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Suggesting a scheme to construct an integrated assessment system of flood control measures
Establishment of a scheme to select optimum economic flood control measures
Construction of an assessment system applicable for members of the typhoon committee
Constructing reasonable and integrated assessment system of flood control measures
Investigation of domestic and foreign flood control assessment system and establishment of plans
D/B, module, andSystem, Damage Estimation and Economic moduleconstruction
Flood control assessment
system
2008
2009
2010
2011
Module design of the system andmodule D/B design
Present status analysisand establishment of plans
Present status analysisand establishment of plans
Requirements analysis of users and analysis
of structural measures
Requirements analysis of users and analysis
of structural measures
System, Inside module construction
System, Inside module construction
Maintenance and utilization
Maintenance and utilization
Framing the plans for maintenance and utilization
Framing the plans for maintenance and utilization
1. Estimation flood discharge
2. Estimation flood stage at the watch point(channel routing)
3. Bank height > flood stage ?
7. Inundation
8. Estimation of the flood area & depth in the protected lowland
9. Estimation of the potential flood damage(Multi-dimensional flood damage analysis)
10. Repetition of the 1~9 procedures with each flood control measures
11. Selection of the optimal measure
4. No Inundation
5. Protected lowland flooding?
6. Potential flood damage=0
Yes
Yes
No
Classification for Local characteristicClassification for Local characteristic
Class Criterion of applicaton Application
Big city City over millions Seoul and 5 metropolitan cities
Midium size city
City under millions GyeongGi province etc
Small city Developed city from farming area Jeju province
Farming area
Area over 500 per/km^2 populaton density
Mountain area
Other area except farming area
Human life damage in flood damage occurrenceHuman life damage in flood damage occurrence
Class(per/ha)
Big cityMidium size city
Small cityFarming
areaMountain
area
Death 0.004 0.004 0.001 0.002 0.002Injury 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.002
Economic index research by the administrative districtEconomic index research by the administrative district
Dist.(Million)
2005 2006 2007 2008
Seoul 20.87 21.97 23.59 24.48
Pusan 13.40 13.91 14.94 16.12
Daegu 11.47 12.18 13.06 13.59
Inchun 15.67 16.68 18.29 18.27
Gwangju 13.09 14.07 14.73 15.52
Daejun 13.64 14.09 14.92 15.81
Ulsan 38.97 40.22 44.51 48.62
Gyeonggi 15.95 16.71 17.54 17.76
Gangwon 15.46 16.31 17.67 18.10
Chungbuk 18.00 18.86 20.22 20.30
Chungnam 24.76 26.64 28.48 29.96
Joenbuk 13.88 14.74 16.14 16.88
Jeonnam 23.12 23.06 26.03 29.59
Gyeongbuk 23.29 23.66 24.28 26.16
Gyeongnam 18.74 19.81 22.13 23.93
Jeju 14.71 14.90 16.04 16.42
Local GDP research
- Analysis results are not correct to use only population for classification index
- Comprehensive indexes are population density and per GDP
Population density
Per GDP
The spread of population & life expectancy investigation by administrative districtThe spread of population & life expectancy investigation by administrative district Use for casualty loss amount estimation
Dist.Average age Population
Life exp.Man Woman Ave. Man Woman
Seoul 34.6 36.3 35.5 4,837,112 4,925,434 45.8
Pusan 35.5 38.0 36.7 1,735,860 1,776,687 42.1
Daegu 33.8 36.5 35.2 1,227,168 1,228,848 44.3
Inchun 33.4 35.1 34.2 1,262,612 1,255,068 45.3
Gwangju 32.3 34.3 33.3 701,265 712,379 46.5
Daejun 32.8 34.7 33.8 720,734 717,817 46.5
Ulsan 32.2 34.1 33.1 538,031 506,903 45.6
Gyeonggi 33.0 34.6 33.8 5,192,007 5,148,999 46.3
Gangwon 36.3 39.3 37.8 733,266 727,504 41.4
Chungbuk 35.2 38.2 36.7 730,084 723,788 42.5
Chungnam 36.3 39.4 37.8 945,540 933,877 41.8
Joenbuk 36.2 39.8 38.0 874,662 904,217 41.5
