Status and Plans for the RSA LAPS/MM5 Implementation – July 2005 John McGinley, Steve Albers, Ed Szoke, Dan Birkenheuer NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory

Status and Plans for the RSA LAPS/MM5 Status and Plans for the RSA LAPS/MM5 Implementation – July 2005Implementation – July 2005

John McGinley, Steve Albers*, Ed Szoke*, Dan Birkenheuer

NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory

*In collaboration with the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA),Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado

15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

OverviewOverview

Review of System DesignCase Studies - VerificationWork Accomplished Since 2004 TIMRecommended ScheduleIssuesDiscussion


System Design ReviewSystem Design Review

Basic requirements– New 24-h forecast every 6 hours– High spatial resolution (1 km objective)– Support launch weather operations and range safety

requirements for dispersion modeling– Integrate with display system (AWIPS)

Trades considered– Size of domain and nesting options– Forecast length vs. scale predictability– Computational resources vs. cost-benefit– Future upgrade path


Basic SolutionBasic Solution

LAPS coupled with MM5 NWP modelUse diabatic initialization (“hot start”)Utilize parallel code on Linux clusterIntegrate with AWIPS in a modular fashion


AWIPS IntegrationAWIPS Integration

AWIPSData Server AWIPS

Workstation

ModelingServer

NOAAPORT LDAD

LAPS Anal/Fcst Grids

Obs/Radar/Sat/NCEP


Hardware ConfigurationHardware Configuration Linux Cluster Modeling Server

– 1 master/8 compute nodes (18 processors)– Dual P-III 1GHz, 1GB RAM on each node– 60GB RAID array on front-end– Myrinet inter-connect

Interacts with AWIPS DS via NFS LAPS analyses and 2-h MM5 update forecast run on

master node 6-hourly MM5 and post-processing use compute nodes


LAPS Domain ConfigurationLAPS Domain Configuration Triple Nest Domain

– 97x97– 10.0/3.3/1.1 km x– 10km for Model Init– 3.3/1.1 for NowCasting

LAPS Runs – Hourly analyses– 41 Pressure levels– Runs at H+20 min– Available at H+30 min


RSA LAPS Data SourcesRSA LAPS Data Sources

National Data (NOAAPORT SBN Feed)– Eta (Grids 211, 212, and 215)– Regional narrowband WSR-88D reflectivity– GOES imagery (Vis, SWIR, 2 LWIR)– MDCARS– RAOBs– METARs/Ship Reports/Buoys– National Profiler Network



Sea Surface Temperature Data– NCEP internet FTP feed– GFS model



Local Data (via LDAD)– Local wideband WSR-88D (Z and Vr)– Local ASOS Observations– 50/915 MHz Wind Profilers– MiniSODAR Wind Profiles– RASS– Tower observations– AMPS Soundings– Local MM5 forecast grids


MM5 Forecast ModelMM5 Forecast Model

MM5 v3 used for RSA application– Upgraded to release 3.5 in June 2002– FSL modifications for diabatic initialization– FSL-developed runs scripts suitable for operations

Concurrent post-processing– Supports multiple output formats– Allows viewing on workstation as model runs– Hourly temporal output


MM5 Forecast ModelMM5 Forecast Model

Two configurations for RSA– “Update” run to provide first guess for LAPS

Used for “downscaling” national model Runs every hour out to 2 h on master node (serial) Initialized with national first guess (Eta forecast) and NCEP SST Domain 1 (10km) only Not displayed on AWIPS

– Forecast run used for operational forecasts Diabatically intialized with LAPS Runs every 6 hours Triple nest (10/3/1.1) with forecasts out to 24/12/9


MM5 Run ConfigurationMM5 Run Configuration(Development System Config)(Development System Config)

30-second timestep MRF PBL Scheme Explicit Schultz II microphysics on all domains 2-way feedback between nests Domain 1 initialized with LAPS (diabatic) Domains 2 and 3 interpolated from parent Lateral boundaries provided by NCEP Eta


