Sub-Saharan African energy .Sub-Saharan African energy futures: Kenya, ... socio-cultural dimensions

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  • Sub-Saharan African energy futures:

    Kenya, Tanzania and South Africa

    Joni Karjalainen University of Turku

    Finland Futures Research Centre (FFRC)Neo-Carbon Energy

    9th Researchers Day 11th December 2017

    joni.karjalainen@utu.fi

    WP1: Neo-Carbon Enabling Neo-Growth Society Transformative Energy Futures 2050

  • Reflections for transformative scenarios until 2050. Focus on societal disruptions, transformations and discontinuities

    Characterise possible socio-economic futures related to neo-carbon energy system.

    What kinds of societal economic, cultural, political and lifestyles-related changes does the neo-carbon energy system promote and enable?

    Case countries in the Sub-Saharan African region: South Africa, Kenya, Tanzania

    INTERNATIONAL PERSPECTIVES

  • RESULTS 3 futures workshops: 2 in Nairobi, Kenya and 1 in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania 1 WP1 Working Paper, 1 e-Book 1 published article: Karjalainen, Joni & Heinonen, Sirkka (2017) Using

    Deliberative Foresight to envision a Neo-Carbon Energy Innovation Ecosystem the Case Study of Kenya. African Journal for Science, Technology, Innovation and Development. Pages 1-17, ISSN 2042-1338, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/20421338.2017.1366133

    1 in peer-review: Karjalainen, J. & Byrne, R. (2018) Pioneering solar energy companies in Kenya and Tanzania past development trajectories and future scenarios, Energy Research & Social Science. Forthcoming

    2 conference papers have been submitted into Futures Conference June 13-14, 2018 Tampere

  • Kenya Tanzania South

    Africa

    Human Development Index1 (188 countries ranked) 146. 151. 119.

    CO2 emissions per capita (2015)2 (204 regions ranked) 172. 181. 39.

    Global Innovation Index3 (127 countries ranked) 80. 96. 57.

    % of R&D spending out of GDP4(year of latest available data)

    0.78 %(2010)

    0.53 %(2013)

    0.73 %(2013)

    CASE STUDY COUNTRIES

    1HDR 2017 2EU-JRC/PBL 2016 3GII 2017 4World Bank 2017

    Table. Data about the three case study countries: Kenya, Tanzania and South Africa.

  • Sub-Saharan Africa

    Geographical construct

    Kenya

    Tanzania

    South Africa

    Figure. Wikimedia Commons

  • Kenya

    Tanzania

    South Africa

    Sub-Saharan Africa (1939)

    Wave of independence in the 1960s

    Figure. Wikimedia Commons

  • Sub-Saharan Africa (2013)

    What each country in the world leads in

    Kenya

    Tanzania

    South AfricaFigure. Doghouse Diaries 2013 Full Map https://i2.wp.com/gypsy.ninja/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/11.jpg?ssl=1https://i.pinimg.com/originals/28/0b/4a/280b4ab64df7e5197d003e12205be35b.jpg

  • Kenya

    Tanzania

    South Africa

    Sub-Saharan Africa

    Solar mapData: Solar GIS

  • Renewable energy, solar in particular is increasingly

    expected to power Africas future

  • A powerful sociotechnical imaginary for the Global South(Cloke, Mohr, and Brown 2017)

    The research agenda should better understandtransformations for sustainability (Wiek and Lang 2016), howthey are enabled, why they happen and by whom

    A research gap exists in understanding the political andsocio-cultural dimensions to this rapidly unfolding transition inAfrican countries.

  • METHODOLOGY AND DATA

    Testing transformative energy scenarios 2050 Expert interviews (typically local energy and innovation experts) Three futures workshops as focus group discussions

    24th September 2015 in Nairobi, Kenya 8th October 2015 in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania 18th October 2017 in Nairobi, Kenya

    Cross-fertilization of research 2nd Stakeholder Forum of the Africa-EU Energy Partnership 16.-17.5.2016 SPRU PhD Forum in the University of Sussex, Brighton, UK 9 May 2017 EEP Knowledge Exchange Seminar in Kampala, Uganda 2017, 11 October 2017

  • FUTURES WORKSHOP I: NAIROBI

    Ali Hersi from Society for International Development (SID INT) delivered opening words. Professor IzaelDa Silva from Strathmore University and Chrispine Oduor from IEA-Kenya provided expert presentations in the futures workshop in September 24, 2015.

    Participants policy-makers, business-leaders, energyresearchers and futures community

    Discussion on 100% renewable energy futures, globaltrends in Kenya.

    In the afternoon, the workshop participants commentedthe four scenarios.

  • FUTURES WORKSHOP II: DAR ES SALAAM

    The participants were aspiring entrepreneurs, innovatorsor local university students

    Discussion on the significance of renewable energytechnologies, impacts and related skills necessary.

