11

Northern Tier Transmission Group (NTTG)Northern Tier Transmission Group (NTTG)

Planning Subgroup Meeting Planning Subgroup Meeting

Summary Review of Previous StudiesSummary Review of Previous Studies

J. Austin/R. SchellbergJ. Austin/R. SchellbergMarch 14, 2007March 14, 2007

22

OverviewOverview

Why Regional Transmission Studies?Why Regional Transmission Studies?Types of Regional Transmission Studies?Types of Regional Transmission Studies?Making the Case for Transmission Expansion?Making the Case for Transmission Expansion?

33

Why Regional Transmission Studies?Why Regional Transmission Studies?

Interconnected System Interconnected System –– Western InterconnectWestern InterconnectSynergies (solutions that addresses inter Synergies (solutions that addresses inter Company, inter State congestions)Company, inter State congestions)Optimization Optimization –– Economy of scaleEconomy of scale

44

Types of Regional Transmission Types of Regional Transmission Studies?Studies?

I.I. Technical (Powerflow, Stability Technical (Powerflow, Stability –– defining system operating defining system operating limits)limits)

Integrate incremental loads & resources to meet reliability stanIntegrate incremental loads & resources to meet reliability standardsdardsPerforms transmission rating analysis (one hour test)Performs transmission rating analysis (one hour test)

II.II. Transmission Economic Studies Transmission Economic Studies –– uses system definition from uses system definition from the Technical studies and adds operating costs to give full the Technical studies and adds operating costs to give full prospective on choosing the right investmentprospective on choosing the right investment

MultiMulti--hour analysis (8760 system dispatch)hour analysis (8760 system dispatch)Dispatches based on least costDispatches based on least costPrioritizing and advocating specific economic expansion projectsPrioritizing and advocating specific economic expansion projectsProvides economic data for basis to:Provides economic data for basis to:

Develop or advocate cost allocationsDevelop or advocate cost allocationsFacilitate fundingFacilitate fundingProvide backstop permitting or approval authorityProvide backstop permitting or approval authority

55

Regional StudiesRegional StudiesWGA WGA –– Conceptual Plans for Electricity Conceptual Plans for Electricity Transmission in the WestTransmission in the WestSSGSSG--Wi Studies 2003, 2005Wi Studies 2003, 2005NTAC NTAC –– Canada to CaliforniaCanada to CaliforniaColorado Long Range Transmission Planning StudyColorado Long Range Transmission Planning StudyNevada State Office of Energy Nevada State Office of Energy –– T4 Win ProjectT4 Win ProjectRocky Mountain Area Transmission Study (RMATS)Rocky Mountain Area Transmission Study (RMATS)Montana Northwest Transmission Equal Angle ReportMontana Northwest Transmission Equal Angle ReportWest of Hatwai System Upgrade ProjectsWest of Hatwai System Upgrade ProjectsCanada to Northwest Intertie Expansion Canada to Northwest Intertie Expansion WECC Coordinated Phase Shifter OperationWECC Coordinated Phase Shifter Operation

DOE StudiesDOE StudiesSSGSSG--WI 2005 Study Program (2008 and 2015)WI 2005 Study Program (2008 and 2015)W.I, 2006 Path Utilization Study W.I, 2006 Path Utilization Study Clean and Diversified Energy InitiativeClean and Diversified Energy Initiative

Study Types:Type IType II

66

Making the Case for Transmission ExpansionMaking the Case for Transmission Expansion??

Clarify economic interestsClarify economic interestsServing loads and from where?Serving loads and from where?Who will have power to deliver and to from where?Who will have power to deliver and to from where?

Define economic projectsDefine economic projectsWhat are the constraining elements?What are the constraining elements?Often need wide area perspective to identify Often need wide area perspective to identify communities of interestcommunities of interest

Offer usage rights in return for investmentOffer usage rights in return for investment

77

COI

PDCI

Montana to NW

West of Broadview

Pavant Itermtn-Gonder

Borah West

Bridger West

Southwest of Four Corners

IPP DC

TOT 2A

Bonanza West

TOT 2CWOR

TOT 2B2

Wyoming – Utah

Northwest to Canada

Why no top-congested paths in California?

• ISO funding mechanism (load share allocation)

• Resources were added by CEC near load growth

• Three lines added into/within S. California

Year 2015 Year 2015 ---- SSGSSG--Wi AnalysisWi Analysis

Top Congested Top Congested PathsPaths

Western InterconnectWestern Interconnect

88

Dave Johnston

Antelope Mine

Jim Bridger

MidPoint

Ely

Marketplace

Mona

Oquirrh

Langdon

Navajo

Regional Expansion OptionsMontana to Northwest TransWest Express (Alt A)Ely Energy Center/SP/LSRMATS alt (modified)TOT 3 (w/TOT 5 extension)Canada – NW - California

LRS

Cheyenne

Ault

Green Valley

TOT 3

Emery Grand Junction

Grizzly

BellAshe

John Day

Malin

Tracy

Olinda

Tesla

Taft

Colstrip

99

Rocky Mountain Area Transmission Study Rocky Mountain Area Transmission Study (RMATS)(RMATS)

September 2004September 2004PurposePurpose

Utah and Wyoming Governors initiated this study to promote econoUtah and Wyoming Governors initiated this study to promote economic development mic development of lower cost coal and wind generation, and to quantify the valuof lower cost coal and wind generation, and to quantify the value of building e of building transmission to serve regional loads and to export generation totransmission to serve regional loads and to export generation to other parts of the other parts of the Western Interconnection.Western Interconnection.

