View
214
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Synoptic-statistical approaches to regional
downscaling of IPCC 21st century climate
projections: A Hawaiian Islands study
Oliver Timm,
International Pacific Research Center, SOEST, University of
Hawai'i at Manoa
Henry Diaz, NOAA/ESRL/CIRES, Boulder, Colorado
Thomas Giambelluca Dept. Geography, University of Hawai'i at
Manoa
IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report, 2007:
(more than 20 climate models took part)
precipitation change: likely to decrease
but for Hawaii, no robust signalsModels show a drier
climate
Models results inconsistentMost models: drier climateMost models: wetter
climate
No significant changeModels show a wetter
climate
Introduction:
H
H
Synoptic (=weather-related) studies:
Months with high/low precipitation in Hilo site of Big Island
[sea level pressure, wet season (Nov-Apr) between 1970-2000]
High Preciptation Low Preciptation
Rainfall controlled by large-scale circulation
Trade Wind RegimeKona Wind Regime
Model #1 Model #28 Model #30
Model #38 Model #40 Model #53
IPPC 21st century diagnostics: Changes in the mean
sea level pressure, wet season 2061-2099
Projected rainfall changes
Dry season May-October 2030-2060
Rainfall change
in percent of
present rainfall amount
Projected rainfall changes
Wet season November-April 2030-2060
Rainfall change
in percent of
present rainfall amount
Projected rainfall changes
Dry season May-October 2060-2100
Rainfall change
in percent of
present rainfall amount
Projected rainfall changes
Wet season November-April 2060-2100
Rainfall change
in percent of
present rainfall amount