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Status of Operational NWP System and the Satellite Data Utilization at JMA
Yoshiaki TakeuchiNumerical Prediction DivisionJapan Meteorological Agency
APSDEU-6, Seoul, 1 June 2005
Contents
1. Current NWP system at JMA
2. Recent developments
3. Future Plans
History of the JMA NWP System
HITACS810K
72.5
70.4
75.1
83.3
70.4
88.3
89.1
73.10 GSM(T213L40)
83.3
88.3
RSM(20km L36)
83.3 RSM(20km L40)
84.188.3 MSM(10km L40)
92.3 JSM(30km L23)
HITACM200H
HITACHI S3800
HITACHI SR8000E1
1982.3 1996.3 2001.31987.12
IBM704
1959.3 1967.4
HITAC8800
1973.8
HITAC5020F
N-Hem. Balance Barotropic(381km)
NH Balance(381kmL3)
NH Primitive;NHM(381km L4)
NHM(381km L8)
NH Spectral(T42L12)
Global Spectral; GSM(T63L16)
GSM(T106L21)
GSM(T213L30)
Regional Spectral ASM(75km L16)
FLM(127km L12)
FLM(127km L10)
Asia Fine Mesh;FLM(152.4km L6)
VFM(63.5km L13)
JSM(40km L19)
Asia Quasi Geostrophic(304.8km L4)
Very Fine Mesh;VFM(63.5km L11)
Non-HydrostaticMSM(10km L40)04.9
GSM(TL319L40)05.2
Global Model
(GSM)
Regional Model
(RSM)
Typhoon Model
(TYM)
Mesoscale Model
(MSM)
One-week Ensemble
One-month
Ensemble
ObjectivesMedium-
range forecast
Short-range
forecast
Typhoon forecast
Disaster reduction
One week
forecast
One month
forecast
Forecast domain
GlobalEast Asia
Typhoon and its
surrounding
Japan and its surrounding Global
Grid size / Number of
grids
0.5625 deg640 x 320 (TL319)
20 km325 x 257
24 km 271 x 271
10 km361 x 289
1.125 deg320 x 160
(T106)
Vertical levels / Top
40 0.4 hPa
40 10 hPa
25 17.5 hPa
40 22,060m
40 0.4 hPa
Forecast hours
(Initial time)
90 hours (00 UTC)216 hours (12 UTC)
51 hours(00,12 UTC)
84 hours(00,06,12,18 UTC)
18 hours(00,06,12,18 UTC)
9 days (12 UTC)
25 members
34 days(once a week)
26 members
Analysis 4D-Var 4D-VarInterpolated from Global
Analysis4D-Var
Global Analysis with ensemble perturbations
Current NWP models of NPD/JMA
RSM (20km)
GSM (60km)
MSM (10km)
Domains of NWP models
Supercomputer of JMAHITACHI SR 8000E1 (since March 2001)
80 nodes768 Gflops (peak)Main memory: 640 GBDisk storage: 2.7 TB
A mini-supercomputer, HITACHI SR8000F1 (8 nodes, 96 Gflops) was implemented in October 2003 for development of GSM.
Supercomputer (SR8000 E1/80)768 GF、 640 GB
FAX exchanging system
C-ADDESS
Operational Server
Meteorological MessageHandling Server
Operation SupportSystem
Disk (4.8TB)
Tape Library(80 TB)
DVD-RAM Library(2.4 TB)
Printers
Networks
KIYOSE Office(24km WNW from Tokyo)
Headquarters (Tokyo)
Networks
Operational ServerOperationSupport System
Printers
CMT
MT
8mm/DAT
CD-R
Terminals forForecast operationalOffice
Printers
WMO DDB Server
Terminals forOpen I/O Room
Terminals forHQ Offices
DVD-RAMLibrary(3.1 TB)
Open I/O Room
DLT
DVD-RAM
Numerical Analysis and Prediction SystemSystem for Telecommunication
ATM
20Mbps
Performance of GSM (1)NH Z500 (Day 1) SH Z500 (Day 1)
NH Z500 (Day 5) SH Z500 (Day 5)
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
RM
SE(ｍ）
J MA（日）ECMWF（欧）NCEP（米）UKMO（英）
プロジェクト目標（２５％削減）
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
RM
SE(ｍ）
J MA（日）ECMWF（欧）NCEP（米）UKMO（英）
プロジェクト目標（２５％削減）
40
50
60
70
80
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
RM
SE(ｍ）
J MA（日）ECMWF（欧）NCEP（米）UKMO（英）
2000 12年（平成 年）96 RMSE時間予報
50
60
70
80
90
100
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
RM
SE(ｍ）
J MA（日）ECMWF（欧）NCEP（米）UKMO（英）
2000 12年（平成 年）96 RMSE時間予報
WGNE Intercomparison of typhoon track forecasts from operational global models
Performance of GSM (2)
72 hour forecasts
Contents
1. Current NWP system at JMA
2. Recent developments
3. Future Plans
Operational Changes to GSM in JFY2004 (1)・ A new parameterization scheme for marine stratocumulus (2004.7)
・ A new long-wave radiation scheme and the parameterization of absorption in the short-wave radiation scheme (2004.12)
New model Old model Sat. obs.