MethodMethodRMATS was a Stakeholder driven study, determined the economic imRMATS was a Stakeholder driven study, determined the economic implications of plications of transmission expansion alternatives for the Rocky Mountain Statetransmission expansion alternatives for the Rocky Mountain States and for the West. s and for the West. RMATS assumed the benefits of a regionally operated system that RMATS assumed the benefits of a regionally operated system that avoids rate avoids rate pancaking, consolidates control areas, and removed other institupancaking, consolidates control areas, and removed other institutional impediments tional impediments to fuller use of the existing system.to fuller use of the existing system.

1.1. evaluated overall economics of transmission expansion under diffevaluated overall economics of transmission expansion under different generation scenarios. erent generation scenarios. 2.2. identified transmission projects that may be economic and feasibidentified transmission projects that may be economic and feasible because of the savings le because of the savings

they provide Rocky Mountain region and elsewhere in the West. they provide Rocky Mountain region and elsewhere in the West.

ConclusionConclusionRMATS ran many alternative simulations, which evaluated additionRMATS ran many alternative simulations, which evaluated additional Powder River al Powder River Basin coal and open range wind generation without additional traBasin coal and open range wind generation without additional transmission in the nsmission in the region. region.

1010

RMATS’RMATS’ Recommendation 1Recommendation 1ServingServing 3900 MW3900 MW of of Incremental Loads in Rocky Mountain Area, Year 2013Incremental Loads in Rocky Mountain Area, Year 2013

Antelope Mine

Dave Johnston

LRS

Cheyenne Tap

Ault

Green Valley

MinersJim Bridger

NaughtonBen Lomond

Midpoint

Broadview

Colstrip

Added Series Compensation Only

Taft

Montana Upgrades

Bridger Expansion

New WY- CO lines

Treasureton

Garrison

Townsend

Borah West

Path C

West of Naughton

West of Bridger

Black Hills to C. Wyoming

C Wyoming to LRS

TOT 3

TOT 7

TOT 4A

West of Colstrip

West of Broadview

Montana to NW

500 Wind

210 Gas 500 Coal

500 Wind

1150 Wind

700 Coal

359 Coal

50 Wind

250 Coal

280 Wind

125 Wind

575 Coal

100 Wind

575 Coal

140 Gas

250 Wind

Added 345 kV Line

Modified Interface

Added Resource

Bridger ELow Hanging Fruits:

•Amps Phase Shifter•Flaming Gorge Trans

•IPP DC increased capacity•TOT 3

1111

RMATS’RMATS’ Recommendation 2Recommendation 2Serving Area Loads + 3900 MW for ExportServing Area Loads + 3900 MW for Export

1540 Coal

210 Gas

800 Wind

260 Gas

500 Wind

200 Wind

575 Coal

140 Gas

120 Wind

1400 Coal

50 Gas

575 Coal

160 Wind 1000 Wind

250 Wind

500 Coal

950 Wind

609 Coal

100 Wind

500 Wind

250

Wind

950 Coal

125 Wind

Tesla

Table Mtn.

Grizzly

Ashe

Bell

Taft

Missoula

Great Falls

Broadview

RinglingColstrip

Ant MineDave Johnson

LRS

Cheyenne Tap

Ault

Green Valley

Miners

Jim Bridger

Naughton

Grand JunctionEmery

MonaIPP

Red Butte

Ben Lomond

Borah

KinportMidpoint

Crystal

Market Place

500 kV

345 kV

Adelanto

Option 1

Option 2

Option 4

Option 3Added Phase Shifter

Noxon

Hot Springs

This recommendation requires two 500 kV lines

for export

Inc. DC

Options 2-4

Option 1 Only

Consistent with Rec 1

1212

(RMATS)(RMATS)

June 12, 2008 3:00pm$4 Gas

NELWAY

BRIDGER

COLSTRIP

GOSHEN

BORAH

KINPORT

MIDPOINT

SUMMERLAKE

MALIN

CAPTJACK

MERIDIAN

ALVEY

ALLSTON

KEELER

PEARL

ROUNDMT

OLINDA

JOHN DAY

MARION

LANE

GRIZZLY

BUCKLEY

THEDALLES

OSTRANDER SLATT

McNARY(1169 MW)

BOARDMAN

PAUL /CENTRALIA

RAVER

MONROE

CUSTER

ECHOLAKE

CHIEFJOE GRAND COULEE

SCHULTZ

HANFORD

ASHE

VANTAGE

LOWMON

LITGOOSE

LOWGRANITE

TAFT

GARRISON

DWORSHAK

TOWNSENDBROADVIEW

BELL

DIXONVILLE

BENLOMOND

NAUGHTON

ANACONDA

ATLANTICCITY

ROCKSPRINGS

MONUMENT

MUSTANG

SPENCE

BILLINGS

YELLOWTAIL

CUSTER

GREATFALLS

OVANDO

HOTSPRINGS

CABGORGE

NOXON

LOLO

HELLSCANYON

ROUNDUP

OXBOW

BROWNLEE

BOISE

ENTERPRISE

WALLAWALLA

LAGRANDE

HATWAI

MOSCOW

BENEWAH

RIVERTON

BUFFALO

OREGONBASIN

THERMOPOLIS

WYODAK

CASPER

SHERIDAN

PLATTE

DAVE JOHNSTON

MILES CITYDC TIE

GRANTSPASS

COPCO

LONEPINE

ROSS

ONTARIO

CALDWELLBURNS

WANETA

BOUNDARY

VACA-DIXON

TRACY

TESLA

TABLEMT

LOSBANOS

MOSSLANDING

TERMINAL

MONA

FOUR CORNERS

90SOUTH

CAMPWILLIAMS

BONANZA

HUNTINGTON

SIGURD

IPPGONDER

HARRYALLEN

MACHACEKFTCHURCHILL

AUSTIN

PAVANT

HUNTER

SYLMAR

ADELANTO

GLENCANYON

VALMY(562 MW)

