Supply and Demand for Teachers in Tennessee (December 2009)

716 Stokely Management Center Knoxville, Tennessee 37996Phone: (865) 974-5441Fax: (865) 974-3100http://cber.bus.utk.edu

Center for Business andEconomic Research

Andrew Johnson Tower - 6th Floor710 James Robertson ParkwayNashville, TN 37243Phone: (615) 741-2731http://www.state.tn.us/education/

404 James Robertson ParkwaySuite 1900 Nashville, TN 37243Phone: (615) 741-3605http://www.state.tn.us/thec/

A JOINT PROJECT OF THE UNIVERSITY OF TENNESSEE CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH, THE TENNESSEE DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION AND THE TENNESSEE HIGHER EDUCATION COMMISSION

Donald J. BruceAssociate Professor, CBER

William F. FoxDirector, CBER

Brian M. DouglasResearch Associate, CBER

Melissa O. ReynoldsResearch Associate, CBER

Zhou YangGraduate Research Assistant, CBER

December 2009

S U P P L Y A N D D E M A N D F O R T E A C H E R S I N T E N N E S S E E

http://cber.bus.utk.eduhttp://www.state.tn.us/educationhttp://www.state.tn.us/thechttp://cber.bus.utk.edu

TableofContents

Introduction.....................................................................................................................................1

ClassroomTeacherDemandProjections........................................................................................1

StudentEnrollmentProjections..................................................................................................2

PupilteacherRatioDetermination.............................................................................................3

DataSources................................................................................................................................5

ClassroomTeacherSupplyProjections...........................................................................................6

ClassroomTeacherResupplyMethodology................................................................................7

EstimatesforTeacherSupplyandDemandandtheGap................................................................8

S U P P L Y A N D D E M A N D F O R T E A C H E R S I N T E N N E S S E E |1

Introduction

ThisreportprovidesestimatesofteachersupplyanddemandforeveryLocalEducationAgency(LEA)inTennesseeforeachschoolyearfrom20092010through20132014.Theestimateswerepreparedtoassistinlocalandstateplanningastherequiredhiringanddevelopmentofnewteachersisidentified.Thereportincludesabriefdescriptionofthemethodologiesthatwereusedtoestimateteachersupply,demand,andthegapbetweenthetwo.ThegaprepresentsthenumberofteachersthatmustbehiredtomeettheincreaseddemandasthenumberofstudentsgrowsandtoalsomeetthevacanciesthatariseasteachersleavetheTennesseeeducationworkforce.ThegapshouldbeinterpretedasthenumberofnewteachersthatmustbehiredperyearineachLEA,andthestatetotal,ifwearetocontinuemeetingTennesseansdemandsforeducationandteachers.1

Thereportbeginswithadiscussionofthemethodology,withseparatesectionsdescribingthedemandforteachersandthesupplyofteachers.Thequantitativeestimatesofteachersupply,demand,andthegapareaggregatedtothestatelevelandreportedinthesectionfollowingthemethodology.EstimatesforteachersupplyanddemandandthegapforeachLEAareprovidedintheAppendix.ThereaderinterestedonlyintheprojectionscanturntoTables3and8(pages10and15)fortheaggregatestateresultsandtotheAppendixforlistingsbyLEA.ThesixLEAsinCarrollCountyhavebeenaggregatedtoasinglesetofestimatesashavethetwoLEAsinMarionCounty.Also,someofthemoredetailedestimatesforindividualLEAshavebeenhiddentoavoididentifyingthelikelihoodthatindividualteacherswillleavethestateeducationworkforce.

ClassroomTeacherDemandProjections

Teacherdemandprojectionsaredevelopedforschoolyears20092010through20132014.2WebeginbydevelopingstudentenrollmentprojectionsbygradeforeachLEA.WeassumethatdemandforteachersisarticulatedthroughthepupilteacherratiothatisusedforeachgradelevelineachLEA.Thus,appropriatepupilteacherratiosaredeterminedbygradegroup(k3,48,912),anddividedintotheprojectedstudentenrollmentstoyieldtherequiredteachercountsforeachgradegroupforeachLEA.TheresultistheestimatedminimumnumberofteachersthattheLEAneedstomeetthedemandforeducation.

1NoeffortismadetoaccountforanychangesinthedemandforteachersthatwouldariseiftherewereadjustmentsinthewayinwhicheducationisdeliveredinTennessee.Inanyevent,anyimplicationsarisingfromchangesinourmeansofdeliveringeducationwouldberelativelysmalloverafiveyeartimehorizon.2Allteachersareassignedtoaspecificpurposebasedonhowtheyspendthepreponderanceoftheirtime.


NosimplemeasureexistsforthenumberofteachersthatisnecessarytomeetthedemandforeducationinTennessee.Shortofastudytodeterminethisdemandandthenecessarynumberofteachers,werelyonthedemandforteachersbasedonpupilteacherratiosthathavebeenarticulatedintwoways.Onesetofratiosisderivedfromstatutorilydeterminedpupilteacherrequirements.ThisrepresentsdemandasarticulatedthroughtheGeneralAssembly.Instatute,therearedifferentpupilteacherratiosfordifferentgradegroups.Therearealsosubjectmattercurriculumrequirements3atthe912gradelevels.Projectionsusingtheseratiostellustheminimumnumberofteachersneededinordertosatisfytherequirements.Thenumberofrequiredteachersisalwaysroundedupwardstoensuretherequiredpupilteacherratiosarenotexceeded.4

ThesecondapproachtoidentifyingapupilteacherratiothatrepresentsdemandusestheloweroftheactualpupilteacherratioforeachgradegroupintheLEAandthestaterequirements.ThisapproachallowsLEAstoestablishhigherdemandforeducationthanisrequiredbystatute.Wedescribethissetofprojectionsasthebestratio.ProjectionsbasedonthissecondapproachevidencethenumberofteachersneededassumingtheLEAsknowthenumberofteachersneededtodeliverthequalityofeducationthatiscurrentlydemandedbytheirlocalpopulations.LEAscouldincrease(ordecrease)thedemandforteachersrelativetotheforecastsbydecreasing(orincreasing)theirpupilteacherratioaslongastheyatleastmaintainthestatutoryrequirements.StudentEnrollmentProjections

Enrollmentestimateswerepreparedforthenextfiveyearsasthebasisfortheteacherdemandforecasts.Enrollmentprojectionsaredrawnfromestimatesdevelopedofthegradeprogressionrateforgrades1through12andprojectedenrollmentratesofthepopulationforkindergartenstudentsforeachschooldistrict.Thegradeprogressionrateistheproportionofstudentsinagivengradeforagivenyeartothenumberofstudentsinthepreviousgradeinthepreviousyear.Therateprovidesameanstocapturegradespecifictrendsintheretentionofstudentsfromoneyeartothenext.

