Understanding the world from a new perspective

THE METHODOLOGY OF GEOPOLITICS

   

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INTRODUCTION

•  Forecasting and the Human Condition •  Birth and Love •  Love of One’s Own – Writ Large

•  Place and Fear

•  Time and Resistance

   

   

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THE PURPOSE OF GEOPOLITICS

•  The study of geopolitics tries to distinguish between those things that are eternal, those things that are of long duration and those things that are transitory — using the prism of geography and power.

•  Geopolitical inquiry not only describes, but seeks to predict,

what will happen. •  Geopolitics is the next generation’s common sense.

   

Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow, Creeps in this petty pace from day to day, To the last syllables of recorded time, And all our yesterdays have lighted fools The way to dusty death. … Life’s but a walking shadow, a poor player That struts and frets his hour upon the stage, And then is heard no more. It is a tale Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, Signifying nothing.

-- MACBETH ACT 5, SCENE 5    

THE SIGNIFICANCE OF HISTORY    

   

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BUT…

•  … the gulf between the UNCERTAINTY of a prediction and the IMPOSSIBILITY of a prediction is vast.

   

THE TROUBLE WITH SHAKESPEARE    

   

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•  If history is random and meaningless, predicting the future is impossible.

•  Forecasting is built into the human condition. All actions

taken are intended to have a predictable outcome. •  Knowledge is imperfect, and some outcomes are not as

predicted.

The search for predictability suffuses all of the human condition.

-- Dr. George Friedman

   

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RESISTANCE TO UNCERTAINTY

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•  The simplest sort of forecast is about nature, since it lacks will and cannot make choices. (For instance, Saturn will not suddenly change its orbit in a fit of pique.)

•  The hardest things to predict involve human behavior. •  Entire sciences are devoted to the forecasting of human

behavior: •  Econometrics •  Military modeling •  Stock and labor market analysis •  Etc.

   

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THOUGHTS ON FORECASTING    

•  All these systems operate in the same way:

•  Use of statistical models to predict general behavior.

•  Economic and war models both try to predict behavior of many individuals interacting with nature and technology.

   

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THOUGHTS ON FORECASTING    

   

Birth and Love

•  To forecast the behavior of humans, begin with the simplest, most obvious facts about humans. Don’t leap ahead:

•  Humans are born and die.

•  Humans protect and care for themselves and their young by forming families.

   

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BEGIN WITH THE OBVIOUS    

•  Most families don’t live in isolation, but within social systems and constructs designed for further protection and economic viability:

   

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THE STRENGTHS OF TOGETHERNESS    

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•  With whom should one ally to create a larger community beyond immediate family?

•  Historically, in-laws and relatives.

•  Why should you trust a relative more than a stranger? •  “The love of one’s own stands at the heart of any understanding of

how humans behave and whether that behavior can be predicted. It also contrasts sharply with a competing vision of love – the love of acquired things, a tension that defines the last 500 years of European and world history.”

   

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LOVE AND TRUST    

The idea that this acquired love, which includes romantic love, should pre-empty the love of one’s own introduces a radical new dynamic to history, in which the individual and choice supersede community and obligation.

   

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A STRUGGLE FOR THE AGES

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•  “Romeo and Juliet”

•  Montagues and Capulets are warring clans

•  Romeo and Juliet are smitten

•  Which love takes precedence? •  Love of one’s own – family, religion,

tradition? •  “Acquired love” – chosen to please the

individual?

   

BACK TO SHAKESPEARE    

   

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•  In traditional societies, marriages are/were often arranged – promoting loyalty and obligation to family and tradition over the individual.

•  As a dynamic, the notion of “romantic” or “acquired” love – a la Romeo and Juliet – suggests the individual and choice supersede community and obligation.

•  American Declaration of Independence elevates “life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness” over obligation – a shift from traditional societies.

   

A CONFLICT OF LOYALTIES    

   

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•  Europe: Revolutionary Protestantism and the Enlightenment

•  Protestantism elevates conscience to the pinnacle of human faculties, and conscience dictates choice.

•  The Enlightenment: Choice + Reason = Idea: The individual is bound not by what he is taught to believe, but what his own reason tells him is just and proper .

   

INTRODUCING IDEOLOGY    

   

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Tradition is superseded by reason and the old regime superseded by artificially constructed regimes forged in revolution.

-- Dr. George Friedman

   

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THE EUROPEAN ENLIGHTENMENT

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•  Modernity is the enemy of birth in general.

•  Old order: Dynasties, empires and monarchies distributed rights based on birth.

•  Modern revolutionary regimes: Hold that birth is an accident that gives no one authority. Rights are distributed based on individual achievement and demonstrated virtue, not virtue assumed at birth.