HUMBOLDT

TRACY

VALLEYROAD

CROSS-OVER

AMPS

JEFFERSON

DILLONPETERSONFLATS

DRUM

WEEDJCT

CASCADE

RESTON

OLYMPIA

INGLEDOW

ROCKYREACH

MIDWAY

LIBBY

HUNGRY HORSE

CRAIG

SAN JUAN

HAYDEN

LARAMIERIVER

ARCHER

AULT

RIFLE

MONTROSE

PINTO

CURECANTI PONCHA

SIDNEY

STORY

L E G E N D:

500KV

+-500KVDC

345KV230KV115-161KV

LANGE

WESTHILL

STEGAL

COMANCHEMIDWAY

DANIELS PARKMALTA

SMOKY HILL

PAWNEE(530 MW)

VALMONT

DILLON

BEAVER

WARNERHILL TOP

BORDERTOWN

REDBUTTE

FLAMINGGORGE

TREASURETON

K-FALLSCO GEN

BOYLE

NLEWISTON

DIABLO

GATES

MIDWAY

RINALDI

VINCENT

VICTORVILLE

LUGO

MIRALOMASERRANO

VALLEY

DEVERS

MIGUEL IMPERIALVALLEY

MOJAVE

EL DORADO

MCCULLOUGHMEAD

MARKETPLACE

NAVAJO

MOENKOPI

YAVAPAI

TABLE MESA

PALO VERDE

WESTWING

FLAGSTAFF

PINNACLE PEAK

CHOLLA

NORTH GILA LIBERTY

KYRENE SILVERKING

CORONADO

SOUTH

BICKNELL VAIL

GREENLEE

SPRINGERVILLE

SAGUARO

TORTOLITA

PARKER

PRESCOTT

ROUNDVALLEY

SELIGMANDAVIS

CAMINO

EAGLEMT.

BLYTHE

KNOB

GILATIJUANA

METROPOLIJUAREZ

LOMAS

CIPRES

LAROSITA

SAN LUIS

MEXICALI

INTERGENSEMPRA

MERIDIAN

CHEEKYE

MALASPINA

DUNSMUIR

SAHTLAM

GOLD RIVER

ARNOTT

CLAYBURNROSEDALE

WHALEACH

BRIDGERIVER

NICOLA

KELLYLAKE

100 MILEHOUSE

SODACREEK

BARLOW

WILLISTON

GLENANNAN

TELKWA

SKEENA

PRINCE RUPERT

KITMAT

KEMANO

SAVONA

MICA

REVELSTOKE

ASHTONCREEK

SELKIRK CRANBROOK

INVERMERE

NATAL

PEIGAN N. LETHBRIDGE

LANGDON

JANETSARCEE

REDDEER

BENALTO

BRAZEAU

BICKERDIKE KEEPHILLSELLERSLIE

W. BROOKS

WAREJTN. JENNER

EMPRESS

SHEERNESS

EAST EDMONTONCLOVERBAR

LAMOUREUX

DEERLAND

WHITEFISHLAKE

MARGUERITELAKE

RUTH LAKE

MITSUE

N. CALDER

N. BARRHEAD

LITTLESMOKY

LOUISECREEK

SAGITAWAH

WABAMUNSUNDANCE

MCKINLEY

P.E.G.S.AMBROSIA WEST

MESA

B-A

NORTON

OJO

TAOS

BLACKWATER

ARTESIAAMRAD

CALIENTENEWMAN

ARROYO

DIABLO

LUNA

HIDALGO

LEUPP

EL CENTRO

KENNEDY

PEACE CANYON

PEACE RIVER

BATTLE RIVER

METISKOW

LEUPP

ELCENTRO

KDY 5CX3

PCN500

GMS500

BAT RV79

METIS644

LEUPP

ELCENTRO

KDY 5CX3

PCN500

GMS500

BAT RV79

METIS644

N-S Congestion

LMPs increase as loads pick up during the day -increasing congestion. This in turn causes gas generation to become the marginal unit in peak hours

June 12, 2008 6:00am$4 Gas

NELWAY

BRIDGER

COLSTRIP

GOSHEN

BORAH

KINPORT

MIDPOINT

SUMMERLAKE

MALIN

CAPTJACK

MERIDIAN

ALVEY

ALLSTON

KEELER

PEARL

ROUNDMT

OLINDA

JOHN DAY

MARION

LANE

GRIZZLY

BUCKLEY

THEDALLES

OSTRANDER SLATT

McNARY(1169 MW)

BOARDMAN

PAUL /CENTRALIA

RAVER

MONROE

CUSTER

ECHOLAKE

CHIEFJOE GRAND COULEE

SCHULTZ

HANFORD

ASHE

VANTAGE

LOWMON

LITGOOSE

LOWGRANITE

TAFT

GARRISON

DWORSHAK

TOWNSENDBROADVIEW

BELL

DIXONVILLE

BENLOMOND

NAUGHTON

ANACONDA

ATLANTICCITY

ROCKSPRINGS

MONUMENT

MUSTANG

SPENCE

BILLINGS

YELLOWTAIL

CUSTER

GREATFALLS

OVANDO

HOTSPRINGS

CABGORGE

NOXON

LOLO

HELLSCANYON

ROUNDUP

OXBOW

BROWNLEE

BOISE

ENTERPRISE

WALLAWALLA

LAGRANDE

HATWAI

MOSCOW

BENEWAH

RIVERTON

BUFFALO

OREGONBASIN

THERMOPOLIS

WYODAK

CASPER

SHERIDAN

PLATTE

DAVE JOHNSTON

MILES CITYDC TIE

GRANTSPASS

COPCO

LONEPINE

ROSS

ONTARIO

CALDWELLBURNS

WANETA

BOUNDARY

VACA-DIXON

TRACY

TESLA

TABLEMT

LOSBANOS

MOSSLANDING

TERMINAL

MONA

FOUR CORNERS

90SOUTH

CAMPWILLIAMS

BONANZA

HUNTINGTON

SIGURD

IPP

GONDER

HARRYALLEN

MACHACEKFTCHURCHILL

AUSTIN

PAVANT

HUNTER

SYLMAR

ADELANTO

GLENCANYON

VALMY(562 MW)