0-3 h QPF Verification0-3 h QPF Verification

IHOP 0-3 h QPF Equitable Skill Score (Event Equalized) 158 Runs from 16 May-25 June 2002

30172 Obs/Forecast Pairs

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Precip Threshold (in)

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MM5 12km

MM5 12km RR

WRF 12km

Eta 12km

IHOP 0-3 h QPF Bias Score (Event Equalized)158 Runs from 16 May-25 Jun 2002


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MM5 12km RR

WRF 12km

Eta 12km





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MM5 12km

MM5 12km RR

WRF 12km

Eta 12km



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MM5 12km

MM5 12km RR

WRF 12km

Eta 12km





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MM5 12km

MM5 12km RR

WRF 12km

Eta 12km



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Fre

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MM5 12km

MM5 12km RR

WRF 12km

Eta 12km


JAX WRF QPF VerificationJAX WRF QPF Verification

0600 UTC +3, 6, and 9-h QPF Verification, 1 Oct 03 thru 4 May 04



Vertical Level ConfigurationVertical Level Configuration

41 Levels


LAPS-MM5 Production CycleLAPS-MM5 Production Cycle

National Model Forecast(Eta via SBN)

MM5 Update Cycle (10km)

1-h Forecast for First Guess

2-9 h Forecast for IC/LBC

10-km LAPS Analysis

3.3-km LAPS Analysis

1.1-km LAPS Analysis

Hourly CycleHourly Cycle

MM5 Forecast(Every 6 h) - 10km to 24h- 3.3 to 12h- 1.1 to 9h

Observations via SBN and

LDAD

Diabatic Init. Cond.

Lateral Boundary Conditions


MM5 Forecast Run TimelineMM5 Forecast Run Timeline

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Valid Hour

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Actual Hour

All 3 Domains (2.3:1 Ratio)

2 Domains (7.8:1 Ratio)

1 Domain (36:1 Ratio)

Run time based on:12 processors for model1 processor for each post job

Cape Canaveral 6-hour QPF on 1-km Grid and Radar VerificationCape Canaveral 6-hour QPF on 1-km Grid and Radar Verification9 Feb 049 Feb 04

RSA ExamplesRSA Examples

Eastern Range

June 8, 2005











Series of plots for 15z 10 km run, model reflectivity is heavy cyan contours, observed is image







15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, COAnalysis and beginning of the 21z/10 km run. Doesn’t get echoes to start.


15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO15z 3 km run





15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO15z 1 km run; at 1 km cells do develop faster






15 June 2005 RSA TIM – Boulder, CONext 2 are from 09z run. Seeing if it got the overnight land breeze line off the east coast.



Build HistoryBuild History

RSA LAPS/MM5 V1: Dec 2001– Initial installation at WR

RSA LAPS/MM5 V2: Aug 2002– Initial installation at ER

– Included “easy” install CD, provided to LMMS

RSA LAPS/MM5 V2.1: July 2003– Delivered to LMMS on CD

RSA LAPS/MM5 V2.2: July 2004– Delivered to LMMS on CD


Current StatusCurrent Status

Current RSA status– Fully adapted to AS 2.1 OS– Testing criteria delivered to LM– Model status

Improved Schultz microphysics Shallow Cu scheme


Current ActivitiesCurrent Activities

Current activities– Data failure test simulated at FSL

/data/fxa disk mount disabled for ~40 minutes Model forecast continued to run with degraded

analysis Analyses were interrupted, changes since made to

help prevent this


Next few month deliverablesNext few month deliverables

Deliverables (next few months)– New LAPS/MM5 build in July 2005

Accommodates AS 2.1/2.3 Deliver installation CD Test CD installation needed? (what procedure)?