    In the end, the workshop participants were asked toimagine where Tanzania could be in 2020, 2030 or2050?

    Dar es Salaam futures workshop participants in BUNI Hub, Commission of Science and Technology (COSTECH) in October 8, 2015.

  • Energizing surprises future transformation through innovation? was co-organised in Nairobi October 18, 2017 by the University of Turku, Finland Futures Research Centre (FFRC) and Afrepren/FWD Energy, Environment and Development Network for Africa.

    FUTURES WORKSHOP III: NAIROBI

    The workshop participants were local energy experts, technology and research community, including KenyasRural Energy Authority (REA)

    Discussion focussed on surprises 100 % renewables, energy planning and the role of institutions

  • SOUTHAFRICA

    Apartheid, was introduced in 1948, international pressureincluded an internationaloil embargo in the 1980s

    Despite post-apartheid era since 1994, deep divides persist

    Electricity access 84-88%

  • 77 % of South Africa's primary energy needs provided by coal.

    Economic activity driven by mining industry, minerals-energy complex (Baker et al. 2014)

    South Africa has the 13th highest emissions in the entire world, the largest CO2 emitter in the continent

    Energy crisis since 2007. Load-shedding now eased from the worst periods

    LOCKED IN COAL Johannesburg

    Cape Town

  • / SOUTHAFRICA: WIND AND SOLAR

    Figure. South Africas wind resources. Mean wind speed(WRF based) Data: WASA 2014.

    Figure. South Africa receives between 1900-2500kWh/m2 of solar irradiation. The best solarconditions are in the Western Cape area, in thenorthwestern region of the country. Data: SolarGIS

  • / SOUTHAFRICA

    Figure. http://www.energyintelligence.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Renewable-Energy-South-Africa-Electricity-Power-Plants.jpg

  • Figure. Blue Horizon. http://bluehorizon.energy/insights-news/

    RE IPPPP

  • SOUTHAFRICA:RE IPPPP RE IPPPP (Renewable Energy

    Independent Power Producer Procurement Program) in 2011

    Auction mechanism with bidding rounds

    The most successful public-private partnership in Africa in 20 years

    Resistance by Eskom, the state utility, has delayed RE IPPPP projects

    Numsa, the metalworkers union, also advocates for renewable energy, but has questioned RE IPPPP on thebasis that it favoursexperienced global players over keeping production local and socially owned

  • FUTURE DIRECTIONS

    As the world moves away from coal, South Africa

    will need to consider the implications. The country

    depends heavily on the mineral as a source of

    economic value, employment and energy.

    (Statistics SA)

    This [high share of coal in This [high share of coal in energy production] is unlikely to change significantly in the next two decades owing to the relative lack of suitable alternatives to coal as an

    energy source. Many of the deposits can be exploited at extremely favourable costs

    and, as a result, a large coal-mining industry has

    developed.

    (Government of SA)

  • TANZANIA

    Tanzanias land area is at 550 000km2. In the rural areas, onlyaround 5% has been estimated tobe electrified.

    The 2016 survey interviewed10,140 households, in 26 Mainlandregions, covering 676 enumerationareas in the Tanzania Mainland.

  • REA (2017) Energy Access Situation Report, 2016 Tanzania Mainland. Rural Energy Agency. April 19, 2017. http://rea.go.tz/NewsCenter/TabId/130/ArtMID/639/ArticleID/91/Energy-Access-Situation-Report-2016-Tanzania-Mainland.aspx

    Solar energy as a source of lighting has increased: 1.4 percent (2012) to 8.1 percent (2016)

    13 % households own PV system, 78% mobile phone. More common to own PV than an electric iron

    Out of electrified rural households, 64.8% with solar power

    Of electrified households, 24.7 percent by solar power, 74.9 percent receive electricity through the grid

    (See Pages 3, 32, 46-47, 50)

    ???

  • KENYA: WIND AND SOLAR

  • Energy Planning in Kenya: 2003-2016

    0

    500

    1000

    1500

    2000

    2500

    2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

    Hydro Thermal Oil Cogeneration Wind Geothermal Solar

    Has diversified countrys energysector successfully, hydro and geothermal are major contributors

    Figure by Karekezi (2017)

  • 4.3

    10.0 9.8 9.78.8 8.6

    10.212.2 12.4

    13.4

    26.1 26.927.0

    0.0

    5.0

    10.0

    15.0

    20.0

    25.0

    30.0

    2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

    Perc

    enta

    ge

    Year

    Establishment of Geothermal

    Development Corporation

    (GDC)

    % Geothermal of Total National Installed Capacity

    Data: Kenya Power (KPLC) Annual Reports 2002/03-2015/16Figure by Karekezi (2017)

  • 10,914,5

    16,1

    23 23

    2730

    47

    55

    0

    10

    20