   

BIRTH AND MODERNITY    

   

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Love of One’s Own – Writ Large

The struggle between the love of one’s own and the love of acquired things has been the hallmark of the last 500 years. It has been a struggle between traditional societies in which obligations derive from birth and are imposed by a natural, simple and unreflective love of one’s own and revolutionary societies in which obligations derive from choice and from a complex, self-aware love of things that are acquired — lovers or regimes.

   

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A STRUGGLE FOR THE AGES

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•  The “love of one’s own” – community, clan or nationality -- is an ALMOST overpowering impulse.

•  Almost = not quite: Self-love and love of acquired things are celebrated in the modern age.

•  i.e., Citizenship can be acquired or renounced

•  Place of birth and history can never be shed

   

INTRODUCING NATIONALISM    

   

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•  “The Wealth of Nations”

•  Economist belief: Primary purpose of the individual = maximize self-interest in the material sense to acquire wealth

•  All men will naturally seek to acquire wealth if left to their own devices

•  Self-interest is a natural impulse.    

A NOD TO ADAM SMITH    

   

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•  Altruism is impossible.

•  No soldier would consent to fight and die for the sake of an idea or country.

•  Self-sacrifice is illogical.

•  Nationalism could not exist.

   

IF SMITH IS WHOLLY CORRECT …    

   

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NATIONALISM AND LOVE OF ONE’S OWN    

   

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This is one of those cases in which the imagination is baffled by the facts.

-- Adam Smith

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•  Concept born of European and American revolutions.

•  Pre-revolution: Dynasties governed nations by right of birth.

•  European revolutions: Goal was to break the regime.

•  Driving force: Love of one’s own community and nation, hatred of foreign domination.

•  Doctrine of national self-determination emerged as a principle, coinciding with doctrine of rights of man.

   

NATIONAL SELF-DETERMINATION: AN IDEAL    

   

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At the root of modern liberal society, the eccentric heart of the human condition continues to beat – the love of one’s own. There is no escape from love of one’s own, at least not for the mass of humanity …

   

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AN INESCAPABLE FORCE

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Nietzche spoke of horizons. A horizon is an optical illusion, but it is a comforting illusion. It gives you the sense that the world is manageable rather than enormously larger than you are. The horizon gives you a sense of place that frames you and your community. It relieves you of the burden of thinking about the vastness of things. It gives you a manageable place, and place, after love, defines who you are the most.

   

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AN INESCAPABLE FORCE

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Place and Fear

•  The nature of communities – whether cities, nations or nomadic groups – derives from place.

   

THE IMPORTANCE OF PLACE    

   

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•  Geography helps to shape culture.

   

THE IMPORTANCE OF PLACE    

   

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•  In addition to culture, geography helps determine strengths, imperatives and constraints of a nation-state or community.

•  For example:

   

OBSERVATIONS ON GEOGRAPHY    

   

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•  When located along borders, mountains help to defend against invasion and promote the growth of an economy and culture.

   

GEOGRAPHY: MOUNTAINS    

   

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•  Located within borders, mountains are often home to insular clans or societies with distinctive cultures.

•  Insurgencies and ethno-sectarian strife may be found in these regions (example: Balkans).

   

GEOGRAPHY: MOUNTAINS    

   

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•  Rivers are conducive to trade, capital formation and the wealth of a society

•  … as long as they flow in the right direction.

   

GEOGRAPHY: RIVERS    

   

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•  Rivers are conducive to trade, capital formation and the wealth of a society

•  … as long as they flow in the right direction.

•  (Russia’s don’t.)

   

GEOGRAPHY: RIVERS    

   

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•  A well-watered plain is conducive to farming, agriculture and some degree of self-sufficiency for a society.

•  Plains are also a traditional avenue for attacking armies in times of war.

   

GEOGRAPHY: PLAINS    

   

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•  Love of one’s own is quickly followed by fear of the other.

•  Fear is a constant between separate communities, living in proximity.

•  Unknown intentions = distrust and fear.

•  Distrust drives pre-emptive action to ward off worst-case scenarios.

   

A FEW WORDS ON FEAR    

   

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Nations and other communities act out of fear far more than they act out of greed or love. The fear of catastrophe drives foreign policies of nomadic tribes and nation-states. That fear, in turn, is driven by place. Geography defines opportunities; it also defines vulnerabilities and weaknesses. The fear of dependence and destruction drives nations – a fear that is ultimately rooted in place.

