Upload
others
View
1
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
energy.gov/sunshot
energy.gov/sunshot
SunShot Getting to Ubiquitous Solar
Lidija Sekaric, Program Manager
Technology to Market
energy.gov/sunshot
So what is the SunShot Initiative?
1
SunShot Initiative SunShot Initiative
6 ¢/kwh without subsidy
A 75% cost reduction by the end of the decade
Pri
ce
energy.gov/sunshot energy.gov/sunshot
2030 Utility Scale PV Base Case
OR
ID
NV
MT ND
SD
NE
WY
UT
NM AR
MS
AZ SC
OK
KS
ME
WA
CA CO
TX
MO
IL
IA
MN
WI
MI
OH
KY
TN
AL GA
VA
NY
PA
LA
NC
IN
Installed PV (GW)
< 0.1
0.1 - 1
1 - 5
5 - 10
10 - 20
20 - 30
> 30
OR
ID
NV
MT ND
SD
NE
WY
UT
NM AR
MS
AZ OK
KS
ME
WA
CA CO
TX
MO
IL
IA
MN
WI
MI
OH
KY
TN
AL GA
VA
NY
PA
LA
NC
IN
Installed Capacity: 30 GW
1.5% of electrical demand
modeled with Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS)
capacity-expansion model
energy.gov/sunshot energy.gov/sunshot
WV
MD
NJ
CT
RI
MA
FL FL
VT VT NH NH
2030 Utility Scale PV with SunShot
OR
ID
NV
MT ND
SD
NE
WY
UT
NM AR
MS
AZ SC
OK
KS
ME
DE
WA
CA CO
TX
MO
IL
IA
MN
WI
MI
OH
KY
TN
AL GA
VA
NY
PA
LA
NC
IN
Installed PV (GW)
< 0.1
0.1 - 1
1 - 5
5 - 10
10 - 20
20 - 30
> 30
OR
ID
NV
MT ND
SD
NE
WY
UT
NM AR
MS
AZ SC
OK
KS
ME
WV
WA
CA CO
TX
MO
IL
IA
MN
WI
MI
OH
KY
TN
AL GA
VA
NY
PA
LA
MD
NC
IN
CT
RI
NJ
MA
DE
Installed Capacity: 302 GW
14% of electrical demand
energy.gov/sunshot
Technology Readiness Level 1
9
PV
C
SP
S
I T
M
BO
S
High Pen Solar Deployment, $24M, FY09-14
SEGIS-AC, $30M, FY11-13
Plug and Play $21M, FY12-16
Solar Forecasting, $30M, FY11-13
BOS-X, $30M, FY11-13
SolarABCs, $5M, FY08-12
RESEARCH DEVELOPMENT DEMONSTRATION DEPLOYMENT
HiBREDs, $20M, FY13 – FY15 CSP R&D, $39.7M, FY12-15
F-PACE, DOE/NSF, $35.8M, FY11-14
BRIDGE, $2.6M, FY12
Next Generation PV, $24.5M, FY11-15
Incubator 1-7, $92M, FY07-12
Incubator 8, $12M, FY13-17
SUNPATH, $37M, FY11-13
Supply Chain, $20.3M, FY11-14 PVMI, $112.5M, FY11-16
Rooftop Solar Challenge I, $12.5M, FY11-13
SUNRISE, $10M, FY13-15 SunShot Prize, $10 M, FY12-16
Non-Hardware Balance of System, $13.6M, FY11-14
SEEDS, $9M, FY13-16
SunShot Programs
F-PACE II, $12M, FY13-FY16
Distance Solar, $4M, FY13-FY16
PREDICTS, $2.5M, FY13-FY16
MURI, $10.5M, FY12-15
CSP Supply Chain, $22.9M, FY12-15
Rooftop Solar Challenge II, $12M, FY13-15
Solar(MAT) $15M, FY13-17
Baseload CSP Generation, $54.7M, FY10-14 CSP Storage, $27.9M, FY09-13
CSP ELEMENTS, $20M, FY13 – FY14
PREDICTS, $2.5M, FY14 – FY17
CSP Novel Concentrator, $20M, FY14 – FY17
CSP SunShot, $60M, FY12-16
GEARED, $12M, FY13-18
energy.gov/sunshot
Soft costs reduction: 64% of cost of a
residential system
Grid integration with higher penetration of
solar and other renewables
CSP as an enabling technology for other
renewables, thanks to thermal storage:
Supercritical CO2 to advance CSP performance
As part of CEMI, capture a greater portion of
the global value add in manufacturing
60% progress towards 2020
objectives
More than 10 GW of PV on the
nation’s grid, 4.75 GW added in
2013: 10x growth rate from 2009
Unprecedented job growth (143k
jobs, 20% growth year-over-year)
SunShot Incubator spurring small
business growth, private sector
investment: $18 in private
follow-on funding for every $1 of
DOE investment
MAJOR PROGRESS PRIORITY AREAS
2010 2020 2013
SunShot Initiative: Solar Grid Parity by 2020
energy.gov/sunshot energy.gov/sunshot
PV R&D
Tech to Market
CSP R&D Systems
Integration
Balance of Systems
The SunShot Portfolio
energy.gov/sunshot energy.gov/sunshot
CSP R&D
The SunShot Portfolio
energy.gov/sunshot energy.gov/sunshot
PV R&D
The SunShot Portfolio
energy.gov/sunshot
World Record Cell Efficiencies
• ~50% of the world record cell efficiencies since 1975 were made by researchers supported by the DOE
9
energy.gov/sunshot
Limited Conversion Efficiencies Improvement for Deployed Technologies (c-Si)
Caroline Davidson, NREL, March 2013
(unpublished).