Jeonnam 37.8 42.3 40.1 889,805 925,369 39.4
Gyeongbuk 36.5 40.5 38.5 1,292,673 1,302,046 40.9
Gyeongnam 34.6 38.0 36.3 1,521,110 1,519,883 42.4
Jeju 33.5 37.1 35.3 263,721 266,965 45.1
- - - 23,465,650 23,575,784
The spread of population & life expectancy investigation by administrative districtThe spread of population & life expectancy investigation by administrative district
Dist.(Million)
Death loss
Injury loss
Victim loss
Pop. density (per/㎢ )
Seoul 955.8 477.9 0.5718 16231.7
Pusan 564.1 282.1 0.3671 4612.0
Daegu 508.1 254.1 0.3142 2787.9
Inchun 709.9 354.9 0.4293 2546.6
Gwangju 608.7 304.3 0.3586 2829.8
Daejun 634.3 317.1 0.3737 2672.0
Ulsan 1777.0 888.5 1.0677 992.6
Gyeonggi 738.5 369.2 0.4370 1028.1
Gangwon 640.0 320.0 0.4236 88.2
Chungbuk 765.0 382.5 0.4932 196.5
Chungnam 1035.0 517.5 0.6784 219.7
Joenbuk 576.0 288.0 0.3803 221.5
Jeonnam 910.9 455.5 0.6334 150.7
Gyeongbuk 952.6 476.3 0.6381 137.1
Gyeongnam
794.6 397.3 0.5134 290.5
Jeju 663.4 331.7 0.4030 287.8
Estimation of Casualty loss amount
- Death + Injury+ Victim loss amount
- Death loss amount = Flooding area( ㏊ ) × Death rate of flooding area(per/ ㏊ ) × life expectancy(yr) × per GDP
- Injury loss amount = Flooding area( ㏊ ) × Injury rate of flooding area(per/ ㏊ ) × life expectancy(yr) × per GDP/ 2
- Victim loss amount = Flooding area( ㏊ ) × Victim rate of flooding area(per/ ㏊ ) × evacuation day(day) × per GDP / 365(day)
Constuction to use various digital Constuction to use various digital map from GIS basismap from GIS basis
Administrative district map
DEM(1/5,000, 1/25,000)
Land use map
- Use of satellite images- Use of satellite images
Computation through space Computation through space information compositioninformation composition
Administrative district
Space information composition
Land use×
Flooding area×
Flooding depth
Estimate probabilistic rainfall using established analysis results such as probable isohyetal charts
If it is not reliable or available, estimate the probabilistic distribution of rainfall
Rainfall estimation
To use as the input of hydrologic model to simulate flood aspects, the probabilistic rainfall needs to be timely distributed
The methods such as Huff and Yen and Chow could be applied
Time distribution
Various hydrologic models such as HEC-HMS, HEC-1, ILLUDAS, SWMM could be used to simulate streamflow using the timely distributed probabilistic rainfall
Hydrologic model should be carefully selected with the features of applied basins
Flood estimation
100-YEAR 1-HOUR RAINFALL 100-YEAR 1-HOUR RAINFALL
The procedure of estimating probabilistic precipitationThe procedure of estimating probabilistic precipitation
Meteorological data constructionMeteorological data construction
Applying probabilistic distributionApplying probabilistic distribution
Parameter estimationParameter estimation
Goodness of fit testGoodness of fit test
Selecting the optimum distributionSelecting the optimum distribution
Estimating probabilistic precipitationEstimating probabilistic precipitation
Normal, Lognormal, Gamma, Log-pearson type III, GEV, Gubel, Log-Gumbel, Weibull
Normal, Lognormal, Gamma, Log-pearson type III, GEV, Gubel, Log-Gumbel, Weibull
Maximum likelihood, Method of moments
Maximum likelihood, Method of moments
Colmogorov-Smirnov,Cramer-von-Mises,
PPCC, x2
Colmogorov-Smirnov,Cramer-von-Mises,
PPCC, x2
Time distributionTime distributionHuff,
Yen and Chow
Huff, Yen and Chow
Runoff simulation using hydrologic modelRunoff simulation using hydrologic modelUrban area Natural area
Effective rainfall
Initial loss Proper values according to pervious and impervious region
NRCS method
Infiltration Horton equation for the rate curve of infiltration capacity
Green-Ampt, NRCS
Horton equation for the rate curve of infiltration capacity
Green-Ampt, NRCS
Basin data
Basin area Estimate with Topography(GIS), etc Estimate with Topography(GIS), etc
Impervious area
Estimate separately Indirect application (When CN is estimated)
