gian. Cng vi m hnh tip din, ng xu hng (trendline) l m hnh c bn xem xt. Nu gi ph v ng xu hng, v tip tc bt ph, y l s xc nhn ca 1 s i chiu xu hng. Lun nh rng, tt c cc m hnh u c th p dng cho mi khung thi gian (time frames) theo gi, ngy, tun, thng, nm hoc c th theo biu pht. M hnh 2 nh (double tops): Hin tng ny xut hin khi gi t n mt im cao r rt, vt hn im trc y, sau quay li im v li vt ln. Khi thi gian 2 nh lin tip ca s tng gi ny cch nhau cng lu th cng th hin kh nng tng gi ca th ny. S bin i ca m hnh ny tng t nh hin tng m ngi ta gi l m hnh cc nh M hay 1-2-3 t sng tng gi. Tuy nhin, s tng gi th 2 thng thp hn s tng gi u tin i vi m hnh ny. Trong hu ht cc trng hp, nhng im quyt nh thng l nhng im tng gi, l nhng im nh du kh nng xut hin mt mc gi trn mong i, v mt mc gi thp tm thi. Nu gi gim xung thp hn mc , l s xc nhn nh m hnh v du hiu khuyn bn nn bn.

M hnh 2 y (double bottom) : nguyn tc ca m hnh ny ging nh s ngc li ca m hnh 2 nh. Tng t m hnh ny c gi l m hnh cc y W hoc 1-2-3 t sng gim gi. Trong tt c cc trng hp ca m hnh ny, gi t n mt mc thp r rt, c s bt ln 1 cht, sau rt xung mc thp th li 1 ln na, v cui cng tng tr li. Khi gi vt khi mc cao tm thi, khi y m hnh c xc nhn v th trng nn bn.

[1] M hnh o ngc cc nh u v vai (Head-and-shoulders top reversal) : M hnh o ngc khuynh hng truyn thng ny xut hin khi th trng to ra mt

im cao mi (left shoulder), gim xung, tng ln n nh mi cao hn (head) v gim tr li, sau tng ti 1 nh cao mi sau 1 thi gian c th l bng vi nh bn tri (left shoulder) v sau th gim tr li. im mu cht y l 1 ng tim cn neckline hoc l 1 ng nm ngang m c th ni 2 im thp trn th.

[2] Khi gi rt xung thp hn neckline, l du hiu kt thc s tng gi v c kh nng bt u 1 t gim gi ca th trng. Tuy nhin, trong nhiu trng hp gi c khuynh hng i ngc vi xu hng th trng v vy s dng li cha to ra mt xu hng gim gi ngay. i khi im dng li ca ng tim cn xut hin nh 1 s gin on hoc bo hiu 1 xu hng gim gi mnh, ng h cho s o ngc v gi. M hnh u v vai l mt trong nhiu loi m hnh th khc nhau m c s dng hoch nh cho chin lc v gi. Cc nh phn tch o lng khong cch t nh head n ng tim cn ca th sau tr i khong cch t im ngng ca ng tim cn tnh ton xem gi c th gim n mc no. M hnh o ngc cc y u v vai (Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal) : C th ni m hnh 2 y l nghch o ca m hnh 2 nh, cc y vai v u th

cng ging cc nh vai v u nhng ngc li. iu ny c ngha l gi trt xung 1 mc thp (left shoulder), tng tr li sau 1 thi gian, sau gim xung n 1 mc thp hn (head), li tng tr li v sau cng l h xung ln na n 1 mc thp xp x vi mc left shoulder (right shoulder).

[3] ng tim cn ca th rt quan trng. Khi gi vt khi ng tim cn ny, m hnh o ngc kt thc v 1 xu hng tng tim nng c th xut hin. Cng vi cc nh vai v u, c th c 1 vi giao dch [4] v pha sau v pha trc theo c 2 pha ca ng tim cn khi th trng quyt nh chn hng i, v khong cch gia ng tim cn v nh head c th c s dng d on xem gi c th bin ng nh th no. M hnh st gi theo 1 mi nhn (Falling wedge) : M hnh ny xut hin khi th trng ang trong xu hng ng lot gim gi v cc loi gi cao gim nhanh hn cc loi thp, ging nh dng mi nhn. Ngi bn c th y gi n mc thp hn nhng do c 1 lng mua h tr gi th trng khng b gim gi thp hn. Cui cng sc mnh ca bn bn bt u cn dn v khng th khin gi th trng gim thp hn na, v th trng bt u bt dy khi th lc ca bn bn vt hn bn mua. Nhng m hnh nh th ny thng c hng tng gi v l im bo c 1 s thay i khuynh hng th trng.

[5] M hnh tng gi theo 1 mi nhn (Rising wedge) : M hnh ny ngc li vi m hnh trn v xut hin khi th trng xu hng tng gi. Ngi mua tip tc y y cc loi gi thp trong ngy ln, nhng ngi mua gi cho gi th trng khng ln qu cao. Sau cng vic mua gim v ngi bn nm th trng, v y gi xung thp hn mi nhn tm thi ca xu hng tng gi. Nhng m hnh nh th ny thng c hng gim gi v l im bo c 1 s thay i khuynh hng th trng.

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M hnh kim cng (diamond pattern) : y l 1 m hnh him thy xut hin thng xut hin nhng th trng gi cao. S hay thay i tng ln cc mc gi cao hn, to ra 1 phm vi ca gi trn v gi sn trong 1 giao dch [4] rng hn to nn 1 on rng nht ca m hnh kim cng. Sau s thay i ny gim xung v pha phi ca cc mc gi cao v dy bin ng gi tr nn hp hn khi xu hng ging nh dng m hnh tam gic kt thc din bin ca m hnh kim cng. S hay thay i theo hng thp, cao, thp lin tip nhau ny thng t to ra chiu hng ca mnh n khi kt thc.

[7] Nh vy, cc bn tm hiu xong cc m hnh tip din v cc m hnh o chiu c bn. lm quen vi vic nhn din ra cc m hnh ny trn biu , bn cn thi gian tp luyn. Bn nn bt u bng vic xem li cc biu trong qu kh v th tm xem cc m hnh ny xut hin nh th no. Khi quen vi vic nhn din ra chng, bn s nm bt c nhiu c hi giao dch [4] tt. Mi chi tit thc mc vui lng lin h Email: kent@forexcafe.vn.