Theiruniquecharacteristicsrequireadifferentmethodologyforstudentsenteringkindergartenandstudentsenrolledinvariousstudentcategoriesbesidestheindividualgradesincludingspecialeducation,ESL,andmusicandarts.Apublicschoolenrollmentrateforkindergarteniscreatedbydividingthenumberofkindergartenersenrolledinschoolbytheestimatednumberof5and6yearoldseligibletoenterkindergarten.Thisenrollmentratecapturesthemostrecenttrends,aswellastheeffectsofeconomicconditionsanddemographicchanges.Becauseofthehighvolatility

3Weusethecurriculumrequirementsthatareinplaceasof2013,sonochangeinteacherdemandinthisstudyresultsfromchangesincurriculumrequirements.4Requiredpupilteacherratiosmustbeachievedattheschoollevel,nottheLEAlevel.Appropriateadjustmentshavebeenmadetoaccountforthisdifference.


ofspecialeducationstudentsandthelackofconsistentdata,weassumetheproportionofspecialeducationtothetotalK12nonspecialeducationenrollmentisequaltotheLEAspecificratiofor20072008andisconstantoverthenextfiveyearsforeachLEA.Similarly,weassumethatESLandvocationalstudentseachremainafixedpercentageoftheprojectedstudentcounts.5Further,weassumethatmusic,artsandphysicaleducationteachersmaintainaconstantratiotothenumberofstudents.

Forkindergartenenrollmentratesandgradeprogressionratios,(grades1through12),separateweightingschemesareevaluatedtodeterminewhatcombinationofpastratioscouldbestpredictthefutureforeachLEA.Thebestschemeistheonethatproducesthelowestmeanabsolutepercentageerrorwhencomparingtheprojectedenrollmentstotheactualenrollmentsinhistory.Thebestprojectedratesarethenappliedtothecurrentenrollmentbygradeandupdatedtoyieldprojectionsforfutureyears.

Themethodsusedtoforecastgradeprogressionratesandenrollmentratesimplicitlyincludetheneteffectofsuchfactorsasmigration,dropouts,deaths,andtransferstoandfromprivateschoolsbasedontheassumptionthatpasttrendsinfactorsaffectingpublicschoolenrollmentswillcontinueoverthenextfiveyears.ThemethodislessreliablewhenappliedtoLEAswithunusualchangesinmigrationratesorotherfactors.PupilteacherRatioDetermination

Asnotedabove,twosetsofpupilteacherratiosareusedtoprepareprojections.ThefirstisderivedassumingthateachLEAmeetsthemaximumaverageclasssizeandthecurriculumrequirementssetbythestate.Differentpupilteacherratiosareusedfork3,48and912becauseofthedifferentrequirements.Theaveragepupilteacherratio(ratioofpupilstooneteacher)setbystatuteforthedifferentgradegroupsare:

Grade AverageClassSizeK3 2048 25912 30

Theestimatesforgrades912mustbebuiltuponasubjectlevelbasisbecause

ofcurriculumrequirements.Allstudentsingrades912arerequiredtotake22unitsofcredittograduate,whichincludeasetofrequiredcoursesacross10subjectmatterareas.Weassumethateachsubjectmatterisuniformlyofferedacrosstheacademic

5ESLteachershavegrownrapidlyinrecentyears,buttherearewidedifferencesacrossLEAs.Forthatreason,wedonotfeelthatreliableestimatesoftherateofgrowthinESLteacherscanbeobtained.Thenumberofvocationalstudentsmayalsogrowrapidlytomeeteconomicdemands,butwehavenobasisonwhichtoforecasttheincrease.Thus,bothareeffectivelyassumedtomaintainaconstantratiotothestudentpopulation.


year,theaverageclassloadperteacherisassumedtobe5units,andtheaveragestudenttakes6unitsperyear(sothatstudentsareassumedtotake24unitsacrosstheirfouryears).Then,weestimatethenumberofclassesofeachsubjectmatterareathatmustbeofferedeachyeartomeetthecurriculumrequirements.Thenumberofclassesisthenconvertedintothenumberofrequiredteachersineachsubjectmatterarea.Therequirednumberofelectives(whichisincreasedfrom3to5toaccommodatetheadditionaltwounitsthatstudentsareassumedtotake)istreatedasaresidualbyassumingthatteacherswhoarepartiallyavailabletoteachsomethingotherthantheirmainsubjectareacanteachanelective.

ThesecondpupilteacherratioistheminimumofthestaterequirementdescribedinthepreviousparagraphandcurrentpracticewithineachLEA.ThedataevidencethatsomeLEAshavelowerpupilteacherratiosin20072008thanthoserequiredbystatute.

Theteacherdemandestimatesusingthissecond,preferredmethodologyarereportedinTable1.Atotalof67,866teachersaredemandedin2010,ofwhichaboutthreefourthsareinkindergartenthrough12thgrade.OthercolumnsintheTableevidenceprojecteddemandforteachersforsubsequentyears.Thedemandestimatesrepresent2.0percentannualgrowthinthenumberofteachersandarisesentirelyfromprojectedgrowthinenrollmentandhowitinteractswithpupilteacherratios.


Table1:StatewideTeacherDemandbasedonBestRatio

ClassroomTeachers 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

PreKTeacher 1,283 1,302 1,336 1,305 1,314

Kindergarten 4,807 4,940 5,087 4,948 4,988

Grade1Teacher 4,591 5,070 5,212 5,373 5,218

Grade2Teacher 4,245 4,234 4,672 4,798 4,938

Grade3Teacher 4,440 4,356 4,346 4,799 4,944

Grade4Teacher 3,832 3,868 3,791 3,788 4,181

Grade5Teacher 3,697 3,752 3,799 3,727 3,737

Grade6Teacher 3,807 3,921 3,983 4,026 3,965

Grade7Teacher 3,786 3,966 4,096 4,152 4,193

Grade8Teacher 3,506 3,600 3,771 3,911 3,945

Grade912Teacher 13,164 13,094 13,153 13,474 13,820

Math 2,203 2,193 2,201 2,261 2,318

Science 1,652 1,640 1,653 1,690 1,736

English 2,203 2,193 2,201 2,261 2,318

Other 7,106 7,068 7,098 7,262 7,448

Music/Art/PE(Elem) 4,352 4,478 4,665 4,809 4,850

ESLTeacher 786 801 821 838 854

Vocational 3,033 3,082 3,140 3,198 3,250

SpecEd/Home/Hosp 7,043 7,177 7,335 7,493 7,630

Ch1TeacherElem 1,364 1,395 1,443 1,489 1,498

Ch1TeacherSec 130 132 133 131 131

Total 67,866 69,168 70,783 72,259 73,456

Note:Yearindicatestheendingpointofanacademicyear.Forexample,2010means

20092010.

DataSources

Studentenrollmentanddemandforpublicschoolteachersareprojectedmainlyusingannualdataonstudentenrollmentsandteachersforthe19981999tothe200809schoolyearsprovidedbytheTennesseeDepartmentofEducation(TDOE).CurriculumrequirementsarealsotakenfromtheTDOE.CountylevelbirthdataarefromtheTennesseeDepartmentofHealth.


ClassroomTeacherSupplyProjections

Thecoreelementofoursupplysideanalysisisthecalculationofannualpredictionsofthenumberofteachersthatarelikelytoremainintheircurrentclassroomteacherjobsinthefollowingyear.Toaccomplishthis,webeginbyfollowingourrecentworkonteachermobility6byestimatingastatisticalmodelofteachertransitionsbetweenthe20062007and20072008schoolyears.7Classroomteachersin20062007cantransitionintoanyofthefollowingoutcomesin20072008:

Remainintheircurrentdistrict(ouroutcomeofinterest), Movetoadifferentdistrict,or LeavetheTennesseeeducationdataentirely.