Surface runoff
Estimation method
Storage equation, Kinematic wave, etc
Clark, SCS, Snyder, Nakayasu, etc
Main parameter
Basin length and slopeSurface roughness coefficient
Arrival and delay timeStorage coefficient
Uniqueness Separating basins according to drainage system
Separating basins according to streams and main simulation points
Channel runoff
Estimation method
Kinematic waveDiffusive waveHydrodynamic method, etc
MuskingumMuskingum-CungeKinematic wave, etc
Main parameter
length and slope of Channel and sewer
Roughness coefficient, etc
Length and slope of channelRoughness coefficient Storage constant, etc
Uniqueness Pressured flow analysis for sewer full of water
Open channel analysis
Models ILLUDAS, SWMM, etc HEC-1, HEC-HMS, etc
(Ref. A guideline for the flood estimation of urban area, 2008)
Initial setupInitial setup Assets & mapsAssets & maps Flood simulationFlood simulation Damage estimationDamage estimation AnalysisAnalysis
Currency unit(₩,$,.)Area unit(m2, km2,.)Currency unit(₩,$,.)Area unit(m2, km2,.) Load basin mapLoad basin map
Set the range of asset classifications
according to map
Set the range of asset classifications
according to map
Create the tables of assets
Create the tables of assets
Input the tables or Use default values Input the tables or Use default values
Set a flood simulation method
Set a flood simulation method
Create cross
sections of floodplain
Create cross
sections of floodplain
Generate floodplain and depth grid
Generate floodplain and depth grid
Generate HEC-RAS
input
Generate HEC-RAS
input
Run HEC-RAS
Run HEC-RAS
Import simulated inundation with each
flood control
measures
Import simulated inundation with each
flood control
measures
Set the range of assets to estimate
damage
Set the range of assets to estimate
damage
Estimate the amount of loss for each flood control
measures
Estimate the amount of loss for each flood control
measures
Set an analysis method
Set an analysis method
Analyze the socio-economic values of
flood control measures
Analyze the socio-economic values of
flood control measures
Suggest the optimum measures
Suggest the optimum measures
A
B
A :Simulate flood inundation using HEC-RAS model
B : Import simulated inundation results from another model available for an applied basin
Initial setup and inputs Flood and damage estimation Socio-Economic analysis
Standards of damage loss
- Actual recovery costs- National
compensation costs
Standards of damage loss
- Actual recovery costs- National
compensation costs
Simplicity of the model with the equivalent reliability
Familiarity with used technique
Running time Types of computers Availability of data Model support and
documentation
Model selection for the floodplain simulationModel selection for the floodplain simulation
River flood simulation using HEC-RASRiver flood simulation using HEC-RAS HEC-RAS is widely used and accepted in particular for floodplain
management and flood insurance studies (Karle, 2008)
HEC-RAS in the simulation of extreme glacial outburst flood is accurate enough for general flood protection purpose (Alho et al., 2008)
When more and more cross-sections were used, the simulation result of HEC-RAS was more similar to FESWMS 2D model (Cook et al, 2008)
The HEC-RAS and TELEMAC-2D models perform equally well in predicting the inundated area when calibrated, whereas the performance of the LISFLOOD-FP model is dependent on the calibration data used (Horritt et al., 2002)
To comprise a series of discrete areas acting as storage cells for floodplain
To Extend the cross-section across the full floodplain width
Floodplain treatment in HEC-RAS (Tayefi et al., 2007)Floodplain treatment in HEC-RAS (Tayefi et al., 2007)
Total damage Total damage from flood from flood The total amount of cost to be paid to recover the socio-economic
activities to the level possible if flood did not occur Consisted of direct and potential damage
