Stapleton Enrollment Forecast 042413 Detailed Methodology

8/12/2019 Stapleton Enrollment Forecast 042413 Detailed Methodology

1/24

Stapleton Expansion

Forecasted Enrollment Growth & Capacitydetailed

view

Note: this is a very detailed explanation of how DPS and its community partnerscome up with forecasts of students we need to expect to serve in Stapleton in

future years

April 25, 2013

1


2/24


3/24

Context Setting: more than doubling capacity available in

Stapleton in next 2 years

3

* Note that added capacity figure is only newly constructed capacity and does not include capacity in Smiley

2,361

4,811

Current capacity in

Stapleton schools

Capacity by 2015, after

construction*

Seats

$86 Million of investment

2,550 seats

Eastbridge: 550 seats in 2014

Cons. Green: 1,000 seats in 2014

Northfield: 1,000 seats in 2015


4/24

Context setting: number of students living in Stapleton by year

This excludes students who attend out of district or a private school (about 13% of the total elementary students

in Stapleton). Includes students attending any DPS school

For reference, currently about 20% of Stapleton residents choice out of Westerly Creek, Roberts, and Swigert to

another DPS school 4

2573

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

October Count Enrollment

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Enrollment Growth Rate


5/24

Summary Methodology and Variables

5

Number of UnitsVariable

Data Source

1 2

Forest City

City of Denver Permits

Home Type

Single Family

Townhouse

Apartments

3

DPS Student Yield

per Home Type

2010 Census /

DPS Enrollment

4

Age of Student

2010 Census /

DPS Enrollment

Elementary

Middle

High

Forest City

City of Denver Permits


6/24

Unit Count: Development nearly finished south of I-70

The number of units sold North of I-70 depends on the housing market and the product type. We assume

400+ units sold each year going forward

The single biggest driver of DPS enrollment growth is single-family new home construction.

Recent estimates from Forest City (Feb 2013) indicate that the remaining units South will be sold in 2013

6

185

568 573

773

634

419

322

238195

226

300

205

0

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Single-Family Home Closures by Year: South of I-70

1

# Units

3 42

Red: units South of I-70total at build-out 5,800

Blue: units North of I-70total at build-out 5,000-6,000


7/24

Development finished and planned south of I-70

Type of unit count matters because the majority of the students are coming from single-family detached units

Unit types north of I-70 are projected to be similar to those south of I-70

Data source: residential units and sales from Forest City (updated Feb 2013)

7

Total Units South of I-70

(data from Forest City)

Residential Units

Type Closed To Sell Total

Single family 3,184 205 3,389

Multi-family 1,542 191 1,733

Apartments 493 0 493

Affordable 152 0 152

Total 5,371 396 5,767

2 3 41

59%30%

8%

3%

Single FamilyMulti-Family

Apartments

Affordable

Unit Type

1


8/24

Overview of the Yield Metric

8

2 3 41

Unit Type

1

No kids3 year old

Pregnant

No kids

2 year old

Pregnant

3rdGrader

1stGrader

6th Grader &

4thGrader in

Private School

3rdGrader

Kinder

No kids

5thGrader

2ndGrader

3 year old

Pregnant

Age # KidsCount in

Yield?

1 1 -

2 1 -

3 2 -

Pre-K 0 0

Kinder 1 1

1stGrader 1 1

2ndGrader 1 1

3rdGrader 2 2

4thGrader 1* 0

5thGrader 1 1

6thGrader 1* 0

1 year old

10 homes

If there are so many kids on our block, why is the DPS yield so low?

Only Pre-K 12 Students attending a DPS school count towards the yield

6 DPS students

= .60 Yield

* Private school does not count in DPS yield


9/24

Yields by Residential Unit Type

9

2

Yield

3 41

In planning seats, DPS projects Stapleton single-family yields 20-40% higher than Highlands Ranch and other

neighborhoods, which is an aggressive assumption

For Denver County the student yield for all residential units is 0.26, for Stapleton we are assuming up to three times

that yield

As of the last census, roughly 87% of Stapleton-area elementary children attended DPS schools, meaning that 13% of

students attended private school or another district. We have assumed 90% capture rates for the other developments

DPS-wide 84% attend a DPS school. In more affluent communities such as Cory Merrill, the capture rate across

grades is as low as 63%

Yield: Number of DPS students (Pre-K12) living per unit, regardless of which DPS school they attend