Thestatisticalmodelallowsustoassesstheimpactofeachofavarietyoffactors

ontheprobabilitiesthatteacherswillmakethevariousabovetransitions.DataforthiscomponentofouranalysiscomefromtheannualPIRSfilesfromtheTennesseeDepartmentofEducation.

Wecontrolforavarietyofteachercharacteristicsinthestatisticalmodel,alldefinedasofthe20062007schoolyear.Specifically,weincludetwomeasuresofincome:thebaseteachersalaryandthetotalvalueofsupplementstothebaseteachersalary.Wecontrolfortheteacherslevelofeducationbyincludingindicatorvariablesfor(a)havingaMastersdegreebutnothingfurtherand(b)havingmorethanaMastersdegree(havinglessthanaMastersdegreeisthereferencecategory).Weincludeacontinuousmeasureoftheteachersexperienceinyears.Finally,weincludeindicatorsformalegenderandblack,other,ormissingrace(wherewhiteisthereferencecategory).

Resultsofthestatisticalmodelsuggestthatseveralfactorsarerelatedtothedecisiontoremaininthecurrentdistrict.Specifically,wefindthatteacherswithhigherbasesalariesandmoresalarysupplementsaremorelikelytoremainintheircurrentdistrict(althoughthosewithmoresupplementsareslightlymorelikelytoleavethedata).TeacherswithlessthanaMastersdegreearemorelikelytoremainintheircurrentdistrictthanthosewithmoreeducation.Therateatwhichclassroomteachersmovebetweendistrictsfallswithexperience,whiletherateatwhichtheyleavethedatariseswithexperience.Femaleteachersaremorelikelytoremainintheircurrentdistrict,asareblackteachersregardlessofgender.Teachersofothernonwhiteracesarelesslikelytoremainintheircurrentdistricts.

6TeacherMobilityinTennessee,ReportpreparedbytheUniversityofTennesseeCenterforBusinessandEconomicResearchfortheGovernorsOfficeofStatePlanningandPolicy,July2009.7Specifically,weestimateamultinomiallogitmodel.Additionaldetailsaboutourstatisticalapproach,aswellasafullsetofresults,areavailableuponrequest.


Thenextstepofoursupplysideanalysisinvolvesapplyingtheresultsofthestatisticalmodeltoteachercharacteristicsfromthe20072008schoolyear.Doingsoallowsustopredicttheprobabilityofstayinginthecurrentdistrictforeachofthe64,073teachersinthe20072008data.Duetoproblemswiththe20082009PIRSdata,wecarrytheseteachersforwardtothe20092010schoolyearasourstartingpointfortheremainingsupplysideanalysis.Wethengenerateannualpredictedprobabilitiesofstayinginthecurrentdistrictforeachteacherbyincrementingtheirexperiencebyoneineachsubsequentyearbutleavingallothervariablesinthemodelconstant.Theendresultofthisstageofthesupplysideanalysisisasetofannualpredictedprobabilitiesofstayinginthecurrentdistrictforall64,073teachersforschoolyearsfrom20102011through20132014.

Next,weassumethatteachersinthebottomtenpercentofthedistributionofpredictedprobabilitiesofstayingintheircurrentdistrictaretheteacherswhoarepredictedtoleavetheircurrentdistrictsbetween20092010and20102011.Thisisbasedontheobservationthatoverthe20012002to20072008yearsofthePIRSdata,theannualaverageprobabilitythatclassroomteachersremainintheircurrentdistrictrangedfrom89to91percent.8

Lookingatthe90percentof20092010classroomteacherswhoareassumedtoremainintheircurrentdistrictsinto20102011,wethenassumethatteachersinthebottomtenpercentoftheremainingdistributionofprobabilitiesofstayingaretheonestoleavetheirdistrictsbetween20102011and20112012(seeTable2).Werepeatthisprocedureforallremainingyearsoftheclassroomteachersupplysimulation.Inthestatewidesupplytablesbelow,eachyearstotalremainingsupplyofclassroomteachersis90percentoftheprioryearstotal.Thesetotalsaresubtractedfromsimilarteacherdemandtotalstogenerateinitialestimatesofthegapbetweendemandandsupply.ClassroomTeacherResupplyMethodology

Werecognizethatthegapbetweendemandandsupplyhashistoricallybeenpartiallyfilledbythreeimportantsourcesofteacherresupply.First,approximatelytwopercentofeachyearsclassroomteacherschangedistrictsbetweenyears.Thesemoverscreatejobopeningsforthedistrictstheydepart,butdonotactuallycreatenewteacherpositionsfromthestatesperspectiveandthusshouldnotbeconsideredaspartofthetruegapbetweendemandandsupply.Toaccountforthis,westartbyassumingthattwopercentofthe20092010classroomteachers(or1,281outof64,073)changedistrictsby20102011.Wethencarrythisforwardbyassumingthat92percentoftheprioryearsmoversremainintheirnewdistrictormovetoyetanotherdistrict(therebyremainingintheteacherdata),andthattwopercentoftheteachersintheprioryearstotalpredictedremainingclassroomteachersupplychangedistricts.

8Theaverageacrossallyearswasjustunder91percent,butthemorerecentyearswerelowersoweapplyaconstantrateof90percentgoingforward.


Second,Tennesseehighereducationinstitutionsproducearegularsupplyofnewlycertifiedteacherseachyear.Toestimatethepartofeachyearsgapthatwillbefilledbythisformofnewsupply,westartbyassumingthat2,203newteachesenterthedataineachschoolyearaftertheinitialyear(basedonthehistoricaveragefromtheTHECCompletersdata).Wecarryforward92percentoftheprioryearsnewsupply(representingthosenewteacherswhoremainintheteacherdata),addingthisincreasingamounttotheannualnewsupplyof2,203teachers.

Third,werecognizethatmanyclassroomteacherswholeavethedatareturntotheclassroominasubsequentyear.BasedonthehistoricalPIRSdata,thisamountsto622teachersonaveragereenteringthedataeachyear.Toaccountforthisinourtables,webeginbyassumingthat622teacherswholeftthedatainsomeprioryearreturntothedatainthe20102011schoolyear.Wethenfollowthenewsupplystrategyabovebycarrying92percentoftheprioryearsreturningteachersforwardandaddinganother622returningteacherseachyear.

EstimatesforTeacherSupplyandDemandandtheGap

Table3providesempiricalestimatesforteacherdemandandsupplyandthegapforallLEAswhenaggregatedtothestatelevelusingthebestratioapproach.AsimilarversionisprovidedinTable8exceptthatteacherdemandisbasedonthestatutorypupilteacherratios.Teachersupplyisthesameinbothversions.Thus,thedifferenceinthegapsbetweenTables3and8arisessolelyfromthealternativemeasuresofdemand.

ThefirstsectionofTable3containstheDemandestimatesandisrepeatedfromTable1.Anestimated67,866teachersarenecessarytomeetthetotaldemandforteachersinTennesseein2010.Demandisprojectedtogrowoverthenextfouryearsatacompound2.0percentannuallyto73,456.TheestimatesweredevelopedseparatelyforeachLEAandthenaggregated,andtheratesofgrowthdiffersignificantlyacrossLEAs.Thegrowthindemandresultssolelyfromthegrowthinthepredictednumberofstudents.Thestudentestimateslyingbehindtheteacherforecastsaredevelopedseparatelyforeachgradelevel(ineachLEA)asdiscussedearlier.