energy.gov/sunshot
Close the PV efficiency gaps
• Scientific foundation for overcoming technical barriers
• Improved understanding of materials and devices
Understand the science of device degradation
Get NREL to reclaim leadership in many areas
Back to Basics: Cell Efficiency, Model Systems,
PREDICTS
31%
18% 15% 13% 12% 10%
2%
43%
25%
20% 20% 17%
12%
8%
63%
29% 29% 29%
29%
20%
14%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
CPV (3J) c-Si mc-Si CIGS CdTe a-Si OPV
Effi
cie
ncy
Theoretical Maximum
Laboratory Record (cell)
Typical Production (Module)
energy.gov/sunshot energy.gov/sunshot
Systems Integration
The SunShot Portfolio
energy.gov/sunshot
Moderate to high
precipitation; harsh
winter conditions, low
DNI
Hot, humid,
(subtropical
conditions);
moderate DNI Hot and arid
high DNI.
High altitude,
temperate
climate
Subtropical; high DNI;
high temperatures
Field Validation of PV Systems
energy.gov/sunshot
Developing technology to better integrate solar with the grid
energy.gov/sunshot energy.gov/sunshot
Balance of
Systems
The SunShot Portfolio
energy.gov/sunshot
Soft Costs remain a formidable barrier to more solar deployment…
energy.gov/sunshot
energy.gov/sunshot
Rooftop Solar Challenge
energy.gov/sunshot
22 Rooftop Solar Challenge Teams
Cut red tape by 1 week
600 MW installed
40,000 installations
40,000 weeks of red tape = 768 Years of red tape
energy.gov/sunshot energy.gov/sunshot
Tech to Market
The SunShot Portfolio
energy.gov/sunshot energy.gov/sunshot
Manufacturing innovation and
scale-up
Strategic analysis:
- Cost - Competitiveness
- Market
Commercialization and business innovation
Tech to Market Portfolio
energy.gov/sunshot
Solar Technology Expectations Before 2008
Gartner
Hype
Cycle
energy.gov/sunshot energy.gov/sunshot
Technology Readiness Level 1 9
Co
mm
erc
ializati
on
RESEARCH DEVELOPMENT DEMONSTRATION DEPLOYMENT
Incubator 1-9, $92M, FY07-13
Incubator 8, $12M, FY13
SUNPATH, $37M, FY11-14
Supply Chain, $20.3M, FY11-14
PVMI, $112.5M, FY11-16
Tech-to-Market Programs
SolarMat 1, $15M, FY13
Incubator 9, $10M, FY13
SolarMat 2, $25M, FY14 Man
ufa
ctu
rin
g
Mark
et
An
aly
sis
NREL Analysis
SBIR/STTR, ~$3-4M, annually
23
Technology-agnostic, market-focused
energy.gov/sunshot
Global Annual PV Shipments by Region
24
Poly c-
Si, 55%
Mono c-
Si, 36%
a-Si, 2%
CdTe,
5%
CIS/CIG
S, 2%
PV Technology Share of
Shipments, 2013
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
'97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
U.S
. M
ark
et
Sh
are
Pe
rce
nta
ge
PV
Mo
du
le S
hip
me
nts
(G
W)
ROWEuropeJapanU.S.TaiwanChinaU.S. Share
energy.gov/sunshot
Manufacturing – why do it?
“Abandoning today's ‘commodity’
manufacturing can lock you out of
tomorrow's emerging industry.”