   

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THE KEY POINT

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Time and Resistance

•  Communities are not homogeneous, and rarely behave as a single organism. Each community may be home to different:

   

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WEALTH AND CLASS: ONGOING FRICTIONS    

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•  The distinction between rich and poor remains the most essential – it helps to frame identity and predict behavior.

For the rich and the intellectual, an optical illusion frequently emerges: that nationalism doesn’t really matter. The world’s richest people, able to place layers of technology and servants between themselves and nature, live far more like each other than like their own countrymen. Wealth appears to dissolve place. The same with the intelligentsia, who have more in common with each other than with the townsfolk who serve the food at the university.

   

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OBSERVATIONS ON CLASS AND MARXISM

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One would think that similar universalization of interest would take place among poorer people. Karl Marx argued that the workers have no country and they feel transnational solidarity with other workers. But there is not the slightest empirical evidence that the workers or peasants have felt they have no country or, at least, community. Certainly, the 20th century has been the graveyard of intellectual fantasies about the indifference of lower classes to national interest.

   

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OBSERVATIONS ON CLASS AND MARXISM

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•  When catastrophe occurs, who shares your fate?

•  Small communities

(example: Israel): All are affected, rich and poor alike

•  Larger communities are

impacted to differing degrees, based on the resources available to individuals

   

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TWO AXES OF COMMUNITY    

LARGE COMMUNITY

SMALL COMMUNITY

POOR RICH

•  Conclusion: As a rule, poorer classes are more conservative about taking risks, and less resilient if risk-taking results in loss.

   

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TWO AXES OF COMMUNITY    

LARGE COMMUNITY

SMALL COMMUNITY

POOR RICH

If love is the first emotion that men experience, then fear is the second. Love of one’s own is rapidly followed by fear of the other. The weaker the person, the fewer the resources he has and the more dependent he is on the community he inhabits. The more dependent he is, the more cautious he will be in taking risks. The common man lives his life in fear – and he is not at all irrational in doing so.

   

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FEARS OF THE COMMON MAN

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•  Struggle between (wealthy) internationalists and (common) nationalists.

•  Internationalists: Transnational adventures – the IMF, WTO, European Union, NAFTA – will benefit society as a whole in the long run.

•  Common man: Less capacity to invest in, and sacrifice for, the long run.

•  The distant future is a prospect that only the wealthy can enjoy.    

CLASS STRUGGLE IN THE DEMOCRATIC AGE    

   

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•  Economic growth, on a macro scale, is a multi-generational endeavor.

•  Societies and people run on different clocks: •  Society counts in terms of generations and centuries

•  Individuals count in terms of years and decades

   

FUNDAMENTAL TENSION BETWEEN NATIONS AND INDIVIDUALS

       

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Under most circumstances, where the individuals affected are few and disorganized, the nation grinds down the individual. In those cases where the individual understands that his children might make a significant leap forward, the individual might acquiesce. But when the affected individuals form a substantial bloc, and when even the doubling of an economy might not make a significant difference in the happiness of children, they might well resist.

   

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THE BOTTOM LINE

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Focus on the clock – on the different scales of time, and how they change things.

   

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THE BOTTOM LINE

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IMAGE CREDITS

•  “The Hatfield Clan in 1897,” U.S. public domain •  “Hamer Tribe, Turbi, Ethiopia,” Rod Waddington, shared under terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-

ShareAlike 2.0 Generic license.* •  “Shanklin Old Village,” Steven Muster for the Geograph project collection, shared under terms of the Creative

Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 2.0 Generic license.* •  “Victorian Town, Blists Hill,” Colin Babb for the Geograph project collection, shared under terms of the Creative

Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 2.0 Generic license.* •  “Atlantic City at Night,” Ron Miguel, shared under terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic

license.** •  “Europe at the Beginning of the War of the Spanish Succession, 1700,” public domain •  “An Inuit boy untangles dogsled harnesses,” D. Wilkinson, 1952, via Library and Archives Canada, shared under

terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license.** •  “Times Square, looking south from 47th,” Hequals2henry, shared under the Creative Commons Attribution-

ShareAlike 3.0 Unported license.*** •  “Jerusalem, Dome of the Rock,” public domain •  “Group of friends smiling,” Hepingting via Flickr, shared under terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-

ShareAlike 2.0 Generic license.* •  “Beggar at Petaling Street,” Ariff Tajuddin, shared under terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic

license.** Note: Non-Stratfor images have been used here for illustrative purposes only, and are not intended to imply endorsement of Stratfor by any artist. No outside artwork has been altered in any way, other than cropping or resizing for purposes of this presentation.

*Terms of the license can be viewed at: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/ **Terms of the license can be viewed at: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/deed.en ***Terms of the license can be viewed at: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/deed.en

   

   

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