Low level cloudiness
Bias of downward radiative flux
New model Old model
Operational Changes to GSM in JFY2004 (2)・ A semi-Lagrangian advection scheme, increase in the spectral resolution from T213 to TL319 (linear grid), an incremental non-linear normal mode initialization and a vertical mode initialization, etc. (2005.2)・ Assimilation of radio sonde temperature instead of the geopotential height (2004.4)・ A four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation and revision of background error statistics (2005.2)
Improvement of Typhoon track forecast
Red: 4D-Var
Blue: 3D-Var
Operational Changes to GSM in JFY2004 (3)・ Terra/MODIS and Aqua/MODIS winds in the north polar region (2004.5)
and those in the south polar region (2004.9)・ Direct assimilation of ATOVS level 1C data instead of the level 1D data and the upgrade of the radiative transfer model from RTTOV-6 to RTTOV-7 (2004.12)・ Direct assimilation of Aqua/AMSU-A level 1C data (2005.3)
Improvement of AC score of Z500 in NH
Red: with MODIS
Blue: w/o MODIS
Operational Change to MSM in JFY2004 (1)
・ A non-hydrostatic mesoscale model (2004.9)
Hydrostatic MSM Non-hydrostatic MSM
Radar/AMeDAS
Heavy rain in Bai-u season
Snowfall in Winter
Operational Change to MSM in JFY2004 (2)・ Assimilation of QuikSCAT/SeaWinds (2004.7)
・ Assimilation of Aqua/AMSR-E precipitation and precipitable water data (2004.11)
・ Assimilation of Doppler Radar radial wind data (2005.3)
w/o SCAT with SCAT Radar/AMeDAS
Heavy rain in Summer
Snowfall in Winter
6時間予報
9時間予報
［mm/3hour］0 0.5 1.0 5.0 10.0 20.0 30.0
A. AMSR-E なし B. AMSR-E あり C. 解析雨量
6時間予報
9時間予報
［mm/3hour］0 0.5 1.0 5.0 10.0 20.0 30.0
A. AMSR-E なし B. AMSR-E あり C. 解析雨量 w/o AMSR-E with AMSR-E Radar/AMeDAS
Diurnal change of data coverage for MSM
0300JST
Diurnal change of data coverage for MSM
0900JST
Exchange of direct broadcast ATOVS dataKMA (Seoul)
02 Jan 2005Blue: KMA (Seoul) Level-1dRed: JMA (Kiyose) Level-1c
OCT 2004 JMA provided KMA with sample data received at Kiyose processed by AAPP APR 2005 KMA provided JMA with sample data received at Seoul processed by AAPP
CMA (Beijing, Guanzhou, Urumuqi, Lasha)Hong Kong ChinaBoM (Melbourne, Perth, Darwin, Casey)
Needs to exchange of sample data
Exchange of direct broadcast ATOVS data
INTELSAT1Mbps National Institute of
Polar Research
JMA/HQ
RSMC server
FEB 2004-
AUG 2004-
OCT 2004-
GSM fcst 81MB/dayWave model fcst 2MB/day(GRIB 1.25deg)
JMA/MSC
RV ShiraseDome Fuji
NOAA & SSM/I
Direct Broadcast
Assimilation &Forecast
AAPP L1C Proc.