- Andy Grove, co-founder, former CEO, Intel
energy.gov/sunshot 26
SunShot Manufacturing Strategy
Build on the innovation track record
Regain the supply chain
new, high-value tools and components
Support pilot, as well as scale up
Develop advanced manufacturing concepts
Goodrich et. al., “Assessing the drivers of regional trends in
solar photovoltaic manufacturing,” Energy Environ. Sci.
energy.gov/sunshot
Government interventions have distorted regional competition.
• Low-cost capital and scale,
• Corporate-tax holidays,
• Subsidized capex, land-use rights.
Supply-chain activities are collocating w/mfg.
• Skilled labor, and transport costs,
• Market access: ~40% of global PV demand to be based in Asia (by 2014)
U.S. Defensibility Scale (x-axis) factors, equally weighted:
1.) Clockspeed (product, process, organization, intangible assets), 2.) IP intensity, 3.) Trade secret or know how, 4.) Other barriers to entry (investment, regulatory, etc.).
Source: Goodrich, A.; Buonassisi, T.; Powell, D.; Woodhouse, M.; James, T. 2013. “Assessing the Drivers of Regional Trends in Solar
Photovoltaic Manufacturing.” Accepted by Energy and Environmental Science, March 2013.
US Competitiveness Analysis
Illustrative
(Draft)
energy.gov/sunshot
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014P 2015P 2016P
Ca
pa
cit
y (
GW
)
Thin Film Mfg. Capacity
c-Si Mfg. Capacity
Global Installation Additions
Global PV Manufacturing Capacity vs. Demand
28
Historic Projection
energy.gov/sunshot
29
Solar, Post-2016 Projections (GTM/SEIA)
Landscape for solar deployment post-2016 will highly depend on how far costs have decreased by 2016.
energy.gov/sunshot
SunShot Utility Scale Progress Q42013
Sources: Margolis , R., et al. (2012). "SunShot Vision Study." DOE/GO-102012-3037. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory,
pp. 265. Accessed 2013: http://www1.eere.energy.gov/solar/pdfs/47927_appendices.pdf; Goodrich, A; James, T; and Woodhouse, M.
“Residential, Commercial, and Utility-Scale Photovoltaic System Prices in the United States: Current Drivers and Cost Reduction
Opportunities.” NREL Technical Report No. TP-6A20-53347, Available Online at: www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/53347.pdf . ; NREL internal
(PV system cost) analysis (September 2013).
energy.gov/sunshot 31
Analysis work at NREL
• Internal market analysis: policy, installations • External market analysis • Foreign policy and investment strategy analysis • US competitiveness analysis: revenues, supply chain, value-add • Internal bottom-up cost analysis on:
• Poly andwafers (direct, thin epi, Siemens, FBR) • Cells (standard Si, PERC, IBC, HIT) • Single- and Dual-junction III-Vs and III-Vs on Si • LCPV, HCPV cells and systems • Systems LCOE: Utility, residential, mid-size systems • Regional LCOE • Trackers: assessing regional capacity factors • Critical elements supply chain analysis (availability, cost recovery,
recycling)
energy.gov/sunshot
Publications and Presentations
• Presentation at Stanford’s Precourt Institute, 2011
• Presentation at MIT Energy Initiative MITEI, 2012
• Journal article in Energy and Environmental Science, 2013
• Presentation at the National Academies of Science (MIT), 2013
energy.gov/sunshot
PV Manufacturers’ Cost
33 Sources: Corporate public filings.
• In Q4 ‘14 module costs were between $0.48-$0.58/W
• Q4 ‘13 costs from above companies are, on average, 14% less than Q4 ‘12
• Manufacturers have roadmaps to further lower costs and increase efficiencies
$0.00
$0.25
$0.50
$0.75
$1.00
$1.25
$1.50
$1.75
$2.00
$2.25
Q1 '10Q2 '10Q3 '10Q4 '10Q1 '11Q2 '11Q3 '11Q4 '11Q1 '12Q2 '12Q3 '12Q4 '12Q1 '13Q2 '13Q3 '13Q4 '13
Man
ufa
ctu
rin
g C
ost
(N
om
inal
$/W
)