Socio-Economic Activities
TimeFlood occurrence
Total Total damagedamage
Direct damage(Primary damage)
Potential damage(Secondary damage)
Direct damage Direct damage (primary damage)(primary damage) Destroyed constructions and agricultural area, damaged facilities and
products, and injured people Recoverable Damage (RD)
- The cases of Constructions, facilities, and products that can be reconstructed or produced through paying cost
- The standard of damage estimation is the cost to reconstruct and replace the damaged stuffs
Non-Recoverable Damage (NRD)
- The cases of People, livestock, agricultural products that can not be replaced by simply paying cost
- The standard of damage estimation in this case is the amount of loss
Potential damage Potential damage (secondary damage)(secondary damage) Damage During a Recovery period (DDR)
- Costs engendered during a recovery from such cases as the interruption of production facilities, the inability of public facility, and the traffic jams caused by destroyed roads
Damage After a Recovery period (DAR)
- As the example of a production facility deprived of buyers during a recovery, some facilities could have loss for their profit even though they have fully recovered for their facilities
Additional cases of damageAdditional cases of damage Intangible damage (Grigg, 1975)
- Some categories of intangible damage are: environmental quality, social well being, and aesthetic values
Uncertainty damage (Grigg, 1975)
- The loss from uncertainty damage is from the stress of the occupants of a flood plain suffer because of the uncertainty with regard to when flood will occur and how serious it will be
Both intangible and uncertainty damage can be categorized as potential damage
The asset values and the ratio of each asset and inundated depth are used for estimating the amount of damage Damage items are categorized into structures and contents in a residential area, farmland and crops in an agricultural area, tangible assets and inventories in an industrial area, public facilities, and casualties
Procedure to estimate the flood damages by MD-FDAProcedure to estimate the flood damages by MD-FDA
CasualtiesCasualties To estimate the number of death and
injury, the concept of ratio from the number of death and injury per area is used
The socio-economical loss of death is the function of life expectancy and GDP
The loss of injury is 50 % of the death according to the domestic law of Korea. Thus the percent is flexible with the inherent standards of a applied basin for the severity ratio of injury to death
(Unit: n/ha)The number of death and injury per flooded area
(Ref. A study on the Economic Analysis in Flood Control Projects, 2004)
Structural and agricultural damageStructural and agricultural damage
Urban area Lower flood velocity could
be expected Historical record(2002/8) Complete destruction 12 Half destruction
14 No destruction
2,188
Mountainous area Higher flood velocity could
be expected Historical record(2002/8) Complete destruction 60 Half destruction
69 No destruction
0
Estimation of the destroyed buildingEstimation of the destroyed building Through considering the historical record which shows destruction
tendency of building for flood, the number of destroyed building for simulated flood can be estimated
There are similar flood velocity and depth if the flooded location and area are the same
The number of destroyed building has a linear correlation with the flooded area
There are similar flood velocity and depth if the flooded location and area are the same
The number of destroyed building has a linear correlation with the flooded area
Public facility damagePublic facility damage The damage ratio of public facilities to general assets is applied to
estimated the amount of public facility damage
The damage ratio of public facilities to general assets
(Ref. A study on the Economic Analysis in Flood Control Projects, 2004)