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Staying Ahead of the Curve
Prepared for PATA 60th Anniversary & Conference
Building Tourism: Past. Present. Progressive.by
Robert BroadfootPolitical & Economic Risk Consultancy, Ltd.
E-Mail: [email protected] 11, 2011
Uncertainty Matrix
Critical Planning Issues
Important Scenario Drivers
Critical Scenario Drivers
Important Planning Issues
Important Planning Issues
Important Scenario Drivers
Monitor MonitorMonitor;
Reassess Impact
Low Medium High
Degree of Uncertainty
Low
Medium
High
Level of Impact
Uncertainty Matrix
Demographics Economic growth
Labor availability, quality & retention issues
Radical changes in policy
National security concerns
Status & relations of key players
Crime levels Exchange & interest rate changes
Environmental issues
Inflation
Winning the rights to host major events
Corruption Construction costsWeather
Low Medium High
Degree of Uncertainty
Low
Medium
High
Level of Impact
Radical Policy ChangesLearn from the past. China, Vietnam, Hong Kong and Macao
1998 20100
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Other foreign visitors
China overnight travelers
China same-day travelers
Millions
1,767.2%
570.0%
178.2%
36.03
10.16
Reasons Behind HK’s Tourism Growth
Change in HK’s political statusLiberalization of visitor outflow by
BeijingPersonal income increases in ChinaExpanded infrastructureLand link
Where More Radical Policy Changes Are Likely
North Korea and MyanmarRelations with China are already better than
with most other countriesBoth countries are facing regime changes
and are under increasing economic pressureBoth have land links with ChinaBoth figure prominently in Beijing’s national
security considerations
Beijing’s National Security Concerns
Energy securityVulnerability of existing points of entry
and exitExposure to Malaca Strait’s risksEmphasis on self-sufficiency – inputs,
technology
China’s Mass Transport Plans• Rmb 3.5 trillion in new
investment between 2011 and 2015
• Double high-speed rail network to 16,000km
• 45 new airports at a cost of Rmb 1.5 trillion
Likely Response to Mitigate Risks
2020 Railway Vision
50,000 km of track connecting all provincial capitals and cities over 500,000
Accessible to 90% of Chinese Neighboring provincial capitals 1 to 2 hours apart Provincial capitals only half to one hours apart
from other cities in their province Travel time from Beijing to Hong Kong – 8 hours
by train
New Entry & Exit Points
PERC
China Is Pushing For Rail Links with Southeast Asia
China’s “Dry Canal” Through Columbia
The Big Railroad Picture
Status & Relations of Key Players
Who and which departments in China will actual have authority for implementing these plans and how will they interface?
Will corruption distort implementation and perhaps even undermine it?
Critical Drivers Will Help You Know
How pieces of the Asian puzzle are fitting together. Strengths and weaknesses of different branding
strategies. Local partnership identification. Where within individual countries and cities property
prices are likely to go up the most
Thank you and good luck!PERC