SupplyestimatesarecontainedinthesecondsectionofTable3andarerepeatedfromTable2.The2010teachersupplyisassumedtoequalthenumberofteachersinschoolyear20072008becausewehavenoreliablecountsforthelasttwoyears.Teachersupplyforsubsequentyearserodesasweforecastthepropensityfortheteachersthatarepresentinthe2010educationworkforcetoleavetheTennesseeeducationworkforceinfutureyears.Approximately10percentofteachersleavetheirLEAeachyear.


Table2:StatewideTeacherSupply

ClassroomTeachers 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

PreKTeacher 1,025 962 853 763 654

Kindergarten 4,093 3,884 3,633 3,297 2,929

Grade1Teacher 4,464 4,196 3,877 3,515 3,158

Grade2Teacher 4,111 3,861 3,570 3,243 2,940

Grade3Teacher 4,250 3,956 3,616 3,267 2,909

Grade4Teacher 3,665 3,415 3,138 2,850 2,559

Grade5Teacher 3,470 3,206 2,904 2,611 2,362

Grade6Teacher 3,511 3,197 2,919 2,617 2,343

Grade7Teacher 3,595 3,171 2,810 2,544 2,288

Grade8Teacher 3,315 2,903 2,610 2,335 2,095

Grade912Teacher 13,089 11,118 9,677 8,584 7,752

Math

Science

English

Other

Music/Art/PE(Elem) 4,003 3,481 3,088 2,750 2,484

ESLTeacher 682 611 495 424 354

Vocational 2,836 2,457 2,118 1,867 1,666

SpecEd/Home/Hosp 6,649 6,056 5,490 5,021 4,607

Ch1TeacherElem 1,209 1,098 1,021 937 858

Ch1TeacherSec 106 93 79 72 67

Total 64,073 57,665 51,898 46,697 42,025

Note:Yearindicatesthenumberofteachersprojectedtostayintheirdistrictsforthatacademicyear.Forexample,2010meansteachersfrom20082009schoolyearwho

areprojectedtostayintheirdistrictsin20092010.

ThegapestimatesareprovidedinthelastsectionofTable3.Thegapin2010(3,793teachers)arisesbecausewebeginwiththesupplyofteachersthatwasworkinginLEAsin20072008.Inalllikelihood,LEAshavealreadyhiredmostoralloftheseteachers.Differencesinthe2010gapacrosscategoriesofteachersrepresentedbytherowsinthetableresultmostlyfromourneedtoplaceteachersintospecificgroups.Thus,thelargegapinESLteachersisbecausemanyESLteachersarecategorizedintooneoftheothergroupssincetheyspendthemajorityoftheirtimeteachingotherclasses.

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Thegapafter2010resultsfromgrowthindemandthatoccursasthenumberofstudentsincreasesandfromteacherdeparturesfromtheTennesseeeducationlaborforce.Thegapreaches31,431teachersby2014.Thegapisprojectedtogrowtoequal43.1percentofthe2010supplyofteachersbetween2010and2014(Table4).Growthinthegapdifferssignificantlybycategoryofteacher.ThelargestestimatedpercentagegapisforESLteachers,eventhoughourestimatesdonotallowforcontinuedrapidincreaseinthedemandforESLteachers.Thus,weareprobablyunderstatingthegapforESLteachers.Musicandarts,8thgrade,andvocationalteacherswillalsoexperiencerelativelylargegaps.Again,growthindemandforvocationalteachersmayexceedourestimatesasgreateremphasisisplacedonjobskills,sothegapmaybeunderestimated.Thegapinkindergartenteachersisexpectedtobethesmallest.

Table4:BestRatioGapasaPercentageofthe2010TeacherSupply

ClassroomTeachers Gapas%of2010Supply

PreKTeacher 39.2

Kindergarten 32.9

Grade1Teacher 43.3

Grade2Teacher 45.3

Grade3Teacher 43.4

Grade4Teacher 39.7

Grade5Teacher 33.1

Grade6Teacher 37.8

Grade7Teacher 47.7

Grade8Teacher 50.0

Grade912Teacher 45.8

Math

Science

English

Other

Music/Art/PE(Elem) 50.4

ESLTeacher 58.1

Vocational 48.9

SpecEd/Home/Hosp 39.5

Ch1TeacherElem 40.1

Ch1TeacherSec 37.7

Total 43.1


Asnotedabove,weestimatethreesourcesforfillingthegap:thenumberof

teacherswhomovefromoneLEAtoanother,thenumberofnewlyeducatedteachers,andthenumberofteacherswholeavetheeducationworkforceforatleastoneyearandthenreturn.9TheseestimatesarereportedinTable5.Weestimatethat1,281teacherswillshiftbetweenLEAseachyear.ThelosingLEAsmustreplacetheteachers,buttheteachersarestillpartofTennesseessupply.Intotal,thiswillprovide3,861teachersacrossthefouryears.Anestimated2,203teacherseachyearwillbenewlyeducatedatTennesseepublicandprivateuniversitiesandcolleges.ThisisbasedonourestimatethatapproximatelytwothirdsofnewgraduateswhoareavailabletoteachchoosetoteachinTennesseeeachyear.Theactualexperiencebyyearsincethe20022003schoolyearisreportedinTable6.Finally,622teachersonaveragereturntotheTennesseeeducationlaborforceeachyearafterpreviouslyexitingthelaborforceforatleastoneyear.Intotal,thesesourcesofnewsupplywillprovide13,878teachersbetween2010and2014,oronehalfoftheincreasedgapbetween2010and2014.10TheremaininggapinteachersmustbefilledwithnewgraduatesfromoutsideofTennessee,newlyrecruitedteachersfromoutsideofTennesseeandpeopletransitioningfromothercareerstobecometeachers.

Table5:BestRatioTeacherGapandResupply

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Total Gap

3,793

11,503

18,885

25,562

31,431

Movers inside TN

1,281

2,332

3,184

3,863

New Teachers

2,203

4,230

6,094

7,810

Returning Teachers

622

1,194

1,721

2,205

Remaining Gap

7,397

11,129

14,563

17,553

9ThepotentialforsubsequenterosionfromtheTennesseelaborforceofthesevariousgroupsofteachersisaccountedforeachofthetotals.10Equaltotheincreaseinthegapfrom2010to2014(31,4313,793)dividedintothetotalofthesethreecategoriesofnewsupply(13,878).


Table6:PercentofTotalGraduatesthatAppearinPIRSDataperSubsequentYear

AllPIRSData(includesClassroomTeachers,Administrators,etc.)(percent)

Graduates 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

2002 62.9 62.7 61.1 60.0 58.2 56.0 53.5

2003 61.5 62.6 61.2 59.6 58.0 55.2

2004 61.3 63.5 61.9 59.9 55.8

2005 62.5 63.0 61.4 57.0

2006 62.9 65.8 61.0

2007 56.1

2008 56.1

ClassroomTeachersinPIRSData(percent)

Graduates 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

2002 58.2 57.6 55.7 53.9 51.7 49.0 46.1

2003 57.5 58.3 56.5 54.4 52.1 48.7

2004 56.9 58.5 56.7 54.2 49.8

2005 58.8 58.9 56.6 52.1

2006 58.7 60.8 55.7

2007 54.6

2008 55.2

Notes:2002=20012002schoolyear;Datafor2007graduatesappearingin2008subsequentdatawasnotsufficient.