0.6

0.68

0.770.83

0.95

0.13 0.150.16

0.19 0.2

0.230.26 0.24 0.24 0.24

0.40.45

0.510.56

0.64

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

2009 2010 2011 2012 Peak

Single-Family Multi-Family Apartments All Types

0.710.78

0.750.81 0.79

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

Student Yields: All Closed Stapleton UnitsStapleton Development Comparable

Single Family Home Student Yields

.95 -1.14

.64-.76

Highlands Ranch


10/24

Indications that kinder yields from most mature filings

are peaking

Filing 2 (Aviator Pool area) and Filing 6 (Puddle Jumper Pool area) are the areas that ForestCity developed first and are typical of the unit mix of the rest of Stapleton.

Even at full build-out, 50% of single family homes in filing 2 do not have any kids in DPS

Affordable housing apartments have an average student yield of 0.61.

All data based on City of Denver permit data, DPS enrollment and Forest City filings

10

78 82

100

112

8895

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Total Kinder living in filings 2 and 6

Yields for the most mature filings are increasing at a

decreasing rate . . . . . . And Kinder students are peaking

2

Yield

3 41

0.670.76

0.850.90

0.140.19

0.16 0.17

0.390.46 0.49

0.54

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

2009 2010 2011 2012

Filings 2 and 6

Single-Family Multi_Family Apts All Home Types


11/24

240257

275295

253

260

216

179163

136

87 83

46 5663

42 4026

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350


12/24

240257

275 295253 260

216

179163

136

87 83

46 5663

42 4026

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350


13/24

Percentage of students by education level in

Stapleton compared to DPS averages (DPS data)Year ES MS HS

2008 78% 11% 11%

2009 79% 11% 10%

2010 77% 12% 11%

2011 77% 13% 10%

2012 75% 16% 10%

DPS Average 56% 20% 24%

How will the students move through the grades

going forward?

We expect the distribution of students within Stapleton to eventually realign to percentages

closer to the DPS averages.

The key question here is: how quickly will this happen? Will we see disproportionate

percentages of MS and HS students in the meantime?

In DPS we also tend to see a trend where we have more Kindergartners than 9thgraders in our

schools. There are two core reasons for this: More students attend non-DPS schools for middle and high school than elementary. The

district capture rates are: 86% in ES, 83% in MS, and 72% in HS

Families tend to move out by the time their students get to high school age. Most recent

data shows that 9thgrade classes are about 80-85% as big as Kinder classes, district-wide

The key question is: what will be the trend for Stapleton?

13

2

Grade

3 41


14/24

3 Behavioral scenarios were developed to project future enrollment; have planned for

Stapleton having significantly more students than other family-oriented developments

14

A

B

C

Assumed Family BehaviorsWhat you have to believe for this

scenario to play outImplications

- Every family with kindergartner

will stay living in Stapleton until

high school age

- Every family stays with DPS

- Every student wants Northfield HS

- , 60% more students than Highlands

Ranch and 80% more than Green Valley

Ranch

- Established trends where 9thgrade

classes are 80-85% of Kinder classes

are broken

- Peak demand near 2030 of

roughly 2,200 HS students

- Campus will contain 2,300

seats, so there is still adequate

capacity

- Above average (90%) number offamilies with Kindergartners stay

in Stapleton until HS age

- Every family stays with DPS

- Every student wants Northfield HS

- 40% more students than we are seeingfrom Highlands Ranch

- Peak demand in year 2030 ofroughly 1,700 students

- Peak demand from South

Stapleton in 2025 of 1,600

students

- Average (80%) number of families

with Kindergartners stay until HS

- Average # of families leave DPS by

high school

- Slightly more students than Highlands

Ranch

- Some families move out as their

students become HS age

- Expect to need to serve about

1,100 HS students at peak

demand

We believe scenario B likely overestimates the number of students that will need to be

served but is the most likely scenario to play out over time based on todays data

In all scenarios we: Assume 400+ home sales per year North of I-70 and similar though more accelerated build out than South Stapleton

Assume that in South Stapleton we will see about 300-350 Kindergartners after peak (2016 and on)


15/24

Peak Period Analysis: Scenario A

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

3 4 5 6

15

Age

2013DPS Population Snapshot

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

15 16 17 18Age


100% of Stapleton families remain

in the neighborhood with high

school-age children (DPS typical is

80% - 85%)

Northfield families move in withchildren that are 5+ years old

(roughly 400 students, aggressive

compared with South Stapleton)

100% of Stapleton families keep

their children in DPS schools

(average is 88% of families in DPS

for elementary stay for HS)

All neighborhood students wish to

attend Northfield HS (no students

choice to DSA, DSST, East, etc.)