HUMBOLDT

TRACY

VALLEYROAD

CROSS-OVER

AMPS

JEFFERSON

DILLONPETERSONFLATS

DRUM

WEEDJCT

CASCADE

RESTON

OLYMPIA

INGLEDOW

ROCKYREACH

MIDWAY

LIBBY

HUNGRY HORSE

CRAIG

SAN JUAN

HAYDEN

LARAMIERIVER

ARCHER

AULT

RIFLE

MONTROSE

PINTO

CURECANTI PONCHA

SIDNEY

STORY

L E G E N D:

500KV

+-500KVDC

345KV230KV115-161KV

LANGE

WESTHILL

STEGAL

COMANCHEMIDWAY

DANIELS PARKMALTA

SMOKY HILL

PAWNEE(530 MW)

VALMONT

DILLON

BEAVER

WARNERHILL TOP

BORDERTOWN

REDBUTTE

FLAMINGGORGE

TREASURETON

K-FALLSCO GEN

BOYLE

NLEWISTON

DIABLO

GATES

MIDWAY

RINALDI

VINCENT

VICTORVILLE

LUGO

MIRALOMASERRANO

VALLEY

DEVERS

MIGUEL IMPERIALVALLEY

MOJAVE

EL DORADO

MCCULLOUGHMEAD

MARKETPLACE

NAVAJO

MOENKOPI

YAVAPAI

TABLE MESA

PALO VERDE

WESTWING

FLAGSTAFF

PINNACLE PEAK

CHOLLA

NORTH GILA LIBERTY

KYRENE SILVERKING

CORONADO

SOUTH

BICKNELL VAIL

GREENLEE

SPRINGERVILLE

SAGUARO

TORTOLITA

PARKER

PRESCOTT

ROUNDVALLEY

SELIGMANDAVIS

CAMINO

EAGLEMT.

BLYTHE

KNOB

GILATIJUANA

METROPOLIJUAREZ

LOMAS

CIPRES

LAROSITA

SAN LUIS

MEXICALI

INTERGENSEMPRA

MERIDIAN

CHEEKYE

MALASPINA

DUNSMUIR

SAHTLAM

GOLD RIVER

ARNOTT

CLAYBURNROSEDALE

WHALEACH

BRIDGERIVER

NICOLA

KELLYLAKE

100 MILEHOUSE

SODACREEK

BARLOW

WILLISTON

GLENANNAN

TELKWA

SKEENA

PRINCE RUPERT

KITMAT

KEMANO

SAVONA

MICA

REVELSTOKE

ASHTONCREEK

SELKIRK CRANBROOK

INVERMERE

NATAL

PEIGAN N. LETHBRIDGE

LANGDON

JANETSARCEE

REDDEER

BENALTO

BRAZEAU

BICKERDIKE KEEPHILLSELLERSLIE

W. BROOKS

WAREJTN. JENNER

EMPRESS

SHEERNESS

EAST EDMONTONCLOVERBAR

LAMOUREUX

DEERLAND

WHITEFISHLAKE

MARGUERITELAKE

RUTH LAKE

MITSUE

N. CALDER

N. BARRHEAD

LITTLESMOKY

LOUISECREEK

SAGITAWAH

WABAMUNSUNDANCE

MCKINLEY

P.E.G.S.AMBROSIA WEST

MESA

B-A

NORTON

OJO

TAOS

BLACKWATER

ARTESIAAMRAD

CALIENTENEWMAN

ARROYO

DIABLO

LUNA

HIDALGO

LEUPP

EL CENTRO

KENNEDY

PEACE CANYON

PEACE RIVER

BATTLE RIVER

METISKOW

LEUPP

ELCENTRO

KDY 5CX3

PCN500

GMS500

BAT RV79

METIS644

LEUPP

ELCENTRO

KDY 5CX3

PCN500

GMS500

BAT RV79

METIS644

N-S Congestion

1313

Western Interconnection Production CostsWestern Interconnection Production CostsVariable Operating and Maintenance cost in millions of dollarsVariable Operating and Maintenance cost in millions of dollars( )

$23,118

$22,143

$21,862

$20,454

$21,018

$20,046

$19,780

$18,458

$16,783

$16,121

$15,923

$14,988

$14,000 $16,000 $18,000 $20,000 $22,000 $24,000

All-Gas Reference Case

IRP- Based Reference Case

Recommendation 1

Recommendation 2

$ Millions

$6.50 gas- low hydro $6.50 gas- medium hydro $4.50 gas- medium hydro

1414

Reference Reference Summary of StudiesSummary of Studies

1515

WGA WGA Conceptual Plans for Electricity Transmission in the West Conceptual Plans for Electricity Transmission in the West

August 2001August 2001PurposePurpose

Western Governors requested a study to address the need for tranWestern Governors requested a study to address the need for transmission smission enhancements in the Western Interconnection. enhancements in the Western Interconnection. The focus of the study was on transmission to support alternativThe focus of the study was on transmission to support alternative generation e generation futures. futures. (This effort was the first pro(This effort was the first pro--active, stakeholderactive, stakeholder--driven study of driven study of interconnectioninterconnection--wide transmission needs.)wide transmission needs.)