Noattemptwasmadetoestimategapsforspecificcategoriesof9ththrough12thgradeteachersbecauseofdifficultiesindefiningwhichsubjectmatterisbeingtaughtbyeachindividualteachertoday.Thenumbersofnewlyeducatedteacherswhowereendorsedinareassuchasphysics,elementarygrades19,andphysicaleducationareshowninTable7.ItwouldseemapparentthatLEAswillhavedifficultyfillingslotsinanumberoftheseareasfromtheeducationpipelineandtheseteachersmustbeobtainedfromtheothermeans.


Table7:LowestNumberofEndorsementsattainedbyRecentTennesseeGraduates

Endorsement NumberEndorsed

ELEMGRADES19 2

PHYSICS712 13

PHYSICS912 1

EARTH/SPACESCIENCE712 1

ENGLISHAS2NDLANG 9

FRENCHPREK12 9

FRENCH712 1

BUSINESSARITHMETIC712 2

GENERALBUSINESS712 1

PHYEDUCATIONK8 2

PHYEDUCATION712 1

TECHNOLOGYEDUC512 10

VOCAL/GENERALMUSICK12 1

SPEDEARLYCHLDPREK3 2

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Introduction

ThisreportprovidesestimatesofteachersupplyanddemandforeveryLocalEducationAgency(LEA)inTennesseeforeachschoolyearfrom20092010through20132014.Theestimateswerepreparedtoassistinlocalandstateplanningastherequiredhiringanddevelopmentofnewteachersisidentified.Thereportincludesabriefdescriptionofthemethodologiesthatwereusedtoestimateteachersupply,demand,andthegapbetweenthetwo.ThegaprepresentsthenumberofteachersthatmustbehiredtomeettheincreaseddemandasthenumberofstudentsgrowsandtoalsomeetthevacanciesthatariseasteachersleavetheTennesseeeducationworkforce.ThegapshouldbeinterpretedasthenumberofnewteachersthatmustbehiredperyearineachLEA,andthestatetotal,ifwearetocontinuemeetingTennesseansdemandsforeducationandteachers.1

Thereportbeginswithadiscussionofthemethodology,withseparatesectionsdescribingthedemandforteachersandthesupplyofteachers.Thequantitativeestimatesofteachersupply,demand,andthegapareaggregatedtothestatelevelandreportedinthesectionfollowingthemethodology.EstimatesforteachersupplyanddemandandthegapforeachLEAareprovidedintheAppendix.ThereaderinterestedonlyintheprojectionscanturntoTables3and8(pages10and15)fortheaggregatestateresultsandtotheAppendixforlistingsbyLEA.ThesixLEAsinCarrollCountyhavebeenaggregatedtoasinglesetofestimatesaswellasthetwoLEAsinMarionCounty.Also,someofthemoredetailedestimatesforindividualLEAshavebeenhiddentoavoididentifyingthelikelihoodthatindividualteacherswillleavethestateeducationworkforce.

ClassroomTeacherDemandProjections

Teacherdemandprojectionsaredevelopedforschoolyears20092010through20132014.2WebeginbydevelopingstudentenrollmentprojectionsbygradeforeachLEA.WeassumethatdemandforteachersisarticulatedthroughthepupilteacherratiothatisusedforeachgradelevelineachLEA.Thus,appropriatepupilteacherratiosaredeterminedbygradegroup,anddividedintotheprojectedstudentenrollmentstoyieldtherequiredteachercountsforeachgradegroupforeachLEA.TheresultistheestimatedminimumnumberofteachersthattheLEAneedstomeetthedemandforeducation.

1NoeffortismadetoaccountforanychangesinthedemandforteachersthatwouldariseiftherewereadjustmentsinthewayinwhicheducationisdeliveredinTennessee.Inanyevent,anyimplicationsarisingfromchangesinourmeansofdeliveringeducationwouldberelativelysmalloverafiveyeartimehorizon.2Allteachersareassignedtoaspecificpurposebasedonhowtheyspendthepreponderanceoftheirtime.

16

Appendix: LEA Analysis

Teacher Demand Note: Year indicates the ending point of an academic year. For example, 2010 means 2009-2010.

Teacher Supply Note: Year indicates the number of teachers projected to stay in their districts for that academic year. For example, 2010 means teachers from 2008-2009 school year who are projected to stay in their districts in 2009-2010.

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Thisreportprovidesestim

atesofteachersupplyanddemandforeveryLocal

EducationAgency(LEA

)inTennesseeforeachschoolyearfrom20092010through

20132014.Theestimatesw

erepreparedtoassistinlocalandstateplanningastherequiredhiringanddevelopm

entofnewteachersisidentified.Thereportincludesa

briefdescriptionofthemethodologiesthatw

ereusedtoestimateteachersupply,

demand,andthegapbetw

eenthetwo.Thegaprepresentsthenum

berofteachersthatm

ustbehiredtomeettheincreaseddem

andasthenumberofstudentsgrow

sandtoalsom

eetthevacanciesthatariseasteachersleavetheTennesseeeducationworkforce.Thegapshouldbeinterpretedasthenum

berofnewteachersthatm

ustbehiredperyearineachLEA

,andthestatetotal,ifwearetocontinuem

eetingTennesseansdem

andsforeducationandteachers. 1

Thereportbeginswithadiscussionofthem

ethodology,withseparatesections

describingthedemandforteachersandthesupplyofteachers.Thequantitative

estimatesofteachersupply,dem

and,andthegapareaggregatedtothestatelevelandreportedinthesectionfollow

ingthemethodology.Estim

atesforteachersupplyanddem

andandthegapforeachLEAareprovidedintheA

ppendix.ThereaderinterestedonlyintheprojectionscanturntoTables3and8(pages10and15)fortheaggregatestateresultsandtotheA

ppendixforlistingsbyLEA.ThesixLEA

sinCarrollCountyhavebeenaggregatedtoasinglesetofestim

atesaswellasthetw

oLEAsinM

arionCounty.Also,som

eofthemoredetailedestim

atesforindividualLEAshavebeenhiddentoavoid

identifyingthelikelihoodthatindividualteacherswillleavethestateeducation

workforce.

ClassroomTeacherD

emandProjections

Teacherdem

andprojectionsaredevelopedforschoolyears20092010through20132014. 2W

ebeginbydevelopingstudentenrollmentprojectionsbygradeforeach

LEA.W

eassumethatdem

andforteachersisarticulatedthroughthepupilteacherratiothatisusedforeachgradelevelineachLEA

.Thus,appropriatepupilteacherratiosaredeterm

inedbygradegroup,anddividedintotheprojectedstudentenrollmentstoyield

therequiredteachercountsforeachgradegroupforeachLEA.Theresultisthe

estimatedm

inimum

numberofteachersthattheLEA

needstomeetthedem

andforeducation. 1N

oeffortismadetoaccountforanychangesinthedem

andforteachersthatwouldariseiftherew

ereadjustm

entsinthewayinw

hicheducationisdeliveredinTennessee.Inanyevent,anyimplications

arisingfromchangesinourm

eansofdeliveringeducationwouldberelativelysm

alloverafiveyeartime

horizon.2A

llteachersareassignedtoaspecificpurposebasedonhowtheyspendthepreponderanceoftheir

time.