HRPT or TIP
Products (Map, Time sequence)
FEB 1997-
TBD
SEP 2004-
Syowa base
BoM etc.
TBD
(c) NIPR
Scatterometer and microwave radiometer data
2004/08 MA2712
10 20 30 40 50 60 70
-0.5 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 5.0 10.0 20.0
Surface wind derived from QuikSCAT / SeaWinds and precipitable water (colored circle dots) and rain rate (colored square dots) derived from SSM/I and TMI. All data for 06UTC-12UTC 27 August 2004 are usedin the JMA meso-scale NWP model.
From our recent experience of satellite data use, definitely a scatterometer much improves the operational NWP application as well as a microwave radiometer does. Furthermore the benefits are magnified synergically when the two instruments are aboard a satellite together.
Continuation of QuikSCAT/SeaWinds and TRMM/TMI operations is essential in the operational NWP application.Early launch of METOP/ASCAT and GPMcore/GMI, and realization of GCOM-W/ AMSR-2 and SeaWinds are highly expected.
Contents
1. Current NWP system at JMA
2. Recent developments
3. Future Plans
Development Plans for JFY2005New Observation►MWR (SSMI / TMI / AMSR-E) radiance data for GSM►0.25 deg. SST data based on AVHRR and MWR for GSM, RSM and MSM►Revised bias correction of ATOVS 1C data for GSM►MTSAT-1R AMV and Meteosat-8 AMV for all models►MTSAT-1R hourly AMV for all models►Geostationary satellites WV data for GSM based on RTTOV-7►Aqua/AIRS radiance data for GSM ►GPS occultation data for GSMAnalysis and Model►Improvement of resolution of 4D-Var inner model for GSM►Modification of physics for GSM (cloud radiation, gravity wave drag, etc.)►Two time level integration and a reduced grid for GSM►8 times operation of 5km MSM a day
Hitachi SR11000J1 2.1GFlops×16processors×8
0nodes×2=21.5TFlops 1.9GFlops×16processors×5
0nodes×1=6.1TFlops 13.1TB Main memory 67TB Disk 2PB Tape
Mar 2005- Mar 2006-
HITACHI SR11000J1 -210nodes
50nodes 80nodes
80nodes
27.5Tflops
New Supercomputer of JMA
Satellite data processing
NWP
Plan of the JMA NWP System
JFY 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
120km
60km
40km
20km
10km
5km
2km
Ho
rizo
nta
l res
olu
tio
n GSM
3D-Var 4D-Var
TYM
RSM
High-res. MSM
Thick arrows: forecast modelsThin arrows : assimilation methods
4D-Var
Hydrostatic 4D-Var
4D-Var
Non-hydrostatic 4D-Var
Non-hydrostatic 3D-Var
WeeklyEnsemble
MSM
Computer Replacement
Non-hydrostatic 10kmL40Hydrostatic
OI
Computer Replacement
Meso-Ensemble
TL319L60M51BGM→SV
T106L40M25 TL159M51
TL959L60 TL959L80
TL479L80M51
4D-Var with EKF
SeasonalEnsemble CGCM TL159L60M51+0.5deg
T213L40 TL319L40
with mixed layer
TyphoonEnsemble
TL319L60M11
TL479L80M25
2kmL60
5kmL50
24kmL25
20kmL40
TL159L60M51
5kmL60
Requirements from JMA
►Continuation of the QuikSCAT and TRMM operation (NASA)►SeaWinds for GCOM-W and GMI for GPM (NASA) ►SSM/IS distribution through GTS (NWS, NESDIS)►ASCAT distribution through GTS (NWS, NESDIS, EUMETSAT)►DB ATOVS data through GTS (CMA, KMA, BoM, EUMETSAT, …)►CSR data of GOES through GTS (NWS, NESDIS)►Image data of GOES and METEOSAT8 through GTS (NWS, NESDIS, BoM, EUMETSAT)
Thank you for your attention!
1500JST
Diurnal change of data coverage for MSM
Diurnal change of data coverage for MSM
2100JST