MethodMethodThe study used a production cost model (ABB) to evaluate the demThe study used a production cost model (ABB) to evaluate the demand for and for new transmission under two basic scenarios new transmission under two basic scenarios ––

1.1. gasgas--fired generation near load centers fired generation near load centers 2.2. “other“other--thanthan--gas” scenario that assumed new coal, wind, hydro and geothermal gas” scenario that assumed new coal, wind, hydro and geothermal generation generation

located in remote areas located in remote areas Transmission was added in each scenario to equalize LMPs. Transmission was added in each scenario to equalize LMPs. The capital cost of transmission additions and interconnectionThe capital cost of transmission additions and interconnection--wide operating wide operating costs were estimated for the scenarios. costs were estimated for the scenarios.

ConclusionConclusionThe results illustrated bookends of potential transmission needsThe results illustrated bookends of potential transmission needs in the in the Western Interconnection under widely different generation scenarWestern Interconnection under widely different generation scenarios. ios. The gasThe gas--fired generation scenario did not require significant new fired generation scenario did not require significant new transmission. At $5.40/mmBTu gas, scenario 2 yielded $5.4 billitransmission. At $5.40/mmBTu gas, scenario 2 yielded $5.4 billion (2010$) on (2010$) annual savingsannual savingsThe study suggested improvements in future modeling analysis. The study suggested improvements in future modeling analysis.

1616

SSGSSG--WI 2003 StudiesWI 2003 StudiesFramework for Expansion of the WI Transmission SystemFramework for Expansion of the WI Transmission System

PurposePurposeTo provides transmission owners, users of the transmission systeTo provides transmission owners, users of the transmission system and state entities, m and state entities, insight into potential areas of transmission congestion, based uinsight into potential areas of transmission congestion, based upon a onepon a one--utility least cost utility least cost use of the regions resources. use of the regions resources.

MethodMethodBecause of the uncertainty in resource development, the 2013 stuBecause of the uncertainty in resource development, the 2013 studies modeled three dies modeled three resource development scenarios, each stressing development of a resource development scenarios, each stressing development of a particular resource type; particular resource type; namely: 1) gas, 2) coal and 3) renewables. namely: 1) gas, 2) coal and 3) renewables. Studies were run with transmission paths modeled both with and wStudies were run with transmission paths modeled both with and without transfer capability ithout transfer capability limits to determine how much power would flow on the path if patlimits to determine how much power would flow on the path if path flow was not limited by h flow was not limited by path capacity. path capacity. Transmission shadow prices were calculated to give one indicatioTransmission shadow prices were calculated to give one indication of the westn of the west--wide wide economic benefit of increasing path capacity. economic benefit of increasing path capacity. LMPs were calculated to identify the cost impact on generators aLMPs were calculated to identify the cost impact on generators and loads of transmission nd loads of transmission constraints resulting in localized areas of resource surplus andconstraints resulting in localized areas of resource surplus and deficit.deficit.

ConclusionConclusionThe areas of observed congestion in 2008 were: TOT3, Arizona to The areas of observed congestion in 2008 were: TOT3, Arizona to California, Alberta to California, Alberta to British Columbia, southern New Mexico area and Southern CalifornBritish Columbia, southern New Mexico area and Southern California to Mexico ia to Mexico In the 2013 case, transmission was added to relieve congestion iIn the 2013 case, transmission was added to relieve congestion in all three scenarios n all three scenarios between Alberta to BC to the Northwest, between Arizona and Calibetween Alberta to BC to the Northwest, between Arizona and California, into San Diego fornia, into San Diego area, into Puget Sound area and between Colorado and Utah. area, into Puget Sound area and between Colorado and Utah. Additional integrating transmission was required for both the coAdditional integrating transmission was required for both the coal and renewable scenarios. al and renewable scenarios. The coal scenario required the most transmission additions, follThe coal scenario required the most transmission additions, followed by the renewable owed by the renewable scenario and then the gas scenario. scenario and then the gas scenario.

1717

NTAC StudiesNTAC StudiesCanada to CaliforniaCanada to California

20062006

PurposePurposeTo provide highTo provide high--level information on the feasibility of potential transmission level information on the feasibility of potential transmission projects to transfer a variety of new resources out of Canada inprojects to transfer a variety of new resources out of Canada into the Northwest to the Northwest and California. and California. (The study was intended to be modular in nature, i.e. additiona(The study was intended to be modular in nature, i.e. additional l options could be developed from the information provided.)options could be developed from the information provided.) 20 transmission 20 transmission options were studiedoptions were studied. .

MethodMethodProposed AC transmission options were tested at an incremental 1Proposed AC transmission options were tested at an incremental 1500 MW 500 MW capacity and verified by powerflow analysis along with estimatedcapacity and verified by powerflow analysis along with estimated construction construction costs. costs. DC options up to 3000 MW were evaluated economically. DC options up to 3000 MW were evaluated economically. The analysis included proposing routes, verifying transfer capabThe analysis included proposing routes, verifying transfer capability and ility and developing cost estimates for each option. developing cost estimates for each option. All options were compared using delivered cost of energy. All options were compared using delivered cost of energy.

ConclusionConclusionThere are many congested paths in the West. This study group usThere are many congested paths in the West. This study group used its ed its judgment to identify congested paths and upgrades to relieve thajudgment to identify congested paths and upgrades to relieve that congestion so t congestion so that new remote resources could get to the load. that new remote resources could get to the load.