17

DISTRICT

Classroom Teachers 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

GAP (DEMAND-SUPPLY)TEACHER DEMAND TEACHER SUPPLY

Classroom Teachers 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Pre-K Teacher 22 21 23 22 22 17 14 13 12 7 5 7 10 10 15Kindergarten 31 29 32 31 31 24 23 23 23 22 7 6 9 8 9Grade 1 Teacher 32 37 35 38 37 28 27 26 25 19 4 10 9 13 18Grade 2 Teacher 24 28 31 30 33 29 27 25 25 23 -5 1 6 5 10Grade 3 Teacher 29 24 27 31 29 24 23 22 21 16 5 1 5 10 13Grade 4 Teacher 26 29 24 27 31 25 25 21 21 19 1 4 3 6 12Grade 5 Teacher 28 28 32 26 30 27 24 21 20 15 1 4 11 6 15Grade 6 Teacher 32 32 33 37 31 31 24 15 13 13 1 8 18 24 18Grade 7 Teacher 31 32 32 33 37 30 26 23 20 18 1 6 9 13 19Grade 8 Teacher 25 25 26 26 27 24 21 20 19 17 1 4 6 7 10Grade 9-12 Teacher 95 92 90 92 93 102 87 73 65 60 -7 5 17 27 33 Math 16 15 15 15 16 Science 12 12 11 12 12 English 16 15 15 15 16

Other 51 50 49 50 49

Anderson County

Other 51 50 49 50 49Music/Art/PE (Elem) 35 35 37 39 39 31 26 19 19 18 4 9 18 20 21Vocational 49 49 50 51 52 47 44 35 32 28 2 5 15 19 24Spec Ed/Home/Hosp 72 73 74 76 78 70 64 53 47 44 2 9 21 29 34Ch 1 Teacher Elem 30 31 33 34 34 27 27 27 27 24 3 4 6 7 10Ch 1 Teacher Sec 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total 563 567 581 595 606 537 483 417 389 343 26 84 164 206 263

Note:SomedetailedestimatesforthisLEAhavebeenhiddentoavoididentifyingthelikelihoodthatindividualteacherswillleavethestateeducationworkforce.

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EducationAgency(LEA









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DISTRICT GAP (DEMAND-SUPPLY)TEACHER DEMAND TEACHER SUPPLY

Classroom Teachers 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Classroom Teachers 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Kindergarten 8 7 8 8 8 6 6 6 5 2 2 1 2 3 6Grade 1 Teacher 8 9 9 10 9 8 8 8 8 6 0 1 1 2 3Grade 2 Teacher 7 7 8 7 8 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 3 4Grade 3 Teacher 8 9 8 9 9 7 7 7 6 5 1 2 1 3 4Grade 4 Teacher 5 5 5 5 6 5 4 4 3 3 0 1 1 2 3Grade 5 Teacher 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 3 1 0 0 2 4Grade 6 Teacher 7 7 6 6 7 5 5 5 4 4 2 2 1 2 3Grade 7 Teacher 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Grade 8 Teacher 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Grade 9-12 Teacher 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Math 0 0 0 0 0 Science 0 0 0 0 0 English 0 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0 0Music/Art/PE (Elem) 8 8 8 9 9 6 6 6 6 5 2 2 2 3 4

Clinton

Music/Art/PE (Elem) 8 8 8 9 9 6 6 6 6 5 2 2 2 3 4ESL Teacher 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Vocational 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Spec Ed/Home/Hosp 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 6 5 5 2 2 2 3 3Ch 1 Teacher Elem 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1Ch 1 Teacher Sec 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total 72 72 72 74 76 57 56 56 48 39 15 16 16 26 37


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EducationAgency(LEA









berofteachersthatm



sandtoalsom


















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ClassroomTeacherD

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horizon.2A


time.

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Classroom Teachers 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Classroom Teachers 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Pre-K Teacher 16 15 16 16 16 14 14 11 9 7 2 1 5 7 9Kindergarten 24 23 25 24 24 22 19 18 14 13 2 4 7 10 11Grade 1 Teacher 22 23 22 24 23 20 17 16 15 15 2 6 6 9 8Grade 2 Teacher 22 23 25 23 26 19 19 17 17 15 3 4 8 6 11Grade 3 Teacher 21 24 25 27 25 22 19 16 16 14 -1 5 9 11 11Grade 4 Teacher 16 15 17 18 19 17 14 11 10 9 -1 1 6 8 10Grade 5 Teacher 18 17 16 18 19 14 13 12 10 10 4 4 4 8 9Grade 6 Teacher 15 19 18 17 19 16 16 14 12 11 -1 3 4 5 8Grade 7 Teacher 25 23 29 27 25 24 22 20 20 19 1 1 9 7 6Grade 8 Teacher 19 20 18 22 21 18 17 15 12 8 1 3 3 10 13Grade 9-12 Teacher 82 82 83 83 87 83 79 68 58 52 -1 3 15 25 35 Math 14 14 14 14 15 Science 10 10 10 10 11 English 14 14 14 14 15

Other 44 44 45 45 46

Oak Ridge

Other 44 44 45 45 46Music/Art/PE (Elem) 34 35 37 37 37 31 24 19 14 13 3 11 18 23 24ESL Teacher 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2Vocational 13 13 14 14 14 12 9 9 7 6 1 4 5 7 8Spec Ed/Home/Hosp 41 42 43 44 45 39 31 27 25 21 2 11 16 19 24Ch 1 Teacher Elem 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Ch 1 Teacher Sec 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total 372 378 392 398 404 354 315 275 241 215 18 63 117 157 189

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berofteachersthatm



sandtoalsom


















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horizon.2A


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Classroom Teachers 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Classroom Teachers 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Pre-K Teacher 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 1 2 2 2 3Kindergarten 48 49 50 49 49 41 37 36 35 28 7 12 14 14 21Grade 1 Teacher 37 43 43 44 43 31 30 28 26 22 6 13 15 18 21Grade 2 Teacher 33 34 40 40 41 24 20 19 19 19 9 14 21 21 22Grade 3 Teacher 38 38 39 46 46 35 33 30 28 24 3 5 9 18 22Grade 4 Teacher 42 45 44 46 54 40 37 37 37 37 2 8 7 9 17Grade 5 Teacher 33 34 37 36 37 32 31 29 27 27 1 3 8 9 10Grade 6 Teacher 26 26 27 29 29 23 21 20 20 16 3 5 7 9 13Grade 7 Teacher 23 26 26 27 29 22 16 14 14 13 1 10 12 13 16Grade 8 Teacher 23 23 26 26 27 12 10 8 8 7 11 13 18 18 20Grade 9-12 Teacher 105 100 96 98 101 109 97 85 81 72 -4 3 11 17 29 Math 18 17 16 16 17 Science 13 13 12 12 13 English 18 17 16 16 17

Other 56 53 52 54 54

Bedford County


Total 543 556 572 589 607 485 437 404 384 349 58 119 168 205 258

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EducationAgency(LEA









berofteachersthatm



sandtoalsom


















atesaswellasthetw

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horizon.2A


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Classroom Teachers 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Classroom Teachers 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Pre-K Teacher 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2Kindergarten 16 16 16 16 16 12 10 9 8 8 4 6 7 8 8Grade 1 Teacher 12 16 15 15 15 13 13 13 11 10 -1 3 2 4 5Grade 2 Teacher 11 10 13 13 13 10 10 10 9 8 1 0 3 4 5Grade 3 Teacher 11 12 11 14 14 11 11 10 8 7 0 1 1 6 7Grade 4 Teacher 12 12 13 11 15 12 12 11 11 10 0 0 2 0 5Grade 5 Teacher 13 12 12 13 12 10 10 9 9 9 3 2 3 4 3Grade 6 Teacher 11 14 13 13 14 11 9 8 8 7 0 5 5 5 7Grade 7 Teacher 11 10 13 12 12 10 10 10 9 7 1 0 3 3 5Grade 8 Teacher 8 8 8 10 9 8 8 7 5 5 0 0 1 5 4Grade 9-12 Teacher 38 38 39 40 41 37 31 30 29 27 1 7 9 11 14 Math 6 6 7 7 7 Science 5 5 5 5 5 English 6 6 7 7 7

Other 21 21 20 21 22

Benton County

Other 21 21 20 21 22Music/Art/PE (Elem) 14 15 15 16 16 12 9 7 7 7 2 6 8 9 9Vocational 11 12 12 12 13 10 6 5 5 4 1 6 7 7 9Spec Ed/Home/Hosp 19 19 20 20 21 17 16 14 13 13 2 3 6 7 8Ch 1 Teacher Elem 5 5 5 6 6 4 4 4 3 3 1 1 1 3 3Ch 1 Teacher Sec 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total 197 204 210 216 222 180 162 150 138 127 17 42 60 78 95


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horizon.2A


time.

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Classroom Teachers 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Classroom Teachers 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Pre-K Teacher 7 7 8 7 7 5 4 4 4 4 2 3 4 3 3Kindergarten 11 11 13 12 12 9 9 9 9 9 2 2 4 3 3Grade 1 Teacher 8 10 10 11 10 9 9 8 7 7 -1 1 2 4 3Grade 2 Teacher 11 9 11 11 13 10 10 10 10 10 1 -1 1 1 3Grade 3 Teacher 9 9 8 9 9 7 6 6 4 4 2 3 2 5 5Grade 4 Teacher 10 10 10 8 10 8 8 8 8 8 2 2 2 0 2Grade 5 Teacher 9 11 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 5 0 2 2 3 4Grade 6 Teacher 7 7 8 7 8 7 6 6 6 6 0 1 2 1 2Grade 7 Teacher 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 0 0 0 2 1Grade 8 Teacher 7 7 7 6 8 6 5 5 5 5 1 2 2 1 3Grade 9-12 Teacher 23 24 25 26 25 23 19 18 17 16 0 5 7 9 9 Math 4 4 4 4 4 Science 3 3 3 3 3 English 4 4 4 4 4

Other 12 13 14 15 14

Bledsoe County


Total 150 153 162 160 163 136 120 115 108 104 14 33 47 52 59

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Classroom Teachers 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Classroom Teachers 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Pre-K Teacher 13 13 13 13 13 11 11 11 9 8 2 2 2 4 5Kindergarten 60 60 62 61 61 55 52 52 47 39 5 8 10 14 22Grade 1 Teacher 53 57 57 58 57 52 48 46 42 37 1 9 11 16 20Grade 2 Teacher 50 49 53 53 55 50 49 45 43 39 0 0 8 10 16Grade 3 Teacher 56 55 54 58 59 48 44 40 36 31 8 11 14 22 28Grade 4 Teacher 47 54 54 53 57 41 38 37 35 32 6 16 17 18 25Grade 5 Teacher 44 50 57 56 56 38 36 31 27 22 6 14 26 29 34Grade 6 Teacher 44 50 56 65 64 40 38 36 33 28 4 12 20 32 36Grade 7 Teacher 42 46 52 59 68 40 39 36 33 30 2 7 16 26 38Grade 8 Teacher 37 39 42 48 54 30 28 27 26 25 7 11 15 22 29Grade 9-12 Teacher 161 163 174 183 199 130 113 102 91 85 31 50 72 92 114 Math 27 27 29 31 33 Science 20 20 22 23 25 English 27 27 29 31 33

Other 87 89 94 98 108

Blount County

Other 87 89 94 98 108Music/Art/PE (Elem) 40 40 41 42 42 37 31 27 24 22 3 9 14 18 20ESL Teacher 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Vocational 55 58 61 64 67 48 46 41 38 35 7 12 20 26 32Spec Ed/Home/Hosp 92 97 103 108 113 81 74 71 61 59 11 23 32 47 54Ch 1 Teacher Elem 7 7 7 7 7 6 4 4 3 3 1 3 3 4 4

Total 803 840 888 930 974 708 651 606 548 495 95 189 282 382 479

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EducationAgency(LEA









berofteachersthatm



sandtoalsom


















atesaswellasthetw

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workforce.

ClassroomTeacherD

emandProjections

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eassumethatdem





estimatedm

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needstomeetthedem

andforeducation. 1N



ereadjustm

entsinthewayinw





horizon.2A


time.

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Classroom Teachers 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Classroom Teachers 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Pre-K Teacher 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 1 1 2 3 3Kindergarten 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 4 0 0 2 1 4Grade 1 Teacher 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 1 1 2 2 2Grade 2 Teacher 7 8 7 8 8 6 6 3 2 2 1 2 4 6 6Grade 3 Teacher 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4Grade 4 Teacher 7 9 9 10 9 5 5 5 5 5 2 4 4 5 4Grade 5 Teacher 7 8 11 12 12 5 5 5 4 4 2 3 6 8 8Grade 6 Teacher 5 6 7 10 10 5 5 3 3 3 0 1 4 7 7Grade 7 Teacher 6 5 6 8 10 5 5 5 4 4 1 0 1 4 6Grade 8 Teacher 7 7 6 8 10 6 6 6 5 5 1 1 0 3 5Grade 9-12 Teacher 30 32 34 34 36 28 22 19 16 15 2 10 15 18 21 Math 5 5 6 6 6 Science 4 4 4 4 5 English 5 5 6 6 6

Other 16 18 18 18 19

Alcoa


Total 126 133 140 150 156 106 98 83 74 69 20 35 57 76 87

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EducationAgency(LEA









berofteachersthatm



sandtoalsom


















atesaswellasthetw

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needstomeetthedem

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ereadjustm

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horizon.2A


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Classroom Teachers 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Classroom Teachers 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Pre-K Teacher 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1Kindergarten 20 20 21 20 20 18 17 16 15 12 2 3 5 5 8Grade 1 Teacher 25 27 27 28 27 23 22 20 15 13 2 5 7 13 14Grade 2 Teacher 18 20 21 21 22 18 15 15 12 9 0 5 6 9 13Grade 3 Teacher 26 22 23 25 25 27 21 20 18 17 -1 1 3 7 8Grade 4 Teacher 20 18 16 17 18 14 11 9 9 9 6 7 7 8 9Grade 5 Teacher 22 25 24 20 22 20 19 18 17 16 2 6 6 3 6Grade 6 Teacher 18 20 22 21 18 16 14 12 11 9 2 6 10 10 9Grade 7 Teacher 17 19 20 23 22 18 17 10 9 9 -1 2 10 14 13Grade 8 Teacher 16 15 16 18 20 14 14 12 10 9 2 1 4 8 11Grade 9-12 Teacher 79 79 79 79 81 77 65 59 51 46 2 14 20 28 35 Math 13 13 13 13 14 Science 10 10 10 10 10 English 13 13 13 13 14