Cost
Hanwha SolarOne
Jinko Solar
Canadian Solar
Trina Solar
Yingli
Suntech
First Solar
energy.gov/sunshot energy.gov/sunshot
Module, Cell, Wafer & Polysilicon Price
34 Sources: BNEF Solar Spot Price Index (04/10/14); HIS (March 2014) Note: error bars represent high and low quotes.
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$0.0
$0.4
$0.8
$1.2
$1.6
$2.0
$2.4
Jul-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
Po
lysi
lico
n $
/kg
$/W
att
(N
om
inal)
Polysilicon Spot (right axis)
c-Si Avg. (left axis)
Multi Wafers (left axis)
Multi Cells (left axis)
Recent study by IHS of over 200 global buyers suggests that reliability/quality is more important that price
energy.gov/sunshot
CA Systems Installed Without CSI
35
• Distributed PV installations in CA continue to grow, however majority of them are now doing
so without CSI incentives
• GTM reports that in Q4 ’13 AZ installed 15% of residential systems without incentives
Sources: CSI Database, accessed 04/02/14; GTM/SEIA Q4 2013 U.S. Solar Market Insight.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
50
100
150
200
250
Q4 '11 Q1 '12 Q2 '12 Q3 '12 Q4 '12 Q1 '13 Q2 '13 Q3 '13 Q4 '13
% o
f To
tal Q
ua
rte
rly
Ins
tall
ati
on
s
Qu
art
erl
y I
ns
tall
ati
os
n (
MW
)
CSI Installs Non-CSI, CA Distributed CSI % of Total
energy.gov/sunshot
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Dis
trib
ute
d P
V In
sta
lls
, C
um
. (
GW
)
Range of AnalystProjectionsBNEF - Distributed
Cumulative US PV Demand - Distributed
36 Sources: BNEF (H1 2014 US PV Market Outlook. March 28, 2014); Goldman Sachs (04/10/14); GTM/SEIA (Q4 2013 Solar Market Insight, March 2013). Note: P = projection.
Historic Projection
• BNEF is bullish on distributed solar getting to grid-parity with retail rates and net-metering caps being raised further
• BNEF is less bullish on utility-scale PV, predicting challenges once RPS goals have been met, and the continued low cost of natural gas
energy.gov/sunshot
Incubator Historical Funding (# of Awards)
Round 1 (2007)
Photovoltaics
10 Awards
energy.gov/sunshot
Incubator Historical Funding (# of Awards)
Round 2 (2008)
Photovoltaics
6 Awards
energy.gov/sunshot
Incubator Historical Funding (# of Awards)
Pre-Incubator (2009)
Photovoltaics
11 Awards
energy.gov/sunshot
Incubator Historical Funding (# of Awards)
Round 3 (2009)
Photovoltaics
4 Awards
energy.gov/sunshot
Incubator Historical Funding (# of Awards)
Round 4 (2010)
Photovoltaics
4 Awards
energy.gov/sunshot
Incubator Historical Funding (# of Awards)
Systems
Integration CSP
Round 5 (2011)
4 Awards
energy.gov/sunshot
Incubator Historical Funding (# of Awards)
Soft Costs
Round 6 (2012)
10 Awards
energy.gov/sunshot
Incubator Historical Funding (# of Awards)
Systems
Integration
CSP
Soft Costs
Photovoltaics
Round 7 (2012)
11 Awards
energy.gov/sunshot
Incubator Historical Funding (# of Awards)
Systems
Integration Soft Costs
Photovoltaics
Round 8 (2013)
20 Awards
energy.gov/sunshot
Historical Funding
• Early rounds saw large follow on funding
• Due to 2007-2008 solar investment enthusiasm
• Success and Failure of early round companies reflect market forces
Early Round Award Examples
energy.gov/sunshot
How hardware can drive down soft costs
Arc Fault Detection
Commercial and Utility
Install
Residential
Install
energy.gov/sunshot
Soft Cost Portfolio
energy.gov/sunshot
Find the Customer
energy.gov/sunshot
Prepare the quote
energy.gov/sunshot
Finance the system
energy.gov/sunshot
Install, Connect, Maintain
energy.gov/sunshot
Creating A Soft Cost Ecosystem
energy.gov/sunshot 54
• Solar as a Base Load Power Source
• All Solar is Local
• Open Innovation: SunShot Catalyst & Next Generation Government Prizes
• Bringing Solutions to the Solar Industry: Startups, Technology Development, & Market Entry
• Disruptive Solar Technologies: Frontiers in New Materials and Approaches
• Looking Forward: The Solar Market in 2040 • Solar in the Connected Building
• The New Science of Soft Costs: Tutorials in Big Data, Social Physics, and Randomized Pilots
• Business Innovation in Solar: Thriving Beyond Incentives
• A Look Ahead: PV Manufacturing in 10 Years • The Future of CSP: Opportunities and Challenges • Pitch for Solar • The SunShot Approach: How a Funding Opportunity is Born and Managed
• The Next Frontier for Solar Deployment: The Mid-Size Market
• Solar Securitization: Opportunities and Challenges
• Getting in the Loop: PV Hardware Recycling and Sustainability
SunShot Grand Challenge Summit May 19-22, 2014, Anaheim, CA
energy.gov/sunshot energy.gov/sunshot
Thank You
Dr. Lidija Sekaric SunShot Initiative