Strengthening Evidence-Based Climate Change Adaptation Policies

(SECCAP) for Agriculture

with support from

Project inception meeting for Malawi 27 May 2011

policy@fanrpan.org

www.fanrpan.org

Background

1. Smallholder farmers, account for the majority of agriculture production in the region; More than 50 percent of agricultural land allocated

to cereals, Maize accounting for more than 40 percent of the

total harvested area

2. The lack of synergy in on-going food security policy processes in Africa e.g.• Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development

Programme (CAADP);

• National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs);

• Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action (NAMAs)

n Limited scientific evidence to inform policy development ;

n Coping mechanisms, livelihood strategies and aspirations of rural communities not sufficiently understood;

Swaziland: Source: World Bank 2010.

Focal Countries

Lesotho, Malawi and Swaziland

SECCAP Objectives

1. To generate solid scientific understanding on climate change downscaling;

2. To integrate downscaled climate scenarios with district-wide household vulnerability information;

3. To determine the socio-economic feasibility of recommended cropping options;

4. To develop appropriate policy recommendations, in particular the NAPA priorities in agriculture;

5. To transfer the knowledge generated to decision/policy makers and local communities;

Crop Production Models

DownscaledClimate Models

Cost Benefit Analysis

Enhanced Science

Integrated Approach

Livelihoods Analysis

InformedPolicy

Project partners

International Food Policy Research Institute

University of Venda(South Africa)

National University of Lesotho

University of Swaziland

University of MalawiUniversity of Cape Town

Organisation Role

• University of Cape Town,

• Departments of Meteorological Services

• Ministries of Agriculture

• Generate downscaled climate data for one selected district in each of the three project countries

• Use DSSAT crop model to compute crop yield and production of selected staples in the selected districts

• Use an optimization model to generate knowledge on production responses to changes in agronomic practices

• Collate crop production data from FAO statistics and national central statistics

• IFPRI

• University of Lesotho• University of Malawi• University of Swaziland

• Training on use of the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT)

• Use IMPACT model to examine alternative futures for food supply, demand, trade, prices and food security

Partners role

Organisation Role

• World Vision International

• University of Lesotho• University of Malawi• University of Swaziland• University of Venda

• Development Data (DD)

• Facilitate the domestication of existing livelihood databases at university and community levels

• Train three (policy analysts/socio economists) post graduate students on how to analyse existing household livelihood databases

• Collate livelihood and cost benefit data from FAO statistics, national central statistics and the FANRPAN livelihood databases

• Up-scale and integrate livelihood databases with crop production outputs modelling

• Generate knowledge of vulnerability to guide crafting of adaptation strategies and coping mechanisms

Partners role

Organisation Role

• World Vision International

• University of Lesotho, University of Malawi, University of Swaziland, University of Venda

• Development Data (DD)

• Develop appropriate policy recommendations - Particularly for the finalization of the Swaziland NAPA, the implementation of the Lesotho and Malawi NAPA priorities in agriculture

• Dissemination of evidence generated by the project, and localising CAADP processes at community level

Partners role

• Strengthened local scientific, expertise and local

knowledge;

• Strengthened partnership and networking on

adaptation research among different institutions;

• Use integrated approach to assesses adaptation

investment options (combining climate, crop,

productivity and livelihoods);

• Rank cropping adaptation options on the basis of

feasibility (climate, cost benefit and policy);

Expected outcomes

•Knowledge generated on household vulnerability for

cropping adaptation for Lesotho, Malawi and

Swaziland;

•Strengthened multi-stakeholder/trans-disciplinary

national and regional policy dialogue platforms; and

•NAPAs developed/revised/implemented on the basis

of evidence produced.

Expected outcomes

Project Outputs Activity Year 1 Year 2 Year 3

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

1. Partnership and networks established and strengthened

1.1. Mobilize and develop common vision with implementing partners

1.2. Formalize collaboration agreements with implementing partners

1.3. Annual common vision meetings for partners

2. Downscaled future climate scenarios generated

2.1. 3 Post-doctoral fellows engaged by UCT

2.2. Collating observational climate data 2.3. Adapting existing climate models to

study focal areas

2.4. Running climate change simulations 2.5. Spatial maps for projected climate

produced

3. Site specific crop performance projections

3.1. One BSc undergraduate student engaged in each of 3 focal countries

3.2. Students review cropping literature and collate data required for crop performance projections

3.3. Relevant databases domesticated and audited

3.4. UCT Running simulation models of crop performance scenarios

3.5. UCT running sensitivity analysis and multi-objective optimizations

3.6. Spatial maps for crop performance produced

Work planMarch 2011 to March 2014

4. Cost-benefit analysis scenarios

4.1. Focal universities engage one agricultural-economics post graduate student each

4.2. Students collate relevant data for cost benefit analysis

4.3. IFPRI trains students on IMPACT model

4.4. Simulating IMPACT model scenarios

4.5. Recommended cropping options costed and mapped (by locations and crops)

5. Household vulnerability integrated to climate risk

5.1. Engage three policy analysts/socio-economists

5.2. Domesticating and hosting of livelihood databases at the focal universities

5.3. Undertake analysis of livelihood databases to generate knowledge of vulnerability to guide crafting of adaptation strategies and coping mechanisms

5.4. Undertake policy reviews and make policy recommendations for safeguarding livelihoods and helping crop producing households adapt to climate change

5.5. Produce an asset profile of crop producing households under projected climate and cropping systems

Work plan

6. Climate adaptation knowledge and policy options disseminated

6.1. Peer-reviewed publications 6.2. Policy briefs and newsletters 6.3. Community level policy dialogues 6.4. National policy dialogues 6.5. Regional policy dialogues 6.6. Website updates

7. Project evaluation

7.1. Project evaluation

Work plan

CopyrightFANRPAN Regional Secretariat

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Email: policy@fanrpan.org Website: www.fanrpan.org