Other 43 43 43 43 43

Maryville


Total 343 348 354 358 362 321 283 253 216 195 22 65 101 142 167

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EducationAgency(LEA









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ClassroomTeacherD

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ereadjustm

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Classroom Teachers 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Classroom Teachers 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Pre-K Teacher 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Kindergarten 42 43 43 43 43 39 39 36 31 26 3 4 7 12 17Grade 1 Teacher 45 47 48 48 47 42 42 36 33 29 3 5 12 15 18Grade 2 Teacher 42 44 46 47 47 43 43 40 37 32 -1 1 6 10 15Grade 3 Teacher 43 41 43 45 46 40 39 37 33 24 3 2 6 12 22Grade 4 Teacher 41 40 39 41 43 38 37 33 29 21 3 3 6 12 22Grade 5 Teacher 34 37 36 34 36 33 33 30 27 21 1 4 6 7 15Grade 6 Teacher 25 25 27 26 25 24 22 20 17 16 1 3 7 9 9Grade 7 Teacher 68 55 56 60 58 61 57 47 44 42 7 -2 9 16 16Grade 8 Teacher 29 32 26 26 28 30 25 23 16 13 -1 7 3 10 15Grade 9-12 Teacher 169 177 188 190 181 156 137 114 101 90 13 40 74 89 91 Math 28 30 31 32 30 Science 21 22 24 24 23 English 28 30 31 32 30

Other 92 95 102 102 98

Bradley County


Total 679 683 697 709 701 637 598 510 450 382 42 85 187 259 319

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EducationAgency(LEA









berofteachersthatm



sandtoalsom


















atesaswellasthetw

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ClassroomTeacherD

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needstomeetthedem

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ereadjustm

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horizon.2A


time.

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Classroom Teachers 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Classroom Teachers 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Pre-K Teacher 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1Kindergarten 23 23 23 23 23 21 20 20 18 15 2 3 3 5 8Grade 1 Teacher 23 25 25 25 25 24 23 21 20 16 -1 2 4 5 9Grade 2 Teacher 22 21 22 23 23 18 18 17 16 14 4 3 5 7 9Grade 3 Teacher 22 24 23 24 24 22 22 20 17 16 0 2 3 7 8Grade 4 Teacher 20 20 21 20 22 17 16 14 14 12 3 4 7 6 10Grade 5 Teacher 19 22 21 23 22 18 17 15 14 12 1 5 6 9 10Grade 6 Teacher 19 19 22 21 23 16 12 12 11 10 3 7 10 10 13Grade 7 Teacher 17 19 20 23 22 17 16 15 15 15 0 3 5 8 7Grade 8 Teacher 16 16 18 19 22 16 15 13 11 11 0 1 5 8 11Grade 9-12 Teacher 59 58 56 59 61 61 52 47 41 33 -2 6 9 18 28 Math 10 10 9 10 10 Science 7 7 7 7 8 English 10 10 9 10 10

Other 32 31 31 32 33

Cleveland


Total 334 343 349 360 368 316 282 258 236 208 18 61 91 124 160

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EducationAgency(LEA









berofteachersthatm



sandtoalsom


















atesaswellasthetw

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workforce.

ClassroomTeacherD

emandProjections

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needstomeetthedem

andforeducation. 1N



ereadjustm

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horizon.2A


time.

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Classroom Teachers 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Classroom Teachers 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Pre-K Teacher 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 6 6 5 2 2 2 2 3Kindergarten 28 28 29 28 28 22 19 19 19 18 6 9 10 9 10Grade 1 Teacher 40 42 41 43 42 38 35 34 33 33 2 7 7 10 9Grade 2 Teacher 29 30 31 31 32 30 28 28 28 28 -1 2 3 3 4Grade 3 Teacher 25 24 25 26 25 18 18 18 18 18 7 6 7 8 7Grade 4 Teacher 20 20 19 20 21 14 12 11 11 10 6 8 8 9 11Grade 5 Teacher 61 62 61 58 60 60 55 48 42 40 1 7 13 16 20Grade 6 Teacher 34 35 35 34 33 30 27 21 20 18 4 8 14 14 15Grade 7 Teacher 19 21 21 21 21 9 9 8 8 8 10 12 13 13 13Grade 8 Teacher 35 37 41 41 42 34 26 20 20 20 1 11 21 21 22Grade 9-12 Teacher 99 109 108 107 112 92 73 62 54 52 7 36 46 53 60 Math 17 18 18 18 19 Science 12 14 14 13 14 English 17 18 18 18 19

Other 53 59 58 58 60

Campbell County

Other 53 59 58 58 60Music/Art/PE (Elem) 15 15 16 16 16 13 12 12 12 12 2 3 4 4 4ESL Teacher 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Vocational 42 44 44 44 45 37 28 23 22 19 5 16 21 22 26Spec Ed/Home/Hosp 49 51 51 51 52 43 40 40 39 38 6 11 11 12 14Ch 1 Teacher Elem 7 7 8 8 8 6 5 5 5 5 1 2 3 3 3

Total 513 535 540 538 547 453 394 356 337 324 60 141 184 201 223

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Introduction



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Classroom Teachers 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Classroom Teachers 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Pre-K Teacher 4 4 5 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 3 3 3Kindergarten 12 13 14 13 13 10 9 9 8 8 2 4 5 5 5Grade 1 Teacher 11 13 14 15 14 11 10 9 8 8 0 3 5 7 6Grade 2 Teacher 13 12 14 15 16 13 12 11 10 8 0 0 3 5 8Grade 3 Teacher 12 11 11 12 13 10 10 10 9 9 2 1 1 3 4Grade 4 Teacher 11 12 11 11 12 9 8 8 7 6 2 4 3 4 6Grade 5 Teacher 9 11 12 11 11 10 10 10 8 8 -1 1 2 3 3Grade 6 Teacher 10 9 10 11 11 9 9 8 8 8 1 0 2 3 3Grade 7 Teacher 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 6 6 6 1 1 1 2 3Grade 8 Teacher 8 8 8 7 8 6 6 6 6 6 2 2 2 1 2Grade 9-12 Teacher 33 33 33 34 34 33 29 24 19 18 0 4 9 15 16 Math 6 6 6 6 6 Science 4 4 4 4 4 English 6 6 6 6 6

Other 17 17 17 18 18

Cannon County

Other 17 17 17 18 18Music/Art/PE (Elem) 13 13 14 14 15 11 9 9 8 8 2 4 5 6 7Vocational 7 7 7 7 8 6 4 4 4 4 1 3 3 3 4Spec Ed/Home/Hosp 20 20 21 21 22 18 18 16 16 14 2 2 5 5 8Ch 1 Teacher Elem 7 7 8 8 8 6 5 5 5 5 1 2 3 3 3

Total 182 185 193 195 202 164 151 139 125 119 18 34 54 70 83


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E|1

Introduction



EducationAgency(LEA









berofteachersthatm



sandtoalsom










estimatesoftea

Documents

Supply and Demand for Teachers in Tennessee (December 2009)