Future DeliverablesFuture Deliverables

Future Deliverables– MM5 to WRF transition – New modeler on staff July 18, 2005


Deficiencies in Build V2.1Deficiencies in Build V2.1

Deficiencies:– TKE PBL schemes in MM5 under-predict

diurnal temperature range– Microphysics require saturation in cloudy grid

boxes


Accomplishments Since Accomplishments Since June 2004 TIMJune 2004 TIM

LAPS Analysis Improvements– QC flag codes 13-20 now interpreted

– Edit flag now checked for AMPS data

– Dense SODAR levels processing improved

– Met TOWER QC now applied



LAPS Analysis Improvements– Surface analysis parameters adjusted based on study

of Hurricane Charlie

– 3-D reflectivity mapping improved to minimize artifacts in high-resolution domains

– Moisture analysis component changes to use GOES gradient structure


LAPS Moisture Variational Step LAPS Moisture Variational Step now Relies on Satellite Gradientsnow Relies on Satellite Gradients

Other aspects of the moisture analysis have not changed

The International H2O Project identified problems with satellite derived product moisture – (too moist, or more specifically moist biased)

Two approaches are now underway to address this problem

– Correct the bias problem in the GOES moisture data

– Modify the analysis system to ignore this moisture bias by using moisture gradients from this source


The new approach is to utilize only The new approach is to utilize only satellite gradients in the analysissatellite gradients in the analysis

Old method New method

Better structureLess moist bias



MM5 Forecast Improvements– Implementing daily GFS SST analyses

Provides better forecasts than “pseudo-SST” Provides a first guess for LAPS SST analysis

– Added TKE diagnosis to post-processor Allows use of better MRF PBL while still meeting need for TKE field for

HYPACT integration

– Updated scripts for new OS (Nov 2004)– Implemented new Schultz II microphysics– Deactivated K-F cumulus parameterization



Verification Package– Surface observations vs. MM5 forecast– Requires MySQL database– Interactive query capability

Command line or web based User customization options

– Being set up on development system for 10-km MM5 grids

– Still testing interface scripts


Recommended ScheduleRecommended Schedule

Deliver LAPS/RSA v3.0 – July 2005– CD delivery to LMMS with installation scripts– Includes all changes discussed previously

Deliver LAPS/RSA v3.1 – Jan 2006?– Incorporate WRF forecast model– 30-minute analysis cycle– Adds AMPS ingest– improved verification package


Outstanding IssuesOutstanding Issues

FSL access to RTAMPS dataComplete real-time data preferable to partial archived

– Helps evaluate spatial distribution and QC performanceAnalysis bulls-eyes and QC

– Land/sea weighting functionNOAAPORT buoy data timing


Outstanding Issues (cont)Outstanding Issues (cont)

Additional SST testing

Ingest /Analysis of Soil sensor data

Interface to GOES Sounder on NOAAPORT?

30-min LAPS cycle


Narrowband / SoilNarrowband / Soil

Narrowband (Level-III) radar– AWIPS to LAPS NetCDF converter needs repair

Soil moisture– Overall Soil Moisture currently in Big File– Add other soil related fields?– What soil observations are at Ranges?

– Data formats?


VerificationVerification

Verification package– Can run on more powerful headnode

Requires another software package (MySQL) Web server running on headnode for interactive

displays Forecasters use web browser to access verification

info Product reliability monitor will be included


Model output to AMUModel output to AMU

Model output to AMU– Exportation of “bigfile” via ftp or LDAD– Multiple options possible

Should model grids be enlarged?– More computer power may be needed for this


SBN data limitationsSBN data limitations

SBN data limitations– Partially mitigated by use of NCEP SST– LMMS EDS project should fully mitigate


SummarySummary

July build on-track– Improved LAPS analysis with additional local

data and improved algorithms– Better forecasts from new microphysics, better

SST

Apache server installed for verification display at ranges

Continue planning for future

Discussion?Discussion?

Documents

Status and Plans for the RSA LAPS/MM5 Implementation – July 2005 John McGinley, Steve Albers*, Ed Szoke*, Dan Birkenheuer NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory

Status and Plans for the RSA LAPS/MM5 Implementation – July 2005 John McGinley, Steve Albers, Ed Szoke, Dan Birkenheuer NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory