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Integrated land use modelling Petr Havlík [email protected] Environmental Resources and Development Group (ERD) Ecosystems Services and Management Program (ESM) International Symposium: “Integrated Science for Sustainable Transitions” IIASA, Laxenburg, April 29, 2015

Integrated land use modelling · African Livestock Futures Realizing the IX'tential of livestcxk for security, poserty reduction and the environment in Sub-Saharan Report S Il-RI

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Page 1: Integrated land use modelling · African Livestock Futures Realizing the IX'tential of livestcxk for security, poserty reduction and the environment in Sub-Saharan Report S Il-RI

Integrated land use modelling

Petr Havlí[email protected]

Environmental Resources and Development Group (ERD)Ecosystems Services and Management Program (ESM)

International Symposium:“Integrated Science for Sustainable Transitions”

IIASA, Laxenburg, April 29, 2015 

Page 2: Integrated land use modelling · African Livestock Futures Realizing the IX'tential of livestcxk for security, poserty reduction and the environment in Sub-Saharan Report S Il-RI
Page 3: Integrated land use modelling · African Livestock Futures Realizing the IX'tential of livestcxk for security, poserty reduction and the environment in Sub-Saharan Report S Il-RI

The devil in the detail: Livestock production systems (LPS)

Havlik et al. 2014, PNASHerrero et al. 2013, PNAS

Page 4: Integrated land use modelling · African Livestock Futures Realizing the IX'tential of livestcxk for security, poserty reduction and the environment in Sub-Saharan Report S Il-RI

Sectors integration without compromises

Energy:MESSAGEPOLESWITCH 

Agricultural sector model

AgMIP, OECD, FAO

Forest sector model

EC, US EPA, Sweden

GHG emissions

EC, WB, US EPA, Brazil, Congo Basin…

Other environmental aspects

Everywhere…

GLOBIOM

Earth System Model: IPSL‐CM5

Page 5: Integrated land use modelling · African Livestock Futures Realizing the IX'tential of livestcxk for security, poserty reduction and the environment in Sub-Saharan Report S Il-RI

Spatial integration: From global to local and backStakeholder process

Regional scenariosModel improvement

Output/Impact?

Page 6: Integrated land use modelling · African Livestock Futures Realizing the IX'tential of livestcxk for security, poserty reduction and the environment in Sub-Saharan Report S Il-RI

Work in progress

Grasslands: The unknown quarter of the land

Fish: The new big cow 

Crossing the timescales: From decades to years…

People: Smallholders and urban dwellers

What next?