1818

Colorado Long Range Transmission Planning StudyColorado Long Range Transmission Planning Study

April 27, 2004April 27, 2004

PurposePurposeTo identify transmission needs for a 10To identify transmission needs for a 10--year horizon ( 2004 through 2014) year horizon ( 2004 through 2014) integrating resources identified from the PSCo Least Cost Resourintegrating resources identified from the PSCo Least Cost Resource Plan ce Plan Request for Proposals and other queued resource requests for theRequest for Proposals and other queued resource requests for the subsub--regional regional utilities in the Wyoming/Colorado areautilities in the Wyoming/Colorado area. .

MethodMethodStudies were reliabilityStudies were reliability--based analysis (powerflow and stability)based analysis (powerflow and stability).. Modeled three Modeled three separate resource scenarios and associated transmission additionseparate resource scenarios and associated transmission additions and tested s and tested against the load projections of 2700 MW by 2014. Resource scenaagainst the load projections of 2700 MW by 2014. Resource scenarios included: rios included:

1.1. Heavy additions in NE ColoradoHeavy additions in NE Colorado2.2. Heavy additions in SE ColoradoHeavy additions in SE Colorado3.3. Balanced additions between NE and SE Colorado Balanced additions between NE and SE Colorado

ConclusionConclusionTransmission additions for scenarios 1 and 2 included:Transmission additions for scenarios 1 and 2 included:

1.1. New transmission between Ft. Morgan, Colorado and Ft. Lupton/NE New transmission between Ft. Morgan, Colorado and Ft. Lupton/NE Denver metro Denver metro areaarea

2.2. New transmission between Lamar, Colorado and Limon/Colorado SpriNew transmission between Lamar, Colorado and Limon/Colorado Spring/SE Denver ng/SE Denver metro areametro area

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Nevada State Office of EnergyNevada State Office of Energy

May 10, 2005May 10, 2005

PurposePurposeStudy objective was to complete an integrated assessment of the Study objective was to complete an integrated assessment of the wind energy wind energy potential in Nevada and southern Idaho.potential in Nevada and southern Idaho.Evaluate transmission alternatives to support wind energy develoEvaluate transmission alternatives to support wind energy development in pment in Nevada, Idaho and neighboring statesNevada, Idaho and neighboring states. .

MethodMethodTransmission planners from SPPC and NPC studied the interconnectTransmission planners from SPPC and NPC studied the interconnection of wind ion of wind generation from proposed sites assuming specific upgrades to thegeneration from proposed sites assuming specific upgrades to the system. This system. This analysis included load flow contingency analysis, stability studanalysis included load flow contingency analysis, stability studies, and fault duty ies, and fault duty analyses. analyses. The assessment of Nevada wind resources was based on DOE/NREL WiThe assessment of Nevada wind resources was based on DOE/NREL Wind nd Power map of Nevada and collaboration with the Desert Research IPower map of Nevada and collaboration with the Desert Research Institute.nstitute.Idaho wind resources were analyzed by the Idaho Energy Division Idaho wind resources were analyzed by the Idaho Energy Division using the using the True Wind/Northwest Sustainable Energy for Economic Development True Wind/Northwest Sustainable Energy for Economic Development (NWSEED) wind map. (NWSEED) wind map.

ConclusionConclusionCongestion is implicit in the analysis since wind energy generatCongestion is implicit in the analysis since wind energy generation could not be ion could not be delivered by the current electrical system. delivered by the current electrical system.

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Montana Montana -- Northwest Transmission Northwest Transmission Equal Angle StudyEqual Angle Study

October 12, 2005PurposePurpose

The purpose of the study was to determine infrastructure upgradeThe purpose of the study was to determine infrastructure upgrades and associated s and associated costs for an approximate increase of 750 MW firm capacity betweecosts for an approximate increase of 750 MW firm capacity between eastern Montana n eastern Montana and western Washington/Oregon. and western Washington/Oregon. The study was initiated under the Northwest Transmission AssessmThe study was initiated under the Northwest Transmission Assessment Committee ent Committee for the purpose of providing potential resource developers and bfor the purpose of providing potential resource developers and buyers with initial uyers with initial capacity gains and expected costing information for an upgrade ocapacity gains and expected costing information for an upgrade of the transmission f the transmission system capacity. system capacity.

MethodMethodThe method used in the study to measure the effect of the systemThe method used in the study to measure the effect of the system additions was to additions was to keep the existing power angle the same after the addition of newkeep the existing power angle the same after the addition of new generation. generation.

ConclusionConclusionThe firm capacity between Montana and the Pacific Northwest is eThe firm capacity between Montana and the Pacific Northwest is essentially already ssentially already committed to firm contract rights holders. If new resources are committed to firm contract rights holders. If new resources are to receive firm to receive firm transmission, additional capacity will be needed. transmission, additional capacity will be needed. Increase transfer capacity between Montana and the Pacific NorthIncrease transfer capacity between Montana and the Pacific Northwest coast, net west coast, net 750 MW capacity across West of Broadview, West of Garrison, West750 MW capacity across West of Broadview, West of Garrison, West of Hatwai, North of Hatwai, North Cross Cascades and South Cross Cascades paths. Cross Cascades and South Cross Cascades paths. The new facilities are primarily series capacitor upgrades and sThe new facilities are primarily series capacitor upgrades and some new 230 kV and ome new 230 kV and 500 kV line work in Washington and Oregon.500 kV line work in Washington and Oregon.