BehavioralAssumptions

1,609 Students 2,235 Students

Every one of the four behavioral assumptions is without any precedent in the metro

area, making this scenario extremely unlikely

Even if every one of these assumptions happened, there is still adequate Northfield

capacity for the 2030 peak period


16/24

HS Enrollment Analysis: Current 3rd6thGraders

313

237198 196

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

3 4 5 6

16

Current Grade

2012 October Count

Stapleton Boundary Students*

944 Students

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

2015 2016 2017 2018

Phase I capacity

Potential High School

Enrollment Build

944 Students

Behavioral

Assumptions

All families remain living

in Stapleton and remain

with DPS

All students wish to

attend this high school

(no students want to

attend DSA, DSST, East,

etc.)

*Note that these boundary totals will notmatch current

enrollment at Stapleton schools, because those include

students from other neighborhoods that are choicing-in

Numbers include students in portion Stapleton boundary

West of Quebec and south of 23rd

.

Adequate Capacity?


17/24

243 277321

443519

638

798

941

1,1121,223

1,618

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500DPS HS Students in Stapleton; Northfield Capacity

Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C

Anticipated to have enough HS seats on the campus for all

students, even if all Stapleton students want to attend

Scenario A makes several extremely aggressive assumptions that have no precedent within the

entire metro area or any other developments with significant numbers of students. Even with these

assumptions in place, there are still enough Northfield seats

HS demand from South Stapleton peaks in 2025; The model assumes an aggressive build-out for

North Stapleton both in terms of units and the ages of children within those units. 17

1,000 seats

2,300 seats, planned

Peak: 1,795

Peak: 1,350

Peak: 2,235

Peak from South

Stapleton in about

2025


18/24

Closing Thought

Question: If I remain living in Stapleton, will my child

be guaranteed a seat at this high school, whether it is

5 years, 10 years, or 20 years from now?

18

Yes!


19/24

19

Appendix


20/24

Appendix: Where Stapleton residents are attending for

6thgrade next year

Only 58% of Stapleton residents chose their guaranteed

options of McAuliffe or Bill Roberts.

20

2 3 41


21/24

We believe that scenario B is the most likely,

though may be aggressive

21

2

Grade

3 41

4,465

4,105

3,700

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035

Total Students South


Note that the number of HS students from South Stapleton peaks in about 2025


22/24

Appendix: Putting North and South together

22

7,177

6,483

5,710

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035

Total Students North & South, forecast



23/24

23

Appendix: assumed sales and yield growth in North

Stapleton

YieldSFD SFA Apts Total

2013 100 0 350 450 0.20

2014 250 75 0 325 0.25

2015 450 100 0 550 0.30

2016 475 100 0 575 0.35

2017 475 100 0 575 0.40

2018 450 75 0 525 0.45

Total 2,200 450 350 3,000

Closings

Note: If Forest City develops the same number of apartment north of I-70 as south of I-70 we

can expect an additional 300 units. This would add approximately 50 additional students.

We are assuming that housing in North Stapleton will generate students faster than it did in

South Stapleton because Stapleton is much more of a known entity and schools are already

planned (e.g. year 1 (2013) yields North are similar to those seen in 2005 in Stapleton (2-3

years into development) We also assume very high weight towards elementary age students, mirroring what we saw in

South Stapleton


24/24

Peak Period Analysis: Scenario B

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

420

430

3 4 5 6

24

Age


340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

420

430

15 16 17 18

Age


90% of Stapleton families remain

in the neighborhood with high

school-age children (DPS typical is

80% - 85%)

Northfield families move in with

children that are 5+ years old

(rarely seen in Stapleton)

All current DPS students remain

DPS students (typically 10%-point

capture rate drop from ES to HS)

All neighborhood students wish to

attend Northfield HS (no students

choice to DSA, DSST, East, etc.)

Actions

1,609 Students 1,618 Students

* Roughly 400 South Stapleton students will leave DPS by high school, with 400 additional high school age

students coming from North Stapleton

Documents

Stapleton Enrollment Forecast 042413 Detailed Methodology