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West of Hatwai System Upgrade StudyWest of Hatwai System Upgrade StudyFebruary 28, 2005

PurposePurposeThe purpose of the study was to evaluate transmission constrainThe purpose of the study was to evaluate transmission constraints and justify ts and justify upgrades to allow for increased flow from Eastern British Columbupgrades to allow for increased flow from Eastern British Columbia, and Eastern ia, and Eastern Washington Washington Increased capacity is also needed to allow for additional load sIncreased capacity is also needed to allow for additional load service to Eastern ervice to Eastern Washington. Washington. In 2001 several major industrial loads shut down creating a net In 2001 several major industrial loads shut down creating a net loss of approximately loss of approximately 1000 MW of net firm transfer capacity across the West of Hatwai 1000 MW of net firm transfer capacity across the West of Hatwai cutplane under cutplane under some operating conditionssome operating conditions. . The Bonneville Power Administration and Avista Utilities initiatThe Bonneville Power Administration and Avista Utilities initiated the study at the ed the study at the request of affected regional wholesale customersrequest of affected regional wholesale customers . .

MethodMethodLoad flow, Reactive Margin, and Stability Studies were used to aLoad flow, Reactive Margin, and Stability Studies were used to assess the capacity ssess the capacity increase under the NERC and WECC reliability criteria. increase under the NERC and WECC reliability criteria.

ConclusionConclusionInsufficient firm transfer capacity due to multiple limiting outInsufficient firm transfer capacity due to multiple limiting outages under varying ages under varying operating conditions. The limiting performance criteria would beoperating conditions. The limiting performance criteria would be system instability and system instability and thermal overloads.thermal overloads.Solution Solution -- increase the West of Hatwai east to west transfer limit to 4277increase the West of Hatwai east to west transfer limit to 4277 MW from MW from 2800 MW .2800 MW .

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Northwest Intertie Expansion StudyNorthwest Intertie Expansion Study(in progress)

PurposePurposeBC Transmission has initiated this study to estimate the trade aBC Transmission has initiated this study to estimate the trade and economic impacts nd economic impacts of a range of transmission expansion levels and transmission patof a range of transmission expansion levels and transmission paths. hs. To determine, among three possible routing options, the most suiTo determine, among three possible routing options, the most suitable, economic and table, economic and strategic transmission corridor for capacity expansion between Bstrategic transmission corridor for capacity expansion between British Columbia and ritish Columbia and Washington State to facilitate electricity trade and resource shWashington State to facilitate electricity trade and resource sharing throughout the aring throughout the Pacific Northwest region. Pacific Northwest region.

MethodMethodTransmission usage levels are forecast on each critical transmisTransmission usage levels are forecast on each critical transmission path within BC sion path within BC Transmission's service region and a variety of future regional rTransmission's service region and a variety of future regional resource and load esource and load forecast scenarios have been modeled. forecast scenarios have been modeled. The magnitude of the problem will be measured by the economic coThe magnitude of the problem will be measured by the economic cost of restricted st of restricted electricity trade flows that impact upon BCTC's service region. electricity trade flows that impact upon BCTC's service region. Economic electricity trade flows will be modeled according to prEconomic electricity trade flows will be modeled according to present trade strategies esent trade strategies using highusing high--loadload--hour and lowhour and low--lowlow--hour price differentials and seasonal price hour price differentials and seasonal price differentials at the Middifferentials at the Mid--Columbia and CaliforniaColumbia and California--Oregon Border trading hubs.Oregon Border trading hubs.Congestion will be measured by the difference between "ideal" anCongestion will be measured by the difference between "ideal" and actual economic d actual economic trade flowstrade flows. .

ConclusionConclusionPending.Pending.

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WECC Coordinated Phase Shifter Operation StudyWECC Coordinated Phase Shifter Operation Study2001 to 2005

PurposePurposePurpose of the study was to review and summarize operating experPurpose of the study was to review and summarize operating experience with the ience with the coordinated phase shifter operation under the Unscheduled Flow (coordinated phase shifter operation under the Unscheduled Flow (USF) program, for USF) program, for use in identifying constraints areas within the Western Interconuse in identifying constraints areas within the Western Interconnection. nection.

The USF program for coordinated operation of phase shifters was The USF program for coordinated operation of phase shifters was initiated 11 years initiated 11 years ago as a means to control unscheduled flow within the western inago as a means to control unscheduled flow within the western interconnected terconnected system. system.

MethodMethodAnalyze Hours for which coordinated operation of phase shifters Analyze Hours for which coordinated operation of phase shifters was called upon to was called upon to relieve overloads due to unscheduled flow. relieve overloads due to unscheduled flow. Report the number of hours when schedule curtailments were requReport the number of hours when schedule curtailments were required to relieve ired to relieve overloads because phase shifters were no longer effective in redoverloads because phase shifters were no longer effective in reducing path flows ucing path flows below path limits. below path limits.

ConclusionConclusionPaths must qualify to participate in the program, based upon thePaths must qualify to participate in the program, based upon the number of number of curtailment hours experienced. Those paths that are currently qcurtailment hours experienced. Those paths that are currently qualified are:ualified are:

Path 15 Path 15 -- Midway Midway -- Los Banos (California)Los Banos (California)Path 20 Path 20 -- Path C (Idaho to Utah)Path C (Idaho to Utah)Path 21 Path 21 -- AZ to CaliforniaAZ to CaliforniaPath 22 Path 22 -- SW of 4 Corners (NE Arizona)SW of 4 Corners (NE Arizona)Path 23 Path 23 -- 4 Corners Transformer (NE Arizona)4 Corners Transformer (NE Arizona)Path 30 Path 30 -- TOT 1A (Colorado to Utah)TOT 1A (Colorado to Utah)Path 31 Path 31 -- TOT 2A (Colorado to New Mexico)TOT 2A (Colorado to New Mexico)Path 36 Path 36 -- TOT 3 (Wyoming to Colorado)TOT 3 (Wyoming to Colorado)Path 66 Path 66 -- COI (NW to California) .COI (NW to California) .

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SSGSSG--WI 2005 StudiesWI 2005 StudiesFebruary, 2006

PurposePurposeThe planning program was intended to accomplish two goals:The planning program was intended to accomplish two goals:

1.1. To update and expand a Western InterconnectionTo update and expand a Western Interconnection--wide generating resource, wide generating resource, transmission, load and fuel price database, using public ally avtransmission, load and fuel price database, using public ally available information.ailable information.

2.2. To establish a reference case to be used as a basis for comparinTo establish a reference case to be used as a basis for comparing the economics of g the economics of scenarios.scenarios.

MethodMethodThe study program updated the database using the ABB GridView pThe study program updated the database using the ABB GridView production roduction cost model that measures the level and cost of projected congestcost model that measures the level and cost of projected congestion, indicated by ion, indicated by hourly LMPs, line loadings, and shadow prices hourly LMPs, line loadings, and shadow prices (the reduction in production cost (the reduction in production cost associated with relaxing a constraint by 1 MW). associated with relaxing a constraint by 1 MW). Developed the 2015 IRPDeveloped the 2015 IRP--RPS Reference case which was designed to be a RPS Reference case which was designed to be a benchmark study, it also took into account the capital carrying benchmark study, it also took into account the capital carrying cost associated with cost associated with the new generation resources and new transmission facilities forthe new generation resources and new transmission facilities forecasted to be put ecasted to be put in service between the 2008 Base Case year and the 2015 study yein service between the 2008 Base Case year and the 2015 study year.ar.

ConclusionConclusionNo specific projects were identified in the SSGNo specific projects were identified in the SSG--WI 2005 study program. WI 2005 study program. The database and cases were developed to be used:The database and cases were developed to be used:

1.1. As baseline to study future scenarios at the regional and subAs baseline to study future scenarios at the regional and sub--regional levelsregional levels2.2. To evaluate specific project proposalsTo evaluate specific project proposals

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SSGSSG--WI 2005 StudiesWI 2005 Studies

CongestionCongestionThe study viewed congestion in two ways: The study viewed congestion in two ways:

1.1. PhysicallyPhysically--identified congestion, which was revealed by observing path flowidentified congestion, which was revealed by observing path flow results in results in the study as compared to historical path flows, the study as compared to historical path flows,

2.2. Congestion costs. Participants decided to use two methods for dCongestion costs. Participants decided to use two methods for determining congestion etermining congestion cost in order to isolate the most congested paths in the West. cost in order to isolate the most congested paths in the West. The group tested the The group tested the sensitivity of congestion cost rankings to changes in natural gasensitivity of congestion cost rankings to changes in natural gas prices. s prices.

Method I:Method I: Method I ranks the paths based on congestion cost. The congesMethod I ranks the paths based on congestion cost. The congestion tion costcost for each congested path is defined as the hourly shadow price fofor each congested path is defined as the hourly shadow price for each r each congested hour multiplied by the flow on the path for that hour,congested hour multiplied by the flow on the path for that hour, with the results with the results summed for the year. The shadow price is the production cost desummed for the year. The shadow price is the production cost decrease if 1 MW crease if 1 MW limit of the constraint is relaxed. limit of the constraint is relaxed. Method II:Method II: Method II ranks the paths based on the Annual Average ShadowMethod II ranks the paths based on the Annual Average ShadowPrice alone. Price alone.

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SSGSSG--WI 2005 StudiesWI 2005 StudiesMethod I:Method I: Method I ranks the paths based on congestion cost. The congesMethod I ranks the paths based on congestion cost. The congestion costtion cost for each for each congested path is defined as the hourly shadow price for each cocongested path is defined as the hourly shadow price for each congested hour multiplied by the flow on ngested hour multiplied by the flow on the path for that hour, with the results summed for the year. Tthe path for that hour, with the results summed for the year. The shadow price is the production cost he shadow price is the production cost decrease if 1 MW limit of the constraint is relaxed. decrease if 1 MW limit of the constraint is relaxed. Method II:Method II: Method II ranks the paths based on the Annual Average ShadowMethod II ranks the paths based on the Annual Average Shadow Price alone. Price alone.

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Clean and Diversified Energy InitiativeClean and Diversified Energy InitiativeApril 30, 2006

PurposePurposeThe Western Governors adopted the goals of adding 30,00 MW of clThe Western Governors adopted the goals of adding 30,00 MW of clean ean and diversified energy and attaining 20% energy efficiency in thand diversified energy and attaining 20% energy efficiency in the 18 state e 18 state region of the Western Governors' Association (WGA). The Clean aregion of the Western Governors' Association (WGA). The Clean and nd Diversified Energy Advisory Committee (CDEAC) and numerous task Diversified Energy Advisory Committee (CDEAC) and numerous task forces forces were created to develop recommendations to attain the Governors'were created to develop recommendations to attain the Governors' goals. goals.

MethodMethodThis study sought to analyze the transmission to support three bThis study sought to analyze the transmission to support three bookend ookend generation scenarios for 2015, using economic screening analysisgeneration scenarios for 2015, using economic screening analysis that that compares costs of the three scenarios relative to the SSGcompares costs of the three scenarios relative to the SSG--WI 2015 WI 2015 Reference Case.Reference Case. Scenarios:Scenarios:

1.1. High Efficiency High Efficiency 2.2. High Renewables High Renewables 3.3. High CoalHigh Coal

ConclusionConclusionThe High Efficiency Case postulated reduced loads and enabled thThe High Efficiency Case postulated reduced loads and enabled the system e system to operate without adding new transmission lines beyond the SSGto operate without adding new transmission lines beyond the SSG--WI 2015 WI 2015 Reference Case